recent demographic trends

LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009

Recent demographic trends

Jitka RychtaříkováCharles University in Prague, Faculty of ScienceDepartment of Demography and Geodemography

Albertov 6, 128 43 Praha 2, Czech Republic

tel.: 420 221 951 420 e-mail: [email protected]

Outline Recent fertility change and current fertility

patterns New phenomena: low fertility, postponement,

extramarital fertility Country classification based on current

fertility patterns Mortality change Population ageing as primarily the outcome

of fertility change Population prospects



In the past forty years the rate and character of fertility in Europe has

changed considerably.

The newly established model of fertility is historically unprecedented, as the small

number of live births is insufficient to secure even simple demographic

reproduction in the future.


Shift toward rare and late chilbearing

Profound fertility decline has occurred in Northern and Western European societies since the mid 1960s, was over by the end of the 1980s in Southern Europe, and has emerged since the beginning of the 1990s in Eastern Europe.

Late fertility starts being a common widely accepted pattern.


Variations in TFR over time in 30 European countries

simple reproduction

low fertility

lowest low fertility


Two country groups in 2007: just below replacement level and very low fertility

1,01,11,21,31,41,51,61,71,81,92,02,1Sl

ovak

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Lowest-low fertility

Low fertility


Low fertility trap: two critical tresholds

Low fertility: TFR less than 1,5 Lowest low fertility: TFR less than 1,3

P. McDonald (2005): it is much more difficult for a country to raise fertility when the total fertility rate has fallen below the critical level of 1,5 children per woman.

The situation becomes even more desperate when the lowest low fertility (below 1,3) is reached.


If we look back in history it is clear that the current European fertility patterns have little to do with

previous demographic development

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1960 1980 2007


The correlation coefficient between total fertility and relative GDP (EU27=1) was 0,513 in 2007.

This means that the richer the country within the EU, the more children it was possible to expect.

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Total fertility rate GDP (EU 27 = 1)


Fertility postponement a part of a postponement transition

Longer education Building a professional career Reliable contraception ART treatment „solving“ also problems

of postponed parenthood

Factors behind


Younger age does not more mean a higher fertility

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Mean age at first childbirth in 2005


Late parenthood (motherhood): miscellaneous impact on fertility levels

North and West of Europe: a higher age at the first childbearing does not imply low fertility levels.East and South of Europe show a „negative correlation“ between an increasing age of mothers and final low fertility levels, thus confirming a classical theory as regards the relationship between age at first childbirth and final fertility rate.


2006: Cumulative age-specific fertility rates; (country order according to TFR)

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-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35+


Another new phenomenon

Increase in extra-marital births

Accelerating in last decadesReflecting cultural settings


Extra-marital births per 100 births:uneven increase over time

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Variations in share of extramarital births over time in 30 European countries


An increase of extra-marital births does not mean a rising cohabitation as an alternative to family legalized

by marriage but more oftenmeans a lone motherhood

Countries with low nonmarital fertility ratios (Italy, Spain, Belgium) tend to have also low overall childhood exposure to single parenting. Parental cohabitation accounts for much nonmarital fertility in Northern Europe.P.Heuveline, J.T. Timberlake, F.F.Furstenberg: Shifting childrearing to single mothers: Results from 17 Western countries, Population and Development Review, 29, 2003, 1


A country classification according to current levels of TFR, mean age at

first chilbearing, and the percentage of extramarital births.

Three country groups and one outlier can be delimited.

Three most imortant recent changes: fertility decline, increase in mean age at first childbirth,

increase in the share of extra-marital births


TFR MAB1 Extramar

Total 1,51 27,43 33,80

28,50 42,08

Iceland 2,05 26,29 65,72

25,97 36,18

1,40 28,56 16,92

Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia

Belgium, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain, SwitzerlandDenmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands,

Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom

1,32

1,80


Cluster characteristics show puzzled fertility patterns

1. Group (Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia) shows the lowest low fertility level, the youngest age at first childbearing, and medium frequency of extramarital births.

2. Group (Belgium, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain, Switzerland) displays low fertility, the oldest age at first childbearing, and low proportion of extramarital births.

3. Group (Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom), experiences the highest fertility, high age at first childbirth, and a high share of nonmarital births.

Might this group represent forerunners of a suitable/sustainable fertility?

Traditional demographic correlations are violated: young age and low frequency of extra-marital births do no more correlate with

high fertility levels!


Cohort fertility of women born in 1980:Possible future prospects?

Fertility rates for older ages estimated by using the rates observed for previous generations

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CFR (completed fertility rate: birth cohort 1980)simple reproduction

lowest low fertility

low fertility


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TFR 2007TFR 2060

Is the expected TFR increase realistic in low fertility countries ?

Sorted according to 2060 Europop2008: Convergence scenario (convergence year 2150)

Current fertility and future prospects for Europe


Mortality change and its impact

Decrease at older age in all countries

Population 65+: pension system

Population 80+: health care system


Survival in EU27+(2): 2005

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MalesFemales

Life expectancy at age 65


Population aging (increase in the proportion of people age 65+ or 60+) is the most challenging phenomenon in the 21st century.

It is the outcome of the demographic transition from high to low levels of fertility and mortality.

The role of international migration in this process has been less important than that of fertility and mortality.

The older population itself is aging and the oldest-old (age 80+) represent the fastest growing age group.

Population aging is a historically unprecedented and likely irreversible phenomenon.

Population aging has implications on family composition and living arrangements, intergenerational transfers, pension system,

health care system, etc.


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2009 2060% age 65+

Sorted according to 2060 r = + 0,134

There is no correlation in the share of 65+ between 2009 and 2060


Fertility is the key factor as regards the future population ageing

Proportion of population aged 65 and over in 2050 is correlated with (based on EU27 countries):Total fertility rate (2005) -0,591**Population 65+ (2005) 0,454*Male life expectancy at 65 (2004) -0,004Female life expectancy at 65 (2004) -0,043

** Correlation is significant at the 0,01 level (2- tailed)* Correlation is significant at the 0,05 level (2-tailed)


Very low fertility levels if maintained will lead to rapid population loss and an extreme form of population ageing in individual countries.

The population is projected to become older in all EU member states, Norway and Switzerland.

The share of people age 65+ is currently between 12% (Cyprus) and 20% (Germany, Italy). However, the figure will at least double in all EU 27+2 countries.

In 2060, the share of people age 65+ is expected to reach a minimum of 24% (Luxembourg) and a maximum of 36% (Poland).

The oldest populations in 2060 will be: Poland (36.2), Slovakia (36.1), Romania (35.0), Lithuania (34.7), Latvia (34.4), Bulgaria (34.2).

The“youngest“ in 2060: Luxembourg (23.6), United Kingdom (24.7), Denmark (25.0)


The oldest and the poorest

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LuxembourgUnited Kingdom

DenmarkIreland

NorwayCyprusFrance

BelgiumSweden

NetherlandsSwitzerland

FinlandAustria

PortugalEstoniaGreece

HungaryGermany

MaltaItaly

SpainCzech Republic

SloveniaBulgaria

LatviaRomaniaLithuaniaSlovakia

Poland

2060 2009

Old-age dependency ratio (population at age of: 65+/20-64*100)

Sorted according to 2060


Factor 1 Factor 2Total fertility rate 0,762 0,021

Male life expectancy at birth 0,881 0,092Old-age dependency ratio 0,019 0,986

Crude rate of population change 0,816 -0,478Explained variability 51% 30%

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis

Living more and reproducing less: conditions in 2007-2008

Lower fertility, shorter survival, negative population change

Higher fertility, longer survival, positive population change

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DR

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2060Factor scores

Demographic continuum in 2060 for EU27+Norway+Switzerland

Lower fertility, shorter survival, negative

population change, and high OADR

Higher fertility, longer survival, positive

population change, and lower OADR

FactorTotal fertility rate 0,844

Male life expectancy at birth 0,807Old-age dependency ratio -0,970

Crude rate of population change 0,969Explained variability 81,10%

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis


Prospective age assigns ages to

people on the basis of their remaining

life expectancies in a reference year,

not on the number of years that they

have already lived.

With advances in health and life expectancy, the meaning of the number of years lived has changed.

Rethinking age and aging by Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov, Population Bulletin, Vol.63, No.4, 2008


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2060/2009

2035/2009

2015/2009

Change in total population over time

2015: natural increase will convert in natural decrease 2035: start of the population decline

Two turning points for EU27: 2015 and 2035


Between 2009 and 2015 (or 2035 or 2060), the largest population decline is expected in Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, and Romania.

The profound decrease will also be experienced by populations in Central Europe (Poland, Slovakia, Germany, Hungary, and the Czech Republic).

Misfortunate Eastern and Central Europe seems to reemerge

The previously high mortality in Eastern and Central Europe (with the exception of West Germany) will thus face

a new threat of depopulation, this time primarily due to a long-term low or lowest low fertility.


EU Old and New Members: keep being divided

The most substantial percentage decrease will be experienced by the populations

in the fresh newcomers (Bulgaria, Romania),

then Baltic States (Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania),

followed by Central Europe (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, and Hungary)


Can fertility be enhanced ?

The role of family policy

The role of ART


Two scenarios for the future numbers of children conceived with ART

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20252050

Projected numbers of ART infants

Assumptions: 2025 in each country 5% ART infants 2050 in each country 7% ART infants


Proposal I Building a society for all ages Enabling to have family at any age Reconciliation of work/education and

family Freedom of choice

One standard life pattern should be avoided

education-career-children


Proposal II

Access to ART treatment for people in need and at any age

Giving priority to policies slowing fertility ageing


Conclusions■Europe will remain the world’s oldest region into the 21st century.

■ In the process of population aging, fertility was and still remains the primary important driver while mortality starts gaining increased importance.

■Population aging may be seen as a human success story—the triumph of public health, medical advancements, and economic development.(Global Aging : The challenge of success by K.Kinsella and D.R. Phillips, Population Bulletin, Vol.60, No.1, 2005)

■However, in the future, countries of former Eastern Europe will accumulate all of the disadvantages:

Being the oldest, experiencing the lowest fertility, shorter life expectancy, and having the lowest GDP.


Thank you

recent demographic trends

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