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  • 1. pg. 1Mantra for Innovative Project ManagementPiyush JainSenior Delivery ManagerInfosys Limited

2. pg. 2Effective Talent ManagementPredictive Model for Skill Based ForecastingByPiyush Jain, Senior Delivery Manager, Infosys LimitedVinay Prabhu, Delivery Manager, Infosys Limited 3. ContentsAbstract .................................................................................................................................................................4Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................4Context to the paper ...............................................................................................................................................4Typical Talent Forecasting Model ............................................................................................................................5Shortcomings of the Typical Talent Forecasting Model ..............................................................................................5Our approach to forecasting talent needs .................................................................................................................6Talent skill repository ...........................................................................................................................................6Skill based Talent Forecasting Model .......................................................................................................................6Input Parameters (for each skill) ...........................................................................................................................7Derived Parameters (for each skill) .......................................................................................................................8Working of the Model ..............................................................................................................................................8Observations ..........................................................................................................................................................9Assumptions & Scope for further development ....................................................................................................... 10Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................... 10References .......................................................................................................................................................... 10Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................................. 10About the Authors ................................................................................................................................................. 11pg. 3Note: All data shown in this paper is simulated. Actual data has not been used due to confidentiality reasons. 4. pg. 4AbstractThe world of today is a fast place. Patience is no more a virtue but a bane. Longevity is now measured in quarters andnot years. Clients are scrambling to appease customers by trying to release new products, new software versions,more features, software upgrades, release patches and so on almost on a quarterly basis. The pace is relentless andits consequences are being felt across project management functions.One function that organizations have to rapidly focus is the talent management function. As project timelines getcrunched and clients demand higher productivity with fast ramp ups, there is constant flux in terms of people demandsfor staffing project engagements. Availability of right people with the right skills at the right time is often the di fferencebetween project success and failure. In light of this it is extremely important for IT services companies to ensure theyhave a good model for talent forecasting leading to right sourcing and optimal utilization.Almost all companies have some model or the other that is used for forecasting talent demand leading to talentacquisition. However, most models tend to focus only on future demands to arrive at absolute acquisition numbers. Inour opinion this is a sub optimal model. In this paper we pres ent a skill based talent forecasting model that would helppredict the skill utilizations more accurately. We believe this model would assist talent managers in managing the talentpools more efficiently, thus optimizing their talent acquisition costs and ensuring optimum utilization levels.IntroductionTalent Management has always been a key function for any enterprise. For a human resource intensive industry like ITservices, its importance is magni fied many times more. Talent Management refers to the anticipation of requiredhuman capital for an organization and the planning to meet those needs. It is the science of using strategic HR toimprove business value and to make it possible for companies to reach thei r goals. Everything done to recruit, retain,develop, reward and make people perform forms a part of talent management as well as strategic workforceplanning[1].The challenges in the current business scenario have precipitated the need for strategic and innovative approaches intalent management for the purpose of achieving business objectives and gaining competitive advantage.The cycle ofworkforce planning includes filling resource requests, analysing resource utilization, forecasting capacity, managingand identifying the human resources to fill that capacity, and then restarting the cycle[2].The scope of this paper is limited to the forecasting aspect of workforce planning. Through this paper we will explorehow skill plays a crucial role in forecasting of talent requi rement. We take the opportunity to present a predictive modelthat considers skill attributes for talent forecasting and how that would help in ensuring the right focus on optimal talentutilization and better talent sourcing strategies.Context to the paperThe paper focuses on our experience of deploying skill based forecasting method for workforce planning. We take thisopportunity to share how bringing in detailed skill view in talent forecasting led to better clarity and purpose inworkforce planning leading to higher efficiencies in talent development and deployment. 5. Each organization has their own method/approach to talent forecasting and it is dependent on the context surroundingtheir business. Our attempt here is not to dictate a particular model or methodology. The purpose of this paper is solelyto bring the focus on why skill view is important in talent requi rement forecasting and how by doing that y ou canachieve more desirable results both in sourcing and in utilization.pg. 5Typical Talent Forecasting ModelAt a broad level traditional forecasting model for talent requi rements focuses on future demands and current attri tionlevels to determine the shortfall in talent needs. The demands do encapsulate the skill requirements under them, butthe focus is more on the overall number of talents requi red to bridge the attrition short fall and also address the growthneeds projected as demands.The table below provides a view of one such typical model.Legend Parameter FormulaCurrentQA Current Total Talent Strength 10000B Current Utilization (%)** 79B1 Implies no. of people on production work B1 = A*B/100 7900C QoQ expected growth (%)*** 2C1Implies expected people in production in nextquarter C1=B1 + (B1*C/100) 8058D Target utilization % for next quarter 80E Projected Total Talent Strength by next quarter E=C1/D * 100 10073F Current Attrition % 3.5F1 Implies talent shortfall due to attrition F1=A*F/100 350G Gross Talent Shortfall for the quarter G=F1+(E-A) 423H Projected Trainees to join in the quarter 125INet Talent Shortfall for the quarter that needs to besourced I=G-H 298Green Cells indicate input parameters to the model. Amber Cells indicate derived values based on input parameters** Utilization is def ined as people w ho are on production projects being billed for their services.*** grow th is assumed to be linear in terms of number of people billed in productionData shown in above model is simulatedTable 1 Traditional Talent Forecasting ModelThe said model relies on inputs like current and expected utilization level, current attrition level and projected l inergrowth in terms of manpower growth to arrive at the overall talent requirementsShortcomings of the Typical Talent Forecasting ModelThe typical model for forecasting as shown above is good for overall projections. It relies on the macro level inputsaround utilization, attrition and growth projections to forecast the net talent requirements. However, it is laced withshortcomings that can lead to sub-optimal results in getting the right talent.The foremost shortcoming of the typical model is that it subsumes the skill view under the macro level growthprojections. This skill view is mostly based on skill requirements captured in the form of talent demands. Demands can 6. be for incremental growth in existing programs, attrition replacement or for completely new pro grams. However, it goeswithout saying that talent demands tend to be rather liberal in terms of requirements. What is not explicitly capturedand known in this model is the current utilization of these skills, the impact of ramp downs if any on the utilization andhow that impacts the availability of the skill pool to meet the projected demands . Going only by the demand view andignoring the utilization view can lead to a skewed view of skill requirements, which can lead to mismatch between whatwas required and what got sourced and thus affecting the effectiveness of the overall talent utilization.Hence, while we totally agre