PLANETARY BOUNDARIES the urgent need for societal transformations

PLANETARY BOUNDARIES the urgent need for societal transformations

Planetary and societal risks

Why we need planetary stewardship

Professor Sybil SeitzingerExecutive Director

International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme

Antarctic ice core

Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.

Carbon dioxide

MethaneModern humans appear in Africa

Carbondioxide

Temperature

Methane

Antarctic ice core

Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.

Carbondioxide

Methane

Beyond natural boundaries

Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland)And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004

Human Development andGlacial-Interglacial Cycling

Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) and S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004

First migration of fully modern

humans out of Africa

Modern humansarrive in

Australia

Migrations of fully modern humans from South Asia to Europe

Beginningof agriculture

Great Europeancivilizations:

Greek, Roman

The Holocene

IGBP Climate-change indexGlobal carbon dioxide Arctic sea-ice minimum

Global surface temperature Global sea level

IGBP Climate-change index

The Great Acceleration – a planet under pressure

Population

US Bureau of the Census (2000) International databaseIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Total real GDP

Nordhaus (1997) The economics of new goods. University of Chicago PressIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Foreign direct investment

World Bank (2002) data and statisticsIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Damming of rivers

World Commission on Dams (2000)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Water use

Shiklomanov (1990) Global Water ResourcesIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Fertiliser consumption

International Fertilizer Industry Association (2002)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Urban population

The State of the World’s Cities (2001)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Paper consumption

Pulp and paper international (1993)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Motor vehicles

Global environmental outlook (2000)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Telephones

Canning (2001) A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950-95 World BankIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

International tourism

World Tourism Organization (2001) Tourism industry trendsIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Shrimp farm production

IAnnual shrimp production as a proxy for coastal zone alteration. Sources: WRI (2003) A guide to world resources, 2002-2004

IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Domesticated land

Amount of land converted to pasture and cropland. Source: Klein Goldewijk and Battjes (1997) National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). Bilthoven, Netherlands

IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Planetary response

Atmospheric CO2 concentration

Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Atmospheric N2O concentration

Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Atmospheric CH4 concentration

Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Northern hemisphere average surface temperature

Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Ozone depletion

percentage total column ozone loss over Antarctica, using the average annual total column ozone, 330, as a base. Image: J.D. Shanklin, British Antarctic Survey

IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Tropical rainforest and woodland loss

Loss of tropical rainforest and woodland, as estimated for tropical Africa, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia. Sources: Richards (1990) In: The Earth as transformed by human action, Cambridge

University Press IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Natural climatic disasters

Decadal frequency of great floods (one-in-100-year events) after 1860 for basins larger than 200 000 km2 with observations that span at least 30 years. Source: Milly et al. (2002) Nature 415:514-517 IGBP synthesis:

Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Fisheries exploitation

Percentage of global fisheries either fully exploited, overfished or collapsed. Source: FAOSTAT (2002) Statistical databases

IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Coastal zone nitrogen flux

Model-calculated partitioning of the human-induced nitrogen perturbation fluxes in the global coastal margin for the period since 1850. Source: Mackenzie et al. (2002) Chem. Geology 190:13-32

IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Biodiversity loss

Mathematically calculated rate of extinction. Source: Wilson (1992) The diversity of life, the Penguin Press.IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

Great acceleration

IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

“Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss.”

Ban Ki-Moon

A resilient Earth System

Reduced resilience – our precarious predicament

Photograph by Annie Griffiths BeltNational Geographic, February 2008 – © National Geographic Society, All rights reserved.

Where are the thresholds in the Earth system?

Climate Change

Ocean Acidification

Ozone Depletion

Global Freshwater Use

Rate of Biodiversity Loss

Phosphorus

Atmospheric Aerosol Loading

Land System Change

Chemical Pollution

Nitrogen

Rockström et al. 2009

A safe operating space for humanity

2011 Global Risks ReportWorld Economic Forum

“The world is in no position to face major, new shocks.”

Planetary stewardship- a safe operating space for humanity

Planetary Stewardship2020 2040 20502030

New knowledge toward solutionsLondon, 26-29 March 2012

Planetary and societal risks

Why we need planetary stewardship

Professor Sybil SeitzingerExecutive Director

International Geosphere-Biosphere Programmewww.igbp.net

Sybil.seitzinger@igbp.kva.se