PEAK OILPEAK OIL(and the unfolding energy crisis)(and the unfolding energy crisis)

-What is Peak Oil?What is Peak Oil?

-What are the consequences?What are the consequences?

-What can we do about it?What can we do about it?

Fuel Prices - Yesterday, Today, … Tomorrow?

1955

2005

Oil originates from the chemical decomposition of microorganisms that got buried under geologic formations in the sea

millions of years ago.

In some cases the sea retreated, which explains why oil is also found on land.

-Oil was a gift from nature.

-It took millions of years to produce

-When it’s gone, it’s gone forever

Before the first oil well was dug in Pennsylvania in 1859, Nature had made about two trillion barrels of

recoverable oil and scattered it unevenly around the world.

By 2006 we’ve used up about 0.96 trillion. In other words we’re near

the half-way point.

“Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage”, Kenneth S. Deffeyes

An oil well isn’t like a car’s fuel tank.

With a car you can drive at full speed until the moment you run out of fuel.

That’s because your tank is a hollow cavity. The fuel fills the bottom of the tank and there’s nothing preventing it from being pumped out.

But an oil well isn’t a hollow cavity.

It’s a large deposit of stones or sandstone sandwiched between two layers of impervious rock. The hollow spaces between the stones or sand are filled with thick and viscous oil.

A pipe is lowered into the mixture of oil and stones or sand and the oil is pumped up.

It takes time for oil to ooze from zones of high pressure to the zone of low pressure near the pipe.

Click

In order to extract the oil from an oil field, a large number of wells are drilled.

An oil field empties rapidly at the start

and yields lots of oil.

Then the flow slows down gradually.

Towards the end the flow eases to a

trickle.

An oil field yields its contents over the years, something like this.

Mid point

2nd half

When you plot the production of an aggregate of oil fields, it approximates a bell curve

Top of the curve

1st half

…and from then on, oil production will decline year

after year…

The top of the bell curve is whatpetroleum experts refer to as the oil peak or peak oil.

http://www.oilcrisis.com/

Remember that we’ve used up almost half of the world’soil. When we reach the half-way point on a bell curve, we

embark upon the decline.

The Hubbert Peak In 1956 Hubbert, using mathematical models,

predicted that the oil extraction for the US lower 48 states would peak in 1970

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/

• Many oil fields, countries, and oil companies have already peaked.

• The US peaked in 1970.

• 53 of 68 oil producing countries are in decline.

Oil discoveries in the US peaked- then 40 years later production peaked

Adapted from Collin Campbell, University of Clausthal Conference, Dec 2000

The US lower 48 states

If the world follows the US pattern:

Adapted from: Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist

…the world would peak soon

There Are No More Giant Oil Fields Being Discovered

• In spite of advanced exploration technology we are finding smaller and smaller oil fields

…for each barrel of oil that is being discovered

We’re consuming 4

barrels…

“The Party’s Over”, Richard Heinberg

Energy Return On Energy Invested

It refers to the ratio of:

The amountof energy spent on getting the

fuel:

exploration, drilling,

pumping, transportation and refining

The amount of energy in the

fuel:

Either gasoline, diesel,

kerosene, etc.

AND

(EROEI)

“The Party’s Over”, Richard Heinberg

Energy Return On Energy Invested

Before 1950 it was about 100 to 1

In the 1970s it was down to 30 to 1

Now (2005) it’s about 10 to 1

The Tar Sands have an EROEI of about 4 to 1

“The Party’s Over”, Richard Heinberg

is diminishing as we resort to going after the hard-to-get oil:

Exploration doesn’t pay anymore

In 2003 oil companies spent $8 billion on

exploration and discovered $4 billion in

new reserves.*

* Thomas Homer Dixon and Julio Friedmann, N.Y. Times, 25 Mar 2005** John S. Herold consulting firm

Since 2000, the cost of finding and developing new sources of oil has risen about 15% annually.

There’s no more spare capacity in the world supply

Adapted from “The Oil Age is Over”, Matt Savinar

Spare capacity = how much extra

oil can be produced within 30 days notice and maintained

for 90 days

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1985 1990 2003 2004

SPARE OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY

Abu Dubai Iran Iraq Kuwait Neutral Saudi VenezuelaYear Dhabi Zone Arabia1980 28.0 1.4 58.0 31.0 65 6.1 163 181981 29.0 1.4 57.5 30.0 66 6.0 165 181982 30.6 1.3 57.0 29.7 65 5.9 165 201983 30.5 1.4 55.3 41.0 64 5.7 162 221984 30.4 1.4 51.0 43.0 64 5.6 166 251985 30.5 1.4 48.5 44.5 90 5.4 169 261986 30.0 1.4 47.9 44.1 90 5.4 169 261987 31.0 1.4 48.8 47.1 92 5.3 167 251988 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 92 5.2 167 561989 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 92 5.2 170 581990 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 92 5.0 258 591991 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 95 5.0 258 591992 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 94 5.0 258 631993 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 94 5.0 259 631994 92.2 4.3 89.3 100 94 5.0 259 651995 92.2 4.3 88.2 100 94 5.0 259 651996 92.2 4.0 93.0 112.0 94 5.0 259 651997 92.2 4.0 93.0 112.5 94 5.0 259 721998 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 259 731999 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 261 732000 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 261 772001 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 261 782002 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 261 78

SpuriousOPECReserveRevisions

Les Magoon, an oil geologist and scientist emeritus with the U.S. Geological Survey:

JOAN LOWY, Scripps Howard News Service, October 28, 2004

“My feeling is this is the beginning of the oil peak and the next administration, whoever it may be, is going to have to deal with this. We're not going to run out of oil, it's just that the demand on a daily basis will far exceed the ability of the world to produce oil so the price is going to go up,"

Mike Bowlin, Chairman and CEO, ARCO, 1999; Chairman,

American Petroleum Institute:

JOAN LOWY, Scripps Howard News Service, October 28, 2004

“We’ve embarked on the beginning of the last days of the age of oil.”

British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy:

“18 major oil-producing countries are now past their peak production.”

Beyond Petroleum

US Vice-President Dick Cheney, when he was Chairman of

Halliburton, 1999:

“By some estimates there will be an average of two per cent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with conservatively a three per cent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day.”

Saudi saying:

“My father rode a camel.

I drive a car.

My son flies a jet airplane.

His son will ride a camel.”

PEAK OILPEAK OIL

Part 2Part 2

-What are the consequences?What are the consequences?

Energy Slaves

Population

First Oil Well ?

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Anno Domini

Bill

ion

s o

f P

eop

le

OIL (1857)

The life support pie is shrinking:The foundation of

all agriculture, the soil, is diminishing

in all parts of the world

Aquifers are being pumped

dry

Forests are disappeari

ng

Fisheries are being

decimated

Biodiversity is being

extinguished

Rivers are drying up

• Farming “is an annual artificial catastrophe, and it requires the equivalent of three or four tons of TNT per acre for a modern American farm. Iowa's fields require the energy of 4,000 Nagasaki bombs every year.” 1

Fossil Fuel and Agriculture

1 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005. Mr. Manning was referring to the growing of the world’s major grain crops - corn, rice and wheat.

Fossil Fuel and Agriculture

• On average, the food industry uses 10 calories of fossil fuel energy to produce 1 calorie of food.

• For pork, it’s 68 calories for 1 calorie on your plate.

• For beef, it’s 35 calories for 1 calorie on your plate. 1

1 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005.

“World population today stands at 5.8 billion and is expected to increase to 8.0 billion by 2020. Cereals are the world's most important stable nutrient source and to meet future demand cereal production will need to double by the year 2020. Production of other foodstuffs will also have to increase significantly.Fertilizer, both organic and inorganic, will have to play a vital role if the food production necessary to support the increased population is to be provided”.

Fertilizer Association of Ireland

Fertilizer Association of Ireland

This graph shows that GDP increases when oil production

(energy) increases.

In other words, economic growth requires growth

of energy supply.

We will soon reach the point where we can’t pump out enough to keep up with

demand.

Oil is so versatile…The petrochemical industry can refine oil into many different fuels and products.

GasNaphthaGasolineKeroseneDieselLubricants

http://science.howstuffworks.com

including plastics, textiles, pharmaceuticals etc..

Tourism only exists because cheap oil is available

Resource Wars for Oil

“I cannot think of a time when we have had a region emerge as suddenly to become as strategically significant as the Caspian." But the oil and gas there is worthless until it is moved. The only route which makes both political and economic sense is through Afghanistan”

Dick Cheney as CEO Halliburton in 1998

Central Asia pipeline deal signed

December 2002, The BBC

By Ian McWilliam BBC correspondent in Kabul

An agreement has been signed in the Turkmen capital, Ashgabat, paving the way for construction of a gas pipeline from the Central Asian republic through Afghanistan to Pakistan.

The building of the trans-Afghanistan pipeline has been under discussion for some years but plans have been held up by Afghanistan's unstable political situation.

IRAN, NIGERIA, VENEZUELA?????

Saudi envoy urges no U.S. attack on Iran

By David R. SandsThe Washington Times Published May 31, 2006

WASHINGTON -- A military strike against Iran's suspected nuclear sites would have "catastrophic" effects on other Persian Gulf states and on U.S. interests in the region and beyond, Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Washington warned yesterday.

U.S. ships in Nigeria to protect oilABUJA, Nigeria, June 1 (UPI) -- The U.S. presence in the Gulf of Guinea is said to be a result of the U.S. Navy protecting Nigerian oil plants from terrorists, Nigeria's The Guardian reported. A report published in the Nigerian newspaper Wednesday said that the U.S. Navy was patrolling the Gulf of Guinea, home to Nigeria's biggest oil field, Bonga Project, to prevent the field from being targeted "by terrorists and other maritime criminals."

ForbesVenezuela Adds Troops to Colombian Border By FABIOLA SANCHEZ , 06.02.2006, 11:32 PM

Venezuela is beefing up its troop strength along the Colombian border, negotiating with Russia to set up arms factories, and preparing for a possible invasion, the army commander said Friday. "We cannot set aside the possibility of a military invasion on our country," because its vast oil deposits make it a target, he said.

THE ENVIRONMENT

Arctic Ice Cap, 1979 vs 2003

World Temperature History

Global warming predictions are underestimated say scientists Ian Sample, science correspondentTuesday May 23, 2006The Guardian

British efforts to combat climate change have focused on preventing carbon dioxide levels rising above 450 parts per million, equivalent to a rise of 2C. If the world warms by more than this, many climate experts believe fragile ecosystems will be pushed beyond their "tipping point", triggering runaway global warming.

Atmospheric CO2

PEAK OILPEAK OIL

Part 3Part 3

-What can we do about it?What can we do about it?

Many solutions in sight

•A Depletion Protocol to cut imports to match depletion rate

•New energy saving policies–achievable with little pain

•Climate change fears may evaporate

•Many technological solutions –not for finding more oil, but for using less

Priorities -Tackle population growth.

-Impose very high levels of fuel efficiency for cars and energy efficiency for houses

-Spend less money on roads and more on renewable energy programmes and DECENT public transport systems

-Grants for domestic electricity generation

-A reasoned debate on the use of nuclear power

-Greater use of arable land for growing crops such as rapeseed, sugar for ethanol, willow for wood pellets etc.

-Buying locally produced goods where possible

Which Future?

Mad Max

Star Trek

Greenpeace

Thank You