predictions 2010
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Summary presentation of book industry predictions for 2010 first presented on my blog: Personanondata.blogspot.comTRANSCRIPT
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Predictions2010
Cloudy with A Chance of Alarm
Michael CairnsInformation Media PartnersJanuary 2010
© Michael Cairns: Use with Attribution only
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Better or Worse?
During 2009 Book Publishing a winner– Contrast: Magazines, newspapers, some television
No ‘resurrection’ during 2009
Executives guarded about immediate future
Anticipated short to medium term problems with education and library funding
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Maturing Macro Trends
Educational segment development– Electronic content and applications– Testing, assessment– Increasing not slowing– “New” not migrated products– Speak about “databases” and “subscriptions”
Paid subscription models– Experimentation: Disney– Bullying: NewsCorp– Attempts to separate advertising and subscriber web models
Experimentation with “communities”– BusinessWeek exchange– Nature.com– Tor.com– Harlequin
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What hasn’t happened
No trade consolidation– Anticipated for several years
Far less Merger/Acquisition activity– Mismatch: Valuations and expectations– Big names on market for extended period
Collaboration across the supply chain– Friction with Amazon & pricing– Physical book retailing heightens problems
Institutional knowledge leveraged
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Macro Predictions 2010
E-Books– 2009 ‘Year of the E-Book’– End of 2010: The Cloud– Google Editions– Apple’s (Hardware) role in book/media content
will be defining– Content ‘rights’ challenged: Concept of
ownership– E-Content rather than E-Books– E-Content another format option
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Macro Predictions 2010
Are the Libraries my Friend?– Mobile and remote access awakening threat to
trade publishers– Content aggregators build relations with
Publishers– Requirement for more research on patron use
of content– Implies an industry wide ‘re-think’ of library
sales model– Challenges definition of ‘purchase’ and ‘loan’
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Macro Predictions 2010
Content silos: How trade build community– Subject specific content silos– Publishers license ancillary and related content: Drive
repeat traffic• Encyclopedia• Reference• News content• Seminars/How to’s/ interactive modules, etc.
– Become sites within sites: Build community with consumers
– Build other services– Over time create broader types of content to support silos– Trade titles/imprints with other publishers
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Micro Predictions 2010
Library market challenged through mid 2011– Retention, renewal, pricing difficult– Perhaps some vendor consolidation as a result
Return of collaboration between magazines and traditional publishers– Return of serial and short story: Magazines need ready-made
content– Trade-off for publishers: Magazines offer targeted marketing
Year of warfare– Publishers vs. retailers, wholesalers vs. retailers, retailers vs.
retailers, publishers vs. consumers Consolidation of trade houses As magazines migrate on-line they will need more content
and journalists will be there: Magazines outsource editorial
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