PHOTOVOLTAICS:

A TECHNOLOGY FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW

Reinhold Buttgereit

Secretary General

EWEA 2012

Copenhagen, EWEA 2012

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Average share of PV in electricity generation

2 %4 %

Average

Peak power

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Evolution of new capacities in EU (2010)

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Evolution of new capacities in EU (2011)

Source: EPIA / EWEA

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Electricity production from 2011 installations

New production (RES in Green)Lost production

Source: EPIA analysis

PV electricity represented in 2011 around 30% of electricity from new production sources.

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Evolution of cumulative PV capacity in Europe

51.3 GW

RoE contains all markets with less than 1 GW installed. France and Belgium left RoE in 2011.

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Scenarios for PV electricity in Europe

• Extrapolation of EPIA market forecasts compared to EPIA scenarios for 2020.

Baseline Scenario 4 %

Accelerated Growth Scenario 6 %

Paradigm Shift scenario 12 %

130 GW 200 GW 390 GW

8,9 GW 16,7 GW 37,8 GW

8 %

4 %

2.6 %

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Levelised Cost of PV Electricity

• 5 countries in Europe, 2011 Prices, 4 market segments: residential rooftop (3 kW), commercial rooftop (100 kW), industrial rooftop (500 kW), utility-scale ground-mounted (2.5 MW)

- 50 % • LCOE in Europe:

• 0,12 EUR • Italy, ground

mounted

• 0,26 EUR• UK, residential

PV’s generation cost could go down by 50% during this decade

European PV LCOE range projection 2010-2020

Lowest LCOE in 2012: 0,12 Eur / kWh (Ground mounted – Italy)

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Dynamic Grid Parity in rooftop PV systems

Market segment Capacity France Germany Italy Spain UK

Residential 3 kW 2016 2017 2015 2017 2019

Commercial 100 kW 2018 2017 2013 2014 2017

Industrial 500 kW 2019 2019 2014 2017 2019

Based on the average irradiance per country.

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Grid and electricity markets

Grid Integration

Electricty market integration

Transmission grids

integration

Distribution grids integration

Storage and Demand responseNew electricity market organisationFinancing of grid operatorsPV impacts first and especially the distribution grids, then only the transmission grids

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Long term PV development

World:20 % in 2060

EU: 27,5 % in 2050(RES: 100%)

EU: 10-13 % in 2030(RES: 55-69%)

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Conclusion

• PV is developing everywhere, faster than expected

• Prices will continue to go down on the mid and long term

• Grid and electricity market integration becomes a priority

• We don’t want caps, and we need support schemes until competitiveness with conventional energies is achieved.

• We need policy support anyway, especially priority access

• Current challenges: market adjustment, global competition and the effects of the European financial crisis.

www.epia.org