policy forum series: smith - natural gas as fuel for electric generation in the midwest

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Natural Gas as a Fuel for Electric Generation in the Midwest: The Regional Context Policy Forum Series: Natural Gas and Minnesota’s Energy Future September 21, 2012

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Page 1: Policy Forum Series: Smith - Natural Gas as Fuel for Electric Generation in the Midwest

Natural Gas as a Fuel for Electric Generation in the

Midwest: The Regional Context

Policy Forum Series: Natural Gas and Minnesota’s Energy Future

September 21, 2012

Page 2: Policy Forum Series: Smith - Natural Gas as Fuel for Electric Generation in the Midwest

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MISO Reliability Coordination Area, June 2012

Coal48%

Gas/Oil32%

Nuclear6%

Renewables14%

MISO Overview

Page 3: Policy Forum Series: Smith - Natural Gas as Fuel for Electric Generation in the Midwest

Energy Production Mix

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77% 78%74%

65%

14% 14% 14% 13%

3% 3% 6%

12%

3% 3% 5%7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2009 2010 2011 2012

Contrib

ution  to  Total  Ene

rgy  Served

Year

January  through  July  Energy  Contribution  by  Fuel  Source

Coal Nuclear Gas Wind

Page 4: Policy Forum Series: Smith - Natural Gas as Fuel for Electric Generation in the Midwest

Queue Makeup Reflects Shifting Energy Policies

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0%  

10%  

20%  

30%  

40%  

50%  

60%  

70%  

80%  

90%  

100%  

1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012  

Wood  

Wind  

Waste  Heat  Recovery  

Steam  

Solar  

Nuclear  

Landfill  Gas  

Hydro  

Gas  

Diesel  

Combined  Cycle  

Co-­‐Gen  

Coal  

Biomass  &  Natural  Gas  

Biomass  

Page 5: Policy Forum Series: Smith - Natural Gas as Fuel for Electric Generation in the Midwest

Generation Interconnection Queue

Page 6: Policy Forum Series: Smith - Natural Gas as Fuel for Electric Generation in the Midwest

MISO’s September survey still indicates many EPA compliance decisions have yet to be made

•  Vacated by District Court •  Minimal impact on MISO coal

retirements •  Uncertainties remain •  Most retrofits focused on Dry

Sorbent Injection (DSI) and Activated Carbon Injection (ACI)

•  Less capital •  Less outage •  Higher production costs

Cross State Air Pollution Rule

Mercury and Air Toxins Standard

Sept Survey Results* 66 19 47 35 5 7 June Survey Results 66 19 47 35 4 8 March Survey Results 66 18 48 31 5 12 MISO Study (10/2012) 66 9 57 44 13 -

GWs Impacted

Coal Resources Affected – 3rd Quarter Survey Capacity, GW

Total Affected

Uneconomic / Replace

No Action

Required

Total Coal

Control Required

TBD / No Response

47 35

5 7

66 19

295 Units

242 Units

74 Units

98 Units

70 Units

53 Units

6 *Sept survey results does not represent all expected respondents. June results used where needed.

Page 7: Policy Forum Series: Smith - Natural Gas as Fuel for Electric Generation in the Midwest

Overview of MISO region major pipelines

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