pocketbook on candidate and western balkan countries

8/9/2019 Pocketbook on Candidate and Western Balkan Countries

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Generaland regionalstatistics

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'Key figures for Candidate and Western Balkan countries -a comparison with the EU'This publication has been produced by Unit E4 of Eurostat, responsiblefor statistical co-operation with European and Mediterranean countries.The opinions expressed are those of the individual authors alone and donot necessarily reflect the position of the European Commission.

Director of Directorate EMr P. Everaers

Head of Unit E4Mr A. Butkevicius

Co-ordinatorsMr P. Vegis, Mr S. Clarke and Ms M. VasileEurostat Unit E4Statistical Office of the European CommunitiesBtiment Jean Monnetrue Alcide de GasperiL-2920Luxembourg (Kirchberg)e-mail: [email protected] and [email protected]: (+352) 4301 32139

ProductionData collection, data processing, statistical analysis, design and desk-toppublishing by INFORMA sarl (Luxembourg): Giovanni Albertone, SimonAllen, Sverine Gautron, Andrew Redpath, Markus Voget

CreditsIt would not have been possible to make this publication without theconsiderable amount of co-operation and goodwill received from alarge number of persons working in the National Statistical Institutes ofthe Candidate countries and Western Balkans.


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CANDIDATE COUNTRIES - CONTACT DETAILSBULGARIA (BG)National Statistical Institute2, P. Volov Str.BG-1038 Sofia

http://www.nsi.bgCROATIA (HR)Central Bureau of Statistics of CroatiaIlica 3, PO Box 67110000 Zagrebhttp://www.dzs.hr

ROMANIA (RO)National Institute of Statistics16, Libertatii Avenue, Sector 5RO-70542 Bucharesthttp://www.insse.ro

TURKEY (TR)Turkish Statistical Institute114 Necatibey Caddesi06100 Ankarahttp://www.die.gov.tr/ENGLISH/index.html

WESTERN BALKANS - CONTACT DETAILSALBANIA (AL)Institute of StatisticsRr. Leke Dukagjini 5Tiranahttp://www.instat.gov.al

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA (BA)Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and HerzegovinaZelenih Beretki 2671000 Sarajevohttp://www.bhas.ba

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (MK*)State Statistical OfficeDame Gruev 4, PO Box 506Skopjehttp://www.stat.gov.mk* Provisional code which does not prejudge in any way the definitivenomenclature for this country (which will be agreed following the conclusion of negotiations currently taking place on this subject at the United Nations).

SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO (CS)Statistical Office of Serbia and Montenegro (SOSM)Kneza Milosa 20, PO Box 20311000 Belgradehttp://www.szs.sv.gov.yu

KOSOVO (XK*)Statistical Office in Kosovo (SOK)Rr Zenel Salihu Nr 4Pristinahttp://www.ks-gov.net/esk* IMPORTANT NOTE: Kosovo is under international administration in line withUnited Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1244 of 10 June 1999; XK is anunofficial code (which does not prejudge in any way the definitive nomenclature).


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Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6

1. Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12Population and population density . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12Population growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14Population growth and population breakdown by age group . . . . . . .16Crude birth, death and natural increase rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18Fertility, infant mortality and life expectancy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20

2. Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22Early school leavers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22Completion of upper secondary education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24Number of pupils/students by ISCED level of education . . . . . . . . . . . .26Tertiary graduates in science and technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28Expenditure on education and participation in training . . . . . . . . . . . .30

3. Social indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32Wages and salaries and the equality of income distribution . . . . . . . . .32Social inequality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34Household consumption expenditure and social expenditure . . . . . . . .36

4. Labour force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38Employment rates and activity rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38Employment rates and activity rates by gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40Employment rates and activity rates for older workers (aged 55-64) . . .42Number of persons employed and employment by sector . . . . . . . . . .44Unemployment rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46

Youth and long-term unemployment rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48

5. National accounts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50Final consumption expenditure and breakdown of GDP . . . . . . . . . . .52External trade relative to GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .54

Breakdown of gross value added by sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56Relative change in gross value added by sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58Labour productivity and employment change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60

6. Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62General government deficit and debt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62General government debt and gross foreign debt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64Balance of payments and the current account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66Foreign direct investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .68Money supply and interest rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70Exchange rates, consumer price indices, value of reserve assets . . . . . .72


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7. Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74Utilised agricultural area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74Utilised agricultural area, wooded area and other land . . . . . . . . . . . .76Livestock and dairy cows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .78Animals for slaughter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .80Crop production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .82

8. Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .84Energy intensity, electricity generation and renewable energy . . . . . . .84Primary production of energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .86Energy balance sheet and energy consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .88Breakdown of final energy consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .90

9. Industry, construction and services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .92Production and output price indices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .92Construction output and construction costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .94Retail trade and tourism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .96

10. Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .98Transport infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .98Inland transport, number of cars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100

Freight transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .102

11. Communications and information society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .104Fixed and cellular telephony . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .104PCs and the Internet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .106Enterprises and the information society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .108

12. External trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .110Total external trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .110External trade with the EU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112Trade balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .114Breakdown of exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .116

Breakdown of imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .118External trade by partner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .120

13. R&D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .122Expenditure on research and development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .122

14. Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .124Greenhouse gas emissions and municipal waste . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .124

Methodological notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .127


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Introduction

The enlargement process

The European Union grew to 25 Member States on 1 May 2004. The nextround of enlargement is expected in 2007 or 2008, when Bulgaria andRomania are likely to become members; Croatia, Turkey and the formerYugoslav Republic of Macedonia are Candidate countries and negotiationson EU membership were opened with Croatia and Turkey on 3 October2005.In order to join the European Union, Candidate countries need to fulfil arange of economic and political conditions that are known as the

'Copenhagen criteria'. Prospective Member States should be stabledemocracies, respect human rights, the rule of law, and the protection ofminorities, have a functioning market economy, as well as adopting thecommon rules, standards and policies that make up the body of EU law(often referred to as the 'acquis communautaire') and to have theadministrative capacity to implement this acquis. The European Unionassists Candidate countries in adapting their economic and politicalconditions to meet EU laws, and provides a range of financial assistance toimprove infrastructure and economic and political systems and to buildsustainable institutional capacities.The Stabilisation and Association process (SAP) is the EU's policyframework for the Western Balkans: namely Albania, Bosnia andHerzegovina, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Serbia andMontenegro, including Kosovo (as defined by the United Nations SecurityCouncil Resolution 1244). Croatia, which has been granted Candidatecountry status, remains part of this process, while also benefiting from pre-accession assistance. The EU encourages strategic, political andinstitutional reform in the Western Balkans. Engagement is at a number oflevels and the natural conclusion to the SAP assistance and co-operationprogrammes is full membership of the European Union.

Financial assistanceIn order to assist the Candidate countries that have applied to becomemembers of the EU, the European Union provides financial assistance tohelp carry out the reforms required for membership. The PHAREprogramme applies to the countries from Central and Eastern Europe, andprincipally involves institution building measures, as well as funding foreconomic and social cohesion measures. The ISPA programme deals withlarge-scale environmental projects and transport infrastructure investment.Finally, the SAPARD programme supports agricultural and ruraldevelopment.The CARDS programme (Community Assistance for Reconstruction,Development and Stabilisation) underpins the SAP and represents EUassistance to the Western Balkans. Initially the attention of the project wasfocused upon rebuilding infrastructure and fostering reconciliation.However, the programme has subsequently supported initiatives todevelop government institutions and legislation, supporting movestowards European norms and eventually harmonisation with EU acquis.Financial support is now directed at reinforcing democracy, the rule of law,human rights, civil society and the media, as well as the operation of a freemarket economy. In addition, assistance is offered to help generate

sustainable economic recovery, and promote social development andstructural reform. For the period 2000-2006, CARDS assistance to theWestern Balkans amounts to about EUR 5 billion.


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Monitoring and assessmentIn order to assess the progress being made by the Candidate countries andthe Western Balkans in terms of political and economic developments, theEuropean Commission submits regular reports on progress made. For theCandidate countries these follow an annual frequency, with the reportsbeing submitted to the Council. The country specific reports detail theprogress made by each country with respect to the criteria for membershipof the European Union, and also provide details relating to areas wherefurther follow-up and change may be required before the criteria foraccession are met.As with the Candidate countries, the Commission also produces annualSAP reports for the Western Balkans, which are used to measure progressand readiness to move closer to the European Union.

Eurostat's roleEurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, follows theprogress being made by the Candidate countries and the Western Balkanswithin the area of official statistics. Eurostat supports National StatisticalInstitutes (NSIs) in their efforts to align their data with European andinternational standards, by providing assistance to develop statistical

systems.The co-operation activities of Eurostat are divided according togeographical regions. Eurostat Unit E4 deals with statistical co-operationwith European and Mediterranean countries. Part of the work involves thecollection of data, and this forms the basis for the information includedwithin this publication.

Background to the project

As part of the co-operation with NSIs from the Candidate countries andthe Western Balkans, Eurostat Unit E4 launched in the spring of 2005 aregular data collection exercise. The project initially drew up a list ofapproximately 300 indicators that would be requested, covering a broadspectrum of statistics. Requests for data were sent in May 2005 and thefirst data collection exercise was completed in July 2005, when theinformation received was published on the Eurostat web-site (1). Eurostatplans to continue collecting data at regular intervals (approximately every

quarter), thus presenting the freshest information available to users.The procedure for collecting data involves sending a questionnaire to theNSIs. The data are requested are annual data and the vast majority ofindicators are collected for the whole of each territory (very few regionalbreakdowns). Note that all of the information presented is provided by theNSIs. External trade statistics are not collected as part of this project but arecollected separately by Eurostat's external trade statistics unit (Unit G3).Once the data sets for each country have been validated, the information

is transformed so that it may be published on Eurostat's web-site and inthis way made available to external users.

(1) Available at: http://europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat


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Guide to the statisticsData sourcesEU-25 data that are presented for the purpose of comparison has been

processed and calculated by Eurostat on the basis of information providedby the NSIs of the 25 existing Member States with or without estimates.The information was extracted from NewCronos, Eurostat's disseminationdatabase.For Bulgaria and Romania data were mainly extracted from NewCronos.For other Candidate countries and the Western Balkans, the vast majorityof the data were provided by the NSIs. As noted above, this informationwas collected by Eurostat through the exchange of a questionnaire with

each statistical office. In most cases the data request was sent to a centralco-ordinator who then forwarded it to individual departments responsiblefor particular statistical domains, as well as governmental agencies,national banks and ministries (when data are not compiled by the NSI). Inthe event that the data for a particular indicator were not provided toEurostat by the NSIs, the source of the information is footnoted under eachtable or graph.The only statistical theme where the data were processed directly by

Eurostat (without a request being made through the questionnaire) wasthat of external trade. For Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey, external tradedata were extracted from the Candidate country domain of Eurostat'sexternal trade database, COMEXT. For Albania, Croatia and the formerYugoslav Republic of Macedonia the data were taken from the WestBalkans domain of COMEXT. For Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia andMontenegro the data were extracted from the COMTRADE domain(source, the United Nations) of COMEXT. At the present time there are onlylimited external trade data available for Kosovo (as defined by the UnitedNations Security Council Resolution 1244) and this is taken directly frompublications of the statistical office of Kosovo.TimelinessThe data used in this publication were collected from the Candidatecountries and the Western Balkans during July and August 2005 andformed part of the second, quarterly data collection exercise of 2005. Thedatabase was finalised on 20 August 2005. The majority of indicators are

available up until reference year 2003 or 2004 (depending upon thestatistical theme and territory).External trade statistics for the EU-25, the Candidate countries and theWestern Balkans were processed during the first week of August 2005 andare generally available up to reference year 2004.The EU-25 totals that are provided for the purpose of comparison wereextracted from the NewCronos database during the second week ofAugust 2005. As with the data for the Candidate countries and theWestern Balkans, the information presented is generally available up untilreference years 2003 or 2004 (depending upon the indicator in question).


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Publication formatThe data presented are structured according to a number of statisticalthemes, following quite closely the structure of the data questionnaire thatwas sent to each of the NSIs. Each theme is identified by a chapter number.The standard structure of the publication is to arrange information for aparticular subject on a set of facing pages. Usually this takes the form of alarge table or graph on the first page, followed by a short text and a smalltable or graph on the second page. Where possible, related indicators wereselected for each set of facing pages.The supporting text is intended to guide the reader in the use of the data(either by providing definitions of the indicators presented, or by drawing

attention to peculiarities that should be considered when interpreting thedata). More detailed methodological notes are provided at the end of thepublication.Exchange ratesFor some indicators monetary values were requested from the Candidatecountries and the Western Balkans in terms of national currencydenominations. However, for the majority of the monetary indicators datawere requested in euro (EUR) terms. For a limited number of cases, theinformation provided was sent in an alternative denomination (usually innational currency or in US dollars). In these cases, Eurostat transformed theseries using official exchange rates (annual averages for the reference yearin question) so that data for all indicators foreseen in euro terms aredenominated in the same currency.Technically data that are presented in euro terms prior to 1999 should bedenominated in ECU. However, as the conversion rate was ECU 1 = EUR 1,for practical purposes the terms may be used interchangeably and thispublication denotes all such monetary series in euro (EUR).While the conversion to a common currency unit facilitates comparisons ofdata between countries, fluctuations in currency markets are partiallyresponsible for movements identified when looking at the evolution of aseries for an indicator that is denominated in euro. A table is provided withinformation on the annual average exchange rates between the euro andthe currencies of the Candidate counties and the Western Balkans (pleaserefer to page 72).Geographical coverageThe data presented for the EU-25 covers all 25 Member States throughoutthe period considered in each table and graph regardless of whether therewere 15 or 25 members in the reference year concerned (in other words,the data have been back-calculated with a stable coverage). Informationfor Germany is presented on a post-unification basis throughout the periodconsidered.

Non-availability The colon (:) is used in tables to represent data that are not available, eitherbecause they were not provided to Eurostat or because they wereconfidential. In the graphs (figures), missing information is footnoted.


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Abbreviations and unitsCAP Common agricultural policyCO2 Carbon dioxide

COICOP Classification of individual consumption by purposeCPI Consumer price indexECB European Central BankECU European currency unitESA95 European system of accounts (1995)FDI Foreign direct investment

GDP Gross domestic productGHG Greenhouse gasesGWh Gigawatt hour(s) = 1 000 MWh (megawatt hour(s)) =

106 kWh (a kilowatt hour is a unit of energy equivalentto one kilowatt of power expended for one hour of time

Heads Unit of measure for counting the number of animalsHectare Unit of area equal to 100 ares or 10 000 square metres

IMF International Monetary FundIPI Industrial production indexISCED International standard classification of education (UN

classification)Kg Kilogram (1 000 grams), a unit of massKm Kilometre (1 000 metres), a unit of distanceKm Square kilometre, a unit of areaLFS Labour force surveyM1 Narrowest category of the money supply, includes

physical money (coins & currency); used as a measure-ment to quantify the amount of money in circulation

M2 A broader measure of money supply that includes M1,time-related deposits, savings deposits, and non-institutional money-market funds

NACE Statistical classification of economic activities in theEuropean Community

n.e.c. Not elsewhere classifiedNPISH Non-profit institutions serving householdsOECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and

DevelopmentPPI Producer price index (output price index)SDR Special drawing rightsSITC Standard international trade classificationTonne 1 tonne = 1 000 kgTOE Tonne of oil equivalent = 42 GJ (net calorific value)Tonne-km Unit of measure of goods transported which represents

the transport of one tonne over one kilometre

Tonne-km/GDP See above for definition of tonne-km; this indicatoradjusts tonne-km by GDP and provides a measure oftransport intensity

UAA Utilised agricultural areaUN United Nations


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CountriesEU-25 25 Member States of the European UnionEUR-12 Euro-zone of 12 members

BG BulgariaHR CroatiaRO RomaniaTR TurkeyAL AlbaniaBA Bosnia and Herzegovina

MK(2)

the former Yugoslav Republic of MacedoniaCS Serbia and Montenegro XK (3) Kosovo (3)

CurrencyEUR EuroBGN New Bulgarian levHRK Croatian kunaROL Romanian leuTRY New Turkish liraALL Albanian lekBAM Convertible mark (Bosnia and Herzegovina)MKD Denar (the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia)CSD Serbian dinar

Symbols% percentage: not available~ not applicable

(2) Provisional code which does not prejudge in any way the definitive

nomenclature for this country (which will be agreed following the conclusion of negotiations currently taking place on this subject at the United Nations).(3) IMPORTANT NOTE: Kosovo is under international administration in line withUnited Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1244 of 10 June 1999;

XK is an unofficial code (which does not prejudge in any way the definitivenomenclature).


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1 1 7 . 9

1 1 8 . 2

1 1 8 . 5

1 1 8 . 8

1 1 9 . 1

1 1 9 . 3

1 1 9 . 8

:

:

:

B u

l g a r

i a ( 7 )

7 5 . 5

7 5 . 1

7 4 . 6

7 4 . 2

7 3 . 8

7 3 . 4

7 1 . 1

7 0 . 7

7 0 . 3

6 9 . 9

C r o a t

i a

8 2 . 6

7 9 . 5

8 0 . 9

7 9 . 6

8 0 . 5

7 8 . 3

7 8 . 5

7 8 . 6

7 8 . 5

7 8 . 5

R o m a n

i a

9 5 . 1

9 4 . 8

9 4 . 6

9 4 . 4

9 4 . 2

9 4 . 1

9 4 . 0

9 1 . 5

9 1 . 2

9 0 . 9

T u r k e y

( 8 )

8 0 . 0

8 2 . 0

8 3 . 0

8 5 . 0

8 6 . 0

8 8 . 0

8 9 . 0

9 0 . 0

9 1 . 0

9 2 . 0

A l b a n

i a ( 9 )

1 0 5 . 6

1 0 6 . 5

1 0 7 . 4

1 0 6 . 5

1 0 6 . 1

1 0 6 . 4

1 0 6 . 6

1 0 7 . 3

1 0 7 . 9

1 0 8 . 5

B o s n

i a a n

d H e r z e g o v

i n a

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

T h e

f o r m e r

Y u g o s l a v

R e p u

b l i c o

f M a c e d o n

i a

7 6 . 1

7 6 . 8

7 7 . 4

7 7 . 9

7 8 . 3

7 8 . 6

7 9 . 0

7 9 . 2

7 8 . 7

:

S e r b

i a a n

d M o n

t e n e g r o

9 2 . 4

9 2 . 3

9 2 . 2

9 2 . 0

9 1 . 7

9 1 . 4

9 1 . 2

8 8 . 9

8 9 . 3

8 9 . 2

K o s o v o

1 9 4 . 3

1 9 7 . 8

2 0 0 . 9

2 0 4 . 6

2 0 8 . 1

2 1 1 . 8

2 1 5 . 6

2 1 9 . 5

2 2 3 . 3

2 2 7 . 4

T o t a l p o p u

l a t i o n

( t h o u s a n

d s )

P o p u

l a t i o n d e n s i

t y ( i n

h a b

i t a n

t s p e r

k m

)

P O P U L A T I O N A N D P O P U L A T I O N D E N S I T Y

D e m o g r a p

h y


14/142

13

F i g u r e

1 . 1 : N u m

b e r o f w o m e n

i n t h e p o p u l a t

i o n

f o r e a c h

1 0 0 m e n

i n t h e

p o p u

l a t i o n ,

2 0 0 4 ( u n i

t s ) ( 1 )

( 1 ) B o s n

i a a n

d H e r z e g o

v i n a a n

d K o s o v o ,

n o

t a v a

i l a b l e

. ( 2 ) 2 0 0 0

. ( 3 ) A s o

f 1 J a n u a r y .

( 4 ) M i d

- y e a r p o p u

l a t i o n

e s t i m a

t e s .

9 5 1 0 0

1 0 5

1 1 0

E U - 2

5 ( 2 )

B G ( 3 )

H R

R O

T R ( 4 )

A L ( 3 )

B A

M K

C S

X K

T h e p o p u

l a t i o n o f

t h e

E U - 2

5 w a s

j u s t o v e r

4 5 0 m

i l l i o n p e r s o n s

i n 2 0 0 0

. T h e

l a r g e s

t o f

t h e

C a n d

i d a t e c o u n

t r i e s ,

i n t e r m s o f

i n h a b i t a n t s w a s

T u r k e y ,

w i t h a

p o p u

l a t i o n o f m o r e

t h a n

7 0 m

i l l i o n p e r s o n s . R

o m a n

i a ( a l m o s

t 2 2 m

i l l i o n p e r s o n s )

w a s

t h e o n

l y o t

h e r t e r r

i t o r y

i n t h e

C a n

d i d a t e c o u n

t r i e s o r

t h e W e s

t e r n

B a l k a n s

w i t h m o r e

t h a n

1 0 m

i l l i o n

i n h a b i t a n t s .

P o p u

l a t i o n

d e n s

i t y i s g e n e r a

l l y h i g h e r

i n t h e

E U - 2

5 t h a n

i n

t h e

C a n

d i d a t e

c o u n

t r i e s o r

t h e

W e s

t e r n

B a l k a n s .

N o t e

t h a t

t h e s e

f i g u r e s

d o

n o t p r o v

i d e a n y

i n f o r m a t

i o n o n

h o w c o n c e n

t r a t e d

t h e p o p u

l a t i o n

i s w

i t h i n

u r b a n a r e a s , o r

w h e t h e r

i t i s w

i d e l y s p r e a d a c r o s s m o r e r u r a l

l a n d .

W i t h i n E u r o p e ,

a s o m e w

h a t h i g h e r p r o p o r

t i o n o f n e w

b o r n b a b

i e s

t e n d

t o b e

b o y s c o m p a r e

d w i t h

g i r l s , h

o w e v e r , w

o m e n

t e n d

t o h a v e a

h i g h e r

l i f e e x p e c t a n c y

t h a n m e n .

A s a r e s u l

t , t h e r e a r e g e n e r a

l l y m o r e w o m e n

t h a n m e n

i n t h e

p o p u

l a t i o n o f a n y g i v e n

t e r r

i t o r y ,

a l t h o u g

h T u r k e y a n

d t h e f o r m e r

Y u g o s l a v

R e p u

b l i c o f

M a c e d o n i a w e r e e x c e p t

i o n s t o

t h i s r u

l e .

D e m o g r a p

h y


15/142

( 1 ) A s o

f 1 J a n u a r y . ( 2

) 1 9 9 6

- 2 0 0 1

, a s o

f 3 0 J u n e .

( 3 ) M i d

- y e a r p o p u

l a t i o n e s

t i m a

t e s .

( 4 ) A s o

f 1 J a n u a r y ; 1

9 9 6

- 2 0 0 0

, p o p u

l a t i o n w

a s r e v i s e

d b a s e

d o n

t h e

1 9 8 9 a n

d 2 0 0 1 p o p u


( 5 ) A s o

f 3 0 J u n e .

114

T a b l e

1 . 2 : P o p u

l a t i o n g r o w

t h ( % c h a n g e

c o m p a r e

d w

i t h t h e p r e v

i o u s y e a r

) 1 9 9 6

1 9 9 7

1 9 9 8

1 9 9 9

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2

2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4

E U - 2

5

0 . 2

0 . 2

0 . 2

0 . 2

0 . 2

:

:

:

:

B u

l g a r

i a ( 1 )

- 0 . 5

- 0 . 5

- 0 . 7

- 0 . 6

- 0 . 5

- 0 . 5

- 3 . 2

- 0 . 6

- 0 . 6

C r o a t

i a ( 2 )

- 3 . 7

1 . 7

- 1 . 6

1 . 2

- 2 . 8

0 . 3

0 . 1

0 . 0

- 0 . 1

R o m a n

i a

- 0 . 3

- 0 . 3

- 0 . 2

- 0 . 2

- 0 . 1

- 0 . 2

- 2 . 7

- 0 . 3

- 0 . 3

T u r k e y

( 3 )

1 . 9

1 . 8

1 . 8

1 . 7

1 . 6

1 . 4

1 . 4

1 . 3

1 . 3

A l b a n

i a ( 4 )

0 . 9

0 . 8

- 0 . 9

- 0 . 4

0 . 3

0 . 2

0 . 7

0 . 6

0 . 5

B o s n

i a a n

d H e r z e g o v i n a

( 5 )

:

:

:

:

1 . 5

0 . 4

0 . 8

0 . 1

:

T h e

f o r m e r

Y u g o s l a v

R e p u

b l i c o

f M a c e d o n

i a

0 . 9

1 . 1

0 . 5

0 . 5

0 . 4

0 . 4

- 0 . 7

0 . 3

0 . 2

S e r b

i a a n

d M o n

t e n e g r o

( 5 )

- 0 . 1

- 0 . 2

- 0 . 2

- 0 . 3

- 0 . 4

- 0 . 2

- 2 . 5

0 . 5

- 0 . 1

K o s o v o

( 5 )

1 . 8

1 . 6

1 . 8

1 . 8

1 . 8

1 . 8

1 . 8

1 . 8

1 . 8

P O P U L A T I O N

G R O W T H

D e m o g r a p

h y


16/142

15

F i g u r e

1 . 2 : P o p u

l a t i o n , a

v e r a g e a n n u a l g r o w

t h r a

t e s

( % ) ( 1 )

( 1 ) B o s n

i a a n

d H e r z e g o

v i n a ,

n o

t a v a

i l a b l e ;

E U - 2 5

, n o

t a v a

i l a b l e f o r

2 0 0 0

- 2 0 0 4

.

( 2 ) A s o

f 1 J a n u a r y .

( 3 ) 1 9 9 6

- 2 0 0 1

, a s o

f 3 0 J u n e .

( 4 ) M i d

- y e a r p o p u l a

t i o n e s

t i m a

t e s .

( 5 ) A s o

f 1 J a n u a r y ;

1 9 9 6

- 2 0 0 0

, p o p u


d b a s e

d o n

t h e

1 9 8 9 a n

d 2 0 0 1

p o p u


( 6 ) A s o

f 3 0 J u n e .

- 2 - 1 0 1 2

E U - 2

5

B G ( 2 ) H R ( 3 )

R O

T R ( 4 )

A L ( 5 )

B A ( 6 )

M K

C S ( 6 )

X K ( 6 )

1 9 9 5 - 1

9 9 9

2 0 0 0 - 2

0 0 4

T h e r e a r e a n u m

b e r o f

f a c t o r s

t h a t m a y

e x p l a i n c h a n g e s

i n p o p u

l a t i o n

l e v e

l s ,

i n c l u d

i n g

t h e

b i r t h r a

t e ,

t h e

d e a t

h r a

t e a n

d , p e r h a p s m o s

t i m p o r t a n

t l y i n t h e

c o n t e x

t o f m a n y

C a n d

i d a t e c o u n

t r i e s a n d

t h e

W e s

t e r n

B a l k a n s , m

i g r a

t i o n r a

t e s .

W i t h i n t h e

E U - 2

5 , t h e r e

l a t i v e l y

l o w

l e v e

l o f b i r t

h r a

t e s m a y r e s u

l t i n s i g n

i f i c a n t

p o p u

l a t i o n r e

d u c t i o n s

t h r o u g

h t o 2 0 5 0 ( E u r o s

t a t d e m o g r a p h

i c p r o j e c

t i o n s

) . I f

c u r r e n

t p o p u

l a t i o n

l e v e

l s a r e

t o b e m a i n t a

i n e d , t

h e n m o s

t c o m m e n

t a t o r s

b e l i e v e

t h a t

t h e r e w

i l l h

a v e

t o b e c o n s

i d e r a b

l e

i m m

i g r a

t i o n

i n t o t h e a f

f e c t e d a r e a s .

O t h e r s a r g u e

t h a t a r e

d u c t

i o n

i n p o p u

l a t i o n

l e v e

l s m

i g h t b e a g o o

d t h i n g m a k

i n g

E u r o p e a m o r e s u s t a i n a

b l e p l a c e

t o l i v e .

D e m o g r a p

h y


17/142

( 1 ) E U

- 2 5

, A l b a n

i a , B

o s n

i a a n

d H e r z e g o v i n a a n

d K o s o v o ,

n o

t a v a

i l a b l e

. ( 2 ) A s o

f 1 J a n u a r y .

( 3 ) M i d

- y e a r p o p u

l a t i o n e s

t i m a

t e s .

( 4 ) 1 9 9 5

- 2 0 0 3

.

116

F i g u r e

1 . 3 : R e l a t i v e

c h a n g e

i n t h e p o p u

l a t i o n

b e t w e e n

1 9 9 5 a n

d 2 0 0 4 ( p e r c e n t a g e p o

i n t s ) ( 1 )

- 6 - 4 - 2 0 2 4 6

B G ( 2 )

H R

R O

T R ( 3 )

A L

B A

M K

C S ( 4 )

X K

A g e d

< 1 5

A g e

d 1 5 - 6 4

A g e

d 6 5 +

P O P U L A T I O N G R O W T H A N D P O P U L A T I O N B R E A K D O W

N B Y A G E G R O U P

D e m o g r a p

h y


18/142

17

F i g u r e

1 . 4 : B r e a k

d o w n o f p o p u

l a t i o n

b y a g e g r o u p ,

2 0 0 4 ( % o f

t o t a l ) ( 1 )

( 1 ) K o s o v o ,

n o

t a v a

i l a b l e

. ( 2 ) 2 0 0 0

. ( 3 ) A s o

f 1 J a n u a r y .

( 4 ) M i d

- y e a r p o p u

l a t i o n

e s t i m a

t e s .

( 5 ) 2 0 0 2

. ( 6 ) 2 0 0 3

.

0 % 2 5 %

5 0 %

7 5 %

1 0 0 %

E U - 2

5 ( 2 )

B G ( 3 )

H R

R O

T R ( 4 )

A L

B A ( 5 )

M K

C S ( 6 )

X K

A g e d

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