predicting our climate future
DESCRIPTION
Predicting our Climate Future. Human Activities and Lifestyles. Climate Change Model. Predicted climate changes (Precipitation, Temp. etc.). GHG Emissions. Social Science Oriented Social influences H uman behavior Affluence Diet/food, geography influences Political aspects - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Human Activities and
Lifestyles
Climate Change Model
Predicted climate changes (Precipitation, Temp.
etc.)
GHG Emissions
Earth Science Oriented• Physics• Chemistry• Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric processes
Social Science Oriented• Social influences
• Human behavior• Affluence• Diet/food, • geography influences
• Political aspects• Isolation/globalization• Economic drivers• Environmental regulations
• Technology and its implementation• Energy efficiency• Alternative energy sources
Predicting our Climate Future
Emission scenarios
• Need to define GHG emission “scenarios” to project what our lives and activities will be for the next century.– What are the possible economic scenarios?– What changes will we have in our society?
• How do these changes influence emissions?
IPCC SRES
• Special Report on Emissions Scenarios • Developed “stories” that would define the
range of possible social systems that we may develop through the 21st century– Economic growth– Population growth– Technology development and adoption– Commitment to the environment– Globalization
A1: Global, Economically Oriented
Population growth and decline Technological advances applied
globally Equity in economic development
among regions Extensive fossil fuel use in A1FI
scenario Rapid technology development to
reduce fossil fuels (A1T)
by 2100:o 7 billion populationo $550 trillion GDPo ~970 ppm CO2 (A1FI),
(720 ppm for A1B)
A2: Regional, Economically oriented
Population growth Technological advances,
resource consumption and cultural differences among regions
by 2100:o 15 billion populationo $250 trillion GDPo ~850 ppm CO2
A: Economic Focus
B: Environmental FocusB1: Global, Environmentally
oriented global solutions to economic,
social, and environmental sustainability
no additional climate initiatives service and information oriented
economy reductions in material intensity clean and resource-efficient
technologies
by 2100:o 7 billion populationo $350 trillion GDPo estimated 550 ppm CO2
B2: Regional, Environmentally oriented
local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability
economic equity within regions, but not between regions
less rapid and more diverse technological changes
global policies for climate change mitigation
by 2100: o 10 billion population, o $250 trillion GDPo ~600 PPM CO2
Emissions profiles for IPCC scenarios
Climate Modeling Results for IPCC Scenarios
A1B A1FI A1T A2 B1 B2
Climate Modeling Results for IPCC Scenarios
A1B A1FI A1T A2 B1 B2
Model predictions
IPCC scenarios
350.org
IPCC scenarios
IPCC Data
• Visualization of IPCC climate model results– http://www.ipcc-data.org/maps/