presented at: forecast 2014 southern nevada's commercial market landscape january 16, 2014
DESCRIPTION
S OUTHERN NEVADA’s. C OMMERCIAL R EAL E STATE M ARKETS. Presented at: Forecast 2014 Southern Nevada's Commercial Market Landscape January 16, 2014. INDUSTRIAL MARKET. Las Vegas Valley Submarket Inventory Map Industrial Market. The Industrial market continues to stabilize, - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Presented at:
FORECAST 2014SOUTHERN NEVADA'S COMMERCIAL MARKET
LANDSCAPEJanuary 16, 2014
SOUTHERN NEVADA’sCOMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS
2
INDUSTRIAL MARKET
Las Vegas Valley Submarket Inventory MapIndustrial Market
4
Industrial Vacancy & Asking Rents: 2003 - 2013
The Industrial market continues to stabilize,significant improvements during 2013.
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
Q4 '03 Q4 '04 Q4 '05 Q4 '06 Q4 '07 Q4 '08 Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 '11 Q4 '12 Q4 '13
Vacancy - Q4 '13 = 11.8%Asking Rents - Q4 '13 = $.52 PSF/Mo.
5
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
11.4%
15.9%
8.1%
11.3%
22.4%
17.2%
8.2% 7.6%
11.2%
17.9%
13.6%
6.9%
Q4 ‘13 Total11.8%
Product TypeComparison
SubmarketComparison
Vacancy varies by Product & Submarket. Lowest in Light Industrial & in West Central.
6
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-4,000,000
-2,000,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000Net Absorption - 2013 = 4.6 MSF
SFIndustrial Absorption & Completions:2003 - 2013
7
0 - 24,999
25,000 - 49,999
50,000 - 74,999
75,000 - 99,999
100,000 -
124,999
125,000 -
149,999
150,000 -
174,999
175,000 -
199,999
200,000+
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
1,653(91.9%)
98(5.5%) 26
(1.4%)11
(.6%)3
(.2%)2
(.1%)0
(0%)2
(.1%)3
(.2%)
Size Category
Num
ber
of A
vaila
ble
Uni
ts
Distribution of Industrial Available Space Units, by Size Category: Q4 2013
The Most Critical Industrial Chart
8
Vacant Inventory 10-Yr Avg. Absorption0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
SF
Vacant Inventory = 12.7MSF (11.8%)
Space to Absorb until 10% = 2MSF
40-Qtr Avg. Absorption = 550,200 SF
All UC projects are BTS (100% Occu-pied)
Estimate Less than 1 year
2MSF to absorb reach stabilized Vacancy-10%
Industrial Market Years of SupplyUntil 10% Stabilized Vacancy
9
OFFICE MARKET
Las Vegas Valley Submarket Inventory MapOffice Market
11
Spec Office Vacancy & Asking Rents: 2003 - 2013
The Office market made some headway in 2013 but it remains the weakest of the 3 markets.
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Q4 '03 Q4 '04 Q4 '05 Q4 '06 Q4 '07 Q4 '08 Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 '11 Q4 '12 Q4 '13
Vacancy - Q4 '13 = 23%Asking Rents - Q4 '13 = $1.82 PSF/Mo.
12
A B C Medical Airp. DownT. E. LV Hend. N. LV NW SW W. Cent.0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
29.6%
22.9%21.0%
22.3%20.4%
16.8%
26.7%24.1%
22.7% 23.0% 22.1%
26.0%
Q4 ‘13 Total23%
Product TypeComparison
SubmarketComparison
Vacancy highest in Class A and in E. LV & West Central.
13
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-2,000,000
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
Net Absorption - 2013 = 74,500 SF
SFOffice Absorption & Completions:2003 - 2013
14
Vacan
t Inv
ento
ry
Under
Constr
uctio
n
10-Yr
Avg. A
bsor
ption
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
SF
Vacant Inventory = 9.8 MSF (23%)
Space to Absorb until 10% = 6.1 MSF
40-Qtr Avg. Absorption = 213,000 SF
Under Construction** = 565,000 SF
Estimate 7 years
6.1 MSF to absorb until reaching stabilized vacancy-10%
Spec Office Market Years of SupplyUntil 10% Stabilized Vacancy
**Assuming UC space enters the market with vacancy at existing rate.
15
RETAIL MARKET
Las Vegas Valley Submarket Inventory MapRetail Market
17
Anchored Retail Vacancy & Asking Rents: 2003 - 2013
The anchored retail market is has improved, dueto rising consumer spending.
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
Q4 '03 Q4 '04 Q4 '05 Q4 '06 Q4 '07 Q4 '08 Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 '11 Q4 '12 Q4 '13
Vacancy - Q4 '13 = 11.7%Asking Rents - Q4 '13 = $1.32 PSF/Mo.
18
Power
Comm.
Neighb
.
DownT
Hend.
N. LV NE
NW SWUniv
. E
W. Cen
t.0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
10.6% 11.0%
13.1%14.1%
13.4%
10.6% 10.3%9.4%
7.9%
13.8%
17.1%Q4 ‘13 Total
11.7%
Product TypeComparison
SubmarketComparison
Vacancy highest in Neighborhood Centers and in & West Central.
19
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
Net Absorption - 2013 = 484,500 SF
SFRetail Absorption & Completions:2003 - 2013
20
Vacan
t Inv
ento
ry
Under
Constr
uctio
n
10-Yr
Avg. A
bsor
ption
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
SF
Vacant Inventory = 5.1 MSF (11.7%)
Space to Absorb until 10% = 1 MSF
40-Qtr Avg. Absorption = 187,200 SF
Under Construction** = 278,700 SF
Estimate 1 year
1 MSF to absorb until reaching stabilized vacancy-10%
**Assuming UC space enters the market with vacancy at existing rate.
Anchored Retail Market Years of SupplyUntil 10% Stabilized Vacancy
21
QUESTIONS
Sources: RCG Economics.
