pecan presentation march 25, 2014 presented by helen watts young pecan, inc
DESCRIPTION
Pecan Presentation March 25, 2014 Presented by Helen Watts Young Pecan, Inc. Recap 2012/13 Supply and Consumption Look at Present Day 2013/14 Crop China Demand Global Supply. EXPORT CONSUMPTION. Source: USDA-FAS March 2013 2008-2013 Average: 57,638 Metric Tons. Inshell Supply. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Pecan PresentationMarch 25, 2014
Presented by Helen WattsYoung Pecan, Inc.
• Recap 2012/13 Supply and Consumption• Look at Present Day 2013/14 Crop• China Demand• Global Supply
05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 Est 13-14 Est -
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
71,435
142,629
75,299
201,319
94,194 91,033 95,107 122,914
181,473
280,200
207,300 387,305
194,080
302,020 293,740 271,400
366,500 213,000
111,238 80,844
104,739
118,734 148,458
146,643 138,963
139,156
138,000
Total Supply ComponentsUS and Mexico
Sept 30 Carry In Crop size Mexico
Inshell Basis
'000
pou
nds
in s
hell
2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/2013 2013/2014 EST
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
SUPPLY CONSUMPTIONSupply = Carry-in + Imports + US Production
Consumption = US Usage + US Exports
Supply Demand
'000
PO
UNDS
INSH
ELL
EXPORT CONSUMPTION
07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-130
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
48,447,18750,569,776
76,462,583
43,753,373
73,160,092
99,327,151
China Total Exports Meats and In-Shell Converted to In-Shell Pounds
Reporting Period: 10/2007 - 9/2013
08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-140
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
14,656,401
59,792,500
28,708,522
48,382,593
69,250,895
31,059,948
Exports - China, Hong Kong, Vietnam Meats and In-Shell Converted to In-Shell Pounds
Reporting Period: 10/2008-1/2009 to 10/2013-1/2014
SOURCE: USDA-FAS MARCH 2013 2008-2013 AVERAGE: 57,638 METRIC TONS
ASIA45%
EU23%
CANADA18%
MEXICO7%
ISRAEL4%
OTHERS3%
U.S. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY - INSHELL BASIS
Inshell Supply
Inshell SupplyChallenges Moving Forward
USA
Mexico
S Africa Aust. Others
2010 Oct 2011 Oct 2012 Oct 2013 Oct 2014 Oct 2015 Oct 2016 Oct 2017 Oct 2018 Oct 2019 Oct 2020 Oct0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
67388159
997111821
1380916235
19468
23667
29265
35939
43348
66004700
95007500
South African Supply Projections (metric tons)
Inshell Basis
Outlook for 2014
• Better half to piece shellout ratios• Continuation of recovery of domestic consumption• Pecans advantageously priced against other tree nuts• Shortage of larger sizes of pecan halves could occur
as we move into second half of 2014• Price gap between halves and pieces is likely to
continue through balance of this year• Expect manageable carry-in with potential for larger
2014/15 crop production
Opportunities/ChallengesOpportunities• Greater interest from food manufacturers on new R&D projects• Some retailers finally booking at the benefits of promoting pecan pieces in high
demand periods• Kernel exports continue to be strong
Challenges• Food Safety Modernization Act
– Lumping tree nuts into Produce– FDA Risk Assessment
• China – How aggressive will they be• Growing Global Supply
– How do we increase demand
QUESTIONS?