Avoiding Nonprofit Disasters Through Decision-Making Science

Dr. Gleb TsipurskyCo-Founder and President, Intentional Insights

Professor, The Ohio State University

The Columbus FoundationMarch 21, 2017

What Do You See?

Pessimism and Optimism Bias

Presentation Overview

• Upcoming major decisions for your organizations• Avoiding disastrous decisions

– Presentation– Q&A - your organization’s upcoming decisions

• Avoiding disasters after a decision has been made– Presentation – Group discussion– Q&A - decisions already made by your organizations

• Final Q&A• Tip sheets – free for participants

Choose An Upcoming Major Decision

Decisions Under Consideration

•

Elephant and Rider

How Does Our Mind Work?System 1Elephant - Autopilot

• Subconscious• Automatic• Habits

• Fast• Intuitive• Emotional

System 2Rider - Intentional

• Conscious• Mindful• Attention

• Slow• Reasoning • Logical

Retrain the Mind

Knowledge is Power:Beware Cognitive Biases

Overconfidence Effect

Status Quo Bias

Halo and Horns Effects

Dealing With Cognitive Biases

Put a

NUMBER

on it!

Web App: Making the Right Call on Significant Decisions

• Free online tool to “put numbers on it” http://bit.ly/2mrMZi6

• Example: Hiring decision

Q&A on Decision-Making Science

Preventing Disasters Once Decision Made

Premortem vs. Postmortem

Premortem: Steps 1 and 2Step 1Gather stakeholders in meeting• Ensure a mix of people:

– expertise on topic – authority to make decisions

Step 2Explain the exercise• Describe all steps

Premortem: Step 3Ask all to imagine a future where the project definitely failed.• Ask each participant to

write possible reasons for failure ANONYMOUSLY– Encourage reasons that

might be seen as rude or unpopular

• Facilitator gathers written comments and reads them aloud

Premortem: Step 4

Discuss all reasons that were brought up• Pay particular attention to those that seem

rude, unpopular, and/or dangerous to careers• Estimate the probability of each reason for

failure ANONYMOUSLY– Option 1: percentage probabilities

• Ex: 80% likely– Option 2: use categories

• highly likely• somewhat likely• unlikely• very unlikely

Premortem: Step 5 and 6Step 5Decide on several failures that are most relevant• Brainstorm ways of preventing these failures from occurring. Step 6Project leader revises project plan based on the feedback, and, if needed, repeats the exercise.

Premortem Q&A

Premortem: Group ActivityStep 1: Gather stakeholders in meeting• Ensure a mix of people with expertise on topic and with authority to make decisionsStep 2: Explain the exercise to everyone - describe all steps.Step 3: Ask all to imagine that they are in a future where the project definitely failed• Ask each participant to write possible reasons for failure ANONYMOUSLY

– Encourage reasons that might be seen as rude or unpopular• Facilitator gathers written comments and reads aloud.Step 4: Discuss all reasons that were brought up• Pay particular attention to those that seem rude, unpopular, and/or dangerous to

careers• Estimate the probability of each reason for failure ANONYMOUSLY

– Option 1: percentage probabilities (Ex: 80% likely)– Option 2: use categories (highly likely, somewhat likely, unlikely, very unlikely)

Step 5: Decide on several failures that are most relevant• Brainstorm ways of preventing these failures from occurring.Step 6: Project leader revises project plan based on the feedback, and, if needed, repeats the exercise.

Invest in Avoiding Disasters

Thank You!Dr. Gleb Tsipurskygleb@intentionalinsights.org

Website glebtsipursky.comTwitter twitter.com/Gleb_Tsipursky LinkedIn linkedin.com/in/dr-gleb-tsipursky-89ab4b23/

Email to get two free tip sheets:• Avoiding Disastrous Decisions• Avoiding Disaster Once You Make a Decision

PowerPoint of this presentation slideshare.net/intentionalinsights