recent developments in led manufacturing 2016 presentation by santosh kumar of yole developpement at...
TRANSCRIPT
From Technologies to MarketRECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN
LED MANUFACTURING
Santosh KUMAR
Senior Market & Technology Analyst
YOLE DÉVELOPPEMENT
2
• INTRODUCTIONTOYOLE DÉVELOPPEMENT AND LED ACTIVITIES
• LED MARKET OVERVIEW
• RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING
• 2015 STATUS OFTHE LED INDUSTRY (AND FUTURETRENDS)
• CONCLUSION
• APPENDIX - DETAILLED PRESENTATION OFYOLE DEVELOPPEMENT AND LED ACTIVITIES
AGENDA
4
FIELDS OF EXPERTISE
Our 30 analysts operate in the following areas.
MEMS &
Sensors
LED &
OLED
Compound
Semi.
Imaging Photonics
MedTech
Manufacturing
Advanced
Packaging
PV
Power
Electronics
5
FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES
Report collection
Already published -Yole Développement:
• Status of the LED Industry
• LED in Road and Street Lighting
• LED Front End ManufacturingTrends
• LED Front End Equipment Market trends
• GaN-on-SiTechnology and Market
• Phosphors and Quantum Dots
• LED Module Technologies
From System Plus Consulting:
• LED CoSim+
• Reverse Engineering / Reverse Costing reports
2016 Publication -To be published -Yole Développement :
• LED Phosphors IP Investigation
• OLED For Lighting
• Automotive Lighting
• LED Packaging
• Sapphire Market
• Thermal Management for LED and Power Electronics
• UV LED
• MicroDisplays and MicroLEDs
A collection of more than 15 reports on LED, OLED and Sapphire.
Our reports are unmatched in quality and technology depth and typically include:
• Technology trends and evolution: costs, barriers, roadmaps (…).
• Supply & value chain analysis: business models, relationships, value flows (…).
• In-depth analysis of applications and market drivers: challenges, inflection points (…).
• Market data ($, units, wafer starts…)
7
Packaged LED market represents a revenue of nearly $16.5M in 2015, it should continue to grow to a size of nearly $20.7M by 2020.
1st Cycle: LED industry growth came initially from the small display application.
2nd Cycle: LED industry was then driven forward by the LCD display application.
3rd Cycle: Starting from 2012, most companies have moved to the new “El Dorado” of the LED business: GeneralLighting, which represents the killer application for LEDs.
HISTORY OF LED INDUSTRY
1st cycle
2nd cycle
3rd cycle
Source: LED Phosphor and Quantum Dots Report - Yole Développement
8
UHD TV will require more LED (resolution, contrast, gamut).
Focus on Display Applications
MARKET TRENDS
• Opposing forces are driving the market in LCD backlight display applications.
• While backlight display applications are still expected to saturate in 2015, the decline will be slower than initiallyanticipated.
.
Source: LED Phosphor and Quantum Dots Report - Yole Développement
9
Smart lighting will provide a further boost to lighting applications.
We expect “planned obsolescence” to become part of the luminaire maker strategy in consumer application.
Focus on General Lighting Applications
MARKET TRENDS
• General lighting will drive LED demand.
• Strong penetration in outdoor and architectural lighting.
• Accelerating penetration in residential lighting.
• Better prospects than initially expected for LED as replacement of fluorescent tubes.
• Better prospects than expected in industrial lighting.
• Socket saturation won’t occur as fast as initially anticipated!
Models usually assumed that because of the long lifetime of LEDs, the market will saturate once the majority of thelight sockets have been converted. But:
• Actual lifetime is not as long as initially anticipated: 20,000-25,000 hours (or less) rather than 50,000 to 100,000hours (initially quoted by the industry).
• Smart lighting will trigger obsolescence in some markets.
• The availability of efficient, cheap and versatile light sources (LED) will increase the average consumption ofartificial light per capita.
Photo credit: Nasa
Source: LED Phosphor and Quantum Dots Report - Yole Développement
11
XX
Overview
LED CHIP / DEVICE / MODULE / SYSTEM MANUFACTURING
Substrate
SiC / Sapphire / Silicon / Bulk
GaN / Engineered substrates
LED epi-wafer Mesa LED, Flip Chip LED,
Vertical LED structures
LED dies-
on-wafer
LED dies
Front-end Level 0 - Epitaxy• Nucleation layer
• n-type layer
• Active layers (MQW)
• p-type layer
Back-End Level 0 - Packaging• Substrate separation & Bonding
• Die singulation
• Testing & Binning
LED systems and applications
Front-end Level 1 - Device Production• Inspection
• Masking / Lithography
• Etching
• Metallization / Contacts / Mirrors
Back-End level 1 - Packaging• Die Attach & Interconnections
• Phosphors
• Encapsulation & Optics
• Testing & Binning
Packaged LEDs
Module Packaging• Substrates (PCB)
• Encapsulation & Optics
• Heatsink
• Testing & Binning
LED modules
12
We expect sapphire to remain the dominant substrate in the LED industry for years to come.
Substrate Level - Alternative to Sapphire
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING
GaN-on-Si LEDs
• GaN-on-Si performance is catching up with sapphire. But the cost benefits are still not obvious.
• We would have believed that companies that are committed to the technology will eventually make it work BUTwith recent announcement of Toshiba to exit the white LED business, this statement is under questioning.
• Additionally, we are skeptical that it will deliver cost improvements vs. sapphire that would be significant enough totrigger a massive industry platform transition from sapphire to silicon substrate.
GaN-on-GaN LEDs
• Decrease of 4” GaN substrate price closer to the US$1800 mark could be a trigger point in term of cost ofownership to start promoting adoption of GaN-On-GaN. Companies committed to the technology will besuccessful in the various niches that benefit from high lumen density.
COST =
$
LUMEN
Manufacturing Efficiency
• Higher equipment throughput and
yields
• Economy of scale
LED Performance
• Higher efficiency (lumen/W)
• More light per chip (driving current)
GaN-on-Si LEDs→ Reduce component
cost
GaN-on-GaN LEDs→ Improve performance
by reducing the number
of packages per SystemSource: Sapphire Report- Yole Développement
13
LED industry isfacing severalchallenges andrequiresdevelopment ofnew devices if itis to thrive.
Chip & Package Level - Main Challenges (1/3)
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING
• Market dynamics have changed → While the industry is still recovering, Chinese LED manufacturers’ product qualityhas dramatically risen to a level where they are now real competitors to all players.
• As in several other semiconductor industries, cost reduction and performance have become main drivers for newdevice development.
• Three major challenges are ahead of the LED industry regarding General Lighting market.
• The response to these challenges will determine the future of LED lighting.
Cost Challenge
Color
Consistency
Efficacy
Challenge
• Smaller chip and package
• Low cost material
• Faster process to reduce Turn Around Time (TAT)
• New Phosphor technology (film, plate….), inducing
slower process (than wafer level coating)
• Larger chip and package
• High performance/cost material
SOLUTIONS
Conflict:
• Large chips vs. small
chips.
• Low cost material vs.
High performance
material
• (…)
Source: LED Packaging Report - Yole Développement
14
Focus on Cost Challenge:
• Lighting industry expects a large price decrease in LED lighting products.
• This will lead to a sharp cost increase (lm/$) of LED devices.
• New LED platform/technology have to be developed to fulfill these requirements.
Chip & Package Level - Main Challenges (2/3)
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING
Fixture
(2x2 panel)
Price reduction expected to be around “-30%”
between 2013 ($99) and 2015 ($65)
Lamp
(60W)
Price reduction expected to be around “-50%”
between 2013 ($13) and 2015 ($6.5)
To follow such expectations,
middle power LEDs should
increase lm/$ by a factor of
minimum x2 between 2013 (900
lm/$) and 2015 (2000 lm/$)
Source: Samsung
2010 2013 2015
MPL = Middle Power LED
Source: LED Packaging Report - Yole Développement
15
Focus on Efficacy Challenge:
• Efficacy of LED component has increased very rapidly.However, new technology needs to be developed to fulfilllm/W required by industrial roadmaps.
Focus on Color Consistency:
• General Lighting applications requires good colorconsistency. As of Q2-2015, all COB LED and some high-power LED offer MacAdam 3-step as a standard, however,this is not yet a standard for middle-power LEDs that areincreasingly used.
Chip & Package Level - Main Challenges (3/3)
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING
Source: Samsung
2010 2013 2015
Source: Samsung
Source: LED Packaging Report - Yole Développement
16
Flip Chip LED
• To increase lm/W (efficacy) and decrease $/lm (cost) of LED device, Flip Chip (FC) LED have been the first solution developedby manufacturers.
• FC LED offer efficiency equal to the one of vertical LED but at a lower cost. Also, short current path in FC LED decreases Vflower than that of traditional MESA LED, and thermal dissipation is better.
Chip Scale Package
• By mixing Flip Chip technology and historic evolutions / trends of semiconductor industry, Chip Scale Package (CSP) have alsoemerge in the LED industry. Such type of package offer high lm/$ (package-free structure with no plastic mold…), high lm/W(FC based platform) and tight color control (Phosphor film directly attached to flip-chip surface).
Chip & Package Level - Main Solutions Developed
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING
From traditional package to Chip Scale
Package (CSP)
Source: Samsung
Source: LED Packaging Report - Yole Développement
17
More and more packaged LED manufacturers moving to module level!
Module Level
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING
• Packaged LED manufacturers master LED binning strategy which represent a strong competitive advantage for LEDlighting module assembly.
• Process manufacturing variability creates multiple binning of LED parameters: Color control / Flux control / VFcontrol.
• Good binning strategy helps to select the LEDs for:
- Reaching the product specification. - Guarantying the supportability.
- Minimizing the stocks.
• Control of LED production allows to stabilize value at module level using variable LEDs.
LED
Full Proliferation
Color, flux and voltage
specification
Substrate
(size, material, connectivity version…)
ASSEMBLY LED LINE FOR LED MODULE
Binning
Tables
Pick &
PlaceReflow Control LED Module
Source: LED Module Report - Yole Développement
18
Initially driven by LEDification, lighting applications are now subject to Digitalization (i.e.: Smart Lighting).
System Level
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LED MANUFACTURING
Digitalization:Follow Moore Law
Improvement of Functionality
LEDification: Follow Haitz Law Improvement of Performance
Source: LED Module Report - Yole Développement
20
New relays of growth are required for LED manufacturers to survive!
Overview
2015 STATUS OF THE LED INDUSTRY
• General Lighting is no more a BLUE OCEAN due to strong price pressure and intense competition.
• As a consequence, most of the players of the industry are looking at new relay of growth and withdifferent strategies:
• Vertical integration What is beyond visible LED chip and package
Toward LED module and system levels.
• Product diversification / What is beyond visible LED.
Toward IR LED and UV LED devices.
• Activity diversification / What is beyond LED.
• Already looking at what is beyond visible LED (UV LED, IR LED…) and more globally, what is beyondLED (Power Electronics…).
21
UV LED market that represented only ~$20M in 2008 grew to~$90M in 2014, at a CAGR of 28.5%.
Focus on UV LED
FUTURE TRENDS
Source: UV LED Report - Yole Développement
23
LED chip (and package) manufacturing becoming more and more a commodity!
• Entry of Chinese players.
• LED reaching more and more limits in terms of performance.
General Lighting is no more a BLUE OCEAN for LED device business!
• Strong price pressure and intense competition.
• LED manufacturers already looking at what is beyond (UV LED, LED module…).
Vertical integration as a way to collect more value on the industrial chain!
• Standard LED lighting modules represent the main answer to SSL industry needs. Such modules are a basic ‘plug and play’component of the lighting system that allow new luminaires to be easily and rapidly introduced to the market. These modulessignificantly contribute to system performance, quality and safety, and represents a growing market.
Product diversification as another way to generate revenue!
• UV LED = Short term emerging market.
• IR LED = Middle term emerging market.
• As LEDs have totally modified the lighting industry landscape (i.e.: SSL chasm), Smart Lighting could also create a revolution inthe industry!
New components, new players, new expertise, new business models (…).
CONCLUSION
24
THANK YOU!
Contact for Additional Questions:Pars MUKISHBusiness Unit ManagerLED, OLED, Sapphire and [email protected]
From Technologies to Market
Presentation of Yole Développement
With Focus on LED, OLED and Sapphire
Activities
Corporate Presentation
From Technologies to Market
27
FIELDS OF EXPERTISE
Our 30analystsoperate in thefollowingareas.
MEMS &
Sensors
LED &
OLED
Compound
Semi.
Imaging Photonics
MedTech
Manufacturing
Advanced
Packaging
PV
Power
Electronics
28
4 BUSINESS MODELS
o Consulting and Analysis
• Market data & research, marketing analysis
• Technology analysis
• Strategy consulting
• Reverse engineering & costing
• Patent analysis
www.yole.fr
o Reports
• Market & Technology reports
• Patent Investigation and patent infringement riskanalysis
• Teardowns & Reverse Costing Analysis
• Cost Simulation Tool
www.i-Micronews.com/reports
o Financial services
• M&A (buying and selling)
• Due diligence
• Fundraising
• Maturation of companies
• IP portfolio management & optimization
www.yolefinance.com
Blu Morpho
o Media
• i-Micronews.com website
• @Micronews e-newsletter
• Technology magazines
• Communication & webcast services
• Events
www.i-Micronews.com
29
A GROUP OF COMPANIES
Market,
technology and
strategy
consulting
www.yole.fr
M&A operations
Due diligences
www.yolefinance.com
Fundraising
Maturation of companies
IP portfolio management & optimization
www.bmorpho.com
Manufacturing costs analysis
Teardown and reverse engineering
Cost simulation tools
www.systemplus.fr
IP analysis
Patent assessment
www.knowmade.fr
30
OUR GLOBAL ACTIVITY
Yole
JapanYole Inc.
Yole
Korea
40% of our business is
in EU countries
30% of our business is
in North America
30% of our business is
in Asia
31
SERVING THE ENTIRE SUPPLY CHAIN
Our analystsprovidemarketanalysis,technologyevaluation,and businessplan along theentire supplychain.
Integrators and
end-users
Device
makers
Suppliers: material,
equipment, OSAT,
foundries…
Financial investors,
R&D centers
32
CONTACT INFORMATION
o Consulting and Specific Analysis
• North America: Steve LaFerriere, Director of Northern America Business Development, Yole Inc.
Email: [email protected]
• Japan: Yutaka Katano, General Manager, Yole Japan & President, Yole K.K.
Email: [email protected]
• RoW: Jean-Christophe Eloy, President & CEO, Yole Développement
Email: [email protected]
o Report business
• North America: Steve LaFerriere, Director of Northern America Business Development, Yole Inc.
Email: [email protected]
• Europe: Fayçal El Khamassi, Headquarter Sales Coordination & Customer Service
Email: [email protected]
• Japan & Asia: Takashi Onozawa, Sales Asia & General Manager, Yole K.K.
Email: [email protected]
• Korea: Hailey Yang, Business Development Manager, Korean Office
Email: [email protected]
o Financial services
• Jean-Christophe Eloy, CEO & President
Email: [email protected]
o General
• Email: [email protected]
Follow us on
34
FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES
Yole is active throughout the value chain (LED and Sapphire activities)
We are activethroughoutthe valuechain: fromsubstrates tosystems! Andwe interactwith industrial/ R&D playersfrom eachlevel!
Substrate
SiC / Sapphire / Silicon /
Bulk GaN / Engineered
substrates
LED epi-
wafer
Mesa LED, Flip Chip LED,
Vertical LED structures
LED dies-
on-wafer
LED dies
Front-end Level 0 - Epitaxy• Nucleation layer
• n-type layer
• Active layers (MQW)
• p-type layer
Back-End Level 0 - Packaging• Substrate separation & Bonding
• Die singulation
• Testing & Binning
LED systems and applications
Front-end Level 1 - Device Production• Inspection
• Masking / Lithography
• Etching
• Metallization / Contacts / Mirrors
Back-End level 1 - Packaging• Die Attach & Interconnections
• Phosphors
• Encapsulation & Optics
• Testing & Binning
Packaged LEDs
Module Packaging• Substrates (PCB)
• Encapsulation & Optics
• Heatsink
• Testing & Binning
LED modules
35
FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES
Insights on Forecast Methodology
“What’s Behindthe Crystal Ball?”
Only analyststhat follow theindustry on adaily basis(troughinterviews anddevelopedmarket modelingtools based ondiscussions withkey players ofthe industry.
APPLICATION
Forecast of standard
product market volume
(unit)Ex.: Smartphone, TVs, lamps (…)
Definition of functions using
LEDsEx.: “Flash vs. Keypad” for
smartphone (…)
Definition of technical
requirementsEx.: Efficacy, size (…)
Definition of LED
penetration rate and
competitiveness with
alternative technologiesEx.: “OLED vs. LED” in smartphone
(…)
Forecast of LED market volume (unit)Split by application, power type (low vs. medium vs. high
power), package type (single vs. multi-die…) (… )
Definition of LED
ASPPer power type, packaged
type (…)
Forecast of LED market size ($)Split by application, power type, package type
(… )
Definition of manufacturing flows for
front-end and packaging (process,
technologies, materials, yields…)Split by application, power type, package type (…)
Forecast of LED manufacturing
equipment and material markets
(unit and $)Ex.: Phosphors, encapsulant, dicing equipment
Definition of LED die
surface (mm²)
Definition of substrate die surface (mm²)
and epiwafer volume (unit)Split by type of substrate (…)
Forecast of LED substrate
markets (unit and $)Split by type of substrate (…)
Definition of sale
levels of key
manufacturers ($)Ex: LED, packaging
materials, epitaxy
materials, manufacturing
equipment, MOCVD
reactor, substrate (…)
System Plus Consulting
expertise in reverse
costing / reverse
engineering
36
FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES
About Yole’s Analyst Team
A team basedon personshavingcomplementaryskills andexpertise.
Dr. Hong LIN - Market & Technology Analyst
Hong LIN holds a Ph-D in Physics and Chemistry of Materials from the University Pierre et Marie Curie (France). She
works as Market and Technology Analyst in the fields of Compound Semiconductors, Power Electronic and LED. She is also
responsible for investigation on China as being fluent in Chinese. Before joining Yole Développement, she has worked as R&D
Engineer (at Newstep Technologies SAS - France) and research scientist (at ONERA - French Aerospace lab).
Pars MUKISH - Business Unit Manager
Pars MUKISH holds a master degree in Materials Science & Polymers (ITECH - France) and a master degree in Innovation
& Technology Management (EM Lyon - France). Since 2015, Pars MUKISH has taken on responsibility for developing LED,
OLED and Sapphire activities as Business Unit Manager at Yole Développement. Previously, he has worked as Marketing
Analyst and Techno-Economic Analyst for several years at the CEA (French Research Center).
Dr. Eric VIREY - Senior Market & Technology Analyst
Eric VIREY holds a Ph-D in Optoelectronics from the National Polytechnic Institute of Grenoble (INPG - France). He
works as Market and Technology Analyst in the fields of Sapphire and LED. In the last 12 years, he has held various R&D,
engineering, manufacturing and marketing positions with Saint-Gobain. Most recently, he was Market Manager at Saint-Gobain
Crystals, in charge of Sapphire and Optoelectronic products.
Dr. Milan ROSINA - Senior Market & Technology Analyst
Milan ROSINA holds a Ph-D in Optoelectronics from the National Polytechnic Institute of Grenoble (INPG - France). He
works as Market and Technology Analyst in the fields of Energy Conversion, LED / OLED and Emerging Materials. Before
joining Yole Développement, he has worked as research scientist and project manager in PV, microelectronics and LED
industries. He has more than 15 year experience with prominent research institutions and a utility company.
37
FOCUS ON LED, OLED AND SAPPHIRE ACTIVITIES
Report collection
Already published -Yole Développement:
• Status of the LED Industry
• LED in Road and Street Lighting
• LED Front End ManufacturingTrends
• LED Front End Equipment Market trends
• GaN-on-SiTechnology and Market
• Phosphors and Quantum Dots
• LED Module Technologies
From System Plus Consulting:
• LED CoSim+
• Reverse Engineering / Reverse Costing reports
2016 Publication -To be published -Yole Développement :
• LED Phosphors IP Investigation
• OLED For Lighting
• Automotive Lighting
• LED Packaging
• Sapphire Market
• Thermal Management for LED and Power Electronics
• UV LED
• MicroDisplays and MicroLEDs
A collectionof more than15 reports onLED, OLEDand Sapphire.
Our reports are unmatched in quality and technology depth and typically include:
• Technology trends and evolution: costs, barriers, roadmaps (…).
• Supply & value chain analysis: business models, relationships, value flows (…).
• In-depth analysis of applications and market drivers: challenges, inflection points (…).
• Market data ($, units, wafer starts…)