caucasus and central asia - imf · 2016-10-14 · away from center signifies higher risks, easier...
TRANSCRIPT
Regional Economic OutlookCaucasus and Central Asia
October 21, 2016
Outline
2
Policy Priorities
Outlook and Policy Actions
Global and Regional Environment
3
Global growth remains lackluster
World U.S. Euro Emerging China RussiaArea markets
2015 3.2 2.6 2.0 4.0 6.9 -3.7
2016 3.1 1.6 1.7 4.2 6.6 -0.8
2017 3.4 2.2 1.5 4.6 6.2 1.1
Risks are to the downside―more pronounced from inward-looking policies and secular stagnation, less so from emerging markets
4
Oct 2016 GFSR Apr 2016 GFSR
Credit risks
Emerging market risks
Market and liquidity risks
Macroeconomic risks
Monetary and financial conditions
Risk appetite
Global Risks
Away from center signifies higher risks, easier monetary and financial conditions, or higher risk appetite.Source: IMF GFSR report.
World GDP Growth(Percent change)
Source: World Economic Outlook.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
50 percent confidence interval
70 percent confidence interval
90 percent confidence interval
5
Commodity prices are expected to remain weak
Brent Crude Oil Price (U.S. dollars per barrel)
Commodity Prices(Index, June 2011=100)
Sources: Bloomberg; and IMF staff calculations.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201995% confidence interval 86% confidence interval68% confidence interval Brent Futures
WEO Baseline AverageOil Price:2016: $432017: $512020: $56
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Copper
Alumnium
Gold
Cotton
6
Despite some improvement, the outlook for CCA’s key export markets remains weakReal GDP Growth(Percent)
Exports by Destination(Share of Total Exports)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
ARM GEO KGZ TJK AZE KAZ UZB TKM
Russia China Euro areaCIS excl. Russia Other
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Euro area Russia China
2001-14 average
2015
2016
2017-21 average
7
Policy Priorities
Outlook and Policy Actions
Global and Regional Environment
8
Regional growth sharply weakening, with a modest recovery projected for 2017
Real GDP Growth (Percent)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000-14 2015 2016 2017
CCA Oil Exporters Oil Importers
AZEKAZ
TKMUZB
ARM
GEO
KGZ
TJK
AZE
KAZ
TKM
UZB
ARMGEO
KGZ
TJK
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2016 2017
9
Exports and remittances are key channels through which external conditions affect regional growthTotal Exports(Billions of USD)
Remittances(Jan 2011 = 100)
10
15
20
25
30
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2011 12 13 14 15 16 17
CCA Oil ExportersCCA Oil Importers (RHS)
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
11 12 13 14 15 16
Rubles
National Currency
US Dollars
2011
10
Budgetary support has helped economic activity
Oil Exporters: Government Expenditure(Percent of Non-oil GDP)
Oil Importers: Government Expenditure(Percent of GDP)
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
AZE KAZ TKM-10-8-6-4-20246810
05
101520253035404550
ARM GEO KGZ TJK
11
Public debt and adjustment needs have risen
Illustrative Fiscal Adjustment Needs in Oil Exporters(Percent)
1/ This is the gap between the projected nonhydrocarbon primary balance and the desirable fiscal balance based on a permanent income hypothesis.
Public Debt(Percent of GDP)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
AZE KAZ
Decrease in spending needed tobalance 2016 budget (percentchange)
Distance to intergenerationally-neutral fiscal balance (2016,percent of non-oil GDP) 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
ARM GEO KGZ TJK AZE KAZ TKM UZB
Change 2014– 16
2014
12
Exchange rate policy has also been a useful tool for coping with the shocks
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Oil Exporters(U.S. dollars per national currency, January 2010 = 100)
AZE KAZ TKM UZB
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Oil Importers(U.S. dollars per national currency, January 2010 = 100)
ARM GEO KGZ TJK
13
Currency adjustment has helped unwind previous real appreciations, but temporarily increased inflation
Nominal Effective Exchange Ratesand Inflation
(Percent)
Real Effective Exchange Rates(Percent Change, Trough to Peak or vice versa)
ARM
GEOKGZ
TJK
AZE
KAZ
TKMUZB
–50
–40
–30
–20
–10
00 10 20 30 40 50
Post
-sho
ck D
epre
ciat
ion
Pre-shock Appreciation
45 degree line
real appreciation
real
dep
reci
atio
n
ARM
GEOKGZ
TJK
AZE
KAZ
TKM
UZB
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Infla
tion
in 2
016
Nominal effective exchange depreciation(Percent change, peak to trough in REER)
14
Financial vulnerabilities have risen amid weaker currencies and slowing economic activity
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Credit Deposits
Private Credit and Deposits (Percent Change)
Note: Adjusted for exchange rate effects. Data not available for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Non-performing Loans(Percent of Total Loans)
Note: NPLs in Azerbaijan include only the overdue portion of the loans. In Kazakhstan, the reduction reflects the de-licensing of a bank with significant NPLs and legislation changes allowing banks to move NPLs to a Special Purpose Vehicle. Turkmenistan's data are not available.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
3520132014Latest
Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside
Further weakening of prices for oil and other commodities
Weaker growth in trading partners (Russia, China, Europe)
Increase in global risk aversion and financing costs
15
Increase in global protectionism and/or Slower domestic reforms
16
Policy Priorities
Outlook and Policy Actions
Global and Regional Environment
17
Fiscal • Continue to support growth in the near term if budget space and
buffers allow• Develop credible medium-term consolidation plans to ensure
sustainability
Monetary • Focus on inflationary pressures taking into account growth and financial
stability• Strengthen monetary and exchange rate frameworks
Financial Sector • Improve supervision, macro-prudential policies, and crisis management
frameworks
Macroeconomic and Financial Policy Priorities
18
Without reforms, medium-term growth prospects and gains in living standards will be slow
GDP per Capita(In Percent of Emerging Market Average)
Real GDP Growth(Percent)
Note: GDP per capita in 2022-2035 is expected to growth at the same rate as 2021.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
–2 –1 0 1 2 3
Russian crisis (1998 = 0)
Global financial crisis (2009 = 0)
Current recovery (2016 = 0)
30
35
40
45
80
90
100
110
120
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Oil Exporters Oil Importers (RHS)
19
Need to change growth models: diversify away from commodities & remittances, make growth inclusive
Oil Exports and Remittances(2015, Percent)
Poverty Rates(Percent)
0
10
20
30
40
KGZ TJK ARM UZB GEO AZE KAZ0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AZE KAZ TKM UZB ARM GEO KGZ TJK
Oil exports as a share of totalexports
Remittances as a share of GDP
20
Accelerating structural reforms remains key to unlocking growth potential
Structural Reform Indicators(In Global Percent Rank)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
EducationQuality
FinancialServices
Control ofCorruption
ExportDiversity
ExportIntegration
Doing Business
Emerging Market Averages
Sources: Education Quality: Global Competitiveness Report; Financial Services: Global Competitiveness Report and Doing Business; Control of Corruption: Worldwide Governance Indicators; Export Diversity: IMF/DFID Export Diversity Index; Export Integration: World Economic Outlook; and Doing Business: Doing Business Report.
Key Takeaways• Commodity prices and growth in key trading partners are set to
remain low in the coming years. • A weak and fragile recovery is projected, amid subdued external
environment, rising vulnerabilities, and lower policy space.• Countries with buffers can support growth in the short run, but
multi-year fiscal consolidation plans are needed to ensure debt sustainability.
• Stronger monetary policy frameworks and improved financial supervision can support more flexible exchange rates and reduce risks to inflation and financial sector stability.
• Structural reforms are needed to boost medium-term growth prospects, improve living standards, and create jobs.
21