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Q4 2013 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

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  • Q4 2013

    ManpowerEmploymentOutlook SurveyNorway

  • 2

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey NorwayManpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

    Contents

    Norway Employment Outlook 3Regional Comparisons 4Sector Comparisons 6 Global Employment Outlook 9International Comparisons – Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) 12International Comparisons – Americas 16International Comparisons – Asia Pacific 18 About ManpowerGroup 20 Om undersøkelsen 20

    Ordliste over bransjer 21

    Q4/

    13

  • 3

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

    Norway Employment OutlookThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for the fourth quarter 2013 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 750 employers in Norway. All survey participants were asked, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of Desember 2013 as compared to the current quarter?”

    Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employ-ment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.

    Hiring intentions decline by 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and are 4 percentage points weaker year-over-year.

    Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at +3% and is the weakest since 4Q 2009. While hiring prospects remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook is 4 percentage points weaker year-over-year.

    From this point forward, all data discussed in the com-mentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise.

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    412 83 1 8 9513 76 6 8 5311 81 5 8 738 86 3 5 728 88 2 6 739 87 1 6 437 89 1 4 3

    Increase Decrease No Change Don't KnowNet Employment

    OutlookSeasonallyAdjusted

    3rd quarter 2009 4th quarter 2009 1st quarter 2010 2nd quarter 2010 3rd quarter 2010 4th quarter 2010 1st quarter 2011

    1st quarter 2012 2nd quarter 2012 3rd quarter 2012 4th quarter 2012 1st quarter 2013 2nd quarter 2013 3rd quarter 2013 4th quarter 2013

    2nd quarter 2011 3rd quarter 2011 4th quarter 2011

    Norwegian employers report modest hiring intentions for the October-December time frame. With 7% of employers expecting to increase payrolls, 3% antici-pating a decrease and 89% forecasting no change, the resulting Net Employment Outlook stands at +4%.

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  • 4

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

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    South/West

    Northern

    Mid

    Greater Oslo

    Eastern

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook

    Employers anticipate workforce gains in all five regions during the October-December time frame. The most op-timistic hiring plans are reported in Mid Norway, where the Net Employment Outlook stands at +9%. Some job gains are anticipated in Greater Oslo and Northern Norway with Outlooks of +5% and +4%, respectively. Meanwhile, slow-paced hiring activity is forecast for both South/West and Eastern Norway with Outlooks of +2%.

    Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook for Mid Norway improves by 6 percentage points but the South/West Outlook is 4 percentage points weaker. Elsewhere, hir-ing plans remain relatively stable or are unchanged.

    When compared with 4Q 2012, hiring prospects weaken in four of the five regions. The most noteworthy declines of 8 and 7 percentage points are reported in the South/West and Greater Oslo, respectively. However, the Outlook for Mid Norway improves by 7 percentage points.

    Based on unadjusted survey data, employers expect to grow payrolls in all five regions during 4Q 2013, with the strongest hiring prospects reported in Mid Norway. However, hiring intentions weaken in three regions quarter-over-quarter and four regions year-over-year.

    Regional Comparisons

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

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    Eastern +2* (+3**)%Slow-paced job gains are expected in the coming quar-ter with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +2%. The Outlook remains relatively stable quarter-over-quarter but declines by 2 percentage points year-over-year.

    Based on unadjusted survey data, employers expect a mild hiring climate in the next three months. Hiring inten-tions remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter but decline slightly when compared with 4Q 2012.

    *Seasonally Adjusted Outlook **Net Employment Outlook

    renataTypewritten Text

    renataTypewritten Text

  • 5

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

    Mid +9 (+9)%Job seekers can expect to benefit from a cautiously optimistic hiring pace in 4Q 2013 with employers report-ing a Net Employment Outlook of +9%. Hiring prospects strengthen both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, by 6 and 7 percentage points, respectively.

    Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate some opportunities to increase payrolls during the com-ing quarter. The Outlook is slightly stronger quarter-over-quarter and improves moderately year-over-year.

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

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    South/West +2 (+2)%Job seekers are likely to face the weakest labor market since 1Q 2011 in the coming quarter, according to em-ployers who report a Net Employment Outlook of +2%. Hiring intentions decline by 4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and are 8 percentage points weaker year-over-year.

    Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast slow-paced hiring activity in the next three months. Hiring plans are moderately weaker both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

    Northern +4 (+4)%Some job gains are expected in the October-December time frame with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +4%. Hiring intentions remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter but decline by 3 percentage points year-over-year.

    Based on unadjusted survey data, employers expect a conservative hiring pace in 4Q 2013. The Outlook is slightly weaker both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

    Greater Oslo +5 (+7)%Employers anticipate some opportunities to grow staffing levels in the next three months reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +5%. Hiring plans are unchanged when compared with 3Q 2013 but weaken by 7 percentage points year-over-year.

    Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report encouraging signs for job seekers in the coming quarter. The Outlook is slightly stronger quarter-over-quarter but moderately weaker year-over-year.

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

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  • 6

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

    Sector ComparisonsPayrolls are expected to grow in six of the nine indus-try sectors during the October-December time frame. Employers report the most optimistic hiring plans in the Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels sector and the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sector with Net Employment Outlooks of +11% and +10%, respectively. Construction sector employers report cautiously optimistic hiring plans with an Outlook of +7% and Outlooks stand at +6% in both the Mining & Quarry-ing sector and the Transport, Storage & Communication sector. However, employers report negative hiring pros-pects in three sectors including the Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing sector with an Outlook of -4%.

    Hiring plans improve in five of the nine industry sectors when compared with the previous quarter. The most noteworthy increases of 4 and 3 percentage points are reported by employers in the Construction sector and the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Ser-vices sector, respectively. Elsewhere, employers in two sectors report weaker hiring prospects, including the Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing sector with a 10 percentage point Outlook decline.

    Year-over-year, employers report weaker hiring pros-pects in eight of the nine industry sectors. A conside-rable decrease of 14 percentage points is reported in the Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing sector, while hiring plans are 7 percentage points weaker in the Construction sector. The Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sector Outlook declines by 6 percentage points and employers in the Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels sector report a 5 percent-age point decrease. Meanwhile, Manufacturing sector employers report unchanged hiring intentions.

    Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast workforce gains in seven of the nine industry sectors during the upcoming quarter. The most optimistic hiring plans are reported by employers in the Finance, Insu-rance, Real Estate & Business Services sector and the Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels sector. Quarter-over-quarter, hiring plans strengthen in four sectors but also decline in four. Year-over-year, employers report weaker hiring prospects in eight of the nine sectors.

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    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook

    Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels

    Transport, Storage & Communication

    Public & Social

    Mining & Quarrying

    Manufacturing

    Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services

    Electricity, Gas & Water

    Construction

    Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing

    Job seekers can expect to face the weakest hiring prospects since 1Q 2011 in the coming quarter with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of -4%. The Outlook is considerably weaker both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, declining by 10 and 14 percentage points, respectively.

    Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report downbeat hiring intentions for 4Q 2013. Hiring prospects weaken sharply when compared with the previous quarter and also decline considerably year-over-year.

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

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    Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing -4 (-8)%

  • 7

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

    Construction +7 (+9)%Employers report encouraging signs for job seekers in the October-December time frame with a Net Employment Outlook of +7%. Hiring plans improve by 4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter but decline by 7 percentage points year-over-year.

    Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast a cautiously optimistic hiring pace in the next three months. The Outlook is slightly stronger quarter-over-quarter but moderately weaker year-over-year.

    Electricity, Gas & Water -1 (+1 )%With a Net Employment Outlook of -1% for 4Q 2013 employers report uncertain hiring plans. While the Outlook is 2 percentage points stronger quarter-over-quarter, employers report a 3 percentage point year-over-year decline.

    Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report cautious hiring intentions for the coming quarter. Hiring prospects improve considerably when compared with the previous quarter but decline slightly year-over-year.

    Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services +10 (+13)%Some opportunities for payroll growth are expected in 4Q 2013 with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +10%. Hiring prospects improve by 3 per-centage points when compared with the previous quar-ter but weaken by 6 percentage points year-over-year.

    Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate a steady hiring pace in the coming quarter. Hiring inten-tions are moderately stronger quarter-over-quarter but moderately weaker year-over-year.

    Manufacturing +4 (+8)%Some job gains are likely in 4Q 2013 according to em-ployers who report a Net Employment Outlook of +4% for the second consecutive quarter. When compared with 4Q 2012, the Outlook is also unchanged.

    Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report cautiously optimistic hiring plans for the next three months. Hiring intentions are unchanged both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

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  • 8

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

    Mining & Quarrying +6 (+5)%Employers report encouraging signs for job seekers in the upcoming quarter with a Net Employment Outlook of +6%. Hiring plans remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter but decline by 4 percentage points year-over-year.

    Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate some workforce gains during the next three months. However, hiring plans are slightly weaker both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

    Public & Social -1 (-2)%With a Net Employment Outlook of -1% for the coming quarter employers match the weakest forecast for the sector since the survey began in 3Q 2003, last reported in 3Q 2012. Hiring intentions decline by 2 percentage points both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

    Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report uncertain hiring plans for the next three months. The Outlook is moderately weaker when compared with the previous quarter and also declines slightly year-over-year.

    Transport, Storage & Communication +6 (+5)%Employers expect some hiring opportunities in 4Q 2013 and report a Net Employment Outlook of +6%. Hiring plans strengthen by 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter but weaken by 2 percentage points year-over-year.

    Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast a conservative hiring pace in the coming quarter. While the Outlook is slightly stronger quarter-over-quarter, employers report a slight year-over-year decline.

    Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels +11 (+11)%Steady hiring activity is anticipated in 4Q 2013 with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +11% for the second consecutive quarter. However, the Outlook declines by 5 percentage points year-over-year.

    Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report respectable hiring intentions for the next three months. However, hiring prospects are slightly weaker both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

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  • 9

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

    Global Employment Outlook

    Asia Pacific23%

    EMEA31%

    Americas46%

    For the Quarter 4 2013 research ManpowerGroup surveyed more than 65,000 human resources directors and senior hiring managers from public and private organizations worldwide: 46% of respondents come from 10 countries in the Americas; 23% from eight countries and territories across Asia Pacific; and 31% from 24 countries in EMEA.

    expected to rebound decisively following four consecutive quarters of relatively lackluster forecasts. Elsewhere in the Asia Pacific region, pay-rolls are expected to grow in each of the eight countries and territories. Net Employment Outlooks strengthen in three countries and territories in quarter-over-quarter comparisons, and weaken in two. Year-over-year, hiring plans improve in five, but weaken in three. The region’s weakest Outlook for the last three months of the year is reported by Australian employers.

    In the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region, overall hiring inten-tions are just nominally weaker than in the prior quarter. Employers forecast jobs gains in 11 of 24 countries in the fourth quarter, compared to 14 positive forecasts reported three months ago. Payroll cuts, on the other hand, are expected in 10 countries—the same as in 3Q 2013. Hiring plans improve in eight countries when compared to the prior quarter but weaken in 13. Year-over-year, the forecasts are stronger in eight countries but weaker in 15. Turkish employers report the region’s strongest hiring plans, while the weakest Outlook is reported in Italy. Employers remain cautiously optimistic in the United Kingdom with Outlooks improving in most industry sectors in comparison to both the prior quarter and last year at this time.

    Hiring plans in the Americas remain positive in each of the 10 countries participating in the research. When compared with the previous quarter, forecasts improve in three countries, weaken in four and are unchanged in three. The forecasts trend marginally weaker in a year-over-year com-parison, with Outlooks also improving in three countries but declining in seven. Employers in Panama forecast the region’s strongest fourth-quarter hiring pace while those in Argentina report the least optimistic hiring plans. Following four years of steady improvement, the Outlook in the United States is the most optimistic reported since 2Q 2008. The hiring pace in Brazil is expected to remain respectable through the end of the year despite a considerable decline in the Outlook year-over-year. Meanwhile, hiring activity is expected to continue at a steady pace in both Mexico and Canada.

    * Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data where available.

    The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is Manpower-Group’s quarterly index of employer hiring confidence. Over 65,000 hiring managers across 42 countries and territories were recently asked, “How do you anticipate total employment at your loca-tion to change in the three months to the end of December 2013 as compared to the current quarter?”

    Based on employer responses, general labor market conditions are expected to remain mostly positive with employers in 29 of the 42 coun-tries and territories reporting that they plan to boost payrolls by varying degrees during the fourth quarter. This compares with positive hiring intentions reported by employers in 32 of 42 countries and territories during the July-September time frame. Worldwide, hiring expectations are strongest in India, Taiwan, Panama, Singapore and Brazil. The weakest opportunities for job seekers are expected in Italy, Spain and Finland.

    When compared with forecasts from the prior quarter and last year at this time, the fourth-quarter research reveals few signs that global hiring momentum will improve by any notable degree. In fact, hiring prospects are stronger in only 14 of 42 countries and territories when compared with the prior quarter, weaken in 19 and are unchanged in nine. Out-looks are stronger in 16 countries and territories when compared to 4Q 2012, but hiring plans actually weaken in 25 and are unchanged in one. Overall, it appears that employers are carefully considering their options, and many are evidently prepared to adopt a wait-and-see attitude toward further hiring until they see clearer resolution to ongoing uncertainty in the marketplace.

    One notable exception is in India where fourth-quarter hiring plans are the most optimistic across the globe. In fact, India’s hiring pace is

    Survey Respondents by Region

  • 10

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Global

  • 11

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

    42 Countries and Territories 42 Countries and Territories

    STRONGER

    WEAKER WEAKER

    STRONGER

    Quarter-on-QuarterMovement

    Year-on-YearMovement

    India 16 pts.

    Guatemala 7 pts.

    Singapore 6 pts.

    South Africa 4 pts.

    Ireland 3 pts.

    Sweden 3 pts.

    Belgium 2 pts.

    Greece 2 pts.

    Poland 2 pts.

    Costa Rica 1 pt.

    France 1 pt.

    Hong Kong 1 pt.

    United Kingdom 1 pt.

    United States 1 pt.

    Argentina 0 pts.

    Canada 0 pts.

    China 0 pts.

    Czech Republic 0 pts.

    Japan 0 pts. 

    Netherlands 0 pts.

    Panama 0 pts.*

    Slovakia 0 pts.*

    Taiwan 0 pts.

    Norway -1 pt.

    Austria -2 pts.    

    Colombia -2 pts.

    Germany -2 pts.

    Spain -2 pts.

    Australia -3 pts.

    Hungary -3 pts.

    Italy -3 pts.

    Mexico -3 pts.

    Brazil -4 pts.

    Israel -4 pts.*

    Switzerland -4 pts.

    New Zealand -5 pts.

    Romania -5 pts.

    Turkey -6 pts.*

    Slovenia -7 pts.*

    Peru -8 pts.

    Bulgaria -10 pts.*

    Finland -11 pts.*

    India 22 pts.

    Greece 12 pts.

    South Africa 6 pts.

    Poland 5 pts.

    Guatemala 4 pts.

    Japan 4 pts.

    Argentina 3 pts.

    Hong Kong 3 pts.

    Ireland 3 pts.

    Slovakia 3 pts.*

    United Kingdom 3 pts.

    Singapore 2 pts.

    Taiwan 2 pts.

    United States 2 pts.

    Finland 1 pt.*

    Spain 1 pt.

    Czech Republic 0 pts.

    Bulgaria -1 pt.*

    Canada -1 pt.

    China -1 pt.

    France -1 pt.

    Netherlands -1 pt.

    New Zealand -1 pt.

    Sweden -1 pt.

    Belgium -2 pts.

    Panama -2 pts.*

    Austria -3 pts.

    Germany -3 pts. 

    Hungary -3 pts.

    Mexico -3 pts.

    Slovenia -3 pts.*

    Turkey -3 pts.*

    Colombia -4 pts.

    Israel -4 pts.*

    Norway -4 pts.

    Costa Rica -5 pts.

    Italy -5 pts.

    Australia -6 pts.

    Peru -6 pts.

    Switzerland -7 pts.

    Brazil -9 pts.

    Romania -12 pts.

    *Indicates unadjusted data.

  • 12

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

    ManpowerGroup interviewed more than 20,000 employers across 24 countries in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region to measure fourth-quarter hiring plans. Throughout the region the hiring pace is expected to be mixed. Positive hiring intentions are reported in 11 countries for the October-December time frame, negative hiring intentions are reported in 10 countries. When compared with the previous quarter, hiring plans improve in only eight countries and weaken in 13. In a year-over-year comparison, the decline in employer sentiment is even more pronounced; Outlooks weaken in 15 countries and improve in only eight. Jobs growth is expected to be strongest in Turkey, Israel and the United Kingdom and weakest in Italy, Spain and Finland.

    Employers in Turkey continue to report the most upbeat hiring plans in the region. And despite the country’s Outlook softening in both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparisons, forecasts in all industry sectors and regions remain positive, with steady payroll gains expected in the country’s Manufacturing, Pharmaceu-tical and Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors.

    Elsewhere in the region, hiring plans are decidedly more uncertain. Opportunities for job seekers are expected to remain flat in France. Unemployment is the highest since 1999 and negative Outlooks are reported by employers in six of the country’s 10 industry sectors. Additionally, the forecast in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector sinks to its weakest level in more than four years despite an

    unexpected uptick in consumer spending. A notable exception to this subdued hiring activity is seen in the Finance & Business Services sector where hiring plans climb to the strongest level in over two years.

    German employers post their weakest fourth-quarter forecast since 2009. However, the country’s unemploy-ment rate is the second lowest in the European Union and the vast majority of employers say they plan to keep their current workforces intact through the next three months. Opportunities for job seekers remain favorable in the Finance & Business Services sector, but hiring activity in the country’s Manufacturing sector is expect-ed to remain relatively soft. Meanwhile, the Outlook in Switzerland has again turned negative and matches the least optimistic forecast ever reported by Swiss employ-ers. Dutch employers report a negative forecast for the sixth consecutive quarter, despite a cautiously optimistic Outlook reported by Construction sector employers.

    Employers in the United Kingdom are evidently respon-ding to encouraging signs in the marketplace and continue to report cautiously optimistic hiring plans. Job seekers can expect to benefit from steady gains in the Finance & Business Services sector. And employers in two regions are anticipating noteworthy payroll gains through the end of the year: the Outlook in the East region is the strongest reported in nine years, while the forecast in the North West region is the strongest in over six years.

    International Comparisons – EMEA

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    Austria Belgium

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    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

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    Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    Bulgaria joined the survey in Q1 2011.

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    Czech Republic joined the survey in Q2 2008.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

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    Bulgaria Czech Republic

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    Finland joined the survey in Q4 2012.

    Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

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    Finland France

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    Net Employment OutlookNet Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook

    Germany Greece

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    Hungary joined the survey in Q3 2009.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

    Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

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    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook

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    Hungary Ireland

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    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

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    Israel joined the survey in Q4 2011.

    Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

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    Israel Italy

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    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

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    Netherlands Norway

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    Poland joined the survey in Q2 2008.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

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    Romania joined the survey in Q2 2008.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Poland Romania

    Slovakia joined the survey in Q4 2011.

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    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Slovenia joined the survey in Q1 2011.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

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    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Slovakia Slovenia

  • 15

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

    South Africa joined the survey in Q4 2006.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

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    -20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    South Africa Spain

    No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Switzerland joined the survey in Q3 2005.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Sweden Switzerland

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Turkey joined the survey in Q1 2011.

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

    Turkey UK

  • 16

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

    Nearly 30,000 employers from 10 countries in North, Central and South America took part in the latest ManpowerGroup research to gauge expected hiring activity through the end of the calendar year.

    Outlooks remain positive throughout the region, although the pace of hiring is expected to slow in four countries and strengthen in only three when compared to the prior quarter’s forecast. In a year-over-year comparison, hiring plans strengthen in three countries but weaken in the re-maining seven. Job prospects are strongest in Panama, Brazil and Guatemala, and - as in the previous quarter-weakest in Argentina, Canada and Costa Rica.

    The hiring pace in Panama is expected to remain active in the October-December time frame with solid Out-looks reported in each of the country’s industry sectors. Despite the end of major work on the expansion of the Panama Canal, much still remains to complete the proj-ect. This, combined with ongoing construction of other infrastructure and hospitality projects, continues to generate demand for a variety of skills.

    Brazil’s Outlook remains stronger than in most countries participating in the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, and employers continue to anticipate solid fourth-quarter payroll growth in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate and the Services sectors. But clearly demand for workers is decreasing as Outlooks weaken

    across most industry sectors and regions in both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparisons.

    Opportunities for job seekers continue to expand in the United States. Positive forecasts are reported in each of the country’s industry sectors and regions, and the Outlook now stands at its strongest level since 2Q 2008. Hiring plans are strongest among employers in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector. Hiring plans in Mexico decline slightly from both the prior quarter and a year ago. However, Outlooks remain positive in each of the country’s industry sectors and regions. Hiring plans are particularly upbeat in the Manufacturing and Services sectors where approximately a quarter of all employers surveyed said they intended to add to their payrolls in the fourth quarter.

    Optimism remains measured among Canadian employ-ers; Outlooks are positive in all industry sectors and regions, but forecasts weaken by varying degrees in six of 10 sectors and three of four regions year-over-year. Construction sector employers report the strongest fourth-quarter hiring intentions with over one in four planning to add to their payrolls in the last three months of the year. In Argentina, meanwhile, a high inflation rate is causing a corresponding rise in wages, and employ-ers are expecting only modest jobs growth in the fourth quarter.

    International Comparisons – Americas

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Argentina joined the survey in Q1 2007.

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    Brazil joined the survey in Q4 2009.2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    Argentina Brazil

  • 17

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -202004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    Colombia joined the survey in Q4 2008.

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -202004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    Canada Colombia

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    Costa Rica joined the survey in Q3 2006.

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    Guatemala joined the survey in Q2 2008.

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Costa Rica Guatemala

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    Panama joined the survey in Q2 2010.

    Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Mexico Panama

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    Peru joined the survey in Q2 2006.

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

    Peru USA

  • 18

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

    ManpowerGroup interviewed over 15,000 employers from eight countries and territories to measure fourth-quarter hiring intentions in the Asia Pacific region. Positive forecasts are reported throughout the region, with hiring plans growing stronger in three countries quarter-over-quarter but declining in two. In a year-over-year comparison, Outlooks improve in five countries and territories but weaken in the remaining three. The most optimistic Net Employment Outlooks are reported in India, Taiwan and Singapore. Meanwhile, the Outlook in Australia continues to trend softer, declining to its weakest level in more than four years.

    India’s Net Employment Outlook rebounds dramatically from the July-September time frame, with employers reporting considerably stronger confidence across all regions and nearly all industry sectors in comparison to both 3Q 2013 and 4Q 2012 levels. Job seekers are likely to benefit from a surge in demand for talent among firms in IT/ITeS, banking and construction. Furthermore, despite the re-emergence of robust growth in India’s established industrialized areas, jobs growth is expected to be even stronger in the less industrialized sites of India’s North region—including the states of Jharkand and Bihar. Still, employability skills remain a challenge for a number of Indian hiring managers. Many acknowledge that there is an abundance of business and engineering graduates, but that too many of them lack the soft skills that are increasingly necessary as India becomes even more interconnected to the global marketplace.

    Opportunities for job seekers continue to be bright in Taiwan. Employers are exceedingly optimistic across all industry sectors. Outlooks are positive and improve i n five of six industry sectors year-over-year with hiring opportunities growing considerably in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate and the Mining & Construction sectors compared to last year at this time. Hiring inten-tions also remain positive in Japan where Outlooks improve by varying degrees in all industry sectors compared to year-ago levels.

    In mainland China, Outlooks remain positive in all industry sectors and regions. However, employer hiring plans continue to decline in year-over-year comparisons across most sectors and regions. The most noteworthy declines in employer confidence are reported in the Mining & Construction, Services, and the Transportation & Utilities industry sectors—downturns which might be partly explained by the government’s stated intention to shift from government-backed investment projects to a more consumer-driven economy.

    Employers in Australia are even less optimistic and for the sixth consecutive quarter report the region’s weak-est hiring plans. Much of this uncertainty stems from the sharp, ongoing decline of the country’s mining industry, as well as associated industries such as construction and transportation.

    International Comparisons – Asia Pacific

    50

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    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013China joined the survey in Q2 2005.

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -202004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    Australia China

  • 19

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    India joined the survey in Q3 2005.

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Hong Kong India

    50

    40

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    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    50

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    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    New Zealand joined the survey in Q2 2004.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Japan New Zealand

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    -60-50-40-30-20-10

    010203040506070 50

    40

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    0

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    -20

    Taiwan joined the survey in Q2 2005.

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Singapore Taiwan

  • 20

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

    Om undersøkelsen Regioner:

    Stor-Oslo: Oslo, Akershus

    Østlandet: Hedmark, Oppland, Telemark, Buskerud, Østfold, Vestfold

    Sør- og Vestlandet: Agder, Rogaland, Hordaland, Sogn og Fjordane

    Midt-Norge: Møre og Romsdal, Sør og Nord Trøndelag

    Nord-Norge: Nordland, Troms, Finnmark Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer blir gjennomført kvartalsvis for å måle arbeidsgivernes planer om å øke eller redusere arbeidsstyrken i løpet av det neste kvartalet. Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsundersøkelse er den mest omfattende, pålitelige og framtidsrettede bemannings- undersøkelse i verden. Undersøkelsen er blitt utført i mer enn 50 år. Forskjellige faktorer underbygger suksessen til Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer:

    Unik: Undersøkelsen har ingen paralleller i størrelse, omfang, levetid og fokusområde.

    Ser fremover: Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer er en undersøkelse som ser fremover, idet den spør arbeids- givere om å forutsi bemanning i det kommende kvartal. Dette i motsetning til andre undersøkelser som fokuserer på retrospektive data og rapporterer hva som hendte tidligere.

    Fokusert: I mer enn 50 år har undersøkelsen vært basert på ett og samme spørsmål.

    Uavhengig: Undersøkelsen er utført blant utvalgte repre-sentanter fra arbeidsgivere i hvert enkelt land. Arbeidsgiverne er valgt uavhengig av om de er kunder av ManpowerGroup.

    Omfattende: Undersøkelsen er basert på intervjuer med over 65 000 offentlige og private arbeidsgivere i 42 land og landområder for å måle forventet arbeidsmarkedstrend hvert kvartal. Dette utvalget bidrar til at analyser kan utføres i spesielle sektorer og regioner og derved fremskaffe detaljert informasjon.

    Spørsmålet i undersøkelsenAlle arbeidsgivere som deltar i undersøkelsen globalt blir stilt det samme spørsmålet, ”Hvilken endring i antall ansatte for-venter du i din bedrift for neste kvartal som ender i desember 2013 i forhold til forrige kvartal?”

    MetodikkUndersøkelsen er utført ved en godkjent metodikk i tråd med de beste kvalitetsnormer for denne typen undersøkelser. Undersøkelsesgruppene for de 42 land og landområdene hvor undersøkelsen gjennomføres inkluderer ManpowerGroups Internal Research Team and Infocorp Ltd. Undersøkelsen er strukturert slik at den er representativ for hvert enkelt lands- økonomi. Feilmarginen for alle nasjonale, lokale og globale data er ikke større enn +/- 3.9 %. I Norge er 750 arbeidsgivere spurt. Dette antallet intervjuer gir en feilmargin for den norske del av undersøkelsen på +/- 3.6 %.

    Netto forventet bemanningI denne rapporten benytter vi utrykket ”netto forventet bemanning”. Dette tallet er beregnet ved å ta prosenten av arbeidsgivere som forventer en økning i antall ansatte og trekke fra prosentandelen av arbeidsgivere som forventer en nedgang i antall ansatte i sin bedrift for neste kvartal.Resultatene sammenlignes både med forrige kvartal, omtalt som kvartalsvis, og med samme kvartal året før, omtalt som på årsbasis.

    SesongjusteringerSesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra Argentina, Australia, Belgia, Brasil, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Frankrike, Guatemala, Hellas, Hongkong, India, Irland, Italia, Japan, Kina, Mexico, Nederland, New Zealand, Norge, Peru, Polen, Romania, Singapore, Sør-Afrika, Spania, Sverige, Sveits, Storbritannia, Taiwan, Tsjekkia, Tyskland, Ungarn, USA og Østerrike for å gi større innsikt i undersøkelsestallene. Disse justeringene gjør det mulig å vurdere resultatene uten de ansettelsesfluktuasjoner som normalt oppstår på samme tid hvert år slik at vi får et tydeligere bilde av situasjonen over tid. ManpowerGroup ønsker å foreta disse justeringene for de øvrige landene etter hvert som flere historiske data er innsamlet.

    Om ManpowerGroup ManpowerGroup arbeider med selskaper og mennesker over hele verden. Dette gir oss forståelse og kunnskap om dagens og fremtidens arbeidsmarked. ManpowerGroup er verdensledende i å finne riktig bemanningsløsning ut i fra det enkelte individs potensiale og bedriftens ambisjoner. På denne måten skaper vi ”Innovative Workforce Solutions”. ManpowerGroup hjelper små og store bedrifter i alle bransjer under fire varemerker: Experis, Manpower, ManpowerGroup Solutions og Right Management. Vi er lokalisert i mer enn 80 land og landområder over hele verden. Ved global forståelse og lokal kompetanse øker vi våre kunders suksess. Virksomheten i Norge genererer over 35 000 oppdrag årlig. Vi har kontorer i 33 byer og tettsteder og 11 000 medar-beidere knyttet til oss. ManpowerGroup er en samfunnsansvarlig bedrift, vi er opptatt av mangfold og ser alltid etter kvalifiserte kandidater uavhengig av alder, kjønn, funksjonsevne og kulturell bakgrunn.

  • 21

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Norway

    Historikk1962: Første versjon av Manpowers arbeidsmarkeds- barometer ble lansert i USA og Canada.

    1966: Storbritannia lanserer en undersøkelse tilsvarende den i USA, men kaller den for ”ManpowerGroups kvartalsvise bemanningsprognose”. Denne under- søkelsen benytter den samme fremtidsforskning som den amerikanske undersøkelsen og er den første i sitt slag i Europa.

    1976: Andre versjon av Manpowers arbeidsmarkeds- barometer blir lansert i USA og Canada. Forsknings- metodikken blir oppdatert i henhold til utviklingen av markedsundersøkelser.

    2002: ManpowerGroup i Storbritannia benytter en forbedret undersøkelsesmetode i sin kvartalsvise arbeids- markedsundersøkelse. ManpowerGroups kontorer i Mexico og Irland lanserer undersøkelsen i sine respektive land.

    2003: Tredje versjon av Manpowers arbeidsmarkeds- barometer (MEOS) blir lansert for å utvide program- met til totalt 18 land: Australia, Østerrike, Belgia, Canada, Frankrike, Tyskland, Hongkong, Irland, Italia, Japan, Mexico, Nederland, Norge, Singapore, Spania, Sverige, Storbritannia og USA.

    2004: ManpowerGroup i New Zealand lanserer Manpower- Groups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer.

    2005: ManpowerGroup i Taiwan, Kina, India og Sveits lanserer Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer.

    2006: ManpowerGroup i Costa Rica, Peru og Sør-Afrika lanserer ManpowerGroups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer. Sesongjusteringer i tredje kvartal er innarbeidet i tallene fra Australia, Østerrike, Belgia, Frankrike, Tyskland, Hongkong, Irland, Italia, Japan, Mexico, Nederland, Norge, Singapore, Spania og Sverige.

    2007: ManpowerGroup i Argentina lanserer Manpower- Groups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer. Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra New Zealand fra første kvartal.

    2008: ManpowerGroup i Colombia, Hellas, Tsjekkia, Polen, Romania og Guatemala lanserer ManpowerGroups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer. Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra Kina og Taiwan i andre kvartal, og i tredje kvartal i tallene fra Sveits og Taiwan.

    2009: ManpowerGroup i Ungarn lanserer ManpowerGroups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer i tredje kvartal og Brasil i fjerde kvartal.

    2010: ManpowerGroup i Panama lanserer Manpower- Groups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer i andre kvartal. Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra Peru i andre kvartal og i Costa Rica i fjerde kvartal.

    2011: Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer lanseres i første kvartal i Manpower i Bulgaria, Slovenia og Tyrkia. Sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i første kvartal i tallene fra Argentina og Sør-Afrika.

    Manpowers arbeidsmarkedsbarometer lanseres i Israel og Slovakia i fjerde kvartal.

    2012: ManpowerGroup i Tsjekkia, Hellas, Guatemala, Polen og Romania innarbeider sesongjusteringer i tallene fra andre kvartal. ManpowerGroup i Finland lanserer ManpowerGroups arbeidsmarkedsbarometer i fjerde kvartal og sesongjusteringer er innarbeidet i tallene fra Colombia for første gang.

    2013: ManpowerGroup i Ungarn innarbeider sesong- justeringer i tallene fra tredje kvartal og Brasil fra fjerde kvartal.

    Ordliste over bransjerAgriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing Jordbruk, skogbruk, jakt og fiske

    Construction Bygg og anlegg

    Electricity, Gas & Water Elektrisitet-, gass- og vannforsyning

    Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services Finans, forsikring, eiendom og konsulenttjenester

    Manufacturing Industri

    Mining & Quarrying Olje og gass

    Public & Social Offentlig tjenesteyting

    Transport, Storage & Communication Transport og logistikk

    Wholesale, Retail, Restaurants & Hotels Handel og service

  • Manpower AS, Tordenskiolds gate 2, 0160 OsloTel: (+)47 22 01 80 00www.manpower.no

    © 2013, ManpowerGroup. All rights reserved.

    ManpowerEmploymentOutlook SurveyContentsNorway Employment OutlookRegional ComparisonsEasternGreater OsloMidNorthernSouth/West

    Sector ComparisonsAgriculture, Hunting, Forestry & FishingConstructionElectricity, Gas & WaterFinance, Insurance, Real Estate &Business ServicesManufacturingMining & QuarryingPublic & SocialTransport, Storage & CommunicationWholesale, Retail, Restaurants &Hotels

    Global Employment OutlookInternational Comparisons – EMEAAustria, BelgiumBulgaria,Czech Republic, FinlandFrance, Germany, GreeceHungary, IrelandIsrael, Italy, NetherlandsNorway, Poland, RomaniaSlovakia, SloveniaSouth Africa, Spain, SwedenSwitzerland, Turkey, UK

    International Comparisons – AmericasArgentina, BrazilCanada, Colombia, Costa RicaGuatemala, Mexico, PanamaPeru, USA

    International Comparisons – Asia PacificAustralia, ChinaHong Kong, India, JapanNew Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan

    Om ManpowerGroupOm undersøkelsenHistorikkOrdliste over bransjer