Presentation on Presentation on

Global Employment TrendsGlobal Employment Trends2003/20042003/2004

Dorothea SchmidtDorothea Schmidt – Economist, Employment Trends – Economist, Employment Trends TeamTeamEmployment Strategy DepartmentEmployment Strategy DepartmentInternational Labour Office,International Labour Office,GenevaGenevawww.ilo.org/trendswww.ilo.org/trends

Agenda for todayAgenda for today

I.I. The Production and Publication The Production and Publication of Global Employment Trendsof Global Employment Trends

II.II. Global and Regional Global and Regional Employment Trends and Employment Trends and OutlookOutlook

III.III. Summary and ConclusionsSummary and Conclusions

II. The Production and Publication II. The Production and Publication of Global of Global Employment TrendsEmployment Trends

How do we know about global How do we know about global employment trends?employment trends?

National Source– Labour Offices– Local

Newspapers– Personal

Contacts– Universities– Etc.

ILO sourcesILO sources– KILMKILM– LMILLMIL– Statistical OfficeStatistical Office– Regional OfficesRegional Offices– Specialists within Specialists within

the ILOthe ILO– Etc.Etc.

Other sources– World Bank– IMF– OECD– WTO– Regional sources

(ADB)– Newspapers– Magazines– Journals– Etc.

I. The Production and Publication of Global Employment TrendsI. The Production and Publication of Global Employment Trends

What happens if we still don’t have What happens if we still don’t have information on specific countries?information on specific countries?

The Global Employment Trends ModelThe Global Employment Trends Model– Estimating missing labour market Estimating missing labour market

indicators based on other information indicators based on other information available like poverty, regional information, available like poverty, regional information, recent conflicts, historical development…recent conflicts, historical development…

Basis for the regional and world Basis for the regional and world estimatesestimates

How are the results of our research How are the results of our research brought to the public?brought to the public?

Global Employment Trends (every January)Global Employment Trends (every January)

Special Issues of the GET (on women, on youth) Special Issues of the GET (on women, on youth)

First Part of World Employment Report (September 2004)First Part of World Employment Report (September 2004)

First Part of Key Indicators of the Labour Market (September First Part of Key Indicators of the Labour Market (September

2005)2005)

SeminarsSeminars

Requests from constituents, governments and all kinds of Requests from constituents, governments and all kinds of

institutionsinstitutions

II. Global and Regional II. Global and Regional Employment Trends and Employment Trends and OutlookOutlook

What is working What is working poverty?poverty? A concept to judge on the A concept to judge on the

importance of employment for importance of employment for poverty reductionpoverty reduction

Definition: Somebody who works Definition: Somebody who works but does not earn enough to lift but does not earn enough to lift himself and his family above the himself and his family above the 1 US Dollar a day poverty line.1 US Dollar a day poverty line.

Total Unemployment Rates, both sexes, latest Total Unemployment Rates, both sexes, latest yearsyears

Source : KILM 2003Source : KILM 2003

1. Latin America and the Caribbean1. Latin America and the Caribbean

Main characteristics of the labour markets:

Unemployment rate in 2002: 9.0 %; in 2003: 8.0 %

Female unemployment rate 2003: 10.1 %

Employment to population ratio 2003: 59.3 %

Labour force participation rate: 64.5%, for every one hundred economically active men there are 64 economically active women

Annual labour force growth rate 1993-2003: 2.3 %; 1998-2003: 2.0 %

Youth unemployment rate 2003: total: 16.6 % (female: 20.8 %, male: 14.0 %

Others:•Informal economy: Employment in the informal sector slowed down in the early 90s but grew in 2001/2002•Education: Speed of improvement has slowed down•Working poor rate: 15 per cent

Caribbean

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Central America

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

South America

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Performance indices (1993=100)

Employment-to-population ratio

Unemployment rate

Real GDP

Employment-to-population ratio, unemployment rate and real GDP,Caribbean, Central America and South America, Index 1993=100, 1993-

2003

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, 2003

Employment outlook Expected GDP growth for 2004: 4.2 per cent (after 1.6 per cent

in 2003) Expected unemployment rate for 2004: just above 7 per cent GDP growth rate rate needed to halve working poverty and

unemployment: over 7 per cent, high but not impossible Important issue for policy-makers and social partners:

- make sure that growth is translated into decent work, which should be seen as one of the major preconditions for future GDP growth.

- creating employment in the formal economy

- focus on young people

2. East Asia2. East Asia

Main characteristics of the labour markets:

Unemployment rate in 2002: 3.1%, in 2003: 3.3%

Female unemployment rate 2003: 2.7%

Employment to population ratio 2003: 76.6%

Annual labour force growth rate 1993-2003: 1.3%; 1998-2003: 1.2%

Youth unemployment rate 2003: total: 7.0% (female: 5.8%, male: 8.1%)

Others: Working poor rate: 18% of the total number of employed

Employment outlook

Expected GDP growth for 2004: 7.1% (after 7.1% in 2003) Expected unemployment rate for 2004: no change expected GDP growth rate needed to halve working poverty and

unemployment by 2015: around 7% ► high likelihood to achieve the goal

Important issue for policy-makers and social partners:

- focus on high incidence of working poverty

- translate growth into decent employment

- Get institutional setting right

- proceed in educating people and infrastructural investment

3. South-East Asia3. South-East Asia

Main characteristics of the labour markets:

Unemployment rate in 2002: 7.1%, in 2003: 6.3%

Female unemployment rate 2003: 6.9%

Employment to population ratio 2003: 67.1%

Annual labour force growth rate 1993-2003: 2.4%; 1998-2003: 2.6%

Youth unemployent rate 2003: total: 16.4% (female: 17.6%, male: 15.5%)

Others: Working poor rate: 10% of all people employed

Employment outlook

Expected GDP growth for 2004: 4.5% (after 4.1% in 2003) Expected unemployment rate for 2004: no change expected GDP growth rate rate needed to halve working poverty and

unemployment by 2015: over 6%

► some economies have a high chance (including Fiji, Malaysia, Thailand, Viet Nam, others are unlikely to reach the goal

Important issue for policy-makers and social partners:

- youth unemployment

- working poverty

- structural shifts

4. South Asia4. South Asia

Main characteristics of the labour markets:

Unemployment rate in 2002: 4.8%, in 2003: 4.8%

Female unemployment rate 2003: 6.2%

Employment to population ratio 2003: 57%

Annual labour force growth rate 1993-2003: 2.3%; 1998-2003: 2.3%

Youth unemployment rate 2003: total: 13.9% (female: 15.9%, male: 13.0%)

Others: •high incidence of working poverty (40 %) and informal economy employment (90% in India); •strong dependency on agriculture (70% of employment in India)

Employment outlook

Expected GDP growth for 2004: 5.8% (after 5.1% in 2003)

Expected unemployment rate for 2004: slight increase to 5%

GDP growth rate needed to halve working poverty and unemployment: over 6%, not impossible

Important issue for policy-makers and social partners:

- low level of education

- high dependency on agriculture

- high incidence of working poverty

- big difference between male and female LFPR

5. Middle East and North Africa5. Middle East and North Africa

Main characteristics of the labour markets:

Unemployment rate in 2002: 11.9%, in 2003: 12.2%

Female unemployment rate 2003: 16.5%

Employment to population ratio 2003: 46.4%

Annual labour force growth rate 1993-2003: 3.3%; 1998-2003: 3.1%

Youth unemployment rate 2003: total: 25.6% (female: 31.7%, male: 22.7%)

Others: •Working poverty rate: 8%•Low labour force participation rate for women

Employment outlook

Expected GDP growth for 2004: 4.3% (after 4.4% in 2003) Expected unemployment rate for 2004: again over 12% GDP growth rate rate needed to halve working poverty and

unemployment: 10 per cent ► rather unrealistic

Important issues for policy-makers and social partners:

- unused female potential

- youth unemployment

- more openness to trade

- Improving governance, enhancing the quality of Improving governance, enhancing the quality of public public institutions and enforcing public institutions and enforcing public

accountabilityaccountability

6. Sub Saharan Africa6. Sub Saharan Africa

Main characteristics of the labour markets:

Unemployment rate in 2002: 10.8%, in 2003: 10.9%

Female unemployment rate 2003: 9.6%

Employment to population ratio 2003: 11.8%

Annual labour force growth rate 1993-2003: 2.8%; 1998-2003: 2.7%

Youth unemployment rate 2003: total: 21.0% (female: 18.4%, male: 23.1%)

Others: - Threat of HIV/AIDS for labour markets- Low levels of education plus brain drain- high incidence of working poverty (over 40 per cent)- high dependency on low productivity agricultural sector

Employment outlook for 2004

Expected GDP growth: 4.7% (after 3.6% in 2003)

Expected unemployment rate for 2004: slight decrease expected to around 10.5%

GDP growth rate needed to halve working poverty and unemployment: more than three times more than in the last ten years (over 12 per cent) ► very unlikely

Important issue for policy-makers and social partners:

- informal sector employment and working poverty

- youth unemployment and brain drain

- HIV/AIDS

7. Transition Economies7. Transition Economies

Main characteristics of the labour markets:

Unemployment rate in 2002: 9.4%, in 2003: 9.2%

Female unemployment rate 2003: 9.2%

Employment to population ratio 2003: 53.8%

Annual labour force growth rate 1993-2003: -0.1%; 1998-2003: 0.7%

Youth unemployment rate 2003: total: 18.6% (female: 19.2%, male: 18.1%)

Others: equal employment opportunities for women

Employment outlook for 2004

Expected GDP growth: 4.1% (after 4.1% in 2003)

Expected unemployment rate for 2004:over 9%

GDP growth rate needed to halve working poverty and unemployment: 4% ► achievable

Important issue for policy-makers and social partners:

- Youth unemployment

- Again population in the medium run

8. Industrialized Economies8. Industrialized Economies

Main characteristics of the labour markets:

Unemployment rate in 2002: 6.8%, in 2003: 6.8%

Female unemployment rate 2003: 7.0%

Employment to population ratio 2003: 56.1%

Annual labour force growth rate 1993-2003: 0.8%, 1998-2003: 0.6%

Youth unemployment rate 2003: total: 13.4% (female: 12.5%, male: 14.1%)

Others. Aging population

Employment outlook for 2004

Expected GDP growth: 2.8% (after 1.8% in 2003)

Expected unemployment rate for 2004: slight improvement to 6.6%

Important issue for policy-makers and social partners:

- Avoid long-lasting jobless growth in the US

- Aging population

- Youth unemployment

II. Summary and ConclusionsII. Summary and Conclusions

At the end of 2003…At the end of 2003…

… … the number of unemployed people worldwide has reached the number of unemployed people worldwide has reached

the new height of 185.9 million. We expect a slight decrease in the new height of 185.9 million. We expect a slight decrease in

2004.2004.

……there are 550 working poor just as in 2002, 60% of which there are 550 working poor just as in 2002, 60% of which

were women. We expect a slight decrease in 2004.were women. We expect a slight decrease in 2004.

……women and young people are suffering most. women and young people are suffering most.

III. Summary and Conclusions

Latin America and the Caribbean had….Latin America and the Caribbean had….

……the fourth highest unemployment rate of all 8 regionsthe fourth highest unemployment rate of all 8 regions

……the second highest gap between unemployment rates for male the second highest gap between unemployment rates for male

and femaleand female

……the third highest gender gap in labour force participation the third highest gender gap in labour force participation

ratesrates

……the fourth highest youth unemployment rate and the second the fourth highest youth unemployment rate and the second

highest female youth unemployment ratehighest female youth unemployment rate

……the fourth highest share of working poorthe fourth highest share of working poor

Unemployment rates: Unemployment rates: Total, female and youth, by region, 2003, percentageTotal, female and youth, by region, 2003, percentage

8.06.3

4.86.8

9.210.9

12.210.1

2.7

6.9 6.2 7.09.2 9.6

16.5

7.0

16.413.9

18.621.0

25.6

3.3

13.416.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Latin Americaand Caribbean

East Asia South-East Asia South Asia Industrializedeconomies

Transitioneconomies

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Middle East andNorth Africa

%

Total Female Youth

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, 2003

Long term outlook for employment Long term outlook for employment and political challenges:and political challenges:

– The developing regions will account for an increased portion of the The developing regions will account for an increased portion of the labour force by 2015. The bulk of new jobs must come in Asia and labour force by 2015. The bulk of new jobs must come in Asia and SSASSA

– Youth unemployment is one of the biggest problems worldwide and Youth unemployment is one of the biggest problems worldwide and needs to be addressed everywhereneeds to be addressed everywhere

– Gender inequality will stay on unless policy makers as well as social Gender inequality will stay on unless policy makers as well as social partners realize the special problems of women in labour marketspartners realize the special problems of women in labour markets

– Poverty, hand in hand with growing unemployment and Poverty, hand in hand with growing unemployment and underemployment, inhibits employment growth. Because of a lack of underemployment, inhibits employment growth. Because of a lack of education, health and often empowerment, poor people cannot use education, health and often empowerment, poor people cannot use their own potential to lift themselves and their families out of their own potential to lift themselves and their families out of poverty. Pro-poor policies should be designed to provide this poverty. Pro-poor policies should be designed to provide this possibility by means of a decent job.possibility by means of a decent job.

– Jobless growth is not affordableJobless growth is not affordable in the long run in the long run