present value yield to maturity total returnecon.ucsb.edu/~bohn/135/slides04.pdf · [notes on...

14
[Mishkin ch.5 - P.1] Demand and Supply for Financial Assets Mishkin ch.5: The Bond Market P )CH>J6H>CB - &BH:F:GH F6H:G 6F: 9:H:FA>B:9 7M H=: 9:A6B9 6B9 GIDD@M ;CF 7CB9G - )CB:H6FM DC@>8M KCF?G >B D6FH 7M A6B>DI@6H>B< >BH:F:GH F6H:G - !:A6B9 6B9 GIDD@M ;CF CH=:F ;>B6B8>6@ 6GG:HG 6F: 9:H:FA>B:9 G>A>@6F@M P ,:FGD:8H>J:G CB H=: 7CB9 A6F?:H 1. CB9G 6G ;>B6B8>6@ 6GG:HG #>B6B8>6@ #68HCFG J:FM G=CFH FIB P CB9 9:A6B9 6;;:8H:9 7M F:@6H>J: F>G? F:@6H>J: @>EI>9>HM 6B9 K:6@H= P ':M >GGI: GG:H DF>8>B< #>B6B8: &BGH6BH6B:CIG F:GDCBG:G HC B:KG 2. /6J>B< 6B9 CFFCK>B< .:6@ #68HCFG @CB< FIB P CB9 A6F?:H A6H8=:G G6J:FG 6B9 7CFFCK:FG 6;;:8H:9 7M H=:>F 7:=6J>CF P )68FC >GGI: .:6@ G6J>B<G>BJ:GHA:BH 06?:G H>A: ACGH DCK:F;I@ >B H=: @CB< FIB 3. (>EI>9>HM ,F:;:F:B8: )CB:H6FM #68HCFG >B 6 ':MB:G>6B G:HH>B< G=CFH FIB P .:@>:G CB ':MB:G>6B A68FC:8CBCA>8 6GGIADH>CBG SGH>8?MT DF>8:G => DEFER .:HIFB HC (>EI>9>HM :;;:8H 6B9 S)CB:M &BH:F:GH .6H:GT @6H:F

Upload: trinhthuy

Post on 03-Jul-2018

222 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Returnecon.ucsb.edu/~bohn/135/slides04.pdf · [Notes on Mishkin Ch.4 ... Three key concepts: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Return 2

[Mishkin ch.5 - P.1]

Demand and Supply for Financial Assets Mishkin ch.5: The Bond Market

- - -

1.

2. –

3. => DEFER

Page 2: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Returnecon.ucsb.edu/~bohn/135/slides04.pdf · [Notes on Mishkin Ch.4 ... Three key concepts: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Return 2

[Mishkin ch.5 - P.2]

Perspective #1: Bonds as Financial Assets

- 1. Expected return (+) 2. Risk (-) 3. Liquidity (+) -

Page 3: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Returnecon.ucsb.edu/~bohn/135/slides04.pdf · [Notes on Mishkin Ch.4 ... Three key concepts: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Return 2

[Mishkin ch.5 - P.3]

all

relative - negatively related relative

relative relative - positive related

- - Re-valuation new

- New savings - . - => Real

- -

Page 4: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Returnecon.ucsb.edu/~bohn/135/slides04.pdf · [Notes on Mishkin Ch.4 ... Three key concepts: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Return 2

[Mishkin ch.5 - P.4]

The Supply of Bonds

defines - -

- - - - - => Real

. =>

Page 5: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Returnecon.ucsb.edu/~bohn/135/slides04.pdf · [Notes on Mishkin Ch.4 ... Three key concepts: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Return 2

[Mishkin ch.5 - P.5]

Demand & Supply => Equilibrium Price and Volume - h

Page 6: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Returnecon.ucsb.edu/~bohn/135/slides04.pdf · [Notes on Mishkin Ch.4 ... Three key concepts: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Return 2

[Mishkin ch.5 - P.6]

Application: Demand for other financial assets

Same basic argument as for bonds: -

provided

-

Additional issue for equity-type assets: future payments are uncertain

- -

Page 7: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Returnecon.ucsb.edu/~bohn/135/slides04.pdf · [Notes on Mishkin Ch.4 ... Three key concepts: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Return 2

[Mishkin ch.5 - P.7]

Application: The “Flight to Quality”

relative

- – -

Demand

Stocks

PriceSupply

Stock Market

Demand

Bonds

PriceSupply

Bond Market

Page 8: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Returnecon.ucsb.edu/~bohn/135/slides04.pdf · [Notes on Mishkin Ch.4 ... Three key concepts: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Return 2

[Mishkin ch.5 - P.8]

Related Perspectives

- - - - - -

Asset Pricing – - -

Page 9: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Returnecon.ucsb.edu/~bohn/135/slides04.pdf · [Notes on Mishkin Ch.4 ... Three key concepts: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Return 2

[Mishkin ch.5 - P.9]

Systematic Analysis: Predict the Effect of hanges

-

-

- -

Page 10: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Returnecon.ucsb.edu/~bohn/135/slides04.pdf · [Notes on Mishkin Ch.4 ... Three key concepts: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Return 2

[Mishkin ch.5 - P. ]

Overview #1:

Demand

Page 11: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Returnecon.ucsb.edu/~bohn/135/slides04.pdf · [Notes on Mishkin Ch.4 ... Three key concepts: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Return 2

[Mishkin ch.5 - P.11]

Overview #2:

Supply

Page 12: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Returnecon.ucsb.edu/~bohn/135/slides04.pdf · [Notes on Mishkin Ch.4 ... Three key concepts: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Return 2

[Mishkin ch.5 - P.12]

[Caution: Distinguish real and financial investments!]

Page 13: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Returnecon.ucsb.edu/~bohn/135/slides04.pdf · [Notes on Mishkin Ch.4 ... Three key concepts: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Return 2

[Mishkin ch.5 - P.13]

Scenario: Increase in Expected Inflation

s

Fisher effect)

Δi = Δπ e

π e

Δi ≠ Δπ e]

Page 14: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Returnecon.ucsb.edu/~bohn/135/slides04.pdf · [Notes on Mishkin Ch.4 ... Three key concepts: Present Value Yield to Maturity Total Return 2

[Mishkin ch.5 - P.14]

Preview: More Applications of Financial Markets Analysis

1. The Risk-structure of interest rates - - Y

2. The Term Structure of interest rates - – DEFER.

3. Demand & Supply in the stock market – DEFER.

4. The Market for Foreign Exchange - - - .S

D