qin zhihao — impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

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Impacts of agro-drought on grain production in China International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security, November 8, 2011 Zhihao Qin, PhD, professor Institute of Agro-Resources and Regional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081, China Email: [email protected]

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The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.

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Page 1: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

Impacts of agro-drought on grain production in China

International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security, November 8, 2011

Zhihao Qin, PhD, professor

Institute of Agro-Resources and Regional PlanningChinese Academy of Agricultural SciencesBeijing 100081, ChinaEmail: [email protected]

Page 2: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

The contents

• Background

• Objectives

• Methodology

• Results and analysis

• Conclusion

Drought in Yunnan

Page 3: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

The climate of China is complex, diverse, and unique, with a monsoon-controlled pattern showing clear latitudinal and longitudinal differentiation. The annual rotation of four seasons (spring, summer, autumn, and winter) with coincident heat and rainfall is a well-known feature of Chinese climate.

I West wind circulation regime

II Subtropical monsoon regime

III Tropical monsoon regime

VI Equatoric monsoon regime

V Tibetan Plateau monsoon regime

Formation of Chinese climate is subject to the interaction of four main regimes that govern climatic dynamics in China:

subtropical monsoon, tropical monsoon, plateau monsoon, and west-wind circulation.

Climate in China

Page 4: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

Drought is the most powerful natural force shaping impact on agriculture.

Each year drought occurs in various parts of China, with an average acreage of 20-25 Mha

In China drought is catastrophic: frequent, serious

Agriculture in China: Arable land 100 M haCropping area 155 M haGrain area 100 M haGrain production 500 M t

Page 5: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

Climate in China is a typical monsoon pattern. With rainfall

Drought has been a frequent climatic event in China.

2007 drought in Guangxi and Hunan. 2008 in southwest and northwest China

Since 2009, China has been continuously attacked by severe drought events, with 2009 in north China plain, 2010 in southwest China, and this year 2011 in middle Yangtze River Basin and southwest China.

2011 is a big drought year in China, spring and summer, drought. It is said that this drought was the biggest within the last 60 years.

Page 6: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

Drought intensity for 2001-2005

Xinjiang

Tibet

Qinghai

Inner Mongolia

Sichuan

YunnanGuangxi

GuizhouHunan

Hubei

Henan

Heilongjiang

Jilin

Liaoning

1 Beijing2 Tianjin3 Shanghai4 Ningxia5 Hainan6 Chongqing

Anhui

GansuShaanxi

ShanxiHebei

Shandong

Fujian

Guangdong

Jiangsu

JiangxiZhejiang

1 2

3

4

5

6<5%

5-10%

10-15%

15-25%

>25%

Page 7: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

August 2005

Drought monitoring in China

May 2005

Based on MODIS data

Page 8: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

全国旱情遥感监测(2009年3月下旬)

MODIS + 降水 监测结果

图2

说明:旱情等级划分,见表1的注解

特旱

重旱

中旱

轻旱

正常

湿润

过湿

Page 9: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

全国耕地旱情遥感监测(2009年5月中旬)图1

特旱

重旱

中旱

轻旱

正常

湿润

过湿

非耕地

说明:旱情等级划分,见表1的注解

Page 10: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

Economically drought reduces the productivity of cropland to threaten food security in a country like China with giant population and relatively limited cropland resources.

Environmentally water shortage and high temperature as a result of drought can alter soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics to affect climate changes in regional and global scales.

Objective: to quantify drought’s impact on grainproduction and food security in China.

Objective of the study

Page 11: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

Drought

Productivity decline

Production

Food security

Water and temperature stress

Biome

Residues, manure, CO2, CH4, leaching

SOC change

To link drought with food security and climate change

Soil fertility

Climate change

Methodology

Page 12: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

• Drought statistics in China

Only cropping acreage under drought effects are available, with three levels of severity:

Slight drought: 10-30% of productivity decline

Moderate drought: 30-50% decline

Severe drought: >50% of productivity decline

Data for the analysis

Available statistic data on drought in China

Page 13: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

Drought intensity index

it

iiii A

AwAwAwDI 332111 ++

=

where DIi is the drought intensity index for province i; Ai1, Ai2 and Ai3 are the cropping acreages under drought at slight, moderate and severe levels, respectively, in province i; Ait is the total cropping acreage in province i; and w1, w2 and w3 denote the weights of drought at slight, moderate and severe levels, respectively.

Taking moderate drought as unity, we give w1=P1/P2=0.45, w2=1, and w3=P1/P2 =1.78 in the study.

Percentage of drought area to total cropping acreageTaking moderate drought as unity

Page 14: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

Drought-induced loss of grain production

∑∑==

−+−+−==n

iiiiiiiiii

n

idid PYARPYARPYARFF

1332211

1)]1()1()1([

where i denotes province i; n is total number of provinces (n=30); Fdiis drought-caused food production loss in province i; Ri is the fractionof grain cropping area to the total cropping area in province i; Ai1, Ai2and Ai3 are the cropping areas under drought at slight, moderate andsevere levels, respectively, in province i; Yi is the yield of graincropping in province i; and P1, P2 and P3 denote the rates of yielddrop under drought at slight, moderate and severe levels, respectively.The rates can be determined as the conservative medians, i.e. P1=20%,P2=45% and P3=80%

Computation according to cropping structure

Page 15: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

Drought impact index

F

%100×=p

dd F

FR

where Rd represents the impact of drought on food security, and Fp is the food production without drought.

To represent the impact of drought on grain production, as percentage of drought-induced loss to the total production

Page 16: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

Drought dataFood production Cropping & other data

DNDC model

Cropland SOC

Drought’s impact on food production

Models on drought & SOC relationship

The supported databases

Models on drought & food relationship

Drought’s impact on SOC dynamics

Statistic data

Evaluation of drought’s impacts

Procedures for analysis of drought’s impacts on grain production and climate change in China.

Page 17: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

• Drought attack on agriculture in China in recent years

• Spatial variation of drought intensity in China

• Annual loss of grain production due to drought attacks

• Impact of drought on food security in China

• Relationship between drought intensity and its impact on food security in China

Results and analysis

Page 18: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

Change of cropping areas under various levels of drought attack

0

2500

5000

7500

10000

12500

15000

17500

20000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year

Dro

ught

acr

eage

(Kha

)

Slight

Moderate

Severe

(a)

Arable land: 130 MhaCropping acreage: 155Mha

Page 19: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Dro

ught

inte

nsity

( %

)Change of agro-drought intensity in China

Page 20: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

Drought Intensity

<5% 5-10% 10-15% 15-25% >25%

(a) 1990-1995 (b) 1996-2000

(c) 2001-2005 (d) 2005

Page 21: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

Actual and potential food productions in China

Difference between actual and potential food productions in China

Page 22: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Impa

ct (

%)

Impact of drought on food security of China

Page 23: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

Drought-induced food production loss

<100Kt 100-500 500-10001000-2000 >2000Kt

(c) 2001-2005 (d) 2005

(a) 1990-1995 (b) 1996-2000

Page 24: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

(c) 2001-2005 (d) 2005

Spatial variation of drought impact on food production

(a) 1990-1995 (b) 1996-2000

<2% 2-5% 5-10% >10%

Page 25: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

y = 1.9747x + 0.5781R2 = 0.9784

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

Drought intensity %

Loss

(mt)

(a)

Relationship between drought-induced food production loss and drought intensity in China

Page 26: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

y = 0.3838x + 0.3265R2 = 0.9933

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

Drought intensity %

Impa

ct %

(b)

Relationship between drought’s impact on food production loss and drought intensity in China

Page 27: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

Conclusion

Each year 25-30 Mha of cropping land were under drought attack.

Drought intensity was 13.8% on average between 1990-2005, with maximumof 25% and minimum of 6%.

Drought induced 28 Mt of grain production loss, shaping an impact of 6% tototal grain production in China, shaping an impact of 3% inminimum and 10% in maximum on food security in China1996-2000 had the severest drought, with an intensity of 15.11% on averageand an annual food production loss of 32Mt, leading an impact of 6.1%.

Greater impacts of drought on grain production were observed in NortheasternChina and Northwestern China regions, including Shanxi, Shaanxi, JilinHeilongjiang and Inner Mongolia provinces.

Quantitatively an increase of 1% in drought intensity might lead to 2 Mt offood production loss, and an impact of 0.4% on total grain production.

Page 28: Qin Zhihao — Impacts of agro drought on grain production in china

Thank you!