power sector - monthly update 28nov11
TRANSCRIPT
Please refer to our disclaimer given at the last page.
Analyst: Rabindra Nath Nayak Tel: 42273410 E-mail: [email protected] Alok Ramachandran 42273478 [email protected]
November 28, 2011
Fuel shortage and lower schedules hamper coal and gas-based generation Continued fuel shortage at coal-based plants (resulting into a cumulative lower generation of 5.3bn units) and lower schedules (resulting into a cumulative lower generation of 5.6bn units) from discoms has led to decline in growth of power generation in the country. In October 2011, all India power generation growth slowed down to 4.99% against 8.47% in October 2010. In our opinion, the situation is unlikely to reverse in November as well.
Power deficit expands to 9.64% in October, but merchant rates remain subdued due to dismal participation by SEBs The power deficit witnessed expansion (YoY) for the first time in the last 16 months. Participation in the merchant market remained good with the improvement of buy/sell bid ratio. But rates have remained subdued due to poor participation by discoms. We expect the deficit to remain stable, due to slow industrial demand and poor residential consumption in the winter season. Similarly, merchant and bilateral rates may not witness spikes in the near-term. Continuous deterioration of fuel supply position, imported coal-based plants import less coal than targeted As of 30 September 2011, coal availability at the coal-based station declined by ~8%, due to poor logistics and Telangana agitation in Andhra Pradesh, resulting in critical and super-critical shortages at 31 and 21 power stations, respectively. With an anticipated coal availability of 54mn tonnes during F12e, the plants designed to run on domestic coal have imported 90% of their targeted (pro-rated target) amount. However, the plant that were designed to run on imported coal, have just imported 69% of their targeted capacity. We understand the rise in international coal prices was the key deterrent for the imported coal-based plants to import coal up to the target. This is because the majority of imported coal-based projects are competitively bid projects and rise in fuel prices negatively impact them, as there would be under-recovery at the variable cost level. International coal prices remained firm YoY, but declined MoM, Indonesian government reduced coal reference price by 2.17% in November Internationally coal prices decline due to poor off-take by India and China. Following this, the Indonesian government has set a coal reference price of $116.65 (2.17% lower than the October reference price) for November 2011. Depreciation of domestic currency, base coal price/tonne at above $100 and dismal policy action for raising tariff are the key deterrents for the poor off-take in India, resulting in the pile up of coal stocks to 11mn tonnes mark in the Indian ports. We expect coal traders to reduce prices (to trim rising inventory cost), but the off-take will be slower due to 18% rupee depreciation. 2QF12 performance: Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on sector The 2QF12 performance of our covered companies remains almost in line with our expectation. A significant pick up in capitalisation by Power Grid and the pass through (by CERC) of J&K water charges remains the key positives in 2QF12. We maintain our UNDERWEIGHT view on the sector and prefer regulated utilities. Power Grid, Neyveli Lignite, CESC and NTPC are our preferred picks. Valuation
F 12e F 13e F 12e F 13e F 12e F 13e F 12e F 13e F 12e F 13e F 12e F 13e
Net Sales 6,72,375 7,74,796 98,799 1,20,306 53,344 63,112 46,918 57,031 72,578 74,433 46,770 50,388
% growth 22.4 15.2 17.8 21.8 26.3 18.3 18.8 21.6 11.1 2.6 18.7 7.7
EBITDA 1,53,027 1,65,434 83,443 1,02,699 33,745 39,223 17,173 21,521 17,443 18,828 11,040.9 12,213.4
% growth 21.7 8.1 18.3 23.1 18.6 16.2 33.16 25.32 (2.6) 7.9 10.27 10.62
PAT 1,03,252 1,05,129 28,338 34,970 21,821 23,519 13,190 14,014 11,155 8,413 5,315 6,449
EPS (Rs / share) 12.5 12.7 6.1 7.6 1.8 1.9 7.9 8.4 23.6 17.8 42.3 51.3
EPS Growth (%) 13.4 1.8 5.2 23.4 0.7 7.8 1.3 6.3 4.7 (24.6) 8.8 21.3
P/E (x) 12.2 12.0 13.8 11.7 12.8 11.9 9.0 8.5 8.3 11.1 5.8 4.8
P/BV (x) 1.7 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.2 8.3 10.9 9.9 4.7 4.9 6.6 5.4 6.8 6.9 4.3 3.9
EV/Sales 2.3 2.2 9.2 8.4 2.9 3.0 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.9
RoNW (%) 13.7 12.8 12.2 13.6 8.6 9.0 11.0 10.8 19.7 13.5 8.8 9.8
RoCE (%) 20.0 17.5 15.5 12.6 5.1 4.7 8.1 8.1 11.5 7.3 4.9 5.7
RatingTarget 211 129 27 120 244 386
BUY BUY REDUCE BUY REDUCE BUY
NHPCKey Indicators
CESCNeyveli Lignite Torrent PowerPGCILNTPC
Source: SSL
Monthly Update - November 2011
Power Sector Monthly Update – November 2011 SBICAP Securities Ltd
November 28, 2011 | 2
Fuel shortage and lower schedules hamper coal and gas-based generation
All India generation was up 4.99% YoY in October 2011 to 74.14bn units, led by increased capacity addition. However, growth in generation slowed down from 8.47% (October 2010) recorded last year. However, the cumulative generation in the country during April-October 2011 improved by 8.64% from 4.76% (Apr-Oct 2010) at 509.14bn units. Dismal generation is largely due to: a) continued fuel shortage and b) lower schedule led by the availability of cheaper nuclear and hydro power (up 23% YoY). As per the CEA data, the coal-based plants have witnessed a cumulative generation (April-October 2011) loss of 5.32bn units due to fuel shortage and 5.59bn units due to lower schedules from discoms.
During the month, nuclear generation continued its robust growth (monthly up by18% YoY and cumulatively up by 42% YoY) performance, led by better fuel availability and improved schedules from discoms. Similarly, with better monsoons, the generation from hydro power plants has achieved a growth rate of 14.41% compared to 9.50% achieved in October 2010. For April-October 2011, the generation from hydro power plants has also achieved a growth rate of 21.48% compared to 8.03% in April-October 2010.
Hydel and nuclear perform, thermal disappoints
0
25
50
75
100
0
7,500
15,000
22,500
30,000
Sep-
10O
ct-1
0N
ov-1
0D
ec-1
0Ja
n-11
Feb-
11M
ar-1
1Ap
r-11
May
-11
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Aug-
11Se
p-11
(%)
(MW
)
Central Hydel Capacity State Hydel CapacityCentral Hydel PLF State Hydel PLF
0
20
40
60
80
100
4,4504,5004,5504,6004,6504,7004,7504,800
Sep-
10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar
-11
Apr-
11
May
-11
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug-
11
Sep-
11
(%)
(MW
)
Nuclear Capacity Nuclear PLF
0
25
50
75
100
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
Sep-
10O
ct-1
0N
ov-1
0D
ec-1
0Ja
n-11
Feb-
11M
ar-1
1Ap
r-11
May
-11
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Aug-
11Se
p-11
(%)
(MW
)
Central Thermal capacity State Thermal capacityCentral Thermal PLF State Thermal PLF
0
25
50
75
100
0
4,500
9,000
13,500
18,000
22,500
Sep-
10O
ct-1
0N
ov-1
0D
ec-1
0Ja
n-11
Feb-
11M
ar-1
1Ap
r-11
May
-11
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Aug-
11Se
p-11
(%)
(MW
)
IPP Thermal capacity Pvt. Utl. Thermal capacityIPP TH PLF Pvt. Utl. TH PLF
50
55
60
65
70
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Sep-
10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar
-11
Apr-
11
May
-11
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug-
11
Sep-
11
(%)
(MU
's)
All India units gen. All India PLF
Source: CEA, SSL
Coal-based plants have witnessed a cumulative generation (April-October 2011) loss of 5.32bn units due to fuel shortage and 5.59bn units due to lower schedules from discoms
Power Sector Monthly Update – November 2011 SBICAP Securities Ltd
November 28, 2011 | 3
Power deficit expands to 9.6% in October, but merchant rates remain subdued due to dismal participation by SEBs In September 2011, power deficit in India rose to 9.6% from 6.8% YoY. The power deficit witnessed expansion (YoY) for the second time in the last 17 months. During the month, power generation reported a meagre 5% YoY rise and power availability by 2.4%. However, power requirement grew 5.6% in October 2011. A faster rise in power requirement against availability led to expansion in power deficit. We expect the deficit to remain stable, due to slow industrial demand and poor residential consumption in the winter season.
Poor off-take by SEBs has led to poor realisation in the merchant market. The spike in prices seen during the festive season was tapered off and as per the recent CERC report (Analysis of Weekly Reporting by Licensed Traders for October 2011), the realisation is likely to go further southwards in the coming months.
All India PLF and average deficit
50
55
60
65
70
136,000
141,000
146,000
151,000
156,000
161,000
166,000
Sep-
10O
ct-1
0N
ov-1
0D
ec-1
0Ja
n-11
Feb-
11M
ar-1
1Ap
r-11
May
-11
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Aug-
11Se
p-11
(%)
(MW
)
All India Capacity - (MW) All India PLF - (%)
(18.0)
(15.0)
(12.0)
(9.0)
(6.0)
(3.0)
0.0
Jan
Feb
Mar Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
(%)
Average Deficit
2009 2010 2011
Source: IEX, SSLe
Merchant tariffs – peaked out again
0
5
9
14
18
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar
-11
Apr-
11
May
-11
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug-
11
Sep-
11
Oct
-11
Nov
-11
Average Daily max Daily min Source: IEX, SSLe
Merchant prices trend up sharply in October 2011, primarily due to Diwali-demand and coal supply disruption in Telangana affecting production at SECL.
A faster rise in power requirement against availability led to expansion in power deficit.
Power Sector Monthly Update – November 2011 SBICAP Securities Ltd
November 28, 2011 | 4
Sept’11 saw increase in buyers, led by festive demand and the shortage of coal producton from SECL; average bilateral tariffs remained at ~Rs4/unit
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000 Se
p-10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11Fe
b-11
Mar
-11
Apr-
11M
ay-1
1Ju
n-11
Jul-1
1Au
g-11
Sep-
11
(x)
(MU
's)
No Buy bids No of Sell offers Buyers/Salers
0
3
5
8
10
Sep-
10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar
-11
Apr-
11
May
-11
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug-
11
Sep-
11
Oct
-11
IEX Bi-Lat Wt AvgNEW Grid Bi-Lat MaxBi-Lat Min
Source: CERC
Continuous deterioration of fuel supply position, imported coal-based plants import less coal than targeted
Coal supply position deteriorated with 31 of 86 plants facing critical inventory levels against 25 plants YoY. In September 2011, coal requirement of 31.5mn tonnes was estimated, however, only 24.9mn tonnes of coal was available to the thermal power stations. As of 30 September 2011, 31 thermal power stations had critical stock including 21 stations with super-critical stock, i.e. stock for less than 4 days. Inadequate receipt of coal and transportation problems is the main reasons for coal shortages.
During the current financial year 2011-12, the anticipated gap between the requirement and the availability of domestic coal was estimated ~54mn tonnes. Out of 54mn tonnes, 34mn tonnes of coal will support plants designed for domestic coal, for which all the utilities have been advised by the ministry to take necessary action and rest 20mn tonnes of coal was the requirements of power plants designed on imported coal. So far, the plants designed through domestic coal have imported 90% of their targeted (pro-rated target) amount, however, the plant that were dedicated to run on imported coal, have just importing 69% of their targeted capacity. We understand the rise in international coal prices has been the key deterrent for the imported coal-based plants to import coal up to the target. This is because the majority of the imported coal-based projects are competitively bid projects and rise in fuel prices negatively impact them, as there would be under-recovery at the variable cost level.
International coal prices remained firm YoY, but declined MoM, Indonesian government reduced coal reference price by 2.17% in November
In October 2011, international coal price indexes, Newcastle and Richards Bay index fell by 3.5% and 4.7% MoM, respectively. However, prices remain firm on YoY basis, as both the indices are up 17.5% and 13.5% YoY, respectively. This is primarily driven by global demand for thermal coal by China and India.
Prices of major coal grades from Indonesia declined by ~2% from their October level, due to slower off-take by India. China bought ~12.58mn tonnes of coal from Indonesia last month and India has imported only 3.96mn tonnes, which is only ~30% of Chinese imports. Around 40% of total Indonesian coal exports in October were shipped to China. Indian imports dropped drastically since the last two months. Despite an acute fuel shortage, Indian power producers are refusing to buy expensive coal, leaving coal importers to face big losses as stocks mount up. Coal stocks have piled up at various ports, reaching record levels, and are estimated to surpass the 11mn tonnes mark (according to media reports). The Indonesian government has set a coal reference price of $116.65 (2.17% lower than October reference price) for November. We expect coal imports to improve in November.
Plants that were dedicated to run on imported coal, have just imported 69% of their targeted capacity.
Despite an acute fuel shortage, Indian power producers are refusing to buy expensive coal, leaving coal importers to face big losses as stocks mount up.
Power Sector Monthly Update – November 2011 SBICAP Securities Ltd
November 28, 2011 | 5
International coal prices remain firm
0
50
100
150
200Ja
n-06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
(US$
/met
ric to
nne)
Newcastle Coal Index
`
In this range for past ten months
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
Jan-
06M
ay-0
6Se
p-06
Jan-
07M
a y-0
7Se
p-07
Jan-
08M
ay-0
8Se
p-08
Jan-
09M
a y-0
9Se
p-09
Jan-
10M
ay-1
0Se
p-10
Jan-
11M
a y-1
1Se
p-11
(USD
$/m
etric
tonn
e)
Richards Bay Coal Index
In thisrange for past four months
Source: Bloomberg, SSL
Gas prices also remain firm
-
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0 Ap
r-08
Jul-0
8
Oct
-08
Jan-
09
Apr-
09
Jul-0
9
Oct
-09
Jan-
10
Apr-
10
Jul-1
0
Oct
-10
Jan-
11
Apr-
11
Jul-1
1
Oct
-11
USD
Monthly FOB Gas prices
Source: Bloomberg, SSL
Policy updates CERC came out with new regulation for the renewable power CERC has come out with ‘Terms and Conditions for Tariff determination from Renewable Energy Sources’ Regulations, 2012. These regulations will come into force on 1.4.2012 and unless reviewed earlier or extended by the Commission, will remain in force for five years from the date of commencement. Capex - New announcements slows and shelving increases
According to the CMIE’s Capex database, fresh project announcements in the electricity sector fell by 44% YoY to Rs747.33bn in September 2011. This fall is also visible in the entire economy where new project announcement s fell by 44% YoY. Also, in 2QF12, the country witnessed the highest amount of projects being shelved at Rs747.4bn in the past 64 quarters. Of this, the electricity sector accounted for 63.6% at Rs475bn. Despite, the shelving of power plants, the projects under implementation in the sector remained buoyant at Rs25,000bn.
Despite, the shelving of power plants, the projects under implementation in the sector remained buoyant at Rs25 trillion
Power Sector Monthly Update – November 2011 SBICAP Securities Ltd
November 28, 2011 | 6
Projects commissioned in F12 till date
6361.5
1139
Capacity addition this year Apr-Oct'11
Thermal (MW) Hydro (MW) Renewable Energy (MW)
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
0
18,000
36,000
54,000
72,000
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th11th
(%)
(MW
)
Plan-wise Achievement
Target Achievement % of Achievement
Source: CEA, SSL New project announcement slows down and shelving also increases; projects under implementation robust
0
750
1,500
2,250
3,000
Jun-
06
Dec
-06
Jun-
07
Dec
-07
Jun-
08
Dec
-08
Jun-
09
Dec
-09
Jun-
10
Dec
-10
Jun-
11
(Rs
Bn)
Projects Announcements
New Investments
010203040506070
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
Mar
-09
Jun-
09
Sep-
09
Dec
-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10
Sep-
10
Dec
-10
Mar
-11
Jun-
11
Sep-
11
(%)
(Rs
Bn)
Project Shelved
All India Abandoned % of Electricity projects shelved
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Mar
-09
Jun-
09
Sep-
09
Dec
-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10
Sep-
10
Dec
-10
Mar
-11
Jun-
11
Sep-
11
(x)
(Rs
Mn)
Announced & Under Implementation
Announced Under implementation Under Implementation/Announced
Source: CMIE, SSL
Project completed during F12 (Apr–Oct’11) Following are among the major projects that are completed till date: KSK Energy’s 540MW coal-based power project at Warora, Maharashtra worth Rs24,160mn North Delhi Power’s 108MW combined cycle power project at Rithala, Delhi worth Rs2,564.8mn. Lanco Infratech’s 1,200MW coal-based power project at Anpara, Uttar Pradesh worth Rs44,500mn APGENCO’s 234MW Priyadarshini Jurala Hydro-electric plant at Mehboobnagar, Andhra Pradesh worth Rs5,470mn. Jaiprakash Power Ventures’ 1,000MW Karcham Wangtoo Hydro-electric plant at Kinnaur, Himachal Pradesh worth
Rs69,033mn JSW Energy’s 1,200MW coal-based power plant in Ratnagiri, Maharashtra worth Rs45,000mn.
Power Sector Monthly Update – November 2011 SBICAP Securities Ltd
November 28, 2011 | 7
2QF12 results snapshot
NTPC - Dismal operating performance, hopes afloat for 2HF12 NTPC posted net sales of Rs153,775mn and PAT of Rs24,241mn in 2QF12. Operating performance was affected due to planned outages and consistent backing down by SEBs. The management has guided for a better 2HF12, despite fuel shortage. With the completion of its major planned maintenance in 1HF12, it is prepared for a better show during 2HF12. We also have revised estimates for F12e, by assuming a 40% increase in coal costs, increase in debtor days due to slower payment by SEB’s and revision of the tax rate to 28%. Reiterate a BUY rating.
NHPC - No positive surprises, adjusted PAT below estimates Sales grew 54.1% YoY to Rs19.81bn led by reimbursement allowance of water charges, as per the CERC order dated 21/10/2011. Adjusting to the water cess, sales was Rs15.17bn. Reported PAT was higher by 40% YoY at Rs9,664.7mn, We have revised our capacity addition target for F12e from 1,080MW to 560MW, by removing Parbati-III from our estimates, reduced provision as a percentage of core income from 3% to 1%, incorporated water cess charges, since it is now a pass-through. Maintain REDUCE.
PGCIL - 3QF12 to watch out for Power Grid Corporation posted net sales of Rs22,644mn and PAT of Rs7,087mn. The management has maintained guidance to meet its capex and capitalisation targets for F12 and the 12th Plan. The company has invested Rs46,110mn in 1HF12. We have revised our capex estimates down from Rs160bn to Rs140bn, but have increased the capitalisation from Rs72bn to Rs94.58bn in F12e and reduced the debtor days from 146 to120 days on the back clearances of the tariff petitions and the management’s guidance to improve its debtor days. Maintain BUY.
Torrent Power - Result marginally above estimates; maintain REDUCE Torrent Power posted net sales of Rs19,982mn and PAT of Rs2,920mn. We have revised our estimates by incorporating a higher-than-expected input tariff to adjust to the power purchase cost for the company’s two franchise in Bhiwandi and Agra. Due to this, valuation of these businesses increased: Bhiwandi (Rs12/share, earlier Rs9.5/share) and Agra (Rs17/share, earlier Rs7.6/share). We have increased the input tariff by revising the index in Bhiwandi and Agra by 30% and 40%, respectively. Increase in other income to incorporate expected receipt of carbon credits in F12e. Maintain REDUCE.
CESC - Tariff petition clearances likely to wipe off dismal 1HF12 performance CESC’s 2QF12 net sales was Rs12,410mn and PAT was Rs1,140mn. We have revised our estimates by reducing the salaries and wages, as proportion of sales from 11.5% to 9.5%. We have reduced the retail venture’s borrowing requirement from its parent arm in F13e from Rs1,500mn to Rs1,200mn and in F14e from Rs650mn to Rs500mn, due to better performance by the retail venture. Reduced losses at the corporate EBITDA level for F12e/F13e/F14e from a negative of Rs1,494mn/1,190mn/782mn to a negative of Rs1,108mn/958mn/519mn for Spencer’s by looking at the company’s ability to maintain a healthy SSS growth, lower RODC, employee and advertisement cost, despite its plans to open new stores. Maintain BUY.
Neyveli Lignite Corporation - Performance in line; maintain BUY Neyveli Lignite Corporation posted net sales of Rs11,588mn and PAT of Rs2,784mn. We have reduced our EPS estimate for F12e/ F13e by 13.1/ 20% to Rs7.9/17.8, respectively, owing to the incorporation of the Mining Bill, TPS-III (1,00MW – replacement project) and reduction of lignite production from its mines in Barsingsar due to teething problems in commissioning the plant. We maintain a BUY rating with a revised target price of Rs120.
The 2QF12 performance of our covered companies remains almost in line with our expectation. A significant pick up in capitalisation by Power Grid and the pass through (by CERC) of J&K water charges remains the key positives in 2QF12. We maintain our UNDERWEIGHT view on the sector and prefer regulated utilities. Power Grid, Neyveli Lignite, CESC and NTPC are our preferred picks.
Power Sector Monthly Update – November 2011 SBICAP Securities Ltd
November 28, 2011 | 8
Generation companies under coverage
0
20
40
60
80
100
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800Se
p-10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar
-11
Apr-
11
May
-11
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug-
11
Sep-
11
(%)
(MW
)
Neyveli Lignite
Capacity - (MW) PLF (%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
8,000
16,000
24,000
32,000
Sep-
10O
ct-1
0N
ov-1
0D
ec-1
0Ja
n-11
Feb-
11M
ar-1
1Ap
r-11
May
-11
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Aug-
11Se
p-11
(%)
(MW
)
NTPC
Coal Capacity (MW) Gas Capacity (MW)
Coal - PLF (%) Gas - PLF (%)
0
25
50
75
100
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Sep-
10O
ct-1
0N
ov-1
0D
ec-1
0Ja
n-11
Feb-
11M
ar-1
1Ap
r-11
May
-11
Jun-
11Ju
l-11
Aug-
11Se
p-11
(%)
(MW
)
NHPC
Capacity (MW) PLF - (%)
0
25
50
75
100
0
150
300
450
600
Sep-
10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar
-11
Apr-
11
May
-11
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug-
11
Sep-
11
(%)
(MW
)
CESC
Capacity (MW) PLF (%)
0
30
60
90
120
0
300
600
900
1,200
Sep-
10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar
-11
Apr-
11
May
-11
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug-
11
Sep-
11
(%)
(MW
)
Torrent Power
Coal Based Plants Capacity (Sabarmati & Vatwa) Gas based (Sugen) Capacity
PLF Generated from Coal based plants (%) PLF generated from Gas based Generation (Sugen) (%)
Source: SSL, CEA
News during the month Power investment slows, chronic deficit worsens. Click here Power ministry scales down goal for 12th plan. Click here Private sector adds 4,30MW of 7,500MW from Apr-Oct’11. Click here Neyveli Lignite set to light 250MW unit. Click here TNEB plans to hike tariff by 25-40%. Click here
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Sanjay Vaid SVP & Co-Head (Equities) 42273343 [email protected]
Sriram N.S. Deputy Head - Sales Trading 42273318 [email protected]
INSTITUTIONAL SALES Sidharth Agrawal Assistant Vice President 42273481 sidharth.agrawal@ sbicapsec.com
Pankaj Karde Sr. Manager 42273488 pankaj.karde@ sbicapsec.com
Kishor Binwal Sr. Manager 42273480 [email protected]
Jitender Kumar CMT Sr. Manager – Quant Analyst 42273483 [email protected]
Nishit Paleja Manager 42273479 [email protected]
Piyush Khandelwal Manager – Business Development 42273489 [email protected]
Kunal Sukhani Manager 42273485 [email protected]
INSTITUTIONAL DEALING
Arundhati Parab Sr. Sales Trader 42273434 [email protected]
Vikas Nathani Sr. Sales Trader 42273433 [email protected]
INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH Rabindranath Nayak Lead Analyst Power & Capital Goods 42273310 [email protected]
Alok Ramachandran Associate Power 42273478 [email protected]
Nirav Vasa Associate Capital Goods 42273460 [email protected]
Ravikant Bhat Analyst Banking 42273349 [email protected]
Divyanshi Dayanand Analyst Banking 42273385 [email protected]
Aayush Dureha Trainee Banking 42273456 [email protected]
Manish Kumar Analyst Infrastructure/Construction 42273388 [email protected]
Vivek Kumar Analyst Pharma 42273312 [email protected]
Akshit Shah Analyst Realty 42273329 [email protected]
Sagarika Mukherjee Analyst FMCG 42273386 [email protected]
Vaishali Parkar Analyst Auto 42273364 [email protected]
Rahul Kundnani Analyst Media 42273387 [email protected]
Dipesh Mehta Analyst IT 42273311 [email protected]
Ankit Pande Associate IT 42273458 [email protected]
Jatin Damania Analyst Metal, Mining & Pipes 42273361 [email protected]
Dikshit Mittal Analyst Oil & Gas 42273330 [email protected]
Gunjan Poddar Associate Oil & Gas 42273363 [email protected]
Milind Raginwar Analyst Cement 42273362 [email protected]
Sanjay Bhansali Production in Charge 42273313 [email protected]
Key to investment Ratings
Guide to the expected return over the next 12 months. 1=BUY (expected to give absolute returns of 20 or more percentage points); 2=ACCUMULATE/ADD (expected to give absolute returns between 10 to 20 percentage points); 3=REDUCE (expected to give absolute returns between 0 to 10 percentage points); 4=SELL (expected to give absolute negative returns)
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