Snapshot of Alcohol Consumption & Related Trends

Eddie Wirt, Chief Communications & Research Officer

Katie Weaks, Education & Prevention Manager

CONSUMPTION TRENDS

Beverage Alcohol Consumption

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

Beer Wine Spirits

$101

$30

$76

2014 U.S. Annual Sales

Bill

ion

s

Source: Nielsen

“Share of Glass”

60% 13%

27%

2002 Annual Share of Glass

Beer Wine Spirits

51% 15%

34%

2014 Annual Share of Glass

Source: Nielsen

Projected Growth in Spirits

Source: Nielsen

Projected Growth in Spirits

72% 13%

15%

Gen X Preferences in 1999

49%

21%

30%

Gen X Preferences in 2009

42%

20% 38%

Millennial Preferences in 2009

Millennial Preferences in 2019

? Source: Beam Suntory

60%13%

27%

2002 Annual Share of Glass

Beer Wine Spirits

Marketing Trends

Premium Products Vodka, Whiskey & Cognac over-index on trade-up sales

Hispanics Spirits for social occasions Looking for value

Women 37% of whiskey drinkers Interested in flavored spirits

Millennials Surpassed Boomers in numbers More than 25% prefer distilled spirits

ABC Fiscal Year-End Sales

650.0

700.0

750.0

800.0

850.0

900.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Actual Sales

Target

Year-end sales (millions)

1.5%

2.5%

5.9%

4.7%

4.1%

5.9%

% = Year over Year Growth 5-yr avg. trend 4.6%

ABC Markup Increase December 2014

ABC Transactions & Bottles

22.0

23.0

24.0

25.0

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bottles Sold

Transactions 2.3%

Bottles Sold (millions) 5-yr avg trend 3.5%

1.9%

4.4%

4.4%

3.3%

3.3%

5.2%

1.7%

2.4%

3.5%

3.5%

3.0%

Transactions (millions) 5-yr avg trend 3.5%

Gallons Sold

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2.2%

2.4% 2.6%

2.3%

1.6%

Gallons Sold (millions) 5-yr avg trend 2.5%

3.6%

Brewery, Winery & Distillery Growth

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2009 2012 2015 2016

Virginia

Breweries

Wineries

Distilleries

CONSUMPTION ISSUES

Underage Consumption

Source: CDC

High School Youth Risk Behavior Survey, 2015

National Virginia

Total Female Male Total Female Male

Ever drank alcohol (at least one drink of alcohol on at least 1 day during their life)

63.2 (60.6–65.8)

15,049†

65.3 (61.5–69.0)

7,518

61.4 (59.1–63.7)

7,424

50.7 47.5–53.9)

4,995†

51.9 (48.3–55.6)

2,507

49.6 (45.7–53.5)

2,463

Drank alcohol before age 13 years (for the first time other than a few sips)

17.2 (16.0–18.4)

15,257

14.6 (12.7–16.6)

7,600

19.7 (17.9–21.5)

7,547

14.6 (13.0–16.3)

5,042

12.4 (10.6–14.5)

2,510

16.4 (14.2–18.9)

2,502

Currently drank alcohol (at least one drink of alcohol on at least 1 day during the 30 days before the survey)

32.8 (30.4–35.2)

14,114

33.5 (29.8–37.5)

7,069

32.2 (30.4–34.0)

6,945

23.4 (21.1–25.8)

4,680

23.8 (20.9–27.0)

2,351

23.0 (20.3–25.9)

2,304

Usually obtained the alcohol they drank by someone giving it to them (during the 30 days before the survey, among students who currently drank alcohol)

44.1 (41.9–46.4)

4,436

48.5 (45.8–51.2)

2,321

39.9 (36.8–43.2)

2,088

43.9 (39.4–48.6)

1,103

46.7 (40.4–53.1)

579

41.0 (34.7–47.5)

520

Drank five or more drinks of alcohol in a row (within a couple of hours on at least 1 day during the 30 days before the survey)

17.7 (15.8–19.8)

14,967

16.8 (14.4–19.6)

7,505

18.6 (16.9–20.5)

7,356

11.0 (9.5–12.6)

4,965

9.8 (8.1–11.9)

2,487

12.1 (10.2–14.3)

2,449

Reported that the largest number of drinks they had in a row was 10 or more (within a couple of hours during the 30 days before the survey)

4.3 (3.6–5.1) 11,597

2.5 (1.9–3.3)

5,815

6.1 (5.1–7.2)

5,694

2.1 (1.6–2.6)

4,698

1.2 (0.7–2.0)

2,365

2.8 (2.0–3.9)

2,307

Virginia, Middle School Youth Risk Behavior Survey, 2015

Total Female Male

Drank alcohol before age 11 years (for the first time other than a few sips)

7.9 (6.6–9.6) 2,127

†

6.0 (4.8–7.6) 1,092

9.6 (7.6–12.2) 1,025

Underage Consumption

Monitoring the Future, 2015 8th 10th 12th

Alcohol is fairly easy or very easy to get 53.6 74.9 86.6

I disapprove or strongly disapprove of people who try 1 or 2 drinks of an alcoholic beverage

53.7 40.0 28.9

I disapprove or strongly disapprove of people who take 1 or 2 drinks nearly every day

79.7 78.2 71.1

I disapprove or strongly disapprove of people who have 5 or more drinks once or twice each weekend

85.4 79.6 71.9

The risk is great that people may harm themselves (physically or in other ways) if they try 1 or 2 drinks of an alcoholic beverage

15.3 12.4 10.3

The risk is great that people may harm themselves (physically or in other ways) if they take 1 or 2 drinks nearly every day

30.9 31.2 21.5

The risk is great that people may harm themselves (physically or in other ways) if they have 5 or more drinks once or twice each weekend

53.9 54.5 45.9

College Age Consumption

Source: SAMHSA

Binge Drinking

Source: CDC

Female Consumption

• 3 million women are at risk of exposing their developing baby to alcohol

• 3 in 4 women who want to get pregnant report drinking alcohol

• 100% of Fetal alcohol spectrum disorders are preventable

Source: CDC

• 1 in 8 – nearly 14 million women binge drink 3 times a month

• Women average 6 drinks per binge

• 1 in 5 high school girls binge drink

Alcohol Related Motor

Vehicle Statistics

Source: CDC

High School Youth Risk Behavior Survey, 2015

National Virginia

Total Female Male Total Female Male

Rode with a driver who had been drinking alcohol (in a car or other vehicle one or more times during

the 30 days before the survey)

20.0 (18.4–21.6)

15,555

20.2 (17.9–22.8)

7,739

19.6 (18.2–21.1)

7,711

15.6 (14.3–17.0)

5,158

17.0 (15.1–19.0)

2,562

14.3 (12.7–16.1)

2,565

Drove when they had been drinking alcohol (in a car or other vehicle one or more times during

the 30 days before the survey, among students who had driven a car or other vehicle during the 30 days

before the survey)

7.8 (6.8–9.0)

8,432

6.0 (4.7–7.7)

3,996

9.5 (8.3–10.9)

4,385

7.0 (5.8–8.5)

2,609

5.6 (4.0–7.8)

1,242

8.2 (6.4–10.4)

1,357

Virginia Alcohol Related

Motor Vehicle Statistics

3922 3873 4040

3606 3413

4049

4322 4524

4209 4016

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Injury

Property Damage

Source: Virginia DMV

Virginia Alcohol Related

Motor Vehicle Statistics

249

216 213

232 237

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Fatal

Source: Virginia DMV

29,063

28,162 28,719

27,333

24,895

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

29,000

30,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

DUI Convictions

Virginia Alcohol Related

Motor Vehicle Statistics

Source: Virginia DMV

EVIDENCE BASED SOLUTIONS

Wholesale & Retail Alcohol Sales

Control State Model

• Virginia is one of 17 states/jurisdictions in the U.S. that have some form of a “control” model at the wholesale level.

• 13 of those jurisdictions also exercise control over retail for off-premises consumption—either through state stores or agency stores.

Regulation of Alcohol Outlet Density

21,500

22,000

22,500

23,000

23,500

24,000

24,500

25,000

25,500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Virginia Population Per Store

UAB Compliance Rates

75

80

85

90

95

100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% C

om

plia

nt

Number of Standard Listed

Products in Virginia

2038

2361

2580

2732

2600

2644

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

• Offer product variety and customer service without promoting increased consumption

• Higher markup on higher proof products

• Higher markup on smaller sizes

• No loss leaders

• Listings process

Maintaining Limits on

Days & Hours of Sale

• COV authorizes ABC to set limits on on-premise and off-premise operating hours

• 77% of ABC stores open 7 days/week from 10am to 9 or 10pm

• 21% open from 10am to 6 or 7pm with weekend hours extended to 9 or 10pm

• HB 1314 (2004) allowed for Sunday sales in select cities based on population

• HB 908 (2008) added five additional localities

• HB 896 (2012) allows for statewide Sunday sales

Spirits Excise Taxes

Source: Tax Foundation

Beer Excise Taxes

Source: Tax Foundation

Wine Excise Taxes

Source: Tax Foundation

Responsible Beverage Service

Training

Responsible Sellers/Servers: Virginia’s Program Managers Alcohol Responsibility Training

• Current

– Regional classroom trainings with Special Agent

– RSVP & MART alternating months

– RSVP: 113 classes & 1,767 participants

– MART: 23 classes & 385 participants

• Future

– Online training

Seller/Server Training Approval Program

• Current – ABC Tipster – Learn2Serve – Rserving – Seller Server – Serv Safe – State Food Safety – Sure Sell Now – Techniques of Alcohol Management – The Operational Alcohol Standards – Training of Virginia – Training for Intervention ProcedureS

• Future

– 3 year renewals – Determine vendor’s Virginia training numbers

Responsible Beverage

Service Training

Other Evidence Based Solutions

• Strategic Prevention Programming

• Enhanced Enforcement of Laws Providing Sales to Minors

• Electronic Screening & Brief Intervention

• Dram Shop laws

• Social Hosting laws

• Keg Registration policy

• Drink Specials policy

Issues to Monitor

• High risk drinking • Compliance rates for retail licensees • Expanding privileges of licensees (physical expansion, remote locations, tastings/samplings) • Mixed Beverage Ratio (% of food to alcohol sales) • Neutral Grain Spirits

Thank You

Katie Weaks Education and Prevention Section Manager 804.213.4593 katie.weaks@abc.virginia.gov Eddie Wirt Chief Communications and Research Officer 804.213.4458 eddie.wirt@abc.virginia.gov