adapting urban areas to climate change

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CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY Adapting urban areas to climate change (Chapter 8) Debra Roberts, PhD (also a local government official) Ethekwini Municipality Durban, South Africa.

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Page 1: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

CLIMATE CHANGE 2014:

IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

Adapting urban areas to climate change (Chapter 8) Debra Roberts, PhD (also a local government official) Ethekwini Municipality Durban, South Africa.

Page 2: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

CLIMATE CHANGE 2014:

IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

What’s New?

• Strong focus on urban areas

Page 3: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

“The post-2015 agenda must be relevant for urban dwellers. Cities are

where the battle for sustainable development will be won or lost.”

Report of the High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post 2015 Development Agenda.

Page 4: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

3.7 billion people today, doubling in less developed regions by 2050

Most of the world’s economy and assets: 600 cities account for 60% of the world’s GDP

Makes cities vulnerable to climate change risks – flood, drought, extreme heat (UHI) and precipitation with food security, human health and infrastructural impacts and losses…

Urban centres concentrate people and assets:

Page 5: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

URBAN AREAS ARE WHERE THE CLIMATE CHANGE RUBBER HITS THE ROAD

VULNERABILITY AND EXPOSURE

Page 6: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

1950

Page 7: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

2025

Page 8: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

CLIMATE CHANGE 2014:

IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

What’s New?

• Adaptation-development links

Page 9: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

Very large development and infrastructure deficits Most of the world’s urban population is in low- and

middle-income developing countries

Loss of ecological infrastructure

A billion living in informal settlements

Underdevelopment makes cities vulnerable regardless of the type of risk:

Page 10: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

Unique global opportunity: Annual urban infrastructure spend from $10 trillion to more than $20 trillion by 2025, majority spent in urban centers in emerging economies – opportunity of aging infrastructure.

“Half of what will be the built environment of 2030 does not exist today”. Arthur C. Nelson Brookings Institute

Page 11: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

12 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

US Local governments (average)Porto Alegre (Brazil)

Belo Horizonte (Brazil)Sevilla (Spain)

Canoas (Brazil)Cascais (Portugal)

Ilo (Peru)Medellin (Colombia)

Guarulhos (Brazil)eThekwini (South Africa)

Windhoek (Namibia)Cape Town (South Africa)

Varzea Paulista (Brazil)Johannesburg (South Africa)

Walvis Bay (Namibia)Rosario (Argentina)San Antonio (Chile)

La Serena (Chile)Quillota (Chile)

Chengdu (China)Iztapalapa (Mexico)

Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)Maputo (Mozambique)

Kigali (Rwanda)Ampasy Nahampoana (Madagascar)

Dar es Salaam (Tanzania)Kampala (Uganda)

Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso)Dakar (Senegal)

Saint-Louis (Senegal)Dondo (Mozambique)

Accra (Ghana)Rufisque Est (Senegal)

Bamako (Mali)

Different and unequal abilities to

access the ‘adaptation dividend’ of this

urban build: Municipal annual budget

per inhabitant (US$)

Page 12: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

The spectrum of urban adaptive capacity

[Source: Developed from Table 8.2 in IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014), Working Group II.]

“…potential to address root causes of poverty and

failures in sustainable development, including the need for rapid progress on

mitigation.” Has the ability to

fundamentally change the attributes of urban

systems

Page 13: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS and FAILURE TO ADAPT

INCREASE

RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Page 14: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASE WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS AND FAILURE/INABILITY TO ADAPT

• High adaption in the near term more effective in reducing risk than in the long-term (2oC).

• In a 4oC world risks are high and generally remain high or adaption is not possible.

• This is the world of “loss and damage.”

Key risks and potential to reduce risk through adaptation

Page 15: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

Key risks Adaptation issues & prospects Climate drivers Risk & potential for adapt- ation

Page 16: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

EFFECTIVE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

A MORE VIBRANT WORLD

Page 17: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

Climate change

adaptation

Climate change

mitigation

Disaster risk reduction

The urban agendas

Poverty reduction and

universal provision of

services*

* Following sustainable development principles

FOCUS ON INTEGRATED DECISION-MAKING TO GENERATE MULTIPLE BENEFITS AND MANAGE TRADE-OFFS

Page 18: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

Poverty reduction and universal provision of services

Climate change adaptation

Disaster risk reduction

The urban agendas

Climate change mitigation

More limited overlap with climate change mitigation – as consequences of investments in only emerge over

time

Large overlaps especially in low- and lower-middle income nations Reforestation - Improved water supplies - flood reduction - carbon storage

Page 19: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

Climate change mitigation

Poverty reduction and universal provision of services

Climate change

adaptation

Disaster risk reduction

• In long-term ‘dangerous’ climate change has profound influence on the other three

• Date when even strong adaptation cannot reduce risks without mitigation

• Transformative adaptation The urban agendas

Page 20: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

CLIMATE CHANGE 2014:

IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

What’s New?

• Key roles of local governments - will

need to plan and manage much of the

transformative adaptation that is

needed.

Page 21: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

Unique policy competence

Engagement with local stakeholders

Tap/influence private and household investment

Economies of scale

Integrate land use and infrastructure planning to address adaptation and mitigation needs in a pro-poor and ecologically sustainable manner

Urban climate governance advantage

Local governments do not have all the right policy levers nor the resources to get the job done

Page 22: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

• Appropriate mandates – to avoid hitting resource or

policy ‘glass ceiling’. • Local powers for good planning and managing land use

change • Alignment across national, sub-national, local policies • Access to locally relevant, timely climate data and

assessment tools, recognize and work with uncertainty • Iterative decision-making including monitoring and

design for continuous learning • Leadership matters! –actively create local leaders

Effective urban climate risk governance

Page 23: Adapting Urban Areas to Climate Change

Thank you

Dr Debra Roberts Environmental Planning and Climate Protection Department Ethekwini Municipality Durban, South Africa [email protected]