Predicting the future…harder than one might think and a more severe impact on your business than you

thought!

Jonas Bränning

The future is best understood from its

history

"The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty – a fad."

- - president of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Company, 1903.

"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value." -- Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre.

”A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth's atmosphere.” - - The New York Times, January 13, 1920.

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" -- H. M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927

"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” -- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929.

"There will never be a bigger plane built." -- A Boeing engineer 1933, regarding a twin engine plane that holds ten people.

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

"Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons." -- Popular Mechanics, 1949

"While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility." -- Lee DeForest, inventor, 1957

”To place a man in a multi-stage rocket and project him into the controlling gravitational field of the moon where the passengers can make scientific observations, perhaps land alive, and then return to earth—all that constitutes a wild dream worthy of Jules Verne. I am bold enough to say that such a man-made voyage will never occur regardless of all future advances”.- - Lee De Forest, Inventor, February 25, 1957

"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." -- Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962

"With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn't likely to carve out a big slice of the U.S. market." -- Business Week, August 2, 1968

53%40%

7%

Origin* of the Top-20 best selling carsin the US 2013

*HQ

”…And they [Atari] said, 'No.' So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, 'Hey, we don't need you. You haven't got through college yet.'" -- Apple Computer Inc. founder Steve Jobs on attempts to get Atari and HP interested in his and Steve Wozniak's personal computer.

”There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home”. - - Ken Olsen, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), in a talk given to a 1977 World Future Society meeting in Boston.

”Nicholas Negroponte predicts that we´ll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the internet. Uh, sure! So how come my local mall does more business in an afternoon than the entire internet handles in a month?” - - Clifford Stoll, 1995 Newsweek

"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance."

- - MS former CEO Steve Ballmer in an interview in 2007.

Times are a-changing…and much faster than

ever

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Zalando Revenue (Billions)

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H&M Revenue growth

$B

Predicting future is a

tough work……especially since start to success is about 5 years,

failure will be even quicker…

The new brave world• Jobless growth

• New payment possibilities

• Remote Therapy - No more couch

• Health Care - Do take care of yourself and at home

• University - Still there as we know them today? (MOCS)

• Prediction for 2045 ”The top species will no longer be humans”

Future - it ain´t what it used to be…..

• Stores - Internet trade, 3D printing

• Field service - 3D printing

• Manufacturing - 3D printing

• Logistics - Drones

• Health care - robotics and telemedicine, 3D print

• Car manufacturer - Tesla, Google

• Tele Operators - Skype, Rebtel, WhatsApp

• Banking ”The new Bank of Italy*” - Facebook, Apple, Amazon

• Travel agencies - Hotels.com, Kayak

• Automated agencies for banks, instant and constant negotiations

* Bank of Italy succeeded with close connection to society and people, later changed name to Bank of America

So.. what will impact your

business and where will you be in the future?

WinnerLooserLagger

You decide!