plant genetic resources and climate change
DESCRIPTION
Presentation made on the 15th November 2010 in New Delhi, India in the office of NBPGR by Andy Jarvis.TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Plant genetic resource: Threats and opportunities arising from climate change
Andy Jarvis, Julián Ramírez, Nora Castañeda, Nigel Maxted, Robert Hijmans and Jacob Van Etten
© Neil Palmer (CIAT)
![Page 2: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Content
• Some background on climate change and what it means for agriculture
• Focus on crop wild relatives: threats and opportunities
• The CGIAR-ESSP lead Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security global program of research
• Concluding remarks
![Page 3: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Climate change is not new…but is accelerating
![Page 4: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Global Climate Models (GCMs)
• 21 global climate models in the world, based on atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a touch of astrology
• Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into the future
• Run using different emissions scenarios
![Page 5: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
![Page 6: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Temperatures rise….
![Page 8: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Changes in rainfall…
![Page 9: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The Impacts on Crop Suitability
![Page 10: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Empirical evidence of serious problems in the US
•In many cases, roughly 6-10% yield loss per degree
•For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposed to temperatures >30˚C
Schlenker and Roberts 2009 PNAS
![Page 11: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Average change in suitability for all crops in 2050s
![Page 12: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Impacts of climate change to food security
• Lobell et al. looked at impacts of climate change on food security
• Cassava clearly highlighted as suffering least among many staples
• Particular opportunities as an alternative crop for southern Africa
![Page 13: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Crop wild relatives - The foundation of agriculture
![Page 14: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Wild relatives of crops• Include both progenitor species and closely related species of cultivated
crops• Faba beans – 0 wild relatives• Potato – 172 wild relative species• Increasingly useful in breeding, especially for biotic resistance
![Page 15: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Photos from Jose Valls, CENARGEN
![Page 16: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Why conserve CWR diversity?
• Use: 39% pest resistance; 17% abiotic stress; 13% yield increase
• Citations: 2% <1970; 13% 1970s; 15% 1980s; 32% 1990s; 38% >1999
Use!!
234 papers cited
Maxted and Kell, 2009
![Page 17: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Florunner, with no root-knot nematode resistance
COAN, with population density of root-knot nematodes >90% less than in Florunner
Wild relative species
A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions
A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions
A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions
![Page 18: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Grassy stunt virus in riceResistance from Oryza nivara genes(Barclay 2004)
Potato late blightResistance from Solanum demissun and S. stoloniferumNational potato council (2003)
![Page 19: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Nevo and Chen 2010
Adaptation to abiotic stress
![Page 20: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Quality traits
![Page 21: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Post harvest deterioration - Cassava
Courtesy of Emmanuel Okogbenin
![Page 22: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
• Value as wild plant species in natural ecosystems
• Value of CWR as actual or potential gene donors:– US$340 million a year in US (Prescott-Allen and
Prescott Allen, 1986)– $20 billion toward increased crop yields per
year in the United States and $115 billion worldwide (Pimentel et al., 1997)
– US$10 billion annually in global wholesale farm values (Phillips and Meilleur, 1998)
Why conserve CWR Diversity?
• Individual examples of use:– Lycopersicon chmielewskii sweetening tomato US $ 5-8million per year
(Iltis, 1988)– Various CWR of wheat provide disease resistance to wheat and US
benefits by US $ 50m per year (Witt, 1985)
Courtesy of Nigel Maxted
![Page 23: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Threats
![Page 24: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Impact of climate change on CWR• Assessment of shifts in distribution
range under climate change• Wild potatoes• Wild African Vigna• Wild peanuts
![Page 25: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
![Page 26: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Latitudinal and Elevational Shifts
Peanuts• Shift south and upwards
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35
Latitude
Sp
ecie
s R
ich
nes
s /
km2
Current Richness
Future Richness (unlimited dispersal)
Future Richness (no dispersal)
A - Peanut
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
-200 300 800 1300 1800 2300
Elevation
Sp
ecie
s R
ich
nes
s /
km2
Current Richness
Future Richness (unlimited dispersal)
Future Richness (no dispersal)
B - Peanut
![Page 27: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Latitudinal and Elevational Shifts
Potatoes• Shift upwards
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40
Latitude
Sp
ecie
s R
ich
nes
s /
km2
Current Richness
Future Richness (unlimited dispersal)
Future Richness (no dispersal)
C - Potato
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500
Elevation (m)
Sp
ecie
s R
ich
nes
s /
km2
Current Richness
Future Richness (unlimited dispersal)
Future Richness (no dispersal)
D - Potato
![Page 28: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Summary Impacts
• 16-22% (depending on migration scenario) of these species predicted to go extinct
• Most species losing over 50% of their range size• Wild peanuts were the most affected group, with 24
to 31 of 51 species projected to go extinct • For wild potato, 7 to 13 of 108 species were
predicted to go extinct
![Page 29: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Florunner, with no root-knot nematode resistance
COAN, with population density of root-knot nematodes >90% less than in Florunner
Wild relative species
A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions
A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions
A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions
![Page 30: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
SpeciesChange in area
of distribution (%)Predicted state
in 2055
batizocoi -100 Extinctcardenasii -100 Extinctcorrentina -100 Extinctdecora -100 Extinctdiogoi -100 Extinctduranensis -91 Threatenedglandulifera -17 Stablehelodes -100 Extincthoehnii -100 Extinctkempff-mercadoi -69 Near-Threatenedkuhlmannii -100 Extinctmagna -100 Extinctmicrosperma -100 Extinctpalustris -100 Extinctpraecox -100 Extinctstenosperma -86 Threatenedvillosa -51 Near-Threatened
Impact of Climate Change – Wild Peanuts
![Page 31: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
More immediate threats….
![Page 32: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Adapted from Nature, v.466, p.554-556, 2010
Concentration of the natural distribution on the area of most intensive cattle-raising and crop production activity in Brazil has not been a serious problem, in the past, for preservation of local wild species of Arachis, but the advance of the modern, mechanized agriculture, in the last few decades, and specially the use of herbicides have imposed severe pressure on wild populations. This is also true for Eastern Bolivia, where many species of section Arachis occur.
Slide provided by Jose Valls, CENARGEN
![Page 33: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Slide provided by Jose Valls, CENARGEN
![Page 34: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
How well conserved are crop wild relatives?
Gap Analysis
© Neil Palmer (CIAT)
![Page 35: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Why Gap Analysis?
• Tool to assess crop and crop wild relative genetic and geographical diversity
• Allows detecting incomplete species collections as well as defining which species should be collected and where these collections should be focused
• Assesses the current extent at which the ex situ conservation system is correctly holding the genetic diversity of a particular genepool
![Page 36: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
To know what you don’t have, you first need to know what you do have
![Page 37: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
The visible global system
![Page 38: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
The Gap Analysis process
Proxy for:
• Range of traits
Proxy for:
• Diversity
• Possibly biotic traits
Proxy for:
• Abiotic traits
• Identifying gaps
![Page 39: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
An example in Phaseolus
![Page 40: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Herbarium versus germplasm: Geographic
![Page 41: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Herbarium versus germplasm: Taxon
![Page 42: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Conserved ex situ richness versus potential
![Page 43: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Priorities: Geographic and taxonomic
![Page 44: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Gap Analysis
http
://g
isw
eb.c
iat.
cgia
r.or
g/G
apA
naly
sis/
![Page 45: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Taxon-level and genepool level priorities
![Page 46: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Wild Vigna collecting priorities
• Spatial analysis on current conserved materials
• *Gaps* in current collections
• Definition and prioritisation of collecting areas
• 8 100x100km cells to complete collections of 23 wild Vigna priority species
![Page 47: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Exploration and ex-situ conservation of Capsicum flexuosum
• Uncommon species of wild chilli, found in Paraguay and Argentina
• 18 known registers of the plant
• 2 germplasm accessions conserved in the USDA
• Genetically unknown
• Found in an area undergoing high levels of habitat loss
![Page 48: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Capsicum flexuosum - FloraMap
![Page 49: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Habitat: Forest Margins
![Page 50: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Road Access
![Page 51: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Priority Areas for Collection
![Page 52: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Results
• 6 new collections of C. flexuosum
• 160 seeds conserved ex situ
• One plant found with few seeds, where previous herbarium record
• First accession conserved ex situ 1998
2001
2002
• 1 plant found, with few seeds
Using GIS model
![Page 53: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security: A major new global
program to rise to the challenge
![Page 54: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Climate Variability and Change
ImprovedEnvironmental
Benefits
ImprovedLivelihoods
ImprovedFood Security
Current agricultural,NRM & food systems
Adapted agricultural,NRM & food systems
Trade-offs and synergies
4. Diagnosis and vulnerability assessment for making strategic choices
1. Adaptation for confronting climate risk
2. Adaptation for progressive climate change
3. Mitigation for reducing GHG emissions, enhancing carbon-storage and reducing poverty
![Page 55: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Theme Objective
1. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change
1.1 Adapted farming systems to changing climate conditions 1.2 Breeding strategies for future climatic conditions1.3 Species and genetic diversity for climate change
Major research questions to be addressed:
1. What priority genepools for climate change adaptation are threatened, and how can they be conserved to ensure their continuing availability?
2. How do cultural practices exploit this diversity and how can farmers’ knowledge be used to help identify landraces and crop varieties suited for specific climatic conditions?
3. How can access to crop diversity local farmers be facilitated through enhanced seed systems or other mechanisms?
4. How does on farm crop diversity in production systems contribute to maintaining productivity in the face of progressive climate change and increased variability in climate?
![Page 56: Plant genetic resources and climate change](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022070315/554e94aeb4c905fc368b4e9b/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Conclusions
• Major challenges from climate change: can agriculture stand up to a 2 degree warmer world?
• Plant genetic resources threatened by climate change, but also a key element of the solution
• Crop wild relative use on the increase, but poorly conserved ex situ and under threat in situ
• Need for a major collecting effort to fill gaps, and explore novel genetic approaches to further stimulate their use