puget sound recovery through the eyes of an …€¦ · puget sound recovery through the eyes of an...

Puget Sound recovery through the eyes of an Atlantis ecosystem model

1Raphael Girardin2Isaac Kaplan2Chris Harvey

1Long Live the Kings2NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center

Photo: IRMiller

Salmon recovery: survival of Salmon early stage in Puget Sound

Predation

?

Competition

Prey availability/ quality

time

biomass

time

biomass

Stormwater

Images: UMCES (IAN);

King County; NOAA; WDFW

Sutherland et al. (2011)

Atlantis dynamic structure

Hydrographicsubmodel

BiogeochemistryClimate,

oceanography

Fulton, E. A. 2004. Ecological Modelling, 173:371-406



Biogeochemistry

Habitat

Climate,oceanography

Food web

Ecologysubmodel

Human sectors

Human impactssubmodel


Sutherland et al. (2011)



Biogeochemistry

Habitat

Climate,oceanography

Food web

Ecologysubmodel

Human sectors

Human impactssubmodel

3D dimensional structure of Atlantis

Daily/12h oceanographic fluxes

(water, heat, salinity)

into, out of each box are

controlled by a

circulation model


abcdef0 m

5

25

50

150

350

100

®

bgm_Puget_Sound_89b_0p0001

BOTZ

0

5

25

50

100

150

350

Salish_Sea

abcdef

groundfish

salmon

3D dimensional structure of Atlantis

Image: WDFW

South Georgia Straits

San Juan Islands Padilla

Bay

E Strait of Juan de Fuca Whidbey

Basin

Admiralty Inlet

Hood Canal

Central PugetSound

Carr-Nisqually

South Sound Inlets

Port Madison & Sinclair

Inlet

Gulf Island

Boundary boxes

Forage fish (here herring spawning ground)

4 primary producers, 5 zoo-

planktons, 12 invertebrates

33 fish composed of 19

salmon groups

3 birds, 4 selachians, 7

marine mammals

10 Benthic invertebrates

3 Birds

Shrimps

4 Rockfishes 19 Salmons

Puget Sound functional groups: California Current, EwE models, expert advice


King County; NOAA; WDFW

Seastars

Kelp

Seagrass

Squids

Zooplankton and

phytoplankton

Bivalves

4 selachians

2 Herrings

3 Forage fishes

Small demersal

9 Primary producers and planktons

Urchins

Octopi

Benthic infauna

Crabs 4 Cetaceans,

3 Pinnipeds

2 Flatfishes

Large demersal

predators

Large gadoids

Salmon functional groups in Puget Sound Atlantis ModelImages: WDFW

Species Chinook

sub-stocks (wild

stocks/ Hatchery)

Skagit NisquallyHood Canal

Other Hatchery

Run type YearlingSub-

yearlingYearling

Sub-yearling

Sub-yearling

YearlingSub-

yearlingYearling

Sub-yearling

Species Coho Chum Pink Cutthroat trout

Canadian Salmonids

sub-stocks (wild

stocks/ Hatchery)

Skagit Deep South

Other Hatchery Other Hood Canal

Hatchery All All All

Run type YearlingFall Sub-yearling

Summer Sub-

yearling

Sub-yearling

Sub-yearling

All All

Salmon life cycle into Puget Sound Atlantis model

1) River 'larval' stage

• Recruitment in Atlantis

2) Juvenile stage

• ATLANTIS

3) Pacific ocean stage

• Simple Pop. model

4) Adult stage

• ATLANTIS

5) River 'reproduction'

stage

Few years

Image source: http://www.returntoelwha.com/

Predation/prey relationship in Atlantis

Pre

y e

ate

n

Prey density

Type IType IIType III

VS

Predation/prey relationship in Atlantis

Copepods (mesozooplankton)

Microzooplankton(e.g ciliates)

Euphausiids(large zooplankton)

Diatoms (large phytoplankton)

Example: California Current sardine diets in an Atlantis simulation with increasing copepod abundance

Scenario with higher abundance of forage fish (Cherry Point herring and/or other forage fish) and availability of forage fish of the appropriate size Hypothesis: Decline in forage fish may limit early marine survival of Chinook and coho.

Scenario testing spawn timing of crabs: Hypothesis: match/mismatch of crab larvae and food needs of juv salmon is critical driver of salmon survival.

Scenario with effects of PDO and also climate change effects beginning in 1970’s.Hypothesis: this may have led to the change in salmon survival. Consider both climate “shift” and satellite data.

Scenario with increasing abundance of Noctiluca and gelatinous zooplankton. Hypothesis: shifts in energy flow toward Noctiluca and gelatinous zooplankton may decrease production of plankton species directly consumed by juvenile salmon.

Scenario artificially testing improved juvenile salmon growth: Hypothesis: if juvenile salmon grow faster, they may be able to grow enough to access a wider range of prey including herring; expect increased survival.

Prey availability/ quality

time

biomass

time

biomass

Salmon early marine survival hypotheses


Competition

Scenario with higher abundance of forage fish (Herring

and/or other forage fish) and availability of forage fish of the appropriate size Hypothesis: adult forage fish might compete for food with wild juvenile salmon

Scenario reducing stocking of hatchery fish: Hypothesis: competition for food may limit wild juvenile salmon growth and survival.

Scenario without pink salmon or with a reduction of their biomass. Hypothesis: competition from pink salmon may contribute to decline in Chinook and coho, as well as interannual variability (‘zig zag’). Note also competition between pink and herring, with potential indirect effects on Chinook.


Scenario with lower abundance of pinnipeds. Hypothesis: harbor seal consumption of smolts may be a major driver of early marine survival.

Scenario testing (artificially) higher abundances of gadoids/ forage fish. Hypothesis: Pinniped predation on smolts may have arisen due to lack of other prey resources.

Scenario artificially testing improved juvenile salmon growth: Hypothesis: if juvenile salmon grow faster, they may be able to grow beyond predator gape (e.g. birds) ; expect increased survival.

Scenario testing effect of stormwater. Hypothesis: juvenile development, survival, growth has declinedfor particular stocks due to toxins in stormwater at those locations.

Predation

Stormwater

Strength and limits of Atlantis: The Strategic Role of Atlantis

Atlantis is a “sandbox” for understanding: • Trophic interactions• Cumulative impacts (Climate change, nutrient loading,

fishing pressure…)• Trade-offs between management objectives• Socio-economics and human behaviour

NOT intended for tactical management decisions

NOT intended to replace fisheries stock assessments

NOT fast enough for intensive parameter estimation

Atlantis is resource intensive to develop

Scenarios run for several days

Not precise enough to study local small-scale scenarios

Acknowledgement

Others…


King County; NOAA; WDFWhttps://www.washington.edu/research/energy/researcher/mitsuhiro-kawase

Thank you for your attention

puget sound recovery through the eyes of an …€¦ · puget sound recovery through the eyes of an...

Documents