reference group member presentation
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Reference Group Member Presentation. 28, August , 2013. Presented by Feng Zhao. Introduction to Navigant. Navigant is a global consulting firm providing management consulting, economics, financial advisory, and disputes & investigations support. Energy Practice (390 Employees ). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
DI SPUTES & I NVEST I G ATI ONS • ECONO MI CS • F I NANCI AL ADVI SORY • MANAGEMENT CONSULT I NG
E N E R G Y
28, August, 2013
Reference Group MemberPresentation
Presented by Feng Zhao
2©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. E N E R G Y
Introduction to Navigant
Navigant is a global consulting firm providing management consulting, economics, financial advisory, and disputes & investigations support.
Navigant Consulting (2,850 Employees)
• Four business areas: management consulting, economics, financial advisory, and disputes & investigations
• Publicly traded since 1996 (NYSE: NCI)
• 2012 revenues = $845 million
• 35 offices in North America, Europe, and Asia
Renewable Energy(60 Employees)
Energy Practice (390 Employees)
• Power Systems, Markets and Pricing
• Emerging Technologies and Business Strategy
• Energy Efficiency & Demand Side Management
• Energy Efficiency Policy & Analysis
• Energy UK• Market
Intelligence
Professionals• 60 staff, many with
over 25 years experience in RE
• Exceptional depth and breadth of market & technology expertise
• Advanced degrees in engineering, law, and business
Global Practice• Over 200 RE
engagements world wide in last 3 yrs
• Public and private sector clients in 10+ countries
• 25% of clients are non-U.S.
Named "Best Advisory – Renewable Energy" in
the 9th and 10th Annual Environmental Finance
and Carbon Finance Market Surveys
3©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. E N E R G Y
Introduction to Navigant
We support utilities, project developers, manufacturers, and investors through the entire project life cycle.
Strategy Development Support
Operational Improvement
• Go-to-Market Strategy• Resource, Technology & Market Assessment• REC and Energy Forward Price Curves• Asset & Portfolio Modeling & Valuation• Business Model Development and Analysis•M&A Support• Policy Analysis
• Independent Engineer Review• Company/Technology Due Diligence • Transmission and Interconnection Analysis• Project Finance and Closing Support• RFP Review and Proposal Evaluations• PPA Negotiations
• Benchmarking - Performance and Cost• NERC Reporting • Post-Warranty Operations Strategy• Business Planning• Performance Bonus/Penalty Determination• Procurement & Contracting Best Practices
Project Life Cycle
4©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. E N E R G Y
BTM offers multiple wind market reports and is also active in global wind consulting.
Introduction to Navigant
» World Market Update: guided wind related investments for 18 years and have been called the independent "bible" for the wind energy industry. Provides a detailed overview and forecast of the global wind market.
» Supply Chain Assessment: focuses on each key component and material used in wind turbine manufacturing and examines the supply/demand relationship.
» Offshore Report: provides detail on the state of the offshore wind market.
5©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. E N E R G Y
BTM is forecasting that 55.7 GW of offshore wind will be installed in Europe in the next 10 years, concentrated in the U.K. & Germany.
[MW] 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022‘13-’2
2U.K. 1,150 750 650 1,000 2,000 2,500 3,250 4,000 3,750 3,500 22,550Denmark 400 - 200 100 300 284 348 285 - - 1917Netherlands
- 78 278 300 200 - 200 368 260 -1684
Germany 750 1,250 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,750 3,000 18550Ireland - 290 237 - - 527Belgium 111 216 165 - 400 433 145 119 - - 1589Sweden 48 - 86 150 320 567 348 474 463 215 2671Norway 3 - 10 24 - - 58 95 93 107 390France - - - 250 850 846 580 474 463 537 4000Finland 3 - - - 200 236 348 308 324 403 1822
Total 2,465 2,294 2,889 3,424 5,970 6,616 7,567 8,610 8,103 7,762 55,700Accumulated
7,256 9,550 12,439 15,863 21,833 28,449 36,016 44,626 52,729 60,491
European Offshore Wind Installations [MW]
Offshore Wind » Market Forecast
Validity of 150GW Offshore by 2030?
Unlikely! Need 2030 targets before such
ambitious targets can be expected.
6©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. E N E R G Y
Offshore Wind » Analysis of global offshore wind turbine suppliers
Source: BTM Consult- A Part of Navigant, March 2013
Road map of offshore wind turbine technology development 1991-2015
7©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. E N E R G Y
Offshore Wind » Balance of Supply
ItemConstraint Date
Segments Constrained
Supply vs. Demand Situation
CurrentExpect. 2014 – 2017
Expect. 2018 - 2022
Export Cables
2017
The situation for supply of export depends on whether XLPE can succeed for HVDC application.
For the projection period, it is expected that XLPE will pass the test period and become an alternative for MI cables.
● ● ●
Jack-up Vessels
2016
Main concern is >5MW projects and water depth >40m. Also limited experienced & skilled staff (note: competing with O&G industry).
During the forecast period, 3rd generation, tailor made jack-up vessels dedicated for the offshore wind industry are expected to come online, hence no constraint from 2018 onwards. Dependent upon the long-term policy stability.
● ● ●
Heavy Lift Vessels
2016
Europe doesn’t have dedicated HLV and must compete with offshore O&G.
Limited experienced & skilled staff (also competing with O&G industry).
Concern remains over both vessel and staff availability in the 2018-2022 period as decommissioning activities in North Sea are expected to increase.
● ● ●
Cable Laying Vessels
2015
Challenge due to limited vessel numbers and for projects >40m depth, DP requirement necessary.
Limited experienced & skilled staff (note: competing with O&G industry).
Investment in new cable laying vessels over the next 3-5 years is expected, thus alleviating the supply chain constraints in the prediction period.
● ● ●
Ports 2016
Policy certainty is required to secure enough investment, needed before offshore industry takes off.
Need enough ports adapted and dedicated to offshore wind instead of multi-purpose ports.
>50 EU ports capable of adaptation for offshore wind. If offshore wind grows as forecasted, further port-level investment is expected.
● ● ●
8©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. E N E R G Y
Offshore Wind » Selected offshore wind consulting tasks
KeyC O N T A C T S
©2010 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
KeyC O N T A C T S
©2010 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
KeyC O N T A C T S
©2010 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
KeyC O N T A C T S
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
9
E N E R G Y
Feng ZhaoAssociate Director Copenhagen, Denmark+4531135677 [email protected]
Birger MadsenDirectorCopenhagen, Denmark+4597325299 [email protected]
Per KrogsgaardDirectorCopenhagen, Denmark+4597325299 [email protected]
Bruce HamiltonDirectorCalifornia, USA+1 503 476 2711 [email protected]
Andy WicklessAssociate DirectorBoulder, USA+1 303 782 2464 [email protected]
Charlie BlockAssociate DirectorBoulder, USA+1 303 782 2540 [email protected]