POVERTY IN AFRICAPOVERTY IN AFRICAUsing Systems Engineering to tackle an Using Systems Engineering to tackle an

insoluble probleminsoluble problem

MIT SDM Program – January 2004MIT SDM Program – January 2004

Design Challenge IIDesign Challenge II

Approach ThemesApproach Themes

• Team 1: Systems Analysis - Communication for Education

• Team 2: Root Cause Analysis – System Dynamics

• Team 3: Causal Analysis – Continental Highway Building Program

• Team 4: Build on current programs – KRITI (Knowledge Reach Improvement Technology)

• Team 5: System Analysis – SMART Plan (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Result-oriented, Time-Based)

• Team 6: Holistic Approach – Rhizome Model

Team 1: System AnalysisTeam 1: System Analysis

Education

Political

Social

Economical

Education

Education

GDP

Common Thread!

AIDS

Income

Health

Good Government

Law Enforcement

...

...

War & Conflicts

... Political Stability

...

• Where do we start?– Brainstorming within team

pointed to education– Review of literature revealed

govt policies, good governance, better data, “voice” of people

– System dynamics models developed to help focus ..

• How to use system dynamics models?– Concept was to look for

common threads– These might suggest areas to

focus on– Conclusion: good governance

and education

Concept developmentConcept development• Communication and education were therefore chosen as

the area for a project• Concept:

– ICT (information and communication technology) is a fundamental ingredient in the development toolkit

• Focus on primary education, health, agriculture etc

• ICT also enables greater connectivity between all parties, facilitating greater ‘voice’ from community

• Implementation proposal:– Africa Education Network (AEN)– To date effort has been on development of ICT infrastructure– Proposal is to focus on Content and put in place the necessary

capacities to manage both Content and Connectivity

Project OverviewProject OverviewOpportunities• UNESCO has developed CMCs (Community Multimedia Centers)

focusing on:– Radio– Low cost internet systems– Low cost renewable energy sources

• Existing satellite coverage over sub-Saharan continentAEN project will• be a continental broadcaster of education content for television,

radio, and internet• be a satellite-delivered content provider of educational information• utilize Africans to Educate Africa, focusing on garnering support and

hiring from African Universities• attempt to create relationships with the African Union and UNESCO

in hopes of utilizing their infrastructure to facilitate delivery and develop education-specific content

Team 2: The ProcessTeam 2: The Process

Determine Improvement Priorities

• Fishbone Diagram• 5 Whys • Root Causes

• Prioritize

Assign the team

• CommitProblem Statement

• Visualize

Celebrate AchievementsBuild for Tomorrow

• Sustain the Plan

• Achieve

Define Existing Process Plan Improvements

• Root Cause detailed analysis• Dynamics Diagrams

• CharacterizeDesign and Implement

Improvements • Brainstorming• Development Plan• Technology Based Improvements

ImproveImprove

Root Cause AnalysisRoot Cause Analysis5 Whys Mind-Manager Tree

Root Cause Analysis

Identify All Root Causes

Focus on Issues Technology where

technology can have an impact

Focus on Key Root Causes

Rate Importance and Level of Impact

Summery of Root Summery of Root CausesCauses

•Socio-PoliticalSocio-Political•EconomicEconomic•EducationEducation•HealthcareHealthcare•InfrastructureInfrastructure

System Dynamics – Short TermSystem Dynamics – Short Term

Improves Access for Industry

Provides Healthier Workforce

Education

Access

Ab

ility

to

Att

end

Creates Employment

Family Welfare

Develop Insurance Process Improved Healthcare

InvestmentInfrastructure

Identify Countries for Participation

Policies & Reforms

Build Strategic Partnership with

Participating Country

AID

AID from Stakeholders

System For Accountability

Manpower from Neighboring

Countries

Business Investment

Investment

Retur

n (R

OI)

Labor Intensive Manufacturing, Agriculture, etc.

Industry

FocusedTraining

Revenue

AID + GDP >= Dev Cost + Maint Cost + Import Costs

Mineral Resources

Build Strategic Partnership with Next

Country Group

System Dynamics – Long TermSystem Dynamics – Long Term

Company Based

Healthcare Insurance

Creates Employment

Re-Investment

Maintain Strategic Partnership with

Participating Country

Policies & Reforms

Family Welfare

World Standard

Healthcare

Infrastructure

Education

Improves Access for Industry

Provides Healthier Workforce

Next Generation Workforce

Access

Ab

ility

to

Att

end

Retur

n (R

OI)

Business Investment

Investm

ent

Industry

Training

Businesses

Teach Him to Fish, You Feed Him for Life

Revenue

AID + GDP >= Dev Cost + Maint Cost + Import Costs

Real Estate EquityEst. $1trillion (1997)

Team 3: ApproachTeam 3: Approach• System’s approach

– Gathered information and brainstormed

– Divided into major areas

– Identified links within these areas: cause effects

– Selected

• areas to impact, what can we affect?

• core issues, what are the root causes

– Identified common major root cause

– Solutions based upon most influence on identified root cause

ECONOMY EDUCATION

HEALTHHUNGER

POLITICS CULTURE

GEOGRAPHY INFRASTRUCTURE

• Short-term Goal

– Pilot program CHBP (Douala to Bangui, 1100 km)

– Program combines infrastructure and educational development focused on socio-cultural growth

• Long-term Goal

– Education

• Ties to political, economical

and cultural growth

– Economic stimulus

• Through trade, region cooperation

• Access to previously unavailable resources to landlocked countries

– Whole “equatorial” road (Douala to Mombasa)

• Long-term

– Use the model: community development while providing education to the people

– Continue CDHP throughout all regions of Africa

Short Term – Long Term RecommendationsShort Term – Long Term Recommendations

Lessons Learned Lessons Learned • Lessons learned about complex systems

– There are so many aspects to consider to come up with viable solutions

– So many stakeholders with diverse values that it is difficult to address everybody’s needs

• Lessons about Africa

– Access to education is key

– Politics are the big road block

– We realized an appreciation for the Intricacies of the issues of Sub-Saharan Africa (social, political, economical, cultural, etc.)

Team 4: Issues & Proposed Team 4: Issues & Proposed ApproachesApproaches

Population

Capital

Resources

Soci

al

Ven

tur

esK

now

ledge

Em

pow

erme

nt

Partners in

Development

Solution

Sub-Saharan Africa: ApproachesSub-Saharan Africa: Approaches

• No radical measures– Do not rock the boat too much– Build on the good work– Drastic intervention is often counterproductive

• Identify existing successful projects and amplify their effect using the right technologies

• KRITI is our alternative solution to accomplish the above

The KRITI Project The KRITI Project KRITI: KRITI: KKnowledge nowledge RReach each IImprovement mprovement TTechnology echnology

IInitiativenitiative

• Build alternative education & knowledge delivery mechanisms

• Develop “knowledgebase” of information with the help of aid organizations

Leverage technology as a means to be more efficient in development effortsVery low barrier-to-entry in terms of costs & skillsApply concepts of “knowledge-web”

Coordination System

IMMEDIATE NEEDS

I. Framework

Monitoring System

CC Matrix

Stakeholder Model

IMPLEMENTATION(Tech, Non-Tech.)

Decomposition Model

SUSTAINABLE

Humanitarian DevelopmentAID

POVERTY

Concept Strategy Execution

Team 5: Approach - SMARTTeam 5: Approach - SMART

Concept Strategy ExecutionII. CC Matrix

COUNTRY: Burkina Faso

DATE: 27-Jan-04Influence

on PovertyCorrup-

tion

Lack of Infrastruct

ure

Ineffective

utilisation of natural

res.

Poor Education

Low National

Wealth

Instable

geopoli-tical

Situation

High Population

Growth

Lack of Health

Care

Low Economic

Growth

Corruption 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 11

Lack of Infrastructure

5 4 3 1 3 5 16

Ineffective utilis. of nat. resources

3 3 3 6

Poor Education 5 4 1 5 2 4 16

Low National Wealth

3 2 5 1 5 5 18

Instable Geopoli. Situation

3 2 2 2 3 9

High Population Growth

4 1 2 1 4

Lack of Health

care3 2 2 5 3 12

Low Economic Growth

5 5 5

2 9 15 12 13 4 10 12 20 97

CONSEQUENCES

CAUSES

? ?

II. C. …contd. (Scatter-gram)

Concept Strategy Execution

Poor education

Lack of health careCorruption

Lack of infrastructure

Ineffective utilization of natural resources

Low National Wealth

Instable geopolitical situation

High population growth Low economic growth

0

5

10

15

20

0 5 10 15 20 25

# of causes

# of consequences

SelectionPath

3 years 5 yearsStart 3yr. - 10%

5yr. - 30%

Concept Strategy Execution

Butane Gravel-surface Roads

STAKEHOLDERS

Burkina Faso Govt.

- Expand national campaign to promote the use of Butane

International Cooperation

- Donate used portable Butane containers

- Pay for transportation to BF

World Organizations

- Coordinate efforts to provide used portable Butane containers

Stirling Engine

STAKEHOLDERS

Burkina Faso Govt.

- Promote use of Stirling Engines

International Cooperation

- Subsidize development and deployment costs of Stirling Engines

Local Administration

- Substitute Stirling Engines for Classical Engines to produce electricity

STAKEHOLDERS

Burkina Faso Govt.

- Formulate policy on infrastructure with prioritization on road constructions in areas where Butane is promoted as an alternative energy source

International Cooperation

- Provide support on the application of labor-based method in road construction

III. 3 year and 5 year Plan (Power Supply + Road)

What We Believe:We believe that an integrated solution, based on a holistic examination of the complete system, is required to resolve the “poverty” issue in Sub-Saharan Africa

Our Mission:To enable the transition of a group from an unstable socioeconomic state to a developing, learning, and self sustaining state by planning, and implementing highly customized and integrated solutions.

Team 6: The Rhizome GroupTeam 6: The Rhizome Group

Government Policy

Agriculture

Infrastructure

Industry Development

Health Care

EducationSocial Services

Human Development

Economic Stability Foreign Investors

Economic GrowthIncrease Life Expectancy

Decrease Poverty

Increase Employment Stabilize Economy Privatize Economy

Promote Entrepreneurship

The Rhizome Model

Rhizome Implementation ProcessRhizome Implementation ProcessNigeria exampleNigeria example

• Initial Layer– Government Policy Reform

• Second Layer– Utilize Petroleum– Advance Agriculture– Improve Infrastructure

• Transition Layer– Improve Health– Advance Education– Advance Human Rights– BOT (Build - Own/Operate -

Transfer)

• Mitigation Layer– Adjustments due to transient

circumstances

Infrastructure

Agriculture Petroleum

Government Policies

External

Internal

Reaction of Surrounding

Countries

Health

Education

Social Equality

Research De-scopeFocusedResearch

CustomizedPlan

RhizomeImplementation

What did we learn?What did we learn?• The system is very complex

– no simple solutions– Difficult to predict affect of interventions

• Development must try to affect all areas together– education, health, policies, economic growth etc

• Development requires– Lots of NGOs, local civil society organizations– Lots of communication between everyone!– Common measures of poverty => MDG indicators!– Adaptability – listen to people, adapt accordingly

• ICTs will play a major role in education and empowering people to help themselves and provide feedback to help steer development

• We have a better respect for NGOs and their challenges!

Summary and Lessons LearnedSummary and Lessons Learned• Summary • There is no golden bullet, the problem is not a technical one• The dynamics of the system is the most important aspect for any solution• Must negotiate commitment for the change from all the stakeholders

• Government• Grass Roots• Investment community• AID associations

• Application of Technology is only a product of the process• Solutions will be different in each county• Sticking to a disciplined process will allow the freedom for change

• Short Term: Use Industry and AID to spin up dynamics• Long Term: Manage a stable economy allowing removal of AID

• Lessons Learned• Not a two week problem – too long a history to be understood • Dynamics are incredibly complicated and diverse• Need to implement change taking into account the politics, culture, and structure. One aspect in isolation is not enough.• Complex Systems Dynamics (like Africa) can not be viewed in a single shot