poor and minority impacts from hurricane ikehrrc.arch.tamu.edu/_common/documents/poor and minority...

Poor and

Minority Impacts

from

Hurricane Ike

Shannon Van Zandt, Ph.D., AICP

Research supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation (#0928926) entitled Developing A Living Laboratory for Examining Community Recovery and Resilience After Disaster and from a series of grants funded by NOAA, the TGLO and the CCC. The authors and not the NSF, NOAA, TGLO, or the CCC are responsible for the any findings and opinions expressed in this presentation or the paper upon which it is based. The full paper can be found in Housing Policy Debate, 22:1, 29-55

Objectives and outline

• Introduce group to “living laboratory”

research from 2008’s Hurricane Ike on

Galveston Island (TX)

– My focus on social vulnerability factors,

particularly as they relate to the spatial

distribution of housing

• Highlight related findings

Geography of Opportunity

• Sprawl, concentrated poverty,

and segregation have shaped

metropolitan areas in ways that

exacerbate existing economic

and social inequalities

• The geography of opportunity is

based on two main premises:

– where one lives is critical for

taking advantage of available

opportunities;

– households have unequal

abilities to live in places with

good opportunities

Inequalities may be due to:

• Discrimination in lending and real estate industries

• A lack of, and a poor distribution of housing opportunities Housing market segmentation

Uneven regional growth

Clustering of low-income housing

Consequences include: Poorer access to opportunity

Greater exposure to hazards

Housing inequalities determine the spatial

pattern of Social Vulnerability (SV)

Levels of Social Vulnerability Analysis

Base Social Vulnerability Indicators (percentages) 2nd

Order 3rd

Order

1. Single parent households with children/Total Households Child care Needs

Socially Vulnerable

Hotspot

2. Population 5 or below/Total Population

3. Population 65 or above/Total Population Elder Care Needs 4. Population 65 or above & below poverty/Pop. 65 or above

5. Workers using public transportation/Civilian pop. 16+ and employed Transportation needs 6. Occupied housing units without a vehicle/Occupied housing units (HUs)

7. Occupied Housing units/Total housing units

Temporary Shelter and

housing recovery

needs

8. Persons in renter occupied housing units/Total occupied housing units

9. Non-white population/Total population

10. Population in group quarters/Total population

11. Housing units built 20 years ago/Total housing Units

12. Mobile Homes/Total housing units

13. Persons in poverty/Total population

14. Occupied housing units without a telephone/Total occupied HU

Civic Capacity needs

15. Population above 25 with less than high school/Total pop above 25

16. Population 16+ in labor force and unemployed/Pop in Labor force 16+

17. Population above 5 that speak English not well or not at all/Pop > 5

Source: Van Zandt, S., W.G. Peacock, *D. Henry, H. Grover, W. Highfield, and S. Brody. 2012. Mapping

Social Vulnerability to Enhance Housing and Neighborhood Resilience. Housing Policy Debate 22(1): 29-55.

Example: SV indices overlaid with

Cat 1&2 surge zones

coastalatlas.tamug.edu

Hurricane Ike • Hurricane Ike (Galveston, TX 2008)

provided an opportunity to validate SV mapping technique and examine impacts for socially vulnerable groups

• Select study objectives – Did the spatial distribution of vulnerable populations

mitigate or exacerbate damage and loss to property? – Do social vulnerability factors facilitate or impede

decision-making with regard to dislocation and early repair/rebuilding decisions?

– How do pre-existing physical and social development patterns alter the long-term recovery trajectories for socially vulnerable households and housing in physically and socially vulnerable neighborhoods?

Data and methods

• Multiple data sources used: – Primary data:

• Longitudinal panel survey of 1500 single family structures

• Longitudinal panel survey of approximately 550 households

– Secondary data sources • Galveston permit data

• County appraisal district (CAD) parcel data

• Analyses include: – Correlation analysis of impacts and actions taken by

socially vulnerable groups

– Spatial analysis relating development patterns to damage

– Longitudinal analysis of housing recovery

– Long-term displacement

In the urban core of Galveston, many lower

quality homes are only elevated a foot or

less off the ground, if at all. Here, a poorly-

constructed home has slid off its

foundation, and the other structural

systems have also collapsed.

FINDING: Inequitable development

patterns affected damage received

In contrast, a West End vacation home

sits well above the surge level, a block

off the gulf coast, these high-quality

homes received only wind damage,

which as seen here, was quite minimal.

PREDICTED Using the Social

Vulnerability

Indicators from the

Coastal Community

Planning Atlas

OBSERVED From Primary Data

Collected After

Hurricane Ike

Transportation-dependent

populations

Evacuated later

r=-0.249*



FINDING:


Vulnerability

Indicators from the

Coastal Community

Planning Atlas


Collected After

Hurricane Ike

Households with high

recovery needs

r=-0.235*

Had higher levels of overall damage



FINDING:


Vulnerability

Indicators from the

Coastal Community

Planning Atlas


Collected After

Hurricane Ike

Households with high social vulnerability

Applied less to FEMA and SBA for aid

r=-0.289*



FINDING:

Higher levels of damage seen to

minority neighborhoods—even

after accounting for the age of the

housing and the proximity of the

housing unit to water and the

seawall.

Source: Highfield, W., W.G. Peacock, and S. Van Zandt. 2013. Determinants of Damage to Single-Family Housing from

Hurricane-induced Surge and Flooding: Why Hazard Exposure, Structural Vulnerability, AND Social Vulnerability Matter in

Mitigation Planning. Conditional accept at the Journal of Planning Education & Research.

FINDING: Minority neighborhoods received

greater degrees of damage

FINDING: Lower-value homes

recovered more slowly

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

2008_09 2009_04 2009_09 2010_09

• The average property value pre-storm was $152,155, and dropped 20.1% due to Ike damage.

• Average property values regained 95.5% of the pre-storm value within two years.

• Lower value homes experienced greater damage, lost a greater proportion of their value, and have only recovered 82% of their pre-storm value.

5%

37%

39%

19%

Distribution of Damage

No Damage

Minor

Moderate

Severe

Ho

use

Val

ue

Single-Family Housing

Appraisal date

Source: Van Zandt, S. T. Chang, and W.G. Peacock. 2011. Residential Rebuilding After Disaster: Findings from

Galveston, TX. Association of College Schools of Planning, Salt Lake City, UT, October 14, 2011.

FINDING: Long-term displacement

of African-Americans Galveston

46%

25%

25%

51% 39%

1%

Bolivar

35%

19%

42%

Mainland

Hispanic

White

African-American

Distribution of Students enrolled in GISD, January 2010

Van Zandt, S. , W.G. Peacock, D. Henry, and S. Willems. Demographic Impacts of

Natural Disasters. Urban Affairs Association Annual Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, April

21, 2012.

Summary

• Disparate impacts to SV populations and their housing generate the potential for redevelopment and population change, including:

– Loss of affordable housing stock

– Exacerbation of pre-existing inequities

• Highlights need for:

– Targeting of resources

– Capacity-building within SV populations

– Pre-event planning for equitable recovery

THE NEXT GENERATION

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