recent economic developments strong growth in exports so far in 2010
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Recent Economic Developments Strong growth in exports so far in 2010. Little change in standards for C&I loans to small firms over the past three months. Poor sales remain the single most important problem for small businesses. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Recent Economic Developments
Strong growth in exports so far in 2010.
Little change in standards for C&I loans to small firms over the past three months.
Poor sales remain the single most important problem for small businesses.
2
Exports of Goods and ServicesPercent change from year-level based on nominal values
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
10.8
4.3
13.610.6
13.4 13.511.5
16.9
-6.1-2.7
-14.6
U.S. Bureau of the Census
Based on January-April exports
Exports of goods and services rose 16.9 percent in January-April 2010 from their year-ago level, a significant rebound from the 2009 decline.
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Net Percentage of Domestic BanksTightening Standards for C&I Loans
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Loans to medium- and large-size firms
Loans to small firms (annual sales less than $50 million)
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices, Federal Reserve
The standards on C&I loans to small firms were roughly unchanged in April from their January level (solid blue line in the chart above).
In addition, a small net percentage of banks reported that demand for C&I loans from small firms weakened further over the past three months.
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Single Most Important ProblemFirst month of the quarter
80 85 90 95 00 05 100
10
20
30
40
0
10
20
30
40
Poor sales
Finance and interest rates
National Federation of Independent Business
Only four percent of owners report that finance and interest rates were their big problem at the start of the second quarter, according to the NFIB. Poor sales remained their single most important problem.
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Exports SupportAmerican Jobs
John TschetterOffice of the Chief Economist
Economics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. Department of Commerce
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Figure 1. Jobs Supported by Exports of Goods and ServicesMillions
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 20090
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
7.47.8
8.6 8.89.3 9.0 8.8
9.28.5
7.8 7.68.0 8.3
8.99.5
10.3
8.5
International Trade Research Report no. 1: Exports Support American Jobs
2009 is a preliminary estimate.
Exports supported a record 10.3 million jobs in 2008, accounting for 6.9 percent of total employment.
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Figure 7. Export-supported Jobs in 2008Percent of total export-supported jobs
Manufacturing
Prof., business services
Transport & warehousing
Wholesale trade
Financial activity
Agriculture
Information
Leisure and hospitality
Government
Retail trade
Other industries
0 10 20 30 40
3620
1110
64
33
21
4
Percentagessum to 100
International Trade Research Report no. 1: Exports Support American Jobs
More than half of the 10.3 million jobs supported by exports occurred in two industries: manufacturing and professional and business services
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Professional and business services share oftotal export-supported jobs
Manufacturing share of total export-supported jobs
International Trade Research Report no. 1: Exports Support American Jobs
Figure 8. Export-supported Jobs in Manufacturingand Professional and Business Services
Percent of total jobs supported by exports
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 20080
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
Manufacturing’s share of export-supported jobs has gone down modestly over time, while the professional and business services’ share has gone up.
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Figure 9. Shares of Industry Jobs Supported by Exports in 2008Percent of industry employment
Manufacturing
Transport & warehousing
Agriculture
Wholesale trade
Mining
Prof., business services
Information
Financial activity
Utilities
Average for all sectors
Leisure & hospitality
Other industries
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
27
23
19
17
11
11
10
7
7
6.9
2
1
* % of totalmanufacturingemployment
International Trade Research Report no. 1: Exports Support American Jobs
About 27% of the jobs in the manufacturing sector were supported by exports in 2008. Exports also accounted for a significant share of jobs in transportation and warehousing, agriculture, and wholesale trade.
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Figure 10. Export-supported Jobs in ManufacturingPercent of total manufacturing employment
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 20080
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
International Trade Research Report no. 1: Exports Support American Jobs
Export-supported share of total manufacturing jobs rose to a record level in 2008 from the 1993-2004 average of 20%.
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Two-thirds of the export-supported mfg. jobs in 2008 occurred directly in the final assembly of the exported good. The remaining one-third occurred indirectly in the production of material inputs.
These percentages were reversed for the export-supported jobs in the professional and business services industry.
Exports Support Jobs Directly and IndirectlyShare of export-supported jobs within mfg. and professional, etc. in 2008
Manufacturing jobssupported by exports
Professional and business servicesjobs supported by exports
0
20
40
60
80
100
68 percentsupported directly
32 percentsupported indirectly
18 percentsupported directly
82 percentsupported indirectly
International Trade Research Report no. 1: Exports Support American Jobs
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Researchers have used widely different forms of economic analyses to demonstrate the relationship between exports and jobs. This study uses input–output (IO) analysis to measure the links for 1993–2008.
These snapshots reflect average (sometimes labeled accounting) relationships. In IO analyses, if 10 percent of an industry output is exported, then 10 percent of the industry’s employment is attributed to exports. The averages tell us nothing about employment requirements for the first or last dollar of output.
Averages derived from IO analysis should not be used as proxies for change. They should not be used to estimate the net change in employment that might be supported by increases or decreases in totalexports, in the exports of selected products, or in the exports to selected countries or regions.
The report is available at:http://www.trade.gov/publications/pdfs/exports-support-american-jobs.pdf