quarterly labour force survey (qlfs), 4th quarter 2016

Source: QLFS, Q4:2016

Quarterly Labour Force

Survey Q4:2016

Dr Pali Lehohla

Statistician-General

#StatsSA


South African Labour Market: Current state vs NDP target


Unemployment The unemployment rate has been

around the 25% level since 2010


NDP Target

unemployment

in 2030

6%

26,5%current

unemployment

rate

14%NDP Target

unemployment

in 2020

Gap in reaching 2030 NDP

target:

20,5 percentage points


target:



Employment Labour Force

Participation Rate

16,1 million

in Q4:2016

24 million

2030

NDP target

59,2%in Q4:2016

65% 2030

NDP target


target:

7,9 million

Absorption Rate

43,5%in Q4:2016

61%2030

NDP target


target:



target:




Labour market

Q4:2016


21,8 millionLabour force

16,1 millionEmployed

5,8 millionUnemployed

15,1 millionNot economically

active*

*Of which 2,3 million

were discouraged work

seekers

36,9 millionpeople of working age in

South Africa(15 – 64 year olds)

ILO hierarchy – Employed first then

unemployed and the remainder is NEA

(including discouraged job-seekers).

3 mutually exclusive groups. Cannot be in two

groups at the same time

NDP target 2030

Employment:

24 million

The labour market Q4:2016


Employment

&

Labour Market Rates


Absorption rate

• Indicates the proportion of the working-age

population (15-64 years) which is currently

employed

It is calculated by dividing the number of people employed by the total number of people of

working age (15-64 years).

Example:

• For example, of the 36,9 million people of

working age,

• 16,1 million were employed in SA, then

employment-to-population ratio (absorption

rate) is 43,5%

Labour force

participation rate

• Represents the share of working-age

population that is actively engaged in the

labour market by either being employed or

available to work, i.e. labour supply

• It is calculated by dividing the number of

people in the labour force

(employed+unemployed) by the total

number of people of working age

• (15-64 years).

Example

• Of the 36,98 million people of working age,

• 21,8 million people were in the labour force in

SA,

• The labour force participation rate is 59,2%

Absorption rate and LFPR explained


Number of employed

people increased from

14,4 million in Q1:2008

to 16,1 million in

Q4:2016

Labour market dashboard

Despite the rise in the

number of employed, the

absorption rate has not

recovered to pre-

recession level of 45,8%

in 2008

The labour force

participation rate remains

below pre-recession level

because discouragement

increased.

Mill

ion

%

%

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Number of employed 14,4m

16,1m

45,8%43,5%

30

40

50

60

70

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Labour force participation rate59,6% 59,2%

30

40

50

60

70


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Employed/population ratio (Absorption)


Labour market rates by sex

There are large disparities in the labour market by sex –

Women have higher unemployment rates compared to men and are less likely to

participate in the labour market

Labour Force Participation RateAbsorption rate (AR) Unemployment rate (UR)

28,9%

24,5%

26,5%

29,3%

25,2%

27,1%

Women

Men

Both sexes

Q3:2016 Q4:2016

37,6%

49,6%

43,5%

36,9%

49,4%

43,1%

Women

Men

Both sexes

Q3:2016 Q4:2016

52,9%

65,7%

59,2%

52,3%

66,0%

59,1%

Women

Men

Both sexes

Q3:2016 Q4:2016


Absorption rateLabour Force

Participation Rate Unemployment rate

Labour market rates by age

Young people aged 15-24 remain vulnerable in the labour market with an unemployment rate of

over 50% and absorption rate of 12%

50,9%

31,9%

21,4%

15,1%

8,1%

26,5%

54,2%

32,1%

21,5%

14,6%

9,0%

27,1%

15-24 years

25-34 years

35-44 years

45-54 years

55-64 years

15-64 years

Q3:2016 Q4:2016

12,9%

51,1%

63,5%

61,6%

40,5%

43,5%

12,3%

50,7%

62,9%

62,3%

39,4%

43,1%

15-24 years

25-34 years

35-44 years

45-54 years

55-64 years

15-64 years

Q3:2016 Q4:2016

26,3%

74,9%

80,8%

72,6%

44,0%

59,2%

26,8%

74,6%

80,2%

73,0%

43,3%

59,1%

15-24 years

25-34 years

35-44 years

45-54 years

55-64 years

15-64 years

Q3:2016 Q4:2016


Absorption rateLabour Force

Participation Rate Unemployment rate

Labour market rates by education level

Importance of education is shown by the low unemployment rate and high participation and

absorption rate of graduates.

48,6%

71,5%

85,2%

88,7%

59,2%

49,0%

70,5%

85,3%

88,5%

59,1%

Less than matric

Matric

Other tertiary

Graduates

Total

Q3:2016 Q4:2016

31,2%

27,1%

15,8%

7,0%

26,5%

31,8%

27,0%

17,3%

7,6%

27,1%

Less than matric

Matric

Other tertiary

Graduates

Total

Q3:2016 Q4:2016

33,4%

52,1%

71,7%

82,5%

43,5%

33,4%

51,4%

70,6%

81,8%

43,1%

Less than matric

Matric

Other tertiary

Graduates

Total

Q3:2016 Q4:2016


Unemployment rate among youth graduates by population group

(15-34 years)


Unemployment rate among other tertiary education holder by population

group (15-34 years)


Absorption rate(Q4:2016 National AR = 43,5%)

Labour Force Participation Rate(Q4:2016 National LFPR = 59,2%)

Unemployment rate(Q4:2016 National UR = 26,5%)

Youth (15-34 years) labour market rates by population group

10,5%

16,4%

29,2%

40,8%

37,1%

10,0%

20,4%

34,0%

41,6%

38,2%

White

Indian/Asian

Coloured

Black African

Total

Q3:2016 Q4:2016

55,9%

56,1%

60,2%

48,3%

49,9%

55,2%

58,1%

59,7%

48,4%

49,9%

White

Indian/Asian

Coloured

Black African

Total

Q3:2016 Q4:2016

50,0%

46,9%

42,6%

28,6%

31,4%

49,7%

46,2%

39,4%

28,3%

30,8%

White

Indian/Asian

Coloured

Black African

Total

Q3:2016 Q4:2016

Unemployment rate among the youth is above the national average for all population groups except

for the Indian/Asian and White population groups


Youth (15-34 years) labour market rates by education level

42,5%

36,5%

27,0%

11,8%

37,1%

44,0%

36,3%

29,9%

12,6%

38,2%

Less than matric

Matric

Other tertiary

Graduates

Total

Q3:2016 Q4:2016

38,2%

65,2%

82,7%

86,4%

49,9%

39,1%

64,0%

81,6%

86,7%

49,9%

Less than matric

Matric

Other tertiary

Graduates

Total

Q3:2016 Q4:2016

22,0%

41,4%

60,4%

76,2%

31,4%

21,9%

40,7%

57,2%

75,8%

30,8%

Less than matric

Matric

Other tertiary

Graduates

Total

Q3:2016 Q4:2016

Unemployment among the youth decreases as the level of education increase.

Labour market outcome are better among young graduates compared to those with lower education levels.

Absorption rate(Q4:2016 National AR = 43,5%)

Labour Force Participation Rate(Q4:2016 National LFPR = 59,2%)

Unemployment rate(Q4:2016 National UR = 26,5%)


Employment


Employment Q4:2016M

illio

n

Employment increased in Q3:2016 and

Q4:2016 after two successive declines

in Q1:2016 and Q2:2016

Number of employed people

12,0

12,5

13,0

13,5

14,0

14,5

15,0

15,5

16,0

16,5

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

16,1 m


Total employment changes vs GDP % changes

-4,0

-3,0

-2,0

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

-200

0

200

400

600

800M

ar-1

1

May

-11

Jul-

11

Sep

-11

No

v-1

1

Jan

-12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-

12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-

13

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-

14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-

16

Sep

-16

GD

P y

ear-

year

% c

hanges

Em

plo

yment

year-

year

changes (

'000)

Employment (yr-yr changes) GDP at market prices (% change yr-on-yr)


Employment Q4:2016

Jobs in Private households

increased by

17 000q/q

Informal sector jobs

increased by

53 000q/q

to 2,7 million

An increase of

235 000 q/q

Formal sector jobs

increased by

127 000q/q

to 11,2 million

16,1mPeople aged 15 – 64 years were

employed in Q4:2016

NDP target 2030

Employment 24 million

Jobs in the Agricultural

sector increased by

38 000q/q


0,7%

2,8%

5,6%

5,8%

8,1%

9,4%

10,6%

14,7%

20,2%

22,1%

Utilities

Mining

Agriculture

Transport

Private hhlds

Construction

Manufacturing

Finance

Trade

Services

Community and Social Services remains the largest employer

Services, Trade and

Finance industries

accounted for over 55% of the

employed and 59% of GDP

R

Employment and GDP share per industry

GDP

(Q3:2016) Employment

(Q3:2016)

0,9%

2,6%

5,7%

6,0%

8,1%

9,1%

10,7%

14,5%

20,1%

22,2%

Utilities

Mining

Agriculture

Transport

Private hhlds

Construction

Manufacturing

Finance

Trade

Services

Employment

(Q4:2016)

23%

15%

21%

13%

4%

-

10%

2%

8%

4%


Employment – changes by industry

The largest quarter-on-quarter employment gains were recorded in Services, Transport and

Manufacturing. While year-on-year gains were recorded in Transport, Agriculture and Finance.

Total q-q change: 235 000 Total y-y change: 51 000

-62

-58

-53

-11

5

8

44

56

59

61

Mining

Trade

Services

Manufacturing

Private hhlds

Utilities

Construction

Finance

Agriculture

Transport

Year on year change

-17

-9

6

13

17

24

38

44

46

73

Mining

Construction

Finance

Utilities

Private hhlds

Trade

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Transport

Services

Qrt to Qrt change


Breakdown of quarter-to-quarter employment changes for

selected industries, Q4:2016

Services

(73 000)

Mainly driven by a gain in:

• Education

• Other service activities

• Public administration

Agriculture

(38 000)


• Growing of crops; market gardening;

horticulture

Manufacturing

(44 000)


• Manufacture of furniture; manufacturing n.e.c

recycling

• Manufacture of transport equipment

• Manufacture of radio, television and

communication equipment and apparatus

Transport

(46 000)


• Telecommunication

• Other land transport

+ +

++


Breakdown of year-on-year employment changes for selected industries,

Q4:2016

Transport

(61 000)

Mainly driven by an increase in:

• Other land transport

• Postal and related courier

activities

+ Agriculture

(59 000)


• Growing of crops

+

Finance

(56 000)


• Computer and related activities

• Other business activities

• Real estate activities

+


Mining employment vs Mining production

Year-on-year employment in the Mining industry declined by

8 000 in Q3:2016.

Year-on-year Mining production increased by 9,2 % in Q3:2016 after an increase of 9,3% in

Q2:2016

-35,0

-25,0

-15,0

-5,0

5,0

15,0

25,0

35,0

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Min

ing

Vo

lum

e o

f p

rod

uct

ion

%

Min

ing

emp

loym

ent

yr-y

r ch

ange

s

Mining

Mining Employment Volume of production


Manufacturing employment vs Manufacturing production

-91

6,8

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ma

nu

factu

rin

g p

rod

uctio

n y

ea

r-ye

ar

% c

ha

nge

Ma

nu

factu

rin

g e

mp

loym

ent ye

ar-

ye

ar

ch

an

ge

s

y/y employment change % change in the value of total manufacturing

Manufacturing

Year-on-year employment in the Manufacturing industry declined by

91 000 in Q3:2016.

While, year-on-year Manufacturing production increased by 6,8 % in Q3:2016.


Trade employment vs Trade sales

-2

0,9

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Tra

de

sa

les y

ea

r-ye

ar

% c

ha

nge

s

Tra

de

em

plo

ym

en

t ye

ar-

ye

ar

ch

an

ge

s (

‘00

0)

y/y employment change % change in the value of total Trade

Trade

Year-on-year employment in the Trade industry declined by

2 000 in Q3:2016.

Year-on-year Trade sales increased by 0,9 % in Q3:2016.


Formal sector employmentT

ho

usand

11,2 million

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

11 000

12 000


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Highest annual growth was

observed in Q1:2014, and biggest

decline in Q2:2010.

The formal sector declined by

24 000 jobs to 11,2 million year-on-

year in Q4: 2016.


Informal sector employmentT

ho

usand

2,7 million

1 000

2 000

3 000


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

After two successive declines

employment in the informal sector

increased by 11 000 to 2,7 million in

Q4: 2016.


Employment share per occupation, Q4:2016

Elementary

(including .

domestic

worker)

contributed

about 30% to

total

employment

Manager: 8,8%

Professional: 5,6%

Technician: 9,2%

Clerk: 10,5%

Sales and services: 15,5%

Skilled agriculture: 0,4%

Craft and related trade:

12,3%

Plant and machine

operator: 8,2%

Elementary: 23,4%

Domestic worker: 6,2%

Shares of

employment

by

occupation


Number of employees by nature of contract

Quarter-on-quarter changes (‘000) Year-on-year changes (‘000)

The highest employment growth was among those with contract of

unspecified duration quarter-to quarter, while employment decreased

among those with contract of limited duration compared to a year ago.

-38

86

85

133

1 890

3 396

8 359

13 645

1 928

3 310

8 274

13 512

Limited

Unspecified

Permanent

Total

Q3:2016 Q4:2016 Change

-69

25

-49

-94

1 890

3 396

8 359

13 645

1 959

3 371

8 408

13 739

Limited

Unspecified

Permanent

Total

Q4:2015 Q4:2016 Change


Unemployment


Official unemployment Expanded unemployment

The official unemployment rate decreased by

0,6 of a percentage point (q/q)

The expanded unemployment rate decreased

by 0,7 of a percentage point (q/q)

5,8 millionpeople were unemployed in Q4:2016

A decrease of 92 000 q/q

8,9 millionpeople were unemployed in Q4:2016

An decrease of 116 000 q/q

28,9%

The unemployment rate

among women decreased by

0,4 of a percentage point q/q


among men decreased by 0,7

of a percentage point q/q

The expanded unemployment rate

among women decreased by 0,6

of a percentage point q/q

The expanded unemployment

rate among men decreased by

0,7 of a percentage point q/q

24,5% 39,9% 31,9%

Expanded unemployment consist of persons 15-64 years who did not

have a job and were available to take up a job or start a business in

the reference period (including discouraged work-seekers)

23,2%

26,5%

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

30,9%

35,6%

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Unemployment rate

Mill

ion

The proportion of those in

long-term unemployment

increased from 57,0% in

2008 to 68,2% in 2016

The number of

unemployed people in

South Africa increased

from 4,4 million in 2008

to 5,8 million in 2016

Number of unemployed people

Unemployed for 1 year or longer


has increased from

23,2% in 2008 to 26,5%

in 2016

Labour market dashboard

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Unemployed

4,4m

23,2%

10

30

50

70

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

26,5%

57,0%

10

30

50

70

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

68,2%

5,8m


Provincial unemployment rate

South Africa

26,5%(-0,6)

NC

32,0%(+2,4)

WC

20,5%(-1,2)

EC

28,4%(+0,2)

NW

26,5%(-4,0)

MP

31,0%(+0,6)

KZN

23,9%(+0,4)

FS

34,7%(+0,5)

LP

19,3%(-2,6)

GP

28,6%(-0,5)

Quarter-to-quarter changes


Profile of those Not in Employment,

Education and Training

(NEET)


Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of

youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-

specific working-age population.

Not in Employment, Education and Training

NEET

Those youth who are categorised as NEET are

considered to be disengaged from both work and

education.


NEET (15-24 years) by sex

Q4:2016 NEET rate

increased by 1,0

percentage point.

The NEET rate for females

and males increased by 1,2

and 0,8 of a percentage

point, respectively.0,8

1,2

1,0

27,3%

32,9%

30,1%

26,5%

31,7%

29,1%

Male

Female

Total

Q42015 Q42016 Change


Understanding

Non-economically active


Homemaker

(looking after

family)

18,0%(by 0,4 pp

quarter-to-quarter)

Discouraged

work-seeker15,2% (no change)

Too young or too

old to work9,4%

Sick or

disabled

10,7%

Student 41,4% (by 0,3 pp

quarter-to-quarter)

5 main

reasons for

NEA

15,1 millionpeople aged 15 – 64 years

were neither employed

nor unemployed

Non-economically active

(by 0,3 pp

quarter-to-

quarter)

by 0,2 pp

quarter-to-

quarter)


Discouraged-work seeker

Is a person who: wanted to work

was available to work/start a business

was not employed during the reference period

But

did not take active steps to find

work during the last four weeks

Provided that

the main reason given for not seeking work was any

of the following

• no jobs available in the area;

• unable to find work requiring his/her skills;

• lost hope of finding any kind of work.


Share of discouraged work seekers by education level

Q4:2016 compared to Q4:2015Q4:2016 compared to Q3:2016

More than 70% of discouraged work seekers had an education level below matric

0,6

0,7

3,8

23,0

72,0

0,4

0,6

2,9

25,7

70,5

Other

Graduates

Other tertiary

Matric

Less than matric

Q3:2016 Q4:2016

0,6

0,7

3,8

23,0

72,0

0,9

0,7

3,2

24,2

71,1

Other

Graduates

Other tertiary

Matric

Less than matric

Q4:2015 Q4:2016


Key findings: Q4:2016

QLFS

Q4:2016

Employment increased by 1,5% (235 000), while unemployment

declined by 1,6% (or 92 000) quarter-on-quarter.

Unemployment rate went down by 0,6 of a

percentage point to 26,5%.

Absorption rate was 43,5%. Despite the rise in the

number of employed, the absorption rate has not

recovered to pre-recession level of 45,8% in 2008.

The proportion of those in long-term unemployment

increased from 57,0 in 2008 to 68,2% in Q4:2016.

Graduates have better labour market outcomes with low

unemployment rate, high participation and high

absorption rate.

Inactivity increased by 0,1 % (or 12 000).

Young people aged 15-24 remain vulnerable in the labour

market with an unemployment rate of over 50% and

absorption rate of 12%


Thank you


Formal sector year-on-year changesT

ho

usand

-466

-24

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Highest annual growth was observed in Q1:2014,

and biggest decline in Q2:2010.

The formal sector lost 24 000 jobs year-on-year

in Q4: 2016.


Informal sector year-on-year changes

-201

11

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

After two successive declines informal sector

recorded an increase in employment in Q4:

2016.

Th

ou

sand

quarterly labour force survey (qlfs), 4th quarter 2016

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