adapting to climate change - american planning...

Adapting to Climate Change California Resources for Local Governments

Adrienne I. Greve Assistant Professor, City & Regional Planning

Cal Poly - San Luis Obispo

[email protected]

Dep

artm

ent

of

Wat

er R

eso

urc

es

California State Policy & Guidance

• Policy: EO S‐03‐05, AB 32, SB 97, SB 375, SB 732, General Plan Guidelines

• State agency guidance (a sample)

• Dept. of Water Resources (2011)

• Dept. of Public Health (2012

• Dept. of Transportation (2006)

• Dept. of Forestry and Fire Protection (2008)

• Dept. of Fish and Game (2011)

• Emergency Management Agency (2010)

• Natural Resources Agency (2009)

• California Energy Commission (many)

2

CA Adaptation Policy Guide

Cal-adapt

California Energy Commission, 2011

• Diversity

• Biophysical Setting

• Jurisdiction Characteristics

• Social/Political Feasibility

• Jurisdiction Control

• Scale

• Uncertainty

• Resources (staff, funding, expertise)

Adaptation for Local Jurisdictions

State of Practice

• Local government

• Regional planning entities

• State agencies and organizations

Adaptation Policy Guide

Adapted from Boswell, Greve, & Seale, 2012

APG Structure

Vulnerability

Vulnerability

Capacity to Adapt

Risk & Onset

Potential Impact

Exposure

Sensitivity

Policy in the Face of Uncertainty

Prioritizing Strategies

12

We want to hear from you!!!

Public Review Draft

California Climate Change

ADAPTATION POLICY GUIDE

http://resources.ca.gov/climate_adaptation/local_government/

Thank You!

Contact:

Adrienne I. Greve

City & Regional Planning Department

California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo

[email protected]

Researc

h L

ead

: T

he U

niv

ers

ity o

f N

ort

h C

aro

lin

a a

t C

hap

el H

ill

Ed

ucatio

n L

ead

: Jackso

n S

tate

Un

ivers

ity, M

issis

sip

pi

A U.S. Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence

Contrasting Approaches to Climate Change and Hazards. Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons from Natural Hazards Planning.

Gavin Smith, Ph.D., AICP

Associate Research Professor

Department of City and Regional Planning

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Executive Director

Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence – Coastal Hazard Center

American Planning Association Conference, Los Angeles, California

April 2012

Researc

h L

ead

: T

he U

niv

ers

ity o

f N

ort

h C

aro

lin

a a

t C

hap

el H

ill

Ed

ucatio

n L

ead

: Jackso

n S

tate

Un

ivers

ity, M

issis

sip

pi


Presentation Overview

• Climate Change Adaptation and

Hazards Management

– Hazard Mitigation

– Disaster Recovery

• Adapting to Climate Change:

Lessons from Natural Hazards

– Mississippi Case Study

• Recommendations for the Planning

Community

Researc

h L

ead

: T

he U

niv

ers

ity o

f N

ort

h C

aro

lin

a a

t C

hap

el H

ill

Ed

ucatio

n L

ead

: Jackso

n S

tate

Un

ivers

ity, M

issis

sip

pi


Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons from Natural Hazards (Glavovic and Smith 2012, Springer)

• Introduction

• Climate Change Adaptation: Theory and Practice – Synthesis of scholarship and experience

• The Nature of Disasters and the Role of Natural Hazards in Building Resilient

Communities – Climate change adaptation and risk reduction in highland Peru (Anthony Oliver-Smith)

– Castles on sand: the shifting sources of flood risk and the implications for flood governance (Iain White)

– Planning for resilient coastal communities: the emerging practice and future directions (Tim Beatley)

– Resilience and Adaptation: the emergence of local action in California, USA (Bill Simbieda)

– Rising to the challenge: planning for adaptation in the age of climate change (Phil Berke)

• Case Studies: Lessons from Natural Hazards – Applying Hurricane Recovery Lessons in the U.S. to Climate Change Adaptation: Hurricanes Fran and

Floyd in North Carolina, USA (Gavin Smith)

– The Manawatu floods in New Zealand: Integrating flood risk reduction and climate change adaptation

(Bruce Glavovic)

– Drought and Bushfires in Australia (Karyn Bosomworth, John Handmer and Steven Dovers)

– Natural coastal hazards planning: the 2009 tsunami and lessons for climate change adaptation in Samoa

(Michelle Daly)

– Disaster Recovery in Coastal Mississippi (USA): Lesson Drawing from Hurricanes Camille and Katrina

(Gavin Smith)

– New Orleans and Hurricane Katrina (Bruce Glavovic)

• Conclusions: Taking Action to Address Climate Change Adaptation

Researc

h L

ead

: T

he U

niv

ers

ity o

f N

ort

h C

aro

lin

a a

t C

hap

el H

ill

Ed

ucatio

n L

ead

: Jackso

n S

tate

Un

ivers

ity, M

issis

sip

pi


Disaster Recovery in Coastal Mississippi (USA): Lesson Drawing from Hurricanes Camille and Katrina

• Risk Communication

• Role of the Design

Community in Recovery

– New Urbanists

– Emergency Housing

• Building Codes versus

Land Use

• Community

Resettlement

Researc

h L

ead

: T

he U

niv

ers

ity o

f N

ort

h C

aro

lin

a a

t C

hap

el H

ill

Ed

ucatio

n L

ead

: Jackso

n S

tate

Un

ivers

ity, M

issis

sip

pi


Use of Models to Inform the Public Pre-event

Researc

h L

ead

: T

he U

niv

ers

ity o

f N

ort

h C

aro

lin

a a

t C

hap

el H

ill

Ed

ucatio

n L

ead

: Jackso

n S

tate

Un

ivers

ity, M

issis

sip

pi


Risk Communication Post-Disaster

Researc

h L

ead

: T

he U

niv

ers

ity o

f N

ort

h C

aro

lin

a a

t C

hap

el H

ill

Ed

ucatio

n L

ead

: Jackso

n S

tate

Un

ivers

ity, M

issis

sip

pi


Role of the Design Community in Recovery: Mississippi Renewal Forum

Researc

h L

ead

: T

he U

niv

ers

ity o

f N

ort

h C

aro

lin

a a

t C

hap

el H

ill

Ed

ucatio

n L

ead

: Jackso

n S

tate

Un

ivers

ity, M

issis

sip

pi


Post-Disaster Emergency Housing: The Mississippi Alternative Housing Program

Researc

h L

ead

: T

he U

niv

ers

ity o

f N

ort

h C

aro

lin

a a

t C

hap

el H

ill

Ed

ucatio

n L

ead

: Jackso

n S

tate

Un

ivers

ity, M

issis

sip

pi


Post-Disaster Resettlement

Researc

h L

ead

: T

he U

niv

ers

ity o

f N

ort

h C

aro

lin

a a

t C

hap

el H

ill

Ed

ucatio

n L

ead

: Jackso

n S

tate

Un

ivers

ity, M

issis

sip

pi


Building Codes and Land Use

Researc

h L

ead

: T

he U

niv

ers

ity o

f N

ort

h C

aro

lin

a a

t C

hap

el H

ill

Ed

ucatio

n L

ead

: Jackso

n S

tate

Un

ivers

ity, M

issis

sip

pi


Hazards Management Lessons in Mississippi

• The Remapping of Mississippi’s Coastal Floodplains: Implications

for Risk Communications, Hazard Mitigation, Disaster Recovery, and Adaptation.

• Secondary policy impacts, migration of coastal residents, and the construction of

new inland communities.

• The role of the design community in disaster recovery, hazard mitigation, and

climate change adaptation.

• The adoption of new building codes and flood ordinances is not enough; these

techniques should be coupled with land use measures.

• The Widespread use of Post-Disaster Temporary and Transitional Housing (new

approach not adopted by FEMA).

• Creating and Sustaining a State Disaster Recovery Organization Committed to

Hazards Management and Related Elements of Climate Change Adaptation.

Researc

h L

ead

: T

he U

niv

ers

ity o

f N

ort

h C

aro

lin

a a

t C

hap

el H

ill

Ed

ucatio

n L

ead

: Jackso

n S

tate

Un

ivers

ity, M

issis

sip

pi


Hazards Management, Climate Change, and Land Use Planners: Key Points of Intervention

• Large-Scale Resettlement in Coastal Communities and

Cities (State and Local Planners)

• Documentation of Coastal Change (Planners in the

Academy, State and Local Planners, Planning

Consultants)

• Coordination with the Research Community (Planners in

the Academy, APA Hazards Center)

• Outreach and Engagement (Planning Community)

• Application of Risk Assessment and Analytical Tools

(State and Local Planners, Planning Consultants)

• Linking Climate Change and Hazards Management

Programs (NOAA, EPA, FEMA, State and Local

planners, APA Hazard Center)

• APA Hazard Mitigation and Disaster Recovery Interest

Group

Karl Kim, Ph.D. Professor of Urban & Regional Planning

Director, Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance Program University of Hawaii

2012 National Planning Conference • Los Angeles • 15 April

Background on NDPTC Climate Change and Planning Research Hawaii, Pacific Islands, Asia-Pacific Region Mainstreaming Adaptation

Climate into Codes

The Lure of the Local

Living with Water

New models for collaboration

3 3

3

• EMRTC Explosive and incendiary attacks

• NERRTC Incident Management, EMS, Hazmat, Public Works,

Threat and Risk Assessment, Senior Executive Programs

• NCBRT Prevention, deterrence and response to terrorist acts,

chem-/bio-/ag-related terrorism response

• CTOS Prevention, deterrence and response to

radiological/nuclear attacks

• CDP Prevention, deterrence and response to Chemical,

biological and nuclear attacks involving hazmat

• TTCI Transportation research and testing organization,

providing emerging technology solutions for the railway

industry

• NDPTC Monitoring natural hazards, evaluating risks to

urban populations and planning for the

response, recovery and reconstruction of

areas following a disaster.

“The need to engage fully in disaster risk reduction has never been more pressing… Disaster risk reduction is about stronger building codes, sound land use planning, better early warning systems, environmental management and evacuation plans and, above all, education. Its about making communities and individuals aware of their risks and how they can reduce their vulnerability. We have a moral, social, and economic obligation to act now in building resilient communities…”

1. Where are the hazards located?

2. Where are assets located? – People

– Jobs

– Economic activity

– Critical urban infrastructure

3. Vulnerabilities

- susceptibility

- coping capacity (Birkmann Framework)

Tsunami Coastal Resilience Coastal Flooding Hurricanes/Cyclones Volcanoes Social Media Rapid Damage Assessment Senior Caregivers Security Professionals Community Leaders Disaster Recovery

ndptc.hawaii.edu

• Hurricane

• Earthquake

• Tsunami

• Volcanoes

• Flooding

• Landslides

• Drought

• Wildfire

Hurricanes Storm Surge

Flash Flooding

Sewer Failure: Infrastructural damage-public health threat

Water supply Failure: Infrastructural damage- public health threat

Waterborne Debris: structural damage, property damage, personal injury threat

Waste Management: Infrastructure capacity- public health threat, public response concerns

Food Supply Disruption: result of infrastructure failure- public health threat

Transit Network Failure: infrastructure failure/ disruption- public response concerns

Telecom Grid Failure: infrastructure failure, battery limitations, interoperability- disrupted response network

Shaking Ground: Structural, property, infrastructural damage- personal injury threat

Air/Water Borne Pollutants: Infrastructural damage-public health threat

Power Grid Failure: infrastructure damage- safety concerns, loss of communication networks

Inland High Water: Structural, property, infrastructural damage- personal injury threat

Coastal Surge: Structural, property, infrastructural damage- personal injury threat

Airborne Debris: Structural, property damage- personal injury threat

High Winds: Structural, property damage- personal injury threat

VOLCANO FLOODING

HURRICANE

TSUNAMI EARTHQUAKE

DISTRICT

COUNTY

COMMUNITY SITE/BUILDING

3/11/11 14:46 3 min duration Subduction zone 300 km fault line M 9 earthquake Largest recorded

in Japan

• First tsunami waves 30-35 min

• 40 m wave

• 10-20 m average

• 15,850 killed

• 3,281 missing

• 5,994 injured

• 128,581 bldg destroyed

Ofunato City, Iwate Pref. Sendai City, Miyagi Pref.

Inundated Area

Hazard Maps

Source: Cabinet Office

23

Ibaraki Fukushima Miyagi Iwate

【Projection】 Sanriku-oki

Miyagi-ken-oki

Meiji-Sanriku

【This Disaster】 Tohoku-oki

Aomori

Tsu

na

mi H

eig

ht (m

)

30

25

20

15

10

5

Submersion of Pumping Stations Lower Floors Flooding EDGs Fuel Contamination

NI TI

Switchyard Damaged

Tsunami Impact on Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

$ 15.662 Billion

F

Legend

Mix Use Index

0.05-60

60-120

120-180

180-240

240-300

300-360

360-420

420-480

480-540

540-600

0 4 8 12 162

Miles

Negative Binomial (NB)

Pr(Yi = yi ; , d) = (yi + d – 1)!yi ! + ( d – 1)!

yi

(1 + )yi + k

; yi = 0, 1, 2...

Expected number of casualties/losses, Yi, occurring at grid i with a set of q predictor variables, Xi1, to Xiq:

Function (Yi) = 0 + 1 Xi1 + 2 Xi2 + … + q Xiq

Probability that a grid defined by a known set of predictor variables, Xi1, Xi2, ..., Xiq, experiences Yi = yi losses:

1, 2 ..., q for the negative binomial regression estimated using GLM in SAS

32

44.3 % would go up building

Of those leaving Waikiki: 34.3% by car, 33.3%

on foot, 22.2% by bus…

All Groups

Visitors and Residents

Age Groups

Accommodating people preferring vertical evacuation or not evacuating

Group Tourists Worker Residents Oahu Residents Total (person)

Going up

Structure 35789 7004 2774 9552 55119

Staying and

Watching 5965 3502 1387 4776 15630

Don’t Know 4338 0 0 1791 6129

Accommodating people Unable to safely evacuate from Waikiki

Description North North east South east Total (person)

Deficient Capacity for LOS

B (veh/hr) 9594 1045

Bus trips not able to

evacuate 183 21 8147

Car trips not able to

evacuate 4615 502 10232

Total Shelter Space Required 95,257

0 .1 .2 .3

Miles

Map layersWaikiki Street

TAZ Centroide Towards North Exit

Towards North East Exit

Towards South East Exit

Exit North

Exit North East

Exit South East

Population Distribution

5000 2500 2

Exit Points

0 .1 .2 .3

Miles

Map layersWaikiki Street

Total Flow

5000 2500 50

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Regularly

inundated (Low)

Below MHHW

(El. < +32.9 cm)

MHHW to

MHHW + 6cm

MHHW to

MHHW + 13cm

MHHW to

MHHW + 21cm

MHHW to

MHHW + 30cm

(El. +32.9 cm to

+38.9 cm)

(El. +32.9 cm to +45.9

cm)

(El. +32.9 cm to

+53.9 cm)

(El. +32.9 cm to +62.9

cm)

Regularly

inundated (High)

Below MHHW

(El. < +32.9 cm)

MHHW to

MHHW + 6.5cm

MHHW to

MHHW + 17.5cm

MHHW to

MHHW + 31cm

MHHW to

MHHW + 48.5cm

(El. +32.9 cm to

+39.4 cm)

(El. +32.9 cm to +50.4

cm)

(El. +32.9 cm to

+63.9 cm)

(El. +32.9 cm to +81.4

cm)

At-risk (Low)

MHHW to HOWL

(El. +32.9 cm to

+78.3 cm

MHHW + 6cm to

HOWL + 6cm

MHHW + 13cm to

HOWL + 13cm

MHHW + 21cm to

HOWL + 21cm

MHHW + 30cm to

HOWL + 30cm

(El. +38.9 cm to

+84.3 cm)

(El. +45.9 cm to +91.3

cm)

(El. +53.9 cm to

+99.3 cm)

(El. +62.9 cm to

+108.3 cm)

At-risk (High)

MHHW to HOWL

(El. +32.9 cm to

+78.3 cm

MHHW + 6.5cm to

HOWL + 6.5cm

MHHW + 17.5cm to

HOWL + 17.5cm

MHHW + 31cm to

HOWL + 31cm

MHHW + 48.5cm to

HOWL + 48.5cm

(El. +39.4 cm to

+84.8 cm)

(El. +50.4 cm to +95.8

cm)

(El. +63.9 cm to

+109.3 cm)

(El. +81.4 cm to

+126.8 cm)

Data Source

Sea Level Scenarios ICF International. (2007). The Potential Impacts of Global

Sea Level Rise on Transportation Infrastructure, Phase

1 – Final Report: the District of Columbia, Maryland,

North Carolina and Virginia: Study Goals and

Methodologies.

http://www.bv.transports.gouv.qc.ca/mono/0965210.pdf

MHHW and HOWL Elevations on Station Datum National Ocean Service

(NOAA) for Station number 1612340 (Honolulu Harbor,

Oahu). Epoch: 1983-2001.

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov

Coastline NOAA Composite Shoreline

http://shoreline.noaa.gov/data/datasheets/composite.ht

ml

Shapefiles (road,

parcel, networks,

land use)

The State of Hawaii GIS Data and the City and County of

Honolulu GIS Data.

Elevation NGA LIDAR = National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency Light

Detection and Ranging

At Risk – High Estimate (2100) based on HOWL + 0.485m

Infrastructure

Freeways

Unit

Lineal feet

Total

356,798

Main Arteries Lineal feet 819,320

Minor Roads Lineal feet 3,618,419

Airport Square feet 101,282,975

Harbor Square feet 22,737,943

Overall Area Square feet 1,606,092,470

Mobility: What is the impact of SLR on the household travel from one location to another in terms of speed, travel time, cost?

Accessibility: What is the impact on different modes (auto, bus, rail, bike, pedestrian, etc.)?

Safety: Who is at risk of increased mortality and morbidity and exposure?

Development: What is impact on land use, development, growth, change, urbanization?

Vulnerable at-risk, EJ Populations?

Hazard Mitigation:

Actions taken to reduce risks of harm (loss of life, injury, property damage, disruption) from hazards

ADAPTATION:

Growth/Exploitation

Conservation

Collapse/Release

Renewal/Reorganization

(Holling & Gunderson, 2002)

1992 2007

Do Nothing Protect Elevate Retreat Transform

1. Analytical Framework(s) 2. Data Requirements 3. Analytical Capabilities 4. Physical Science + Social Science

Urbanization Coastal Development Climate Impacts Sea Level Rise Coastal Flooding Poverty

Living with Water Floating Structures Water Resource Management Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation Integrating Environment into Design

Partner with ICLEI-Korea and others Community Resilience Training Initiative Coastal Hazards, Sea Level Rise, Adaptation Flood Risk Reduction University-Government-Community Training,

Exercises, Drills focus on resilient sustainable cities.

Lure of the Local Go to threats/risks/hazards Coding (Building, Land Use, etc.) Data integration for risk reduction Transport/Land Use/Development Critical Infrastructure Data Rich Environment Interactions between transport

facilities, land use, development, especially in coastal area

COLLABORATION for ADAPTATION

Science + Social Science = PLANNING DANCE of Black Dragon + Phoenix

Prof. Karl Kim, Executive Director National Disaster Preparedness Training Center

University of Hawaii Department of Urban & Regional Planning

828 Fort Street Mall • Suite 320 Honolulu, Hawaii 96822

Tel: 808 956-0600 Email: [email protected]

Website: ndptc.hawaii.edu

mailto:[email protected]

adapting to climate change - american planning...

Documents