qin zhihao — impacts of agro drought on grain production in china
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The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.TRANSCRIPT
Impacts of agro-drought on grain production in China
International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security, November 8, 2011
Zhihao Qin, PhD, professor
Institute of Agro-Resources and Regional PlanningChinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBeijing 100081, ChinaEmail: [email protected]
The contents
• Background
• Objectives
• Methodology
• Results and analysis
• Conclusion
Drought in Yunnan
The climate of China is complex, diverse, and unique, with a monsoon-controlled pattern showing clear latitudinal and longitudinal differentiation. The annual rotation of four seasons (spring, summer, autumn, and winter) with coincident heat and rainfall is a well-known feature of Chinese climate.
I West wind circulation regime
II Subtropical monsoon regime
III Tropical monsoon regime
VI Equatoric monsoon regime
V Tibetan Plateau monsoon regime
Formation of Chinese climate is subject to the interaction of four main regimes that govern climatic dynamics in China:
subtropical monsoon, tropical monsoon, plateau monsoon, and west-wind circulation.
Climate in China
Drought is the most powerful natural force shaping impact on agriculture.
Each year drought occurs in various parts of China, with an average acreage of 20-25 Mha
In China drought is catastrophic: frequent, serious
Agriculture in China: Arable land 100 M haCropping area 155 M haGrain area 100 M haGrain production 500 M t
Climate in China is a typical monsoon pattern. With rainfall
Drought has been a frequent climatic event in China.
2007 drought in Guangxi and Hunan. 2008 in southwest and northwest China
Since 2009, China has been continuously attacked by severe drought events, with 2009 in north China plain, 2010 in southwest China, and this year 2011 in middle Yangtze River Basin and southwest China.
2011 is a big drought year in China, spring and summer, drought. It is said that this drought was the biggest within the last 60 years.
Drought intensity for 2001-2005
Xinjiang
Tibet
Qinghai
Inner Mongolia
Sichuan
YunnanGuangxi
GuizhouHunan
Hubei
Henan
Heilongjiang
Jilin
Liaoning
1 Beijing2 Tianjin3 Shanghai4 Ningxia5 Hainan6 Chongqing
Anhui
GansuShaanxi
ShanxiHebei
Shandong
Fujian
Guangdong
Jiangsu
JiangxiZhejiang
1 2
3
4
5
6<5%
5-10%
10-15%
15-25%
>25%
August 2005
Drought monitoring in China
May 2005
Based on MODIS data
全国旱情遥感监测(2009年3月下旬)
MODIS + 降水 监测结果
图2
说明:旱情等级划分,见表1的注解
特旱
重旱
中旱
轻旱
正常
湿润
过湿
云
全国耕地旱情遥感监测(2009年5月中旬)图1
特旱
重旱
中旱
轻旱
正常
湿润
过湿
云
非耕地
说明:旱情等级划分,见表1的注解
Economically drought reduces the productivity of cropland to threaten food security in a country like China with giant population and relatively limited cropland resources.
Environmentally water shortage and high temperature as a result of drought can alter soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics to affect climate changes in regional and global scales.
Objective: to quantify drought’s impact on grainproduction and food security in China.
Objective of the study
Drought
Productivity decline
Production
Food security
Water and temperature stress
Biome
Residues, manure, CO2, CH4, leaching
SOC change
To link drought with food security and climate change
Soil fertility
Climate change
Methodology
• Drought statistics in China
Only cropping acreage under drought effects are available, with three levels of severity:
Slight drought: 10-30% of productivity decline
Moderate drought: 30-50% decline
Severe drought: >50% of productivity decline
Data for the analysis
Available statistic data on drought in China
Drought intensity index
it
iiii A
AwAwAwDI 332111 ++
=
where DIi is the drought intensity index for province i; Ai1, Ai2 and Ai3 are the cropping acreages under drought at slight, moderate and severe levels, respectively, in province i; Ait is the total cropping acreage in province i; and w1, w2 and w3 denote the weights of drought at slight, moderate and severe levels, respectively.
Taking moderate drought as unity, we give w1=P1/P2=0.45, w2=1, and w3=P1/P2 =1.78 in the study.
Percentage of drought area to total cropping acreageTaking moderate drought as unity
Drought-induced loss of grain production
∑∑==
−+−+−==n
iiiiiiiiii
n
idid PYARPYARPYARFF
1332211
1)]1()1()1([
where i denotes province i; n is total number of provinces (n=30); Fdiis drought-caused food production loss in province i; Ri is the fractionof grain cropping area to the total cropping area in province i; Ai1, Ai2and Ai3 are the cropping areas under drought at slight, moderate andsevere levels, respectively, in province i; Yi is the yield of graincropping in province i; and P1, P2 and P3 denote the rates of yielddrop under drought at slight, moderate and severe levels, respectively.The rates can be determined as the conservative medians, i.e. P1=20%,P2=45% and P3=80%
Computation according to cropping structure
Drought impact index
F
%100×=p
dd F
FR
where Rd represents the impact of drought on food security, and Fp is the food production without drought.
To represent the impact of drought on grain production, as percentage of drought-induced loss to the total production
Drought dataFood production Cropping & other data
DNDC model
Cropland SOC
Drought’s impact on food production
Models on drought & SOC relationship
The supported databases
Models on drought & food relationship
Drought’s impact on SOC dynamics
Statistic data
Evaluation of drought’s impacts
Procedures for analysis of drought’s impacts on grain production and climate change in China.
• Drought attack on agriculture in China in recent years
• Spatial variation of drought intensity in China
• Annual loss of grain production due to drought attacks
• Impact of drought on food security in China
• Relationship between drought intensity and its impact on food security in China
Results and analysis
Change of cropping areas under various levels of drought attack
0
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
15000
17500
20000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year
Dro
ught
acr
eage
(Kha
)
Slight
Moderate
Severe
(a)
Arable land: 130 MhaCropping acreage: 155Mha
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
Dro
ught
inte
nsity
( %
)Change of agro-drought intensity in China
Drought Intensity
<5% 5-10% 10-15% 15-25% >25%
(a) 1990-1995 (b) 1996-2000
(c) 2001-2005 (d) 2005
Actual and potential food productions in China
Difference between actual and potential food productions in China
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
Impa
ct (
%)
Impact of drought on food security of China
Drought-induced food production loss
<100Kt 100-500 500-10001000-2000 >2000Kt
(c) 2001-2005 (d) 2005
(a) 1990-1995 (b) 1996-2000
(c) 2001-2005 (d) 2005
Spatial variation of drought impact on food production
(a) 1990-1995 (b) 1996-2000
<2% 2-5% 5-10% >10%
y = 1.9747x + 0.5781R2 = 0.9784
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
Drought intensity %
Loss
(mt)
(a)
Relationship between drought-induced food production loss and drought intensity in China
y = 0.3838x + 0.3265R2 = 0.9933
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
Drought intensity %
Impa
ct %
(b)
Relationship between drought’s impact on food production loss and drought intensity in China
Conclusion
Each year 25-30 Mha of cropping land were under drought attack.
Drought intensity was 13.8% on average between 1990-2005, with maximumof 25% and minimum of 6%.
Drought induced 28 Mt of grain production loss, shaping an impact of 6% tototal grain production in China, shaping an impact of 3% inminimum and 10% in maximum on food security in China1996-2000 had the severest drought, with an intensity of 15.11% on averageand an annual food production loss of 32Mt, leading an impact of 6.1%.
Greater impacts of drought on grain production were observed in NortheasternChina and Northwestern China regions, including Shanxi, Shaanxi, JilinHeilongjiang and Inner Mongolia provinces.
Quantitatively an increase of 1% in drought intensity might lead to 2 Mt offood production loss, and an impact of 0.4% on total grain production.
Thank you!