power consumption pattern modeling for effective distribution

POWER CONSUMPTION PATTERN MODELING FOR EFFECTIVE DISTRIBUTION NETWORK PLANNING

Chai Choung Jung .

. Master of Engineering 2009

Puat Khidmat Maklumat Akademik UNIVERSm MALAYSIA SARAWAK

Power Consumption Pattern Modeling for Effective Distribution Network

Planning P.KHIDMAT MAKLUMAT AKAD!MIK

1IIIIIIIIIIi'i~ 111111111 1000248144

CHAICHOUNGJUNG

This thesis is submitted in fulfillment of

the requirements for Master of Engineering

(Electronics)

Faculty of Engineering

UNIVERSITI MALAYSIA SARAWAK

2009

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DEDICATION

Dedicated to my dad, mom, brother, sister and friends

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

First and foremost I would like to express my appreciation to everyone who directly and

indirectly giving me assistance through out the study. I would like to thank Madam Kho Lee

Chin and Dr. Siti Halipah Ibrahim, my academic supervisors, as well as Ir. Leslie Chai Kim Pau

and Mr. Alvin Lim Khiok Leong, my industrial supervisors, for giving me guidance and help

along the completion of this study.

I would like to thank Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (UNIMAS) and Syarikat SESCO

Berhad for financial, equipments and facility support throughout the research activities. My

deepest thanks to my family for their love, encouragement and support that they have given me

throughout the whole process. I would also like to express my sincere thanks and gratitude to my

colleagues and friends, Mr. Leong Weng Ik, Miss Elna Akam, Mr. Kusyairi Kipli, Mr.Raden

Chekra Muda, Mr. Lee Eng Sian, Mr. Lee Hock Kiong, Mr. Iu Cho Seng, Mr. Bujang Borhan,

Mr. Wee Choon Kiat, Mr. Bujang Edin, Mr. Rosli Mustapha, Mr. Mark Errelson, Mr. Yap She

Ann, Mr. Tay Chang Siong, Mr. Lai Sung Lin, Mr. Chai Tze Kiong, Mr. Lee Ted Yong and Mr.

Bengsoon Siteh for lending their helping hands when I face with difficulty during my study.

Finally, my deepest gratitude goes out to all my dearest friends who have given me the

moral support, encouragement, assistance and comfort that I needed during these years here. To

them, I wish the best of luck and may the future hold bright for you all.

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ABSTRACT

The demand for electricity is increasing due to population growth. The power

consumption pattern become critical issues to be investigated so that the network can be planned,

designed and operated efficiently to meet the increasing yearly demand.

In this study, multistage cluster sampling is used to calculate the sample size. Power

consumption data for every 15 minutes time interval was recorded by using EDMI Mk.6 Genius

polyphase electronic (E3) meter. Once power consumption data is collected, power consumption

pattern, load factor, diversity factor, after diversity maximum demand, distribution transfonner

size and l1kV cable size can be detennined. Analysis on temperature sensitivity related to the

demand and method to improve overall load factor will be carried out.

The result shows that power consumption pattern is influenced by consumer behaviour,

time and weather. For the consumer behaviour factor, differences in numbers, sizes and types of

electrical appliance will greatly influence the demand and maximum demand of the power

consumption pattern. For time factor, demand for domestic 'consumer is high during nighttime as

compared to daytime. Weather is also a factor which can affect the demand. In this study,

analysis on temperature sensitivity related to the demand shows that when the temperature

increases, the demand will also increase.

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The result shows that commercial unit floor has the highest value of after diversity

maximum demand followed by detached house, semi-detached house, terrace house and

residential unit floor. Based on the value of after diversity maximum demand and the unit of

different types of consumers needed, more accurate total electrical load, distribution transformer

size and 11 kV cable size can be determined.

The power consumption pattern model had been created by using graphical user interface.

By entering the unit of different types of consumers needed, this model is able to determine

accurately total electrical load, distribution transformer size and the 11 kV cable size needed.

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ABSTRAK

Pertumbuhan penduduk telah menyebabkan permintaan untuk bekalan elektrik semakin

meningkat. Corak penggunaan kuasa menjadi isu kritikal untuk diselidiki supaya rangkaian

bekalan elektrik boleh dirancang, direka dan dikendalikan dengan cekap untuk memenuhi

permintaan elektrik tah~man yang semakin meningkat.

Dalam projek ini, pensampelan kelompok pelbagai tahap (multistage cluster sampling)

digunakan untuk mengira saiz sample. Data penggunaan kuasa dengan sela masa 15 minit

dirakamkan dengan menggunakan meter pelbagai fasa elektronik (E3) EDMI Mk.6 Genius.

Selepas data pengunaan kuasa diperoleh, corak penggunaan kuasa, faktor beban (load factor),

faktor kepelbagaian (diversity factor), permintaan maksimum selepas kepelbagaian (after

diversity maximum demand, ADMD), saiz transformer agihan (distribution transformer) dan saiz

kabel agihan 11kV (J 1kV distribution cable) boleh ditentukan. Analisis terhadap hubungan

antara kepekaan suhu dengan permintaan dan kaedah untuk memperbaiki faktor beban dapat

ditentukam.

Keputusan daripada kajian menunjukkan bahawa corak penggunaan kuasa dipengaruhi

tingkah laku pengguna, mas a dan cuaca. Bagi faktor tingkah laku pengguna, permintaan dan

mempengarllhi permintaan maksimum corak penggunaan kuasa dipengarllhi oleh jenis, bilangan

dan saiz peralatan yang berbeza. Bagi faktor masa, penggunaan bekalan elektrik oleh pengguna

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domestik adalah tinggi pada waktu malam jika dibandingkan dengan siang hari. Cuaca adalah

satu faktor yang memberi banyak kesan terhadap permintaan. Analisis terhadap hubllngan

antara kepekaan suhu dengan permintaan menunjukkan bahawa apabila suhu meningkat,

permintaan juga akan bertambah.

Keputusan menunjukkan bahawa unit komersial itu mempunyai nilai tertinggi bagi

permintaan maksimum selepas kepelbagaian. Ini dUkuti dengan rumah sesebuah, rumah

berkembar, rumah teres dan kediaman atas kedai. Berdasarkan nilai permintaan maksimum

selepas kepelbagaian dan bilangan unit komersial, kediaman atas kedai dan pelbagai jenis

rumah yang diperlukan serta nilai muatan elektrik yang lebih tepat, saiz transformer agihan dan

saiz kabel agihan 11kVyang diperlukan boleh ditentukan.

Model corak penggunaan kuasa dibentuk dengan menggunakan perisian MA TLAB.

Maklumat-maklumat seperti bilangan unit komersial, kediaman atas kedai dan pelbagai jenis

rumah yang diperlukan untuk mengira secara tepat jumlah muatan elektrik, saiz transformer

agihan dan saiz kabel 11k V yang diperlukan.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

CONTENT PAGE

DEDICATION ii

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xxi

LIST OF NOMENCLATURE xxii

ACKNOWLEDGE NT iii

ABSTRACT iv

ABSTRAK vi

TABLE OF CONTENTS viii

LIST OF FIGURES xv

LIST OF TABLES xix

Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Background

1.2 Statement of Problems 3

1.3 Objectives of the Study 4

l.4 Study Overview 5

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Chapter 2 LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Power Distribution System in Sarawak 6

2.2 Planning Criteria 8

2.3 System Loading Limitations 9

2.3.1 331l1kV Substation Transformer 9

2.3 .2 Circuit Breaker 11

2.3.3 Distribution Feeder 11

2.3.4 Distribution Transformer 12

2.4 Cable Distribution -11 KV Cable 13

2.4.1 Introduction to l1KV Cable 13

2.4.2 Factor that Determine llkV Cable Used 14

2.5 Power Consumption Pattern 15

2.6 Factors that Determine Consumer Power Consumption

Pattern 16

2.7 Standard Definition for Load Combination 17

2.7.1 Demand 17

2.7.2 Maximum Demand 17

2.8 Load Factor 18

2.9 Electrical Load Characteristics 20

2.10 Diversity Factor 20

2.11 After Diversity Maximum Demand 22

2.11.1 Determining of ADMD (int) Values 23

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Chapter 3

2.12 General Process of Power Consumption Pattern

Study 24

2.12.1 Define Type of Consumer 25

2.12.2 Sampling Method 25

2.12.3 Collection of Power Consumption Data 26

2.12.4 Power Consumption Pattern Derivation 27

2.12.5 Make Use of Power Consumption Data and

Power Consumption Pattern 27

METHODOLOGY 29

3.1 Introduction 29

3.2 Role of Power Consumption Pattern 29

3.3 Electrical Load Survey Process 30

3.4 Study Concept 31

3.4.1 Define Type of Consumer 33

3.4.2 Sampling Method 33

3.4.3 Electrical Usage Pattern 35

3.4.4 Power Consumption Data 39

3.4.5 Power Consumption Pattern Derivation 40

3.4.6 Temperature Sensitivity Analysis 41

3.5 Hardware and Software 43

3.5.1 EDMI Mk.6 Genius Polyphase Meter

Electronic (E3) Meter 43

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3.5.2 Zero-Power IECII07 (FLAG) Optical Probe 44

3.5.3 Main Wiring Cable 45

3.5.4 MATLAB R2006b Software 47

3.5.4.1 Introduction to Matlab R2006b 47

3.5.4.2 Graphical User Interface Development

Environment (GUIDE) 48

3.5.4.3 Designing a Graphical User Interface 49

3.5.5 EziView Software 51

3.6 Summary 52

Chapter 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 54

4.1 Introduction 54

4.2 Sample Design 54

4.3 Design and Analysis of Questionnaire 55

4.4 Analysis of Power Consumption Pattern 57

4.4.1 Detached House Consumer 58

4.4.1.1 Analysis of Power Consumption Pattern 58

4.4.1.2 Maximum Demand 59

4.4.1.3 Load Factor, Diversity Factor and After

Diversity Maximum Demand 60

4.4.1.4 Analysis ofTemperature Sensitivity 61

4.4.2 Semi-Detached House Consumer 63


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.4.4.3 Terrace House Consumer 68





4.4.3.4 Analysis of Temperature Sensitivity 71

4.4.4 Residential unit Floor Consumer 73





4.4.4.4 Analysis of Temperature Sensitivity 76

4.4.5 Analysis of Power Consumption Pattern for

Domestic Consumers 78

4.4.6 Commercial Unit Floor Consumer 79





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4.5 Comparison of Power Consumption Pattern for Several

Types of Consumers 84

4.6 Comparison of Load Factor for Several Types of

Consumers 86

4.7 Comparison Diversity Factor and After Diversity

Maximum Demand for Several Types of Consumers 88

4.8 Comparison Demand to Temperature Sensitivity Analysis

for Several Types of Consumers 90

4.9 Method to Improve Overall Load Factor 91

4.10 Power Consumption Pattern Model 93

4.11 Summary 95

Chapter 5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 97

5.1 Conclusions 97

5.2 Recommendations 101

BIBLIOGRAPHY 102

APPENDIX 106

A Sample Size Calculation 106

B Questionnaire 118

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C Letter from Syarikat SESCO Berhad and Universiti Malaysia

Sarawak (UNIMAS) for Meter Installation 127

D EDMI Mk.6 Genius Polyphase ELectronic (E3) Meter Specification 129

E Power Consumption Pattern Model Matlab M-File 136

F Power Consumption Pattern Model 146

G Study Sticker 148

H Photo When Doing Meter Installation 149

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FIGURE

Figure 1.1:

Figure 1.2:

Figure 2.1:

Figure 2.2:

Figure 2.3:

Figure 2.4:

Figure 2.5:

Figure 2.6:

Figure 2.7:

Figure 2.8:

Figure 2.9:

Figure 2.10:

Figure 2.11:

Figure 3.1:

Figure 3.2:

Figure 3.3:

LIST OF FIGURES

Estimate total electricity consumer in Sarawak from year

1996 to 2005

Total unit sold (TWh) by Syarikat SESCO Berhad from year

1996 to 2005

Existing generating plants in Sarawak

Basic supply system in Sarawak

Nameplate for 30MVA transformer

30MVA transformer

IlkV feeder

1OOOkVA transformer

Power consumption pattern for detached house consumer

Explanation of load factor

Explanation of diversity factor

Variation of ADMD with number of consumers

General process of power consumption pattern

Process to design the electrical load pattern model

Air conditioning units at detached house consumer

Air conditioning units at semi-detached house consumer

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2

2

6

8

10

10

12

13

16

19

21

22

24

32

37

37

Figure 3.4: Air conditioning units at terrace house consumer 38

Figure 3.5: Air conditioning units at commercial unit floor (ground and 151 floor)

Figure 3.8: Example of graph on demand by temperature for terrace house

Figure 3.l2: Main wiring cable, EDMI Mk.6 Genius polyphase electronic (E3)

Figure 4.1: Usage pattern of air conditioning units for several types of

and residential unit consumer (2nd floor) 38

Figure 3.6: Example of usage pattern of air conditioning units by semi-detached

house consumer 39

Figure 3.7: Example of power consumption pattern for semi-detached consumer 41

consumer 42

Figure 3.9: Example of adding trend line to the original line for terrace house

consumer 43

Figure 3.10: EDMI Mk.6 Genius polyphase electronic (E3) meter 44

Figure 3.11: Zero-power IECII07 (FLAG) optical probe (F6Z-P-D09F-2R) 45

meter and the kilowatt-hour meter 46

Figure 3.13: Interfacing of MA TLAB R2006b 48

Figure 3.14: GUI flowchart of power consumption model 49

Figure 3.15: Layout Editor of the GUIDE 50

Figure 3.16: GUI layout of the power consumption pattern system 51

Figure 3.17: EzView software interface 52

consumers 57

Figure 4.2: Power consumption pattern by detached house consumer 59

Figure 4.3 : Graph on demand by temperature for detached house consumer 61

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Figure 4.4: Adding trend line to the original line for detached house consumer 62

Figure 4.5: Power consumption pattern by semi-detached house consumer 64

Figure 4.6: Graph on demand by temperature for semi-detached house consumer 66

Figure 4.7: Adding trend line to the original line for semi-detached house

consumer 67

Figure 4.8: Power consumption pattern by terrace house consumer 69

Figure 4.9: Graph on demand by temperature for terrace house consumer 71

Figure 4.10: Adding trend line to the original line for terrace house consumer 72

Figure 4.11: Power consumption pattern by residential unit floor consumer 74

Figure 4.12: Graph on demand by temperature for residential unit floor consumer 76

Figure 4.13: Adding trend line to the original line for residential unit floor

consumer 77

Figure 4.14: Power consumption patterns for several types of domes6c consumers 78

Figure 4.15: Power consumption pattern by commercial unit floor consumer 80

Figure 4.16: Graph on demand by temperature for commercial unit floor consumer 82

Figure 4.17: Adding trend line to the original line for commercial unit floor

consumer 83

Figure 4.18: Comparison of power consumption pattern for several types of

consumers 85

Figure 4.19: Load factor for several types of consumers 87

Figure 4.20: Improving load factor 91

Figure 4.21: Interface of power consumption model 94

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Figure 4.22: By entering the number of unit needed, total electrical load,

distribution transformer size and llkV cable size can be determined 94

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LIST OF TABLES

TABLE

Table 2.1: Current rating for several types of 11 k V cables

Table 3.1: Survey area

Table 3.2: Five types of consumers

Table 3.3: Energy consumption for several types of electrical appliances

Table 3.4: Power consumption for a consumer at the selected time within

15 minutes interval

Table 3.5: Specification of the main wiring cable

Table 4.1: Sample size

Table 4.2: Percentage of useable questionnaire return rate

Table 4.3: Maximum demand and time when maximum demand occur for

detached house consumer

Table 4.4: Load factor, diversity factor and after diversity maximum demand

for detached house consumer


semi-detached house consumer


for semi-detached house consumer

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14

30

31

35

40

47

55

56

60

60

64

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terrace house consumer 69


for terrace house consumer 70


residential unit floor consumer 74


for residential unit floor consumer 75


commercial unit floor consumer 80


for commercial unit floor consumer 81

Table 4.13: Summary of maximum demand and time when maximum demand

occur for several types of consumers 85

Table 4.14: Summary of load factor for several types of consumers 87

Table 4.15: Summary of the diversity factor and after diversity maximum demand

for several types of consumers 89

Table 4.16: Equation relate demand to temperature and .R-squared value for

several types of consumers 90

Table 4.17: Load factor for the different combination of two consumer groups 92

Table 5.1: Problems and ways to solve the problem 100

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

ADMD After Diversity Maximum Demand

ABI Air Break Isolators

Al Aluminium

Cu Copper

CSBD Central & Suburban Business District

PVC Polyvinyl Chloride

RMU Ring Main Unit

XLPE Cross-Linked Polyethylene

3C 3 Cores

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LIST OF NOMENCLATURE

e Proportion of sampling error

N Size of the population

p Population proportion

q (l-p)

S Sample size

T Temperature

z Standard score corresponding to a given confidence level

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CHAPTER!

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

Rapid growth of population and depletion of fossil fuel has generated subsequent increase

in demand for electrical power. Nowadays, electricity is supplied to different types of consumers

such as detached house, semi-detached house, terrace house, commercial unit-floor and

residential unit-floor. Different types of consumers use different amounts of electricity. The total

number of electricity consumer in Sarawak has increased every year from 260,214 in 1996 to

414,767 in 2005. The growth rate of electricity consumers within 10 years is 59.39%. Total

electricity sold is 1.94TWh in 1996 and increased to 3.94TWh in 2005. The growth rate of total

electricity demand within 10 years is 103.09%. The number of electricity consumer and the total

amount electricity demand increased dramatically as shown in Figure 1.1 and Figure 1.2

respectively. The power consumption pattern, consumer behaviour and electrical load

characteristic become a critical issue to be investigated in order to design better efficient system

in planning, operation and maintenance to meet the increasing yearly demand (Ngu et al., 2007).

power consumption pattern modeling for effective distribution

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