realtors® confidence index, october 2012

7/30/2019 REALTORS Confidence Index, October 2012

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REALTORS CONFIDENCE INDEXReport and Market Outlook

October 2012 Edition

Based on Data Collected October 22 through November 5, 2012

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSResearch Department

Lawrence Yun, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist


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Table of Contents

SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................................. 3

Current Conditions: Major Indicators ...................................................................................................... 3

Market Outlook......................................................................................................................................... 5

I. Market Conditions .................................................................................................................................... 7

REALTORS Confidence Index Is Up in October .................................................................................. 7

Seventythree Percent of REALTORS Reported Constant or Higher Prices on Recent Transactions

Compared to a Year Ago .......................................................................................................................... 8

Eighty-seven Percent of Responding REALTORS Expect Constant or Higher Residential Prices in

the Next 12 Months................................................................................................................................... 9

Thirty-Two Percent of Houses Sold in One Month ................................................................................ 10

Median Days on Market at 71 Days........................................................................................................ 11

II. Buyer and Seller Characteristics ............................................................................................................ 14

Cash Sales: 29 Percent of Residential Sales .......................................................................................... 14

Buyers Due to Relocation/Job Changes: 13 Percent of Residential Market ........................................... 15

Residential Sales to Investors: 20 Percent of Residential Market.......................................................... 16

Second Home Purchases: 12 Percent of Residential Market .................................................................. 17

International Transactions: Two Percent of Residential Market ............................................................. 17

Thirty-seven Percent of Sales with Mortgages Had Down Payments of 20 Percent or More ............... 18

Fifty-one Percent of Responding REALTORS Report Rising Rents for Residential Properties......... 18III. Current Issues........................................................................................................................................ 19

Tight Credit Conditions and Slow Lending Process ............................................................................... 19

AppraisalsA Continuing Problem ....................................................................................................... 20

IV. Comments: Straight from the REALTORS ....................................................................................... 21

V. NAR Recent Articles ............................................................................................................................. 24

Americas Resiliency After Natural Disasters ........................................................................................ 24

Housing Starts, Mortage Purchase Applications..................................................................................... 26

Appendix. RCI Historical Data ................................................................................................................... 27


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SUMMARY

Jed Smith and Gay Cororaton

TheREALTORS Confidence Index (RCI) report provides monthly informationpertaining to expectations about overall market conditions, buyer/seller traffic, price, buyer

profiles, and issues affecting real estate. The October edition is based on responses of about3,000 REALTORS to a survey conducted during October 22 through November 5, 2012.1 Allreal estate is local: conditions in specific markets may vary from the overall national trendspresented in this report.

Executive Summary--Current Conditions: Major Indicators

The current confidence index for single family homes remains essentially unchanged at 53,indicating that more REALTORS view current conditions as above moderate (an index of50 means moderate expectations). Meanwhile, the index continues to rise for townhouses andcondominiums although the indexes are still below 50.

Many REALTORS expressed dissatisfaction about rigid bank conditions and long creditapproval process , extremely low inventory and multibidding, and lack of comparablesfor appraisals. The weak job market and policy uncertainty prior to the November electionswere also seen as factors that weighed down the market. REALTORS also commented onthe potential adverse effecst and uncertainties associated with the implementation of Dodd-Frank and on a variety of economic and tax issues.

1There were 3,003 respondents to the September survey, which was sent to approximately 50,000

REALTORS.


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The buyer traffic index slightly rose to 54 while the seller traffic index continued to drop to37 from a peak of 42 last year. Inventory has been generally tight, as REALTORS reportedthat sellers continue to hold back, waiting for prices to rise further or for better valuedappraisals.

The tight inventory of homes for sale has strengthened prices, with 73 percent ofREALTORS reporting constant or increasing prices compared to the same time a year ago,and 87 percent of REALTORS expecting constant or rising prices in the next 12 months.


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The median days on the market was at 71 days in October. Median days have hovered atthis level since the May. REALTORS continue to report about the long mortageprocess.

Market Outlook

The Six Month Outlook Confidence Index rose across all properties. The single familysales index is now at 58, reflecting above moderate market conditions. The six-Month OutlookConfidence Index for townhouses and condos also improved.


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NARs latest economic projection is for continued increases in residential home salesalong with continued price improvement (although sales and price trends will vary from marketto market). Existing home sales are projected to expand to 4.6 million in 2012 ( 5 million in2013). Housing starts are projected to rise to 776,000 in 2012 (1.12 million in 2013). Newhome sales are projected at 368,000 in 2012 ( 575,000 in 2013).

The median price for existing home sales is forecasted at $176,100 in 2012 ($185,200 in2013). Shadow inventory is still high, but it is about 1 million fewer homes than two years agoand is anticipated to steadily diminish over time. Decreases in months of inventory of homes forsale and a decline in percentages of existing home sales that are distressed are projected tocontinued market improvement.


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The forecast is based on an economy expected to grow at 2.1 percent in 2012 (2.5percent in 2013) and with 30-year mortgage rates at 3.7 percent (4.0 percent in 2013) .

Economic Uncertainties

The potentially adverse economic effects ofthe fiscal cliff(expiration of Bush tax cuts,mandated spending cuts, and increased taxes in the absence of legislative action) are bothpolitical and economic issues: potentially major economic impacts that are impossible toforecast.

Similarly, the slowdown in economic growth in the Euro countries and the possibility ofrecession in Europeare are major downside risks.

What Does This Mean For REALTORS?

The real estate market continues to recover both in terms of sales and price. Continuedrestrictive mortgage availability with tight underwriting standards is a problem, butREALTORS report that loans are frequently available at smaller banks and credit unions.

Making sure that appraisers are qualified and that appropriate comps are used are important.Finally, tight inventories are making markets increasingly competitive.

I. Market Conditions

REALTORS Confidence Index Is Up in October

The 6-month outlook confidence index is higher than the current confidence index across allproperties, indicating that REALTORS expect better times for at least the next 6 months. Thecurrent confidence index is essentially unchanged for single-family homes and is slightly up for

townhouses and condomiumiums.


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Seventythree Percent of REALTORS Reported Constant or Higher Prices on Recent

Transactions Compared to a Year Ago

Home prices continue to firm up as demand for existing home sales is reported to beincreasing faster than the supply of available homes. About 31 percent of REALTORS

reported constant home prices while 44 percent reported rising prices . As the graph belowshows, there are increasingly more REALTORS reporting rising prices compared to year agolevel since the March 2012 survey. Many REALTORS noted a significant increase in multi-bidding on properties, especially for lower priced houses .


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Eighty-seven Percent of Responding REALTORS Expect Constant or Higher Residential

Prices in the Next 12 Months

Eighty-seven percent of respondents reported the expectation of constant or higher pricesin the next year. The median expected price change in the next 12 months is 3.24 percent.


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Thirty-Two Percent of Houses Sold in One Month

Time on the market for a property to sell has been declining. Approximately a third ofREALTORS noted that recently sold properties were on the market for less than a month whensold, and 58 percent were sold within 3 months. The percentage of REALTORS reporting thatthe house sold had been on the market for 6 months or more is down to 20 percent from 28percent a year ago.


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Median Days on Market at 71 Days

The median days on market in October was 71 days, down from 102 days a year ago.Although the short sale process is still viewed as protracted, short sales were at a median 91 dayson market, significantly down from 124 days in the same period last year. Foreclosures were at57 median days on market in October, slightly down from 63 days last year.


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Distressed Sales Account for 25 Percent of Sales

About a quarter of respondents reported selling distressed property (foreclosed and shortsales), down substantially from what had been the case a year or two ago. Cash sales accountedfor roughly 41 percent of distressed sales (40 percent in September 2012).

Distressed Real EstateBelow Market Prices

Distressed properties typically sell below the market price of similar property in non-distressed condition. The level of discount fluctuates depending on sales location, type ofproperty, and property condition. Foreclosed property sold on the average at a 20 percentdiscount, while shortsale properties sold at a 14 percent average discount.


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Property Condition Affects the Selling Price of Distressed Properties

The discount to market experienced by distressed property is affected by the propertysphysical condition. Well maintained properties tend to sell at a lower discount than is the casefor properties in poor condition. The un-weighted average price discounts to market arepresented for the current survey month as well as the 12 month period from November 2011through October 2012. REALTOR respondents reported price discounts for distressed houseswith above average condition at about 1315 percent, and price discounts from 17-62 percentfor the properties in the poorest condition.


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II. Buyer and Seller Characteristics

Cash Sales: 29 Percent of Residential Sales

Approximately 29 percent of REALTORS reported making cash sales in October,

relatively unchanged since last year . REALTORS reported that cash buyers are primarilyinvestors and international buyers, edging first time home buyers needing to secure a mortgage.Only about 10 percent of first-time homebuyers pay cash.


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First Time Buyers: 31 Percent of Residential Buyers

Approximately 31 percent of responding REALTORS reported making a sale to firsttime home buyers (32 percent in September). Normally first time buyers are in the neighborhoodof 40 percent of total residential sales, according to NARs Profile of Home Buyers and Seller.

The proportion of first-time homebuyers hit a peak of approximately 50 percent in 2009. Mostfirst time buyers obtain a mortgage: About 10 percent of REALTORS who made a first timehome buyer sale reported a cash sale (compared to 11.4 percent in September).

The decrease in first time buyers from the typical 40 percent share in part reflects thedifficulty of securing mortgage financing, delays with distressed sales, and purchases of lowerpriced properties by investors. REALTORS have noted that that investors offering all-cashsales to sellers have crowded out first-time buyers in some cases, particularly in the case ofdistressed properties.

Buyers Due to Relocation/Job Changes: 13 Percent of Residential Market

REALTORS reported that 13 percent of residential sales were to buyers for relocationpurposes, i.e., a job move, retirement, etc. About 17 percent of REALTORS who made a saleto a relocation buyer reported a cash sale (unchanged from September).


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Residential Sales to Investors: 20 Percent of Residential Market

REALTORS reported that investors accounted for 20 percent of total residential salesin October (18 percent from September). Approximately 69 percent of respondents whoreported a sale to an investor reported a cash sale (compared to 74 percent in September ).


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Second Home Purchases: 12 Percent of Residential Market

Second home sales accounted for 12 percent of responses (same since August).Approximately 47 percent of second home sales were for cash (same as in September).

International Transactions: Two Percent of Residential Market

Approximately 1.9 percent of REALTORS reported sales of U.S. residential realestate to foreigners not residing in the U.S. Approximately 67 percent of respondents who

reported transactions with international clients reported cash sales (80 percent in September).


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Thirty-seven Percent of Sales with Mortgages Had Down Payments of 20 Percent or More

Approximately 36 percent of mortage sales involved a down payment of 20 percent ormore (compared to 35 percent in September). Down payments of 11-19 percent were at 5percent.

Fifty-one Percent of Responding REALTORS Report Rising Rents for Residential

Properties

Higher residential rents compared to a year ago were reported by 51 percent ofresponding REALTORS in October (57 percent in September) .


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III. Current Issues

Tight Credit Conditions and Slow Lending Process

One of the most frequent comments by REALTORS was a concern over unreasonably

tight credit conditions. Respondents indicated that credit conditions continue to be too tight,that lenders are taking too long in approving an application, and that information anddocumentation required by lenders is excessive. Respondents expressed frustration that somefinancial institutions appear to lend only to individuals with the highest levels of credit scores.

There appears to be an unnecessarily high level of risk aversion. In the 2001-04 timeframea time of normal residential real estate markets before the Great Recession--approximately 40percent of Fannie Maes and Freddie Macs loans went to applicants withcredit scores above 740. In contrast, REALTORS responding to theRCIsurvey indicated thatover 50 percent of loans went to borrowers with credit scores above 740 in September, includingFannie, Freddie, and other lenders. In the case of Fannie and Freddiewhich are now a smaller

part of the marketin 2011 approximately 75 percent of loans had credit scores of 740 andabove.

Estimates by NAR economists have indicated that an additional 500,000 to 700,000additional sales could be made if credit conditions returned to normal. This increased level ofsales activity could generate an additional 250-350 thousand additional jobs on an annual basis,because existing home sales generate jobs across a wide spectrum of the economyi.e.,attorneys, painters, plumbers, landscapers, title companies, furniture manufacturers, etc. Theseare jobs that could be generated at no cost and almost immediately.


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The meaning for REALTORS is clear: In many cases lenders are not making loans topotential buyers with less than perfect credit scores. A potential home buyer who is rejectedby one bank or financial institution should try, try, try again at a different financialinstitution. Rejection of a loan application may be more indicative of the financial state of thelending institution than of the applicants credit worthiness. There are a variety of potential

lending sources in addition to large banks and mortgage brokers. For example, a number ofREALTORS noted that regional and community banks and credit unions could be goodpotential alternative sources of mortgages.

AppraisalsA Continuing Problem

Appraisals continued to be a problem in moving transactions to closure. ManyREALTORS expressed frustration that reported appraisal values are not keeping pace with theappreciation in market values. In some cases REALTORS reported that appraisers were usingforeclosures as compswhich they clearly are not. REALTORS also reported encounters without-of-town appraisers who have little knowledge of the neighborhood/local conditions.REALTORS also expressed frustration at the slow turn around time from appraisers and

appraisal requirements that are an uncessary expense on the buyer.

Thirty-four percent of REALTORS reported having had a problem with an appraisal inthe past 3 months (35 percent in September). Approximately 10 percent of the respondentsreported that appraisal problems led to contract cancellation; 10 percent reported a delay as aresult of an appraisal problem, and 14 percent reported that the appraisal problems led to lowerprices.


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IV. Comments: Straight from the REALTORSJed Smith, Manager, Quantitative Research

REALTORS mentioned low inventories of available homes for sale, tight financing

conditions, slow approval processes, appraisal issues, and uncertain economic conditions asimpacting the housing markets.

1. Low Inventory/multiple biddingInventory remains very tight, resulting in multi-bidding in some cases. REOs do not appear to becoming sufficiently to meet demand, while sellers are also waiting for prices to pick up further.Listings for properties that are in good condition receive multiple offers. Investors are snappingup REOs, paying cash. Here are few direct quotes:

I feel that the price of housing is going up due to the lack of inventory that is available,once the banks start releasing more property's I feel that it will become a more stable

market and the bidding war will end!!

Inventory still down, sellers waiting for prices to go up if they can; rental market is wayup, prices too.

Buyers want properties in A1 condition. Investors are out there & will do the work to

get property in A1 condition but only at a rock bottom price.

Foreign investors focused on foreclosures make up most of our potential buyers.

All entry level single family homes are multiple offer. Many homes are sold to investors

prior to reaching the MLS, then within hours of listing on the MLS, it changes from active

to under contract.

2. Tight Financing/creditAccess to financing remains tight, so cash buyers, who are typically investors, are winning

the bids against first-time homebuyers. There are reports that banks are asking for higher creditscores, with a report of a bank rejecting a score of as high as 800. It also appears that self-employment can be a problem in obtaining a mortgage. The mortgage application processcontinues to be deemed as too drawn out to the point of thwarting or jeopardizing the sale. Thereis also lack of assistance for helping current homeowners who are slightly delinquent to modifykeep their homes.


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Banks are ignoring settlement dates and can't even give you a reason for a delay. There

is no accountability on their end of the transaction. Three settlements in October were

delayed due to lender issues.

1st time buyers finding it difficult to qualify for loans

I had two buyers with over 800 credit score and the bank would not loan. They ended up

paying cash and looking for a loan after the closing.

The lack of assistance from the mortgage companies for helping current home ownersmodifying their loan due to being underwater or slight delinquency to help them stay in

their homes!!!!

Cash buyers are winning bids. FHA buyers hardly have a chance.

Concerned about purchases by investor groups - hundreds of homes purchased from

Fannie/Freddie - basically no information forthcoming regarding this - concerned about

what effect this will have long term in our area - are we going to have no "real" home

owners for years to come? Not a good plan - list with realtors, to be purchased by home

owner.

3. Appraisal issuesUnrealistically low appraisal values continue to jeopardize sales. Appraisal values are in

some cases affected by REOs which are used as comparable properties. Also, there continue tobe reports of appraisers as having poor knowledge of local conditions as they come from outsideareas ( as far as 100 miles according to one REALTOR).

Appraisals and BPO values are likely low because of the sort of comps that areavailable on the market. REO properties and lower value sales comprise the bulk of

market activity which in turn leads to low appraisal and BPO values.

Appraisals are definitely a problem. We are in a Vacation, second home area and weare getting appraisers from 100's of miles away to appraise Lake Property. They don't

understand the values.

Buyers are coming in with cash to close the gap between low appraisals and sellers sticking

to their house price.


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4. Weak economy and policy uncertaintyThe weak job market continues to be a drag , given the dependence of credit scores onemployment conditions. Policies that are seen to adversely affect the real estate market next yearare the fiscal cliff and associated taxes and policies, and potentially regulations from the

implementation of Dodd-Frank.

Job loss is still causing even the recent HARP homes to now start showing up in short

sale and foreclosure market.

Concerned with new Obama tax on sale of real estate. His new 3.5percent tax wasslipped in under the guise Of the Obama care health bill.

The fear of sequestration is very real in Northern Virginia.

The Dodd-Frank bill is causing chaos with buyers and sellers. Something has got to

change!


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V. NAR Recent Articles

Americas Resiliency After Natural DisastersLawrence Yun, Chief Economist

After Superstorm Sandy, one thing is assured: the impacted regions will rebuild, create jobs, andbecome stronger. That has always been the American way.

The U.S. housing market peaked in 2005 and then started to fall steeply. However, New Orleanswas one of the very few markets with rising housing starts in 2006 and 2007 because of the needto rebuild after Hurricane Katrina. Although a tragic occurrence jobs were created as a result,albeit off of low levels after nearly one million people had left the area in the days after theKatrina disaster. Over time New Orleans eventually succumbed to the broader national trends ofeconomic recession and the subprime mortgage crisis. But the immediate years after Hurricane

Katrina were growth years.

Similarly, tornadoes devastated Joplin, Missouri last year. The silver lining of that devastation isthat today, there are more jobs in Joplin (80,900 payroll jobs) than before the tornado hit(79,500) from the need to rebuild the community.

Given what appears to be no sizable permanent relocation of people from Sandy, unlike the casein New Orleans and more like the case of Joplin, the Mid-Atlantic impacted region is more likelyto get back on their feet sooner. The need to rebuild will help create new jobs in the process.
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/files/2012/10/Capture16.jpg


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Housing Starts, Mortage Purchase Applications

Ken Fears, Manager, Regional Economics

There were two positive news releases for the housing market this morning; housing startswere up along with purchase applications for mortgages.

Single-family starts rose 11.0 in September over the August figure and 42.3% higher than ayear ago. The August number was also revised upward and permits for new construction ofsingle-family units rose 7.6% in September.

The single family construction numbers are a positive sign for the market as they suggest thathomebuilders feel confident in low inventories and are willing to delve back into the marketdespite tight financing that often requires self-funding of projects. While construction is up,the 603,000 single family units started in September (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) waswell below the 1.15 million units averaged annually from 1980 to 2007.

The purchase portion of the weekly mortgage applications index rose 1% on the heels of a2% increase last week. The refinance component fell 5% after a 2% decrease last week.

Purchase applications are headed in the right direction, but at low levels. Lenders havecomplained of high refi volumes taxing their processes, so the decline on that side of thebusiness should help homebuyers. It may also help to reduce the spread between banks costof capital and the rates that they loan at as a decline on the refi side would help to heat upcompetition for borrowers, passing on more the impact of QE3 to homebuyers.

Construction is up, which is a good sign of the sustainability of the low inventory levelswhich have driven price growth and buyer confidence. In addition, growth of mortgageapplications suggests that demand should remain robust through the end of the year and wemay see some further improvement in rates to draw buyers out during the wintermonths. However, lending conditions remain tight and an improvement on this front,hopefully with clarification on Basel III and Dodd-Frank (QM and QRM) as we approachJanuary, should help to unlock more demand.
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/files/2012/10/101712daily.png


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Appendix. RCI Historical DataREALTORS Confidence Index Survey As of October 2012

National Association of REALTORS

Price Expectation

for Next 12 Months Rent Trends

Median Days

on the

Market

Buyer

Traffic

Seller

Traffic

As % of

REALTORSWho

Expect

Constant/Rising

Prices

As % of

REALTORS

Who Expect

Rising Rents

Year/Month

Current

Conditions

6-Month

Outlook

Current

Conditions

6-Month

Outlook

Current

Conditions

6-Month

Outlook

200801 27 38 16 23 14 19 31 58 - -

200802 27 38 17 24 15 21 31 57 - -

200803 29 39 19 25 15 21 35 56 - -

200804 28 37 19 25 16 22 30 56 - -

200805 31 38 21 26 17 23 34 55 - -

200806 29 37 20 23 18 21 31 57 - -

200807 29 33 20 22 17 19 31 54 - -

200808 26 33 18 22 15 20 33 52 - -

200809 25 28 16 19 14 16 28 48 - -

200810 22 29 14 19 12 17 27 46 48% -

200811 21 31 13 20 12 17 26 42 44% -

200812 19 28 11 17 10 14 25 46 40% -

200901 23 34 13 20 11 18 32 45 45% -

200902 25 35 14 22 12 18 36 46 46% -

200903 28 40 15 23 12 19 39 48 57% -

200904 33 45 18 27 14 22 44 48 65% -

200905 34 44 20 27 16 23 44 48 65% -

200906 35 43 18 24 14 19 43 46 64% -

200907 34 40 18 22 14 18 41 47 64% -

200908 38 42 21 24 16 20 45 47 72% -

200909 35 41 19 22 15 19 41 47 70% -

200910 34 39 17 22 13 17 39 44 69% -

200911 35 41 19 23 15 18 38 43 70% -

200912 33 42 15 23 13 19 37 43 67% -

201001 36 43 18 24 14 18 41 44 66% -

201002 35 43 18 23 14 19 41 46 65% -

201003 36 42 18 22 14 18 42 47 65% -

201004 35 38 19 22 14 17 41 44 68% -

201005 36 40 19 22 17 19 37 43 67% -

201006 27 29 14 14 11 12 27 42 58% -

201007 24 27 11 13 10 11 26 40 55% -

201008 23 26 12 13 10 11 24 40 53% -

201009 21 25 12 15 9 11 23 41 49% -

201010 23 26 9 13 8 11 23 38 50% -

201011 23 28 11 15 10 13 25 37 52% -

201012 25 32 13 18 10 15 27 36 59% 39% -

201101 27 37 13 19 10 15 30 37 56% 42% -

201102 30 37 14 19 12 17 33 41 60% 44% -

201103 32 39 17 22 14 18 37 41 58% 46% -

201104 32 39 16 20 14 17 37 42 59% 48% -

201105 33 38 18 22 15 18 37 42 59% 55% 96

201106 31 34 16 19 14 16 33 41 54% 52% 97

201107 31 33 17 19 14 17 34 40 55% 49% 98

201108 31 32 17 18 14 15 32 38 54% 50% 92

201109 29 30 17 18 14 15 30 36 53% 47% 101

201110 30 32 18 20 14 16 33 36 58% 51% 96

201111 30 36 19 22 15 18 33 35 57% 47% 98

201112 32 40 19 24 14 19 36 37 62% 49% 99

201201 37 46 23 29 18 23 44 39 67% 47% 99

201202 43 52 26 32 21 27 51 40 73% 51% 97

201203 49 57 30 36 25 31 55 41 78% 53% 91

201204 50 55 31 36 25 30 55 41 81% 52% 83

201205 57 62 36 41 29 34 55 41 83% 54% 72

201206 58 61 38 42 31 36 54 40 86% 54% 70

201207 54 56 35 38 29 32 54 40 85% 57% 69

201208 54 56 35 38 30 34 55 40 87% 55% 70

201209 53 56 36 39 29 33 53 38 88% 57% 70

201210 53 58 36 41 31 36 54 37 87% 51% 71

/1 In the RCI Survey,a sale refers to the REALTOR's last closed or completed sale/transaction for the reference month.

Prepared by the Research Division. For querries, please contact the Research Division c/o Dr. Jed Smith, Manager, Quantitative Research.

Traffic Index

Si ngl e Fami ly Townhouse Condomi ni um

REALTORS Confidence Index (RCI)


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REALTORS Confidence Index Survey As of October 2012

National Association of REALTORS *

Appraisal

Foreclosed

As % of Sales

Short Sale

As % of

Sales

Total

Distressed

Sales As %

of All Sales

Mean Price

Discount of

Foreclosed

Property Sales

Mean Price

Discount of

Shortsale

Property Sales

All Cash

Sales as % of

All Sales

% of Mortgage Sales

with at least 20 %

Downpayment

First-

time

Buyer Investor

Second

home Relocation

International

Buyer

As % of

REALTORS Facing

Appraisal Issues

Year/Month

200801 - - -

200802 - - -

200803 - - -

200804 - - -

200805 - - -

200806 - - -

200807 - - -

200808 - - -

200809 - - -

200810 23% 11% 34% 15% 32% 14%

200811 25% 12% 37% 24% 27% 20%

200812 27% 13% 40% 16% 30% 14%

200901 28% 13% 41% 18% 38% 14%

200902 30% 18% 48% 19% 19% 30% 51% 25%

200903 31% 18% 49% 23% 21% 30% 53% 24%

200904 29% 17% 45% 14% 14% 20% 40% 18%

200905 21% 12% 33% 21% 17% 12% 47% 14%

200906 20% 11% 31% 21% 15% 13% 45% 14%

200907 20% 11% 31% 21% 17% 19% 31% 9%

200908 18% 12% 31% 21% 16% 20% 46% 12%200909 19% 10% 29% 21% 17% 21% 49% 13%

200910 18% 12% 30% 19% 18% 20% 50% 14%

200911 21% 12% 33% 21% 16% 19% 51% 12%

200912 22% 10% 32% 18% 15% 22% 43% 15%

201001 24% 14% 38% 15% 17% 26% 40% 17%

201002 23% 12% 35% 22% 19% 27% 42% 19%

201003 24% 12% 35% 21% 19% 27% 44% 19% 3% 39%

201004 21% 12% 33% 21% 19% 26% 49% 15% 2% 39%

201005 19% 12% 31% 19% 14% 25% 46% 14% 2% 39%

201006 17% 15% 32% 19% 12% 24% 43% 13% 1% 42%

201007 22% 10% 32% 19% 12% 30% 38% 19% 2% 42%

201008 22% 12% 34% 19% 12% 28% 31% 21% 2% 39%

201009 23% 12% 35% 19% 15% 29% 32% 18% 11% 2% 41%

201010 23% 11% 34% 22% 14% 29% 32% 19% 12% 2% 40%

201011 22% 11% 33% 20% 17% 31% 32% 19% 10% 3% 39%

201012 24% 12% 36% 20% 16% 29% 33% 20% 13% 3% 35%

201101 24% 13% 37% 22% 15% 32% 29% 23% 10% 2% 35%

201102 26% 13% 39% 22% 15% 33% 34% 19% 14% 3% 33%

201103 27% 13% 40% 19% 11% 35% 33% 22% 13% 4% 34%

201104 24% 13% 37% 20% 17% 31% 34% 36% 20% 13% 13% 3% 35%

201105 20% 11% 31% 21% 17% 30% 32% 36% 19% 13% 14% 3% 35%

201106 18% 12% 30% 20% 16% 29% 37% 31% 19% 14% 14% 3% 32%

201107 17% 12% 29% 21% 15% 29% 36% 32% 18% 13% 15% 3% 32%

201108 19% 12% 31% 20% 16% 29% 34% 32% 22% 11% 15% 2% 33%

201109 18% 12% 30% 22% 15% 30% 35% 32% 19% 12% 15% 3% 31%

201110 17% 11% 28% 20% 14% 29% 34% 34% 18% 12% 15% 2% 35%

201111 19% 10% 29% 19% 14% 28% 34% 35% 19% 10% 14% 2% 36%

201112 19% 13% 32% 22% 13% 31% 36% 31% 21% 13% 14% 2% 34%

201201 22% 13% 35% 21% 19% 31% 35% 33% 23% 13% 13% 2% 32%

201202 20% 14% 34% 22% 16% 33% 32% 32% 23% 12% 11% 2% 30%

201203 18% 11% 29% 19% 16% 32% 34% 33% 21% 11% 12% 2% 31%

201204 17% 11% 28% 21% 14% 29% 33% 35% 20% 12% 13% 2% 32%

201205 15% 10% 25% 18% 14% 28% 37% 34% 17% 11% 15% 3% 33%

201206 13% 12% 25% 18% 15% 29% 36% 32% 19% 12% 15% 2% 35%

201207 12% 12% 24% 17% 15% 27% 34% 34% 16% 11% 15% 2% 34%

201208 12% 10% 22% 19% 13% 27% 37% 31% 18% 12% 16% 2% 36%

201209 13% 11% 24% 21% 13% 28% 35% 32% 18% 12% 14% 2% 35%

201210 12% 12% 24% 20% 14% 29% 36% 31% 20% 12% 13% 2% 34%

/1 In the RCI Survey,a sale refers to the REALTOR's last closed or completed sale/transaction for the ref erence month.

Prepared by the Research Division. For querries, please contact the Research Division c/o Dr. Jed Smith, Manager, Quantitative Research.

FinancingDistressed Sales /1 Type of Buyer As % of All Buyers /1

realtors® confidence index, october 2012

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