peoria 1 final
TRANSCRIPT
MEDIA WEEKENDS AT BERNIE’S (AND OTHER HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FIRST WAVE OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE
ANNOUNCEMENTS)
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR MICHAEL CORNFIELD & ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR LARA BROWN
RELEASE DATE: MAY 28, 2015
How do we know who’s winning before the votes come
in?
We follow polls, money, and endorsements.
Now, we followwords.
Using Zignal Labs’ platform, GSPM tracks the mainstream and social media echoes
of the presidential candidates and their campaign messages.
PART ONE
Summary and comparative metrics of the announced
candidates.
TOTAL MENTIONS
Candidates Announcement Date
Ted Cruz March 23
Rand Paul April 7
Hillary Clinton April 12
Marco Rubio April 13
Bernie Sanders April 30
Ben Carson May 4
Carly Fiorina May 4
Mike Huckabee May 5
Candidates(In announcement order)
Announced Only
Announced & Likely
Candidates
Republicans Only
Democrats Only
Ted Cruz 25 20 33 --
Rand Paul 10 8 14 --
Hillary Clinton 47 38 -- 95
Marco Rubio 11 9 14 --
Bernie Sanders 1 1 -- 2
Ben Carson 3 2 4 --
Carly Fiorina 1 1 1 --
Mike Huckabee 2 2 3 --
Currently unannounced
Jeb Bush -- 8 14 --
Scott Walker -- 5 8 --
Chris Christie -- 4 7 --
Rick Perry -- 1 2 --
Martin O’Malley -- 1 -- 2
Jim Webb -- <1 -- 1
Lincoln Chafee -- <1 -- <1
SHARE OF VOICE
SHARE OF VOICE
Candidates(In announcement order)
Mainstream Media
Social Media
Ted Cruz 19 27
Rand Paul 14 10
Hillary Clinton 43 47
Marco Rubio 15 10
Bernie Sanders
1 1
Ben Carson 3 3
Carly Fiorina <1 1
Mike Huckabee
5 2
ANNOUNCEMENT ECHO
ANNOUNCEMENT ECHO
Candidates (In announcement order)
Announcement Echo Dates
Total Mentions During Echo
Share of Voice During Echo (in %)
Positive Mentions During Echo
Negative Mentions During Echo
Net Sentiment (%positive – %negative, in %)
Ted Cruz March 23-28 1,777,644 80 271,682 264,831 1.2
Rand Paul April 7-11 487,545 46 87,775 115,548 -13.6
Hillary Clinton
April 12-18 1,970,930 68 466,457 270,145 26.6
Marco Rubio
April 13-16 448,956 27 82,157 84,398 -1.4
Bernie Sanders
April 30-May2 35 <1 1 0 nd
Ben Carson May 4-5 114,772 27 68,546 57,365 8.8
Carly Fiorina
May 4-5 21,328 5 4,783 3,545 14.8
Mike Huckabee
May 4-5 93,979 26 15,770 21,219 -14.8
ANNOUNCEMENT ECHO
THE CHANGING SHARE OF VOICE
THE CHANGING SENTIMENT
MEDIA WEEKENDS AT BERNIE’S
Bernie’s Sunday Show: This Week Appearance (Saturday, May 2 – Monday, May 4)
Bernie’s Sunday Show: Face The Nation Appearance (Saturday, May 9 – Monday, May 11)
Total Mentions 4,523 15,878
Positive Mentions
718 3,083
Negative Mentions
469 1,666
Net Sentiment (%positive – %negative, in percent)
20 30
Website Shares
1,781 538
POPULAR ECHO TWEET
Candidates (In announcement order)
Tweet Author
Most Popular Tweet During Announcement Echo Tweet Shares
Ted Cruz Ted CruzI'm running for President and I hope to earn your support!
http://t.co/0UTqaIoytP @tedcruz
12,547
Rand Paul BBC NewsSenator Rand Paul becomes second Republican to announce bid for
US presidential race http://t.co/VuU1Eyg94m http://t.co/7XkW9g1fgI @BBCBreaking
6,868
Hillary ClintonHillary Clinton
I'm running for president. Everyday Americans need a champion, and I want to be that champion. –H https://t.co/w8Hoe1pbtC
@HillaryClinton94,519
Marco RubioDaniel
Kibblesmith
Nice try "Marco Rubio" — or should I say... [rearranges letters] "BIRAC UBOMA" [audience gasps]
@kibblesmith9,482
Bernie SandersBernie
Sanders
I am running for President of the United States because America needs a political revolution. Join our campaign:
https://t.co/e7qc6g5Qwf@BernieSanders
1,666
Ben Carson Ben CarsonI'm in it!
@RealBenCarson3,064
Carly Fiorina Carly FiorinaI am running for President. http://t.co/TiEAlrWpUc
@CarlyFiorina1,101
Mike Huckabee Dylan HaileyMike Huckabee breaks the law on day one of his campaign, he can't
even follow simple rules, why should we trust him? http://t.co/d1EO8X0VmJ @TibitXimer
2,002
CAMPAIGN WEBSITE SHARES
ECHO CONVERSION RATE – AN IMPORTANT PAYOFF
Candidates (In announcement order)
Announcement Date
Total Mentions (March 15 – May
15)
Chatter Volume (# of mentions
above/below mean # of mentions,
March 15 – May 15)
Total Website Shares in 60 days (March 15 – May 15)
60-day Echo Conversion Rate
(Total Website Shares/Total
Mentions, in %)
Ted Cruz March 23 2,583,637 1,294,311 85,355 3.3
Rand Paul April 7 1,068,778 -220,548 23,772 2.2
Hillary Clinton April 12 4,826,745 3,537,419 173,342 3.6
Marco Rubio April 13 1,104,881 -184,445 24,238 2.2
Bernie Sanders April 30 92,270 -1,197,056 8,213 8.9
Ben Carson May 4 318,510 -970,816 1,724 0.5
Carly Fiorina May 4 65,610 -1,223,716 2,670 4.1
Mike Huckabee May 5 254,176 -1,035,150 8,576 3.4
PART TWO
Emerging Brands – what word clouds tell us about each
announced candidate.
TED CRUZ (3/15-5/15)
RAND PAUL (3/15-5/15)
HILLARY CLINTON (3/15-5/15)
MARCO RUBIO (3/15-5/15)
BERNIE SANDERS (3/15-5/15)
BEN CARSON (3/15–5/15)
CARLY FIORINA (3/15-5/15)
MIKE HUCKABEE (3/15-5/15)
GSPM ECHO RATING MARCH 15 – MAY 15, 2015
Candidates(In announcement order)
GSPM Echo Rating (for each candidate’s announcement
and for the 60-day period)
Ted Cruz 7
Rand Paul 5
Hillary Clinton 8
Marco Rubio 5
Bernie Sanders* 4
Ben Carson 2
Carly Fiorina 3
Mike Huckabee 3
* = Sanders formal announcement was a “1” but his follow-on weekends were highly successful and raised his overall rating to a “4.”
QUESTIONS?
Graduate School of Political Management
Michael Cornfield Lara BrownAssociate Professor Associate [email protected]
Zignal Labs
Pete Eskew D.J. WaldowSenior Account Executive Director of [email protected] [email protected]