peak oil, implications for planning

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Peak Oil, Implications for planning ASPO-Australia Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas Oil vulnerability: managing the risk Wally Wight ASPO Brisbane – 04 June 2013

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Oil vulnerability: managing the risk. Wally Wight ASPO Brisbane – 04 June 2013. Peak Oil, Implications for planning. ASPO-Australia. Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas. Oil depletion’s impact on human settlement is not new. Global discovery peaked in 1964 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

Peak Oil,Implications for planning

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Oil vulnerability: managing the riskWally Wight ASPO Brisbane – 04 June 2013

Page 2: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Oil depletion’s impact on human settlement is not new

Global discovery peaked in 1964USA production peaked in 1971Canada (once considered inexhaustible) peaked in 1973Australia peaked in 2000I only became aware of peak oil (though not by that

name) nearly 60 years ago by land use change when my first school closed due to a lack of students.

The Turner Valley Oilfield, Alberta, Canada (scene of my childhood and a microcosm of the global scene), had peaked 15 years before.

Page 3: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

The Turner Valley Oil Rush14 May 1914, Dingman No 1

blew in:It hit pay dirt at 800 metres

depth yielding 400 000 cu m/day of natural gas pushing out a gusher of oil

Within 24 hours, promoters had formed more than 500 oil companies!

Page 4: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

During the “boom”, a string of “shantytowns” mushroomed:

NapthaGlen Mede (my

first school)HartellMercuryLittle Chicago

(Royalties) population 1350

Little New York (Longview)

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Community development

Page 5: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Use and Abuse: “Hell’s half-acre”

Up to the 1940’s, Turner Valley had been the most productive field in the entire British Empire:

25 000 barrels of oil/day20 million Cu M of gas/dayGas had little market value

and the “excess” (enough to satisfy New York City’s energy needs) was simply burned off in massive flares.

Production peaked in 1940.

Page 6: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

After the peak: 1950’s reduced gas pressure

meant pumps were required Automation reduced labour

demand, resulting in job losses and depopulation.

1960’s depeted oil levels were addressed by water injection.

1970’s more wells and pumps were introduced to extract from increasingly isolated pockets.

Current flurry of horizontal drilling and new pumping technology.

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Changing Technologies

Page 7: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

“Rural renewal” of townships

NapthaGlen MedeHartellMercury

(refinery explosion in 1951)

Royalties

All reconverted to farmland

Longview the only survivor

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Community deconstruction

Page 8: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Lessons from this past experience:Oil depletion is real, and

already happening.

Wastage and excesses make the impacts orders of magnitude worse.

70+ years post-peak, there is still oil to be had from Turner Valley, but progressively lower in volume and more difficult and expensive to extract.

We need to recognise that it is happening.

We need to curb our wastage and excess early to minimise the impact.

Globally, we are already very late in preparing and responding to the end of cheap oil.

Page 9: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

So when do we have to act?

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

If a crash program to reduce oil use or to switch from oil to renewable energy had begun:

20 years before Peak Oil (from 1986?): Possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period. Slight economic disruptions.

10 years before Peak Oil (from 1996?): Liquid fuels shortfall for roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked.Moderate economic disruptions.

0 years before Peak Oil (from 2006?): Significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades. Severe economic disruptions (as started in 2008? 2nd dip soon?)

Page 10: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

Current switch to “unconventionals”

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Already, we are relying more on unconventional sources, and are now facing the risks and consequences.

Actual 1999 BP advertisement    

Page 11: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

Can alternative fuels help?

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Page 12: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Likely Oil Depletion “Events”

1. Sudden critical supply interruptionSharp price risesReduced availability of supply (queueing, rationing)

2. Intermittent supply constraintsVolatile price fluctuations (our experience of the last five years),

and/orSharp volatility of demand affected by price (ditto)

3. Progressive supply constraints global increase in demand competitionIncreased retention of reserves by exporters, and associated price rises (CSIRO models $8.00/litre)

Page 13: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

Transport is dependent on oil

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Australia’s oil consumption: 72% for transport 8.5% for mining 7.1% for chemicals

Oil-based plastics are Highly vulnerable Toxic and non-recyclable Minimal local value capture

4.8% for agriculture

Transport is over 90% oil dependent

Page 14: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

Energy consumed by vehicles (Qld) More than half of energy is consumed by private passenger cars Trucks and light commercial vehicles share most of the balance

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Page 15: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

Australia relies disproportionately on road transport .

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

In spite of increasing vulnerability, the proportion of freight taken on trucks is actually growing.

Our dispersed population and economic activity makes the flexibility of trucking compelling.

Transport infrastructure investment tends to favour roads to facilitate increased road freight.

Page 16: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

Our communities are at riskFor any decision

regarding capital expenditure or operations:

Will this initiative exacerbate oil vulnerability?

Or will it reduce vulnerability?

The viability and sustainability of our communities’ are at stake.

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Page 17: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

We can’t simply build our way out of oil vulnerability .

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Reliance on more infrastructure as a possible solution is problematic.

Conventional construction of transport infrastructure is still very oil intensive in both materials and machinery

Page 18: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

So how can we respond? .Identify and quantify oil

usage in each sector and operation,

Identify vulnerable activities and processes,

Review how critical those vulnerable activities and processes are, then

Assess the risks and consequences of the oil depletion events.

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Page 19: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

We require a transformation

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

From:Sprawling, Car-based monocultures

To:Functionally diverse,Locally self-reliant,Economically productive,Socially inclusive,Energy and water efficient,Less carbon intensive, andMore resilient settlement patterns

Page 20: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

Post-Peak, How will we exchange goods and services? .

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Page 21: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

Choice of transit modes

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Walking and cycling are most sustainable;

Buses, trams and trains carry people more efficiently and amenably than cars do...and can share the public realm;

Ferries (or kayaks) turn the rivers and the Bay from barriers to connectors

…and make transit an absolute pleasure!

Page 22: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

Using domestic solar to charge the car frees us from hydrocarbons

Energy storage in the car’s battery addresses one of the key challenges of domestic solar

The effectiveness of the combination will depend on when the car is being charged and when used.

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Integrate home and vehicle energy .

Page 23: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

Goods and Services can be Produced and Exchanged Locally .

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Integration of land use to minimise transport -(compact, accessible and permeable mixed-use centres to live, work and play, requiring minimum motorised travel)

Use public transport, walking and cyclingBuy local – reduce commodity kilometresSubstitute oil-dependent products in favour of

renewable and local alternativesGet used to living with less – human exchange is

more important than commodity exchange.

Page 24: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Designing our Urban “places”Our cities and “places” must support human exchange …not just “keep the vehicles moving”.

We live in cities to maximise exchange with a minimum of travel.

Only at the pedestrian scale and at pedestrian pace, is valuable human exchange possible.

Reducing reliance on vehicles not only reduces oil vulnerability, but will help our cities function.

Page 25: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

What can place-based planning do?Identify opportunities to

reduce vulnerability Reinforce land use to

minimise travel (the most economical trip is the trip not taken)

Change modes, Change logistics, Substitute less

vulnerable activities and processes,

Find efficiencies and economies for activities and processes that cannot be avoided

Find alternative energies or fuels

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Page 26: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

Social and Land use Responses

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Transport vulnerability is addressed by non-transport solutions

TOD: Co-location and intensification of diverse land uses

Localisation and self-containment of employment, supply chains, production, and economic activity

Page 27: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

Some Councils have taken the initiative to address vulnerability of not just their own operations, but also their communities.Maribyrnong, VicSterling, WASunshine Coast, QldGold Coast, Qld

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Local government’s role

Page 28: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Statutory support was emerging .Towards Q2 2020 Target: Cut by one-

third Queenslanders’ carbon footprint with reduced car and electricity use

Qld Government had adopted an oil vulnerability report and was preparing an Oil Vulnerability Strategy

FNQ and SEQ Regional Plans require oil vulnerability to be addressed – but will these provisions survive?

Page 29: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

…and professional interest ASPO has long supported initiatives to raise awareness (eg. Brisbane

Chapter locally-produced movie “Australia Pumping Empty”)

The Planning Institute of Australia dedicated its December 2010 Australian Planner issue to peak oil and is preparing a book of the findings,

ASPO Brisbane and Griffith University are hosting this oil vulnerability symposium.

So the oil vulnerability issue is gaining credence and traction…

Page 30: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

What we must do to respond to peak oil is exactly what must be done for urban transformation

Transition is an awesome responsibility

Are we ready?

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Conclusions

Page 31: Peak Oil, Implications for planning

ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Thank youWally Wight

[email protected]

0417 741 377

Coordinator Brisbane Chapter

ASPO Australia

Adjunct Senior Research Fellow

Curtin University Sustainability Policy (CUSP) Institute