Phenology and plant / insect

interactions in a changing climate

Dan Herms

Department of Entomology

The Ohio State University

Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center

Wooster, OH

herms.2@osu.edu

Climate change and phenology:

• Phenological change as evidence of global warming.

• Global warming and the distribution of species.

• Changes in insect life cycles: physiological and evolutionary.

• Phenological asynchrony and decoupling of species

interactions.

• Atmospheric CO2, plant quality, and herbivores.

Source: NASA Goddard

Institute for Space Studies

The 10 warmest years since 1000 AD:

1. 2010, 2005

3. 2009

4. 1998

5. 2007

6. 2002

7. 2006

8. 2003

9. 2004

10. 2001

Consilience: convergence of evidence

3 independent surface temperature records:

NASA, NOAA, Hadley Climate Research Unit

Corroborated by:

• 2 satellite records of upper and lower troposphere

• Weather balloons

• Proxy reconstructions (e.g. tree rings, boreholes, ice cores,

glaciers, coral, etc.)

• Changes in Earth’s physical and biological systems.

NOAA climate indicators: 30 year trends

1. Increasing air temperature in lower atmosphere.

2. Increasing temperature over land.

3. Increasing temperature over oceans.

4. Increasing sea-surface temperature.

5. Increasing ocean heat content.

6. Increasing humidity.

7. Increasing sea level.

8. Decreasing glacier cover.

9. Decreasing sea ice cover.

10. Decreasing snow cover.

NOAA National Climatic Data Center, 2010

There is no relationship between solar

activity and recent warming.

Powerful convergence of evidence shows

greenhouse gasses to be the primary cause

Atmospheric CO2 has increased from 280 ppm

in 1860 to 396 ppm today

Alternative hypotheses considered and rejected

by National Academy of Sciences:

• Solar activity: atmosphere is warming from bottom

up, not top down.

• Ocean vents: ocean is warming from surface down,

not bottom up.

• Earth’s orbit / rotation: slight cooling effect.

• Volcanic activity: Pinatubo eruption had short-term

(2-3 yr) cooling effect.

• Air pollution: sulfate aerosols have cooling effect

(global dimming).

Objectives:

Global warming and the distribution of species.

Global warming and phenology:

• Phenological change as evidence of global warming.

• Modeling changes in phenology of agricultural pests.

Global warming and ecological disruption.

• Decoupling of species interactions.

• Effects on population dynamics.

Atmospheric CO2, plant quality, and herbivores.

Signs of warming are everywhere

Parmesan & Yohe. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate

change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37-42.

Glaciers are melting world-wide

Toboggan Glacier

http

://ww

w.c

oa

stto

co

asta

m.c

om

/tima

ge

s/p

ag

e/g

lacie

r_b

ay01

290

5.jp

g

Glacier Bay 1909

2000

Oerlemans, J. 2005. Extracting a climate signal from 169 glacier

records. Science 308:675-677.

Glacier National Park:

Number of glaciers in 1910 when park formed: 150

Number of glaciers today: 25

http://www.globalwarmingart.com

Sea level is rising:

20 cm in the last

century

R.A. Rhohde, www.globalwarmingart.com

Recent sea-level contributions of the Antarctic and

Greenland ice sheets (2007) Science 315:1529-1532.

http://www.globalwarmingart.com

http://discoverbiodiversity.com/LarisaDeSantis.html

Global-scale coral bleaching

Hoegh-Guldberg, O. 1999. Climate change, coral bleaching and the

future of the world's coral reefs. Marine and Freshwater Research

50:839–866.

Rachel Donnelly

http://www.lizasreef.com

www.unep-wcmc.org

PNAS (2006) 103:11217-11222

Phenology: The study of

recurring biological events.

Phenology: the foundational science of

human existence

Serpent Mound

Fort Ancient

http://media-2.web.britannica.com/

University of Cincinnati

Climate change and phenology

at Sand County, WI

Bradley et al. 1999. Phenological changes reflect climate change

in Wisconsin. PNAS 96:9701-9704.

“The mean of regressions for the 55 phenophases

studied was -0.12 day / yr, an overall increase in

phenological earliness…”

Climate change and phenology at Walden Pond

Miller-Rushing and Primack. 2008. Global warming and

flowering times in Thoreau’s Concord: a community perspective.

Ecology 89:332-341.

“We determined that plants bloomed seven days

earlier on average than they did in Thoreau’s times.”

Lilac bloom as a phenological indicator

of continental-scale climate change.

OARDC is part of the National Phenology Network

that has documented earlier springs in NA

Reading, C. J. 2003. The effects of variation in climatic temperature

(1980-2001) on breeding activity and tadpole stage duration in the

common toad, Bufo bufo. Sci. Tot. Environ. 310, 231-236.

Toad phenology

Bufo bufo in southern England, 1980-2001.

Adult arrival at pond advanced by 11 days / 1°C

of warming.

Bird phenology: migration

Long-distance migrants have advanced their spring

arrival in Scandinavia more than short-distance

migrants.

Jonzén et al. 2006. Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in

long-distance migratory birds. Science 312:1959-1961

Bird phenology: breeding

Between 1971 and 1995 the laying date for many species

of British birds has shifted earlier by an average of 9 days.

(Nature 388: 526)

Breeding date of North American

common murre advanced by 24

days / decade

Black vine weevil now emerging 2-3 weeks earlier

than in 1970

D.G. Nielsen, Ohio State University

D.G

. N

iels

en

, O

hio

Sta

te

Univ

ers

ity

Gina Penny

Multiflora rose, Rosa multiflora

Since plant development is temperature-dependent,

phenological events of plants can also be used to

track degree-days…

and predict pest development.

Hypothesis: the flowering sequence of

ornamental plants can be used as a

biological calendar to predict pest activity

and schedule pest management

appointments.

The hypothesis was tested in Secrest Arboretum by

monitoring over the past 7 years:

1. The phenology of 45 key arthropod pests of

ornamental plants (e.g. egg hatch, adult emergence).

2. The flowering sequence of 75 taxa of woody

ornamental plants.

The flowering sequence of plants can be used as a

biological calendar to track degree-days and

schedule pest management appointments.

S. G

age, M

ichig

an S

tate

Univ

. D.G. Nielsen, Ohio State Univ.

Phenological Sequence for Secrest Arboretum

Species Event Degree-Days

Red Maple first bloom 45

Eastern Tent Caterpillar egg hatch 92

Eastern Redbud first bloom 197

Gypsy Moth egg hatch 203

Snowdrift Crabapple first bloom 214

Birch Leafminer adult emergence 231

Common Lilac first bloom 238

Pine Needle Scale egg hatch 301

Vanhoutte Spirea first bloom 309

Lilac Borer adult emergence 336

Black Cherry first bloom 376

Euonymus Scale egg hatch 463

Black Locust first bloom 503

Bronze Birch Borer adult emergence 519

Mountain-laurel first bloom 565

Juniper Scale egg hatch 579

Littleleaf Linden first bloom 878

Japanese Beetle adult emergence 966

http://oardc.osu.edu/gdd

Key premise: phenological sequence

remains constant from year-to-year.

Extensive series of phenological records of native

plants for Columbus at the dawn of the Industrial

Revolution (1882-1887)

Bird phenology

Between 1971 and 1995 the laying date for many species

of British birds has shifted earlier by an average of 9 days.

(Nature 388: 526)

Breeding date of North American

common murre advanced by 24

days / decade

Morisette et al. 2009. Frontiers in Ecology and the

Environment 5(7):253-260

Phenology, Communities, and Ecosystems

Parmesan et al. 1999. Nature 399:579-583

In 20th century, the range of 23 of 35 European

butterfly species shifted north 35-240 km

Argynnis paphia

Temperature and the distribution of species

Suitable years (of 24 possible) for premium winegrape production in the current (Daymet) and

future (ΔDaymet) climates for four categories of grape/vine tolerance to extreme

temperatures: HTCT (a and b), HICT (c and d), HTCI (e and f), and HICI (g and h).

White M A et al. PNAS 2006;103:11217-11222

©2006 by National Academy of Sciences

The largest recorded bark beetle outbreak in human history in

northern British Columbia where winters used to be too cold for

the beetles to survive.

Dezene Huber, UNBC

Kurz et al. 2008. Mountain pine beetle and carbon feedback to

climate change. Nature 452:987-990.

http://www.garna.org/

http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp

Logan and Powell (2001) Amer.

Entomol. 47:160-173

Fire: more frequent and more intense

Since 2000: 6 worst wildfire years on record.

Since 2002: Acreage burned is 211% higher than 48

year average.

John McColgan, BLM Alaska Fire Service

Westerling et al. 2006. Warming and earlier spring increase western US

forest wildfire activity. Science 313:940-943

Science (2208) 319:1080-1083

BioScience (2007) 57:939-948

http://www.fas.org/irp/imint/docs/rst/Sect16/Sect16_2.html

Implications of Climate

Change for Agricultural

Pest Management

OARDC SEEDS

Interdisciplinary Project

Robin A. J. Taylor John Cardina Department of Entomology Department of Horticulture & Crop Science Daniel A. Herms Richard H. Moore Department of Entomology Human and Community Resource Development

Phenological Modeling

1. Based on GFDL (NOAA) global circulation

model CM2-SRES-B1 scenario developed

for IPCC-4A

2. Assumes political will exists to stabilize

climate warming by 2050

Velvetbean Caterpillar

http://entnemdept.ufl.edu

European Corn Borer

www.organicgardeninfo.com

Phenological synchrony

Global warming and phenological

asynchrony

Interacting species with differential responses to

increased temperature. For example:

Plant - herbivore interactions

Plant - pollinator interactions

Predator-prey interactions

Bird migration and prey availability

Phenological Window Hypothesis

(Feeny 1976, Mattson et al. 1982)

- A “window” of time when host traits are

most suitable for the insect

- Predicts that insect growth and survival will decline as host-insect synchronicity is modified

European pine sawfly

(Neodiprion sertifer)

Dr. Rodrigo Chorbadjian

One generation each year

Feeds on previous-year needles during a

short window of time

Constrained life-cycle

Winter April May June --- Sept

Hatch cocoon

Insect phenology manipulated relative to natural host phenology

Delayed bioassays

Advanced bioassays

Control bioassay:

Natural

hatch

Winter March April May June Sept

0

2

4

6

8

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Pine phenological stage

[shoot + needle length(cm)]

La

rva

l g

row

th (

mg

/la

rva

) . 2006

2007

As shoots expanded,

food quality declined

Ayres, M.P. (1993) Global change, plant defense, and herbivory. Biotic

interactions and global change (eds P. M. Kareiva, J. G. Kingsolver & R. B.

Huey), pp. 75-94. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA.

Changes in temperature during

larval development can affect the

outcome of the phenological race

between plant and herbivore.

► Mature leaves are of lower nutritional quality than immature leaves

► Insects and leaves have different temperature responses

Phenological race hypothesis

Ecological Effects of Temperature: Predator / Parasite

Interactions

Encarsia / whitefly interactions

Plant / pollinator interactions

“A few studies have shown that climate warming may

generate temporal mismatches among mutualistic partners.

…their demographic consequences are largely unknown.”

Hegland et al. 2009. How does climate warming affect plant-pollinator

interactions? Ecology Letters 12:184-195.

Accelerated phenology of bird migration

Long-distance migrants have advanced their spring

arrival in Scandinavia more than short-distance

migrants.

Jonzén et al. 2006. Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in

long-distance migratory birds. Science 312:1959-1961

Bird phenology and asynchrony with

food supply:

Geese not able to acquire adequate body stores

quickly enough to breed before the quality of food

for their young decreased.

Van Der Jeugd et al. 2009. Keeping up with early springs: rapid range

expansion in an avian herbivore incurs a mismatch between reproductive

timing and food supply. Global Change Biology 15:1057-1071

Key premise: phenological sequence

remains constant from year-to-year.

Ecological Effects of Temperature: Host Interactions

Ayers and Scriber (1994) Local adaptation to regional climates in Papilio

canadensis (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae). Ecol. Monogr. 465-482.

Alaska relative to Michigan populations:

Elevated metabolic rate:

• Faster growth rates at lower temp

(doubling time : 5.8 vs 9.1 days at 12C

• Faster molts at lower temp

Life history traits and fitness tradeoffs:

• 36% larger eggs but lower fecundity

• Smaller adult body size

When DD accumulation for completing a generation is not

limiting (Scriber & Lederhouse 1992):

• Relaxed selection pressure on relative growth rate.

• Other factors become relatively more important: e.g. enemy free space

(differential predation rates on different host plants)

Atmospheric CO2 has increased from

280 ppm in 1860 to 396 ppm today

http://www.bom.gov.au/info/climate/change/gallery/images/25.jpg

Vanessa Muilenburg

Elevated CO2, bronze

birch borer, and the

distribution of paper birch

% of Trees Colonized by Bronze Birch Borer

Elevated CO2, bronze

birch borer, and the

distribution of paper birch

PNAS (2008) 105:1781-1782

Soybean FACE Site, Univ Illinois

Increased CO2 often decreases growth and

survival of leaf-feeding insects as concentration

of protein decreases and defensive compounds

increase.

Herms et al. 1995

Synthesis: Diversity, Distribution, and

Abundance

Global warming and elevated CO2 can have

interacting effects on development rates, host

quality, and nutritional ecology to alter:

• phenology and voltinism patterns

• species distributions

• population dynamics

• ecological interactions

• community composition

• evolutionary trajectories

Inescapable conclusion:

Climate change is having pervasive effects on

plant and animal distributions and phenology

that will alter on a wide scale:

• species distributions

• population dynamics

• ecological interactions

• community composition

• evolutionary trajectories

Acknowledgements:

Dr. Matthew Ayres, Dartmouth College

Dr. Lyn Loveless, College of Wooster