pbn: measuring the benefitspbn after pbn cloud base (100s of feet above runway) landed diverted...

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Mahino Research New Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment PBN: Measuring the Benefits Measuring PBN programme benefits from evidence Tim Hughes Director Mahino Research

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Page 1: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

PBN: Measuring the BenefitsMeasuring PBN programme benefits from evidence

Tim HughesDirectorMahino Research

Page 2: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

PBN : More flexible and precise flight paths

… enable superior navigation designs which deliver new operational and financial benefits

Conventional RNAV RNP

Ground based equipment

Waypoints at arbitrary locations

Precise guidance close to obstacles

Curved flight path with smooth, continuous vertical gradient

Page 3: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

PBN: Improves safety, reliability, efficiency, capacity

Safety Reduced risk on landing approach

Reliability Continue to land in more adverse weather

Efficiency Shorter flight paths save time and fuel

Capacity Separated traffic flows enable growth

Page 4: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

The challenge: quantify PBN benefits from facts

“everything should be as simple as it can be, but no simpler”Composer Roger Sessions paraphrasing Albert Einstein in the New York Times, 1950.

COMPAREPBN Outcomes

Counterfactual (what would

otherwise happen)

• Measure from actual operations• Focus on most important effects• Exclude non-PBN factors• Include relevant barriers which remain

Page 5: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

If you use it

PBN approaches reduce risk

1990s large scale studies of approach and landing accidents found risk reduction factors

Safety

Runway aligned approach : 25 x less risk Approach with vertical guidance: 8 x less risk

ICAO Mandate NSS Specification 200 x risk reduction

Page 6: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

Passenger safety benefitSafety

PBN approach with vertical guidance to be introduced

At these airports• 2,220,000 passengers

on instrument approaches annually• 12% of national total

Computed per flight using 2016 data

Passenger risk reduction

Passengers

Aircraft Seats

Load Factor

IFR approach?

ATIS

Page 7: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

PBN: Improves safety, reliability, efficiency, capacity

Safety Reduced risk on landing approach

Reliability Continue to land in more adverse weather

Efficiency Shorter flight paths save time and fuel

Capacity Separated traffic flows enable growth

Page 8: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

PBN procedures can be closer to terrain.• This allows a lower missed approach height• Reducing diversions in low visibility / poor weather

Runway sighting required at missed approach point

Before PBN: ~3000 ft

With PBN: 704 to 278 ft

PBN reduces diversions at QueenstownReliability

Page 9: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

Before PBN

After PBN

Cloud base (100s of feet above runway)

Landed

Diverted

PBN reduces diversions at QueenstownReliability

From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post PBN)• Probability of diverting due weather

reduced by 17.2%

In 2016, • 190 jets arrived in the relevant weather

conditions• 33 Diversions avoided

Annual SavingsAvoided flight time (hours): 82Fuel (kg): 215,000 Direct costs: (NZ$) 776,000Passenger time (hours) : 24,000

Page 10: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

PBN: Improves safety, reliability, efficiency, capacity

Safety Reduced risk on landing approach

Reliability Continue to land in more adverse weather

Efficiency Shorter flight paths save time and fuel

Capacity Separated traffic flows enable growth

Page 11: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

• PBN procedures are designed with a shorter final approach (X)

• The flight distance saved depends on the relative direction of runway and flight origin

X

Saving = 0

Saving = X

Saving = 2X

PBN approaches save flight timeEfficiency

OriginalPBN

Page 12: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

• Top of descent occurs earlier on shorter flights

• The time, fuel, and cost savings occur in cruise conditions

Distance saved

Distance

Hei

ght

PBN approaches save cruise flight timeEfficiency

Origin Destination

Page 13: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

• Modelled for future PBN programme

• Measured from surveillance data for Auckland

PBN flight path reduction benefitsEfficiency

Computed for all runways, routes, and aircraft using 2016 data

Value of savings

Approach path

change

Route direction

Aircraft type

Route traffic

volume

Weather

Operating costs

Page 14: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

PBN flight path reduction benefitsEfficiency

Annual Impact

Instrument approaches 115,607

Visual approaches (excluded) 23,017

Average flight path reduction 2.26 nm

Annual flight time saved 1,100 hours

Fuel savings 999,000 kg

CO2 emissions reduction 3,148,000 kg

Avoided operating costs 2.1 M NZ$

Passenger time saved 76,467 hours

Page 15: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

Y RWY 23LY RWY 05R

X RWY 05RX RWY 23L

U RWY 23L

ILSRWY 05R

ILS RWY 23L

PBN flight path reductionEfficiency

COMPAREPBN Outcomes

Counterfactual (what would

otherwise happen)

• Auckland approaches measured from surveillance data

• Compare actual flight paths with reference baseline

• Exclude non-PBN factors such as congestion due to demand/capacity imbalance

Page 16: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

• Trial 2012-2013

• Amended procedures in production from late May 2015

• Flight distance saved often > 12nm

PBN flight path reductionEfficiency

Page 17: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

• Reference period without northern PBN approaches

• Compare with similar period when PBN approaches are in use

PBN flight path reductionEfficiency

Page 18: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

Y RWY 23LY RWY 05R

X RWY 05RX RWY 23L

U RWY 23L

ILSRWY 05R

ILS RWY 23L

PBN flight path reductionEfficiency

Annual Impact

Flight time saved 88.3 hours

Fuel savings 335,000 kg

CO2 emissions reduction 1,070,000 kg

Avoided operating costs 482,000 NZ$

Passenger time saved 13,800 hours

• Max 10 movements/day on new approaches

• Annual 12% increase in traffic at Auckland

Page 19: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

PBN efficiency gains continue during high traffic periods

Despite significant traffic growth:

• Most flights have little delay even at peak periods

• PBN approaches continue to be used during high arrival rates

Efficiency

Page 20: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

PBN: Improves safety, reliability, efficiency, capacity

Safety Reduced risk on landing approach

Reliability Continue to land in more adverse weather

Efficiency Shorter flight paths save time and fuel

Capacity Separated traffic flows enable growth

Page 21: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

PBN reduces congestion at QueenstownCapacity

• PBN refresh 15 November 2012• Separated arrival and departure flows• This enables sustained inbound traffic at peak times• Capacity is increased, enabling growth

Page 22: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

• Peak flow rate unchanged

• Traffic growing at peak times

• Greatest traffic volume growth is international in winter

Year International Arriving Flights

International Passengers

2012 852 215,300

2016 1951 508,902

Increase 128% 136%

Capacity

Page 23: PBN: Measuring the BenefitsPBN After PBN Cloud base (100s of feet above runway) Landed Diverted Reliability PBN reduces diversions at Queenstown From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post

Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment

Questions

Thank you

Tim HughesMahino [email protected]+64 22 604 5294