record-high losses for weather disasters in the united states during the 1990s: how excessive and...

Natural Hazards18: 287–300, 1999.© 1999Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.

287

Record-High Losses for Weather Disasters in theUnited States During the 1990s: HowExcessive and Why?

STANLEY A. CHANGNON and DAVID CHANGNONChangnon Climatologist, 801 Buckthorn, Mahomet, IL 61853 U.S.A., e-mail: [email protected]

(Received: 17 March 1998; in final form: 22 December 1998)

Abstract. During 1990–1996 the United States experienced record-setting insured property lossesdue to numerous weather catastrophes, each event causing $100 million or more in losses (1991dollars). The total loss in this 7-year period, after adjustment to inflation and other factors, was $39.65billion with $15 billion coming from one event, Hurricane Andrew. In the 1990s, 72 catastrophesoccurred, half of the total number in the 40 preceding years, 1950–1989. Although the total lossand the number of catastrophes were exceptionally high in the 1990s, the average loss per eventwas $551 million, only slightly more than the $467 million average for catastrophes during 1950–1989. Furthermore, storm intensities in the 1990s were slightly less than those during the preceding40 years, revealing the excess losses of the 1990s to be a result of an extremely large number ofdamaging storms causing losses exceeding $100 million. Examination of historical values of mostweather extremes including hurricanes, floods, and tornadoes, did not show an increase during the1990s, revealing that weather changes were not the principal cause of more catastrophes. Examina-tion of recent demographic shifts in the U.S. reveals two changes, each based on major re-locations tohigher-valued property concentrated in areas either with a high frequency of damaging storms (Gulfand East Coast), or to where even a small but intense storm can cause huge losses (urban areas andWest Coast). These shifts, plus the continuing growth of population in other storm-prone areas havegreatly increased society’s vulnerability to storm damage. An in-depth analysis of many conditionswas required to establish that the high losses and numerous catastrophes of the 1990s were largelythe result of societal changes and not major weather changes.

Key words: weather catastrophes, insurance, insured losses, societal change, weather shifts, U.S.A.

1. Introduction

During the 1990–1996 period the U.S. experienced record-high insured propertylosses caused by severe weather events. Insured losses in the U.S. typically rep-resent between 60 and 70 percent of the total national losses from weather hazards(Changnonet al.,1997). The time distribution of losses, as caused by weather cata-strophes causing $100 million or more (adjusted to 1991 dollars) in insured prop-erty losses since 1949 (Figure 1), reveals that nearly $30 billion in losses occurredduring 1990–1994, the highest 5-year value of the 45-year period (1950–1994).

288 STANLEY A. CHANGNON AND DAVID CHANGNON

Figure 1. The insured property losses caused by catastrophes, each causing $100 million ormore in losses, for 5-year periods during 1950–1994.

Various characteristics of the catastrophes during the 1990–1996 period werecompared with those in the 40-year period ending in 1989 to develop a perspectiveon all facets of the recent losses and their causes. The spatial and temporal char-acteristics of U.S. weather catastrophes causing>$100 million in insured lossesduring the 1950–1989 period had been assessed in an earlier study (Changnon andChangnon, 1992), and provided a useful basis for examining the various dimen-sions of the recent losses and for assessing them in light of prior values.

The U.S. property-casualty insurance industry since 1949, has identified theincidence of catastrophes defined as events causing $5 million or more in insuredlosses. The continuing changes in insured conditions including the value, location,and density of property at risk, plus the ever shifting dollar value due to inflation,necessitate adjustment of past loss values to a common base in order to make avalid historical comparison of catastrophic losses. Changnon and Changnon (1998)evaluated an insurance firm’s procedure for adjusting the catastrophe losses overtime, and found that the procedure effectively handled many of the time-relatedchanges affecting insured loss. The historical loss values for 1949–1990 had beenadjusted to the 1991 base and these adjusted values were used in this study, as wellas in the earlier study of the 1950–1989 catastrophes (Changnon and Changnon,1992). The catastrophic losses for 1992 to 1996 were adjusted to the 1991 values byaccounting for growth in inflation and wealth, making 1991 dollar values the basefor this comparative analyses. For example, the loss values of 1992 catastropheswere reduced by 3.2% to account for growth in inflation and wealth from 1991 and

RECORD-HIGH LOSSES FOR WEATHER DISASTERS IN THE UNITED STATES 289

for shifts in insurance coverage; thus aligning the 1992 loss values with those for1991.

This study focused on those catastrophes causing $100 million or more in losses,the level used in the previous study of the 1950–1989 data. Although the cata-strophes causing>$100 million (1991 dollars) represent only 30 percent of allcatastrophes during the 1990–1996 period, their losses accounted for 83 percentof the total loss produced by all 240 catastrophes experienced during this 7-yearperiod. This study also sought to illustrate issues related to data assessment andadjustment, as well as analytical approaches of historical data to provide guidanceto those who seek to assess the temporal fluctuations in losses due to weatherhazards for any locale.

2. Assessment of Catastrophe Characteristics

2.1. FREQUENCY

The 1990–1996 frequency of the catastrophes is shown in Table I. The 7-year aver-age number of catastrophes causing>$100 million was 10.3, a value that tested assignificantly higher (at the 1 percent level) than the average of 3.6 catastrophes peryear for the 1950–1989 period. The 1990–1996 period had 72 catastrophes, slightlymore than half the 142 catastrophes in the prior 40-year period. If the 1950–1989average had been maintained in the 1990s, the 1990–1996 total would have been25 catastrophes, not the 72 recorded. The temporal distribution of the number ofcatastrophes from 1949 to 1996 (Figure 2) reveals a steady increase in catastrophessince the 1970s going from none in 1976 to 15 in 1996. The distribution also showsthat catastrophes were relatively frequent during the mid-1950s, as were losses (seeFigure 1).

The frequency of>$100 million catastrophes during 1990–1996 was also ana-lyzed by the type of storm conditions causing the events. The 1990–1996 annualaverage number caused by thunderstorms (tornadoes, hail, high winds, lightning,and/or heavy rains) was 6.7 per year (versus 2.3 per year in 1950–1989), 1.7 peryear for winter storms (0.36 earlier), 1.0 for hurricanes (0.76 earlier), and 0.9 forwind storms (0.17 earlier). The greatest relative differences were for wind storms(5.3 times higher) and winter storms (4.7 times higher), with little difference in thehurricane values. The differences between the 1950–1989 values and the 1990–1996 values were tested for statistical significance, and all the storm conditions,except for the hurricanes, tested as significantly different at the 1 percent level.

Table I also presents values of catastrophes defined at a much higher loss level,those causing more than $1 billion in losses (1991 dollars). The five $1 billionevents during 1990–1996 caused 45 percent of the total loss produced by the 240catastrophes during the 7-year period, reflecting on their economic importance. Asshown in Figure 3, the number of these extremely damaging catastrophes did notexhibit an unusual increase in the 1990s. Five such catastrophes occurred in the


Table I. Weather catastrophes during 1990–1996

Number of catastrophes Losses by Causes of catastrophes

Year >$100 million >$1 billion catastrophes1 Thunder2 Winter3 Hurricane Wind

1990 8 0 $1.898 7 1 0 0

1991 7 0 $1.645 5 1 1 0

1992 11 2 $20.361 8 1 2 0

1993 9 1 $3.045 6 2 0 1

1994 9 0 $2.739 4 4 0 1

1995 13 1 $5.161 8 0 2 3

1996 15 1 $4.803 9 3 2 1

Average/year 10.3 0.7 $5.665 6.7 1.7 1.0 0.9

1 Losses in billions of dollars by catastrophes each causing losses>$100 million.2 Loss by thunderstorm conditions: hail, lightning, tornadoes, high winds, and heavy rains.3 Winter storms.

Figure 2. The annual number of catastrophes causing $100 million or more in insured lossesduring 1949–1996.


Figure 3. The annual number of catastrophes causing $1 billion or more in insured lossesduring 1949–1996.

seven years of the 1990s, a value matched by six>$1 billion events in the sixyears beginning in 1949, and by the five events during 1959–1965.

2.2. MAGNITUDE OF LOSSES IN DOLLARS

In 1992 Hurricane Andrew caused enormous insured losses with an adjusted valueof $15.115 billion, representing a singular event and the nation’s worst weatherdisaster (Pielke, 1995). Its loss was 38 percent of the 7-year loss total of $47.5billion (1991 dollars) caused by all 240 catastrophes during the 1990s. The excep-tionally high loss value of Hurricane Andrew influenced the 1990–1996 averageloss value, and by excluding it from the 7-year total, the resulting 1990–1996average would have been $3.543 billion per year, not the $5.665 billion shownin Table I. The 1950–1989 annual loss value from catastrophes causing>$100million was $1.7 billion (1991 dollars), much less than the 1990–1996 value withor without Andrew’s losses included. Thus, the 1990s experienced a major increasein the number of catastrophes and in the magnitude of the annual losses.

The top ten catastrophe losses during 1990–1996 are listed in Table II alongwith the top ten catastrophe losses during the 1950–1989 period. Comparison ofthe two sets of values reveals the top two catastrophes of the 1990–1996 periodwould qualify for listing among the top ten events for the entire 1950–1996 period.


Table II. The top ten catastrophe losses during 1950–1989 and those during 1990–1996 andtheir insured losses

1950–1989 period 1990–1996 period

Rank Amount $ billions Cause Amount $ billion Cause

1 7.603 Hurricane 15.115 Hurricane

2 6.482 Winter storm 1.764 Hurricane

3 4.435 Hurricane 1.405 Winter storm



6 1.933 Hurricane 0.953 Thunderstorms


8 1.524 Hurricane 0.724 Winter storm


10 1.411 Thunderstorms 0.651 Thunderstorms

If the top ten most costly events had been randomly distributed during the 1949–1996 period, one would have expected 1 or 2 events in any 7-year period; hence,the 2 in 1990–1996 is not an unusual number. Furthermore, the magnitudes ofthe top six catastrophes of the 1950–1989 period are much greater than those for1990–1996, except for the record Hurricane Andrew value. This reveals, as didthe analysis of the>$1 billion catastrophes, that the magnitude of losses of the1990–1996 catastrophes were over $100 million but were seldom near record highlevels.

Hurricane-created losses dominate the major loss events. During the 1950–1996period there were 22 catastrophes causing>$1 billion in insured losses, and 18were due to hurricanes, 2 to thunderstorms, and 2 were the result of winter storms.The major losses during 1990–1996 resulted from hurricanes, as in the 1950–1989period, but as shown in Table II, the 1990–1996 period also had four major stormscaused by thunderstorms and two by winter storms. The top ten events before1990 had only one thunderstorm and one winter storm catastrophe, revealing somedifference in the conditions causing the costlier recent catastrophes.

The average insured loss per catastrophe (>$100 million) during 1990–1996was $551 million, larger than the average of $467 million per catastrophe duringthe 1950–1989 period. However, subtraction of the huge loss value from HurricaneAndrew from the 1990–1996 sample, creates an average loss per catastrophe of$417 million. This is $50 million less than the 1950–1989 average. This com-parison suggests that storms of the 1990s were, on average, no more damagingthan those of prior years. The question is, why were there so many more stormsqualifying for the>$100 million level in 1990–1996?


Figure 4. The annual intensity of catastrophes causing>$100 million in insured losses during1949–1996. Intensity was calculated as the annual losses from catastrophes divided by theannual number of catastrophes.

2.3. INTENSITY OF STORMS

An annual intensity value for catastrophes causing>$100 million in losses was de-termined by dividing the annual adjusted loss values (in 1991 dollars) by the annualnumber of catastrophes. The resulting monetary expressions of annual intensitiesappear in Figure 4, revealing isolated high values in 1950, 1954, 1965, 1969, and1992. These peaks were largely caused by major hurricane losses in these fiveyears. The 1950 and 1965 peaks exceed the 1992 peak, and the time distribution ofintensities for the 1949–1996 period does not show a recent increase in the 1990s(other than for 1992), and there is no long-term upward trend. The average annualintensity value for 1990–1996 without the 1992 peak value was $330 million, ascompared to $341 million in the preceding 40 years.

Catastrophe intensity did not increase in the 1990s, which means that actualstorm intensities most likely did not increase and did not cause the greater lossesof the 1990s. Importantly, the intensity results reveal that the 1990’s loss peak(Figure 1) and the 1990’s catastrophe frequency peak (Figure 2) were largely dueto more events qualifying as catastrophes causing>$100 million in losses, coupledwith the anomalously high loss caused by Hurricane Andrew.


2.4. AREAL EXTENT OF LOSSES

The catastrophe database lists those states where losses occurred, and these statefrequencies were used to approximate the areal extent of loss per catastrophe. Themedian number of states with losses per catastrophe had been determined for 5-year periods during the 1950–1989 period (Changnon and Changnon, 1992). Forexample, the 5-year median values for recent pentads were (1) 9 states with lossfor catastrophes in 1975–1979, (2) 7 states for those in 1980–1984, and (3) 6 statesfor catastrophes in 1985–1989. The median size for the 72 catastrophes during1990–1996 was 7 states, a value comparable to those in prior years. This indicatesthat the greater losses in the 1990s were not due to more widespread damages, orspatially larger storms. Since both the intensities and areal extent of catastrophesfor the 1990s were not significantly different than those values in the preceding 40years, this indicated that the high recent losses of the 1990s were due to factorsaffecting loss magnitude such as either more storms per unit time, and/or greatervulnerability to storm damage per unit area.

2.5. GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF LOSSES

Another factor related to the anomalously high losses of the 1990s was the locationof the losses. That is, were there more storms in areas more vulnerable to damage?To assess this possibility, the frequency of catastrophes causing>$100 million inlosses during 1990–1996 in each of the nation’s nine major climatic zones (plusHawaii and Alaska), was compared to that for the 1950–1989 period. The regionalvalues for the six top-ranked regions, based on the incidence of catastrophes in bothperiods, are presented in Table III. In both periods, the areas of highest occurrenceof catastrophic storm losses in the U.S. occupied the eastern half of the nation.Furthermore, there was complete agreement in the position of the regional ranksfor the two periods, revealing no change in the prime areas of loss between periods.For example, the South ranked highest in both periods, and the values for the WestNorth Central region ranked sixth in both periods. Also shown in Table III arethe number of catastrophes that occurred totally within each region, the values inparenthesis, and comparison of these also shows their rank positions were alike forboth periods.

Figure 5 presents the catastrophe frequencies for both periods, plus the 1990–1996 value of each region expressed as a percent of the earlier 40-year value.Inspection of the percentage values reveals the recent incidences ranged from 40to 50 percent of the earlier values in the five climatic regions in the eastern halfof the U.S. However, the four westernmost regions had much higher percentages,66% to 120%, revealing the number of catastrophes during 1990–1996 in thesefour regions to be relatively much more frequent and much higher than thoseexperienced in the 1950–1989 period. For example, eight catastrophes causing>$100 million in losses had occurred in the California–Nevada region during the1950–1989 period, whereas the same number (8) occurred in the seven years of


Table III. Regional ranks based on the frequency of catastrophes in the six climaticregions having the greatest number of catastrophes causing>$100 million in insuredlosses during 1950–1989 and during 1990–1996

1950–1989 period 1990–1996 period

Number of Number of

Rank Region catastrophes1 Region catastrophes1

1 South 75 (33) South 42 (6)

2 Central 61 (15) Central 34 (3)

3 Southeast 47 (11) Southeast 27 (2)

4 Northeast 36 (7) Northeast 17 (2)

5 East N. Central 28 (3) East N. Central 14 (0)

6 West N. Central 16 (2) West N. Central 13 (0)

1 Values in parenthesis are those catastrophes with losses totally within that region.

the 1990s. It is noteworthy that the largest relative increases in types of storms,which were winter storms and wind storms (Table 1), were also the two primarydamage-producing catastrophes of the Far West. All of the catastrophes during the1990s affecting the West and Northwest climate regions were either wind or winterstorms. The big increase in catastrophes in the Southwest region was largely dueto thunderstorm and hailstorm events that created losses greater than $100 millionmost of which occurred in one state: Colorado.

In summary, the geographical results show that the 1990s had the same patternas to the areas of prime losses (the ranks in Table III) as did the 1950–1989 period.But, the geographical results showed a major recent increase in damaging eventsin the West Coast and Southwest. These are areas which have undergone sizableincreases in population, urban areas, and property values in recent years.

3. Potential Reasons for the Large Losses of the 1990s

The key question raised by the comparative results for 1990–1996 versus 1950–1989 is, why were there so many more catastrophes causing>$100 million inlosses during the 1990s? Results showed that the recent events were not moreintense, nor larger, nor did they have greater losses per event. Answers were soughtin available published findings coupled with the results of the comparative analysis.

3.1. POSSIBLE SHIFTS IN SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS

The increased losses could have resulted from more damaging storms during 1990–1996, and results from available studies addressing storm activity were assessed.Landseaet al. (1996) analyzed hurricane frequencies for North America for the1944 to 1994 period and found a general decrease with time and no increase in


Figure 5. Regional frequencies of catastrophes causing>$100 million in insured losses forthe 1990–1996 period and for the 1950–1989 period, and the 1990–1996 value expressed as apercent of the 1950–1989 value.

the 1990s. Lins and Slack (1997) analyzed flood frequencies and magnitudes overthe past 80 years across the U.S. and found no up trends nor increases in floodsin recent years. Gabriel and Changnon (1989) found a decline in the national fre-quency of thunderstorms for the 1960–1985 period, and a recent analysis showsno increase in the 1990s (Changnon, 1997). The frequency of tornado days in theU.S. since 1950s has varied between 175 and 200 days per year with no up trendto the 1990s (Grazulis, 1991), and the number of severe tornadoes has decreasedduring the 1990s (Golden, 1997). Analyses of the hailstorm frequencies for thenation revealed no national upward trend before or during the 1990s, althoughsome western regions including Colorado had up trends whereas most other areashad down trends (Changnon, 1997). Daviset al. (1993) reported a recent increasein the frequency of intense coastal storms along the East Coast. Changnon andChangnon (1996) found that the number of extratropical cyclones in the easternU.S. during 1949–1994 had a temporal distribution that was similar to the intensitydistribution exhibited by catastrophes (Figure 4) with cyclone frequencies explain-ing 49% of the variations in intensity. However, most damaging weather conditions(hurricanes, floods, thunderstorms, and tornadoes) did not exhibit any national orregional increase in incidence during the 1990s. Only coastal storms in the Eastand hailstorms in the West increased.


3.2. POSSIBLE SOCIETAL CHANGES AFFECTING STORM LOSSES

The nation’s population and property density have grown steadily over the past50 years, representing an ever increasing target for damaging storms. In the past30 years the U.S. has experienced three demographic shifts, each increasing thelikelihood of storm damages to insured property. Most important has been the largemove of the populace to the coastal areas of the South and East Coast (Cullitonetal., 1990) where thunderstorm and hurricane frequencies are the highest in thenation. From Texas to North Carolina there are 95 coastal counties and the numberwith populations>100,000 persons in 1950 was 15, growing to 21 in 1970, andto 37 in 1990 (Pielke, 1995). These coastal counties are now home to 40 millionpeople, 16 percent of the nation’s total population. From 1970 to 1990 the southeastAtlantic coastal areas had a 75 percent increase in population density as comparedto an increase nationally of 20 percent (Roth, 1996).

Another major demographic shift has involved movement to urban areas. In1960, 58 percent of the U.S. population resided in metropolitan areas, but by 1993this had grown to 79 percent of the total population. The 30-year growth in citieswith populations>1 million was from 39 percent in 1960 to 54 percent in 1990.These shifts to urban areas have created ever larger metropolitan areas with a highdensity of structures and vehicles where huge losses occur even when small-scaleyet intense storms occur. For example, Denver experienced $650 million in lossesfrom a 1990 hailstorm, and the Dallas – Ft. Worth metropolitan area had two 1995hailstorms that caused $1.1 billion in property damages (Changnon, 1997).

Thirdly, there has been a 50-year period of population movement to the South,Southwest, and Far West, often leading to the development of large areas withhigh-valued property, a factor likely underlying the increased incidence of costlycatastrophes in these regions during the 1990s. From 1980 to 1993, the rate ofpopulation growth in the Far West was 28 percent, that in South was 18 percent,and the national average was 12 percent.

The insurance industry has noted that their vulnerability to storm damages andthe higher recent losses have occurred as a result of these demographic shifts (Le-comte, 1994). The industry has realized that the increased losses are also due togenerally greater wealth and higher property values, especially in many storm-prone coastal and urban areas (Corning and Company, 1994; Conley, 1994). Theincreases in the value of insured residential property from 1980 to 1993 was 166percent, and commercial property values increased by 193 percent (Insurance Re-search Council, 1995). Studies of damages caused by Hurricane Andrew and otherrecent storms also revealed that considerable recent loss was due to poor construc-tion practices and the lack of enforcement of building codes in recent years (Roth,1996). Efforts to reduce losses from severe storms in the United States since the1950s have included improved storm forecasting, installations of local warningsystems, and in some instances, led to construction of more storm resistant build-ings. These endeavors have kept the loss of life due to storms from increasing over


Figure 6. The annual losses caused by catastrophes causing>$10 million in insured lossesnormalized by dividing annual losses by the annual U.S. population during the 1950–1996period. Values are dollars per person.

the past 45 years (Pielke, 1997), and have also acted to reduce some of the damageto property but the amount of any such reduction is unknown. Assessment of theHurricane Andrew losses in 1992 revealed that improper construction practicesaccounted for $4 billion of the insured losses of $15 billion (Roth, 1996). The Insti-tute for Business and Home Safety, serving the U.S. insurance industry, is workingwith government agencies and the construction industry to get improved construc-tion, better structural materials, and stronger building codes adopted (Changnonetal., 1999).

A recent study of the 1991–1994 weather losses, based on insurance data and as-sociated weather conditions, concluded that these various societal factors were theprime reason for ever increasing insured losses in the U.S. (Changnonet al., 1997).Figure 6 displays a graph from that study, showing that when the annual lossescaused by the 896 catastrophes (each causing>$10 million in losses) between1949 and 1994 were normalized to population values, by dividing the annual U.S.insured losses by annual U.S. population, a flat trend resulted. There is no peakin the 1990s when the record high losses existed (other than the 1992 peak dueto Hurricanes Andrew and Iniki). This diagram and the other findings means thatweather events in the 1949–1989 period were essentially comparable to those ofthe 1990s, but many pre-1990 storms did not cause sufficient damage to qualify as$100-million catastrophes.


4. Conclusions

Dramatic record-setting increases in the number of catastrophes causing>$100million in losses and in the amount of insured property loss occurred in the U.S.during the 1990s. However, there was no comparable increase in the frequencyof catastrophes causing>$1 billion in losses revealing that the most extreme lossevents had not increased. Catastrophes causing>$100 million in losses during the1990–1996 period did not exhibit significantly greater areal extent nor intensitiesthan those in prior years, indicating that the high catastrophe frequencies and thegreater losses of the 1990s were a result of more damaging storms and/or shifts insociety that had increased property vulnerability per unit area.

Assessments of most types of very damaging storm conditions such as hur-ricanes, tornadoes, and thunderstorms, did not reveal any increases in the 1990salthough coastal storm activity increased in the eastern part of the nation and hailin the High Plains. Assessment of the effects of growing population, demographicshifts, increasing property values, and poorer construction practices suggests thatthese ‘societal factors’ have collectively acted to make the U.S. ever more vul-nerable to damaging storms and are the principal reasons behind the record highnumber of catastrophes and associated losses of the 1990s. This agrees with find-ings of van der Vinket al.(1998) who assessed all natural disasters in the U.S. since1952 and concluded that upward temporal trends were due to increased societalvulnerability.

This assessment of U.S. weather hazards also reveals important lessons for con-ducting temporal analyses of natural hazards for any region. First and foremostis the need for systematically-collected long-term data reported in an unbiasedfashion. Second, is the need for careful adjustment of these data to adjust for factorslike changing monetary values and in this case, for changes in insurance programsand procedures, so as to derive a time-compatible database. A third importantlesson illustrated is that the interpretation to understand temporal fluctuations andtrends requires analysis of various characteristics of the hazards including theircosts (magnitude), their areal extent, their geographical placement, and in the caseof weather hazards, the types of weather condition causing the loss. Such analysisof all possible characteristics provides insight into the dimensions of the hazardsat a any given time, and allows for definition of the causes for their time fluctu-ations.Integral to hazard assessment involving weather events is the use of allieddata on storm frequency-intensity, allowing comparative assessments of storms andhazards. In this study of U.S. conditions, this comparison helped establish thatnumerous societal shifts, as opposed to shifts in weather events, caused much ofthe recent upsurge in catastrophic losses.

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by funding from the Electric Power Research Institute.The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do necessarily reflect theviews of the sponsors.


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