pbn: measuring the benefitspbn after pbn cloud base (100s of feet above runway) landed diverted...
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Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
PBN: Measuring the BenefitsMeasuring PBN programme benefits from evidence
Tim HughesDirectorMahino Research
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
PBN : More flexible and precise flight paths
… enable superior navigation designs which deliver new operational and financial benefits
Conventional RNAV RNP
Ground based equipment
Waypoints at arbitrary locations
Precise guidance close to obstacles
Curved flight path with smooth, continuous vertical gradient
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
PBN: Improves safety, reliability, efficiency, capacity
Safety Reduced risk on landing approach
Reliability Continue to land in more adverse weather
Efficiency Shorter flight paths save time and fuel
Capacity Separated traffic flows enable growth
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
The challenge: quantify PBN benefits from facts
“everything should be as simple as it can be, but no simpler”Composer Roger Sessions paraphrasing Albert Einstein in the New York Times, 1950.
COMPAREPBN Outcomes
Counterfactual (what would
otherwise happen)
• Measure from actual operations• Focus on most important effects• Exclude non-PBN factors• Include relevant barriers which remain
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
If you use it
PBN approaches reduce risk
1990s large scale studies of approach and landing accidents found risk reduction factors
Safety
Runway aligned approach : 25 x less risk Approach with vertical guidance: 8 x less risk
ICAO Mandate NSS Specification 200 x risk reduction
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
Passenger safety benefitSafety
PBN approach with vertical guidance to be introduced
At these airports• 2,220,000 passengers
on instrument approaches annually• 12% of national total
Computed per flight using 2016 data
Passenger risk reduction
Passengers
Aircraft Seats
Load Factor
IFR approach?
ATIS
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
PBN: Improves safety, reliability, efficiency, capacity
Safety Reduced risk on landing approach
Reliability Continue to land in more adverse weather
Efficiency Shorter flight paths save time and fuel
Capacity Separated traffic flows enable growth
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
PBN procedures can be closer to terrain.• This allows a lower missed approach height• Reducing diversions in low visibility / poor weather
Runway sighting required at missed approach point
Before PBN: ~3000 ft
With PBN: 704 to 278 ft
PBN reduces diversions at QueenstownReliability
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
Before PBN
After PBN
Cloud base (100s of feet above runway)
Landed
Diverted
PBN reduces diversions at QueenstownReliability
From 8 years of data (4 years prior/post PBN)• Probability of diverting due weather
reduced by 17.2%
In 2016, • 190 jets arrived in the relevant weather
conditions• 33 Diversions avoided
Annual SavingsAvoided flight time (hours): 82Fuel (kg): 215,000 Direct costs: (NZ$) 776,000Passenger time (hours) : 24,000
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
PBN: Improves safety, reliability, efficiency, capacity
Safety Reduced risk on landing approach
Reliability Continue to land in more adverse weather
Efficiency Shorter flight paths save time and fuel
Capacity Separated traffic flows enable growth
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
• PBN procedures are designed with a shorter final approach (X)
• The flight distance saved depends on the relative direction of runway and flight origin
X
Saving = 0
Saving = X
Saving = 2X
PBN approaches save flight timeEfficiency
OriginalPBN
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
• Top of descent occurs earlier on shorter flights
• The time, fuel, and cost savings occur in cruise conditions
Distance saved
Distance
Hei
ght
PBN approaches save cruise flight timeEfficiency
Origin Destination
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
• Modelled for future PBN programme
• Measured from surveillance data for Auckland
PBN flight path reduction benefitsEfficiency
Computed for all runways, routes, and aircraft using 2016 data
Value of savings
Approach path
change
Route direction
Aircraft type
Route traffic
volume
Weather
Operating costs
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
PBN flight path reduction benefitsEfficiency
Annual Impact
Instrument approaches 115,607
Visual approaches (excluded) 23,017
Average flight path reduction 2.26 nm
Annual flight time saved 1,100 hours
Fuel savings 999,000 kg
CO2 emissions reduction 3,148,000 kg
Avoided operating costs 2.1 M NZ$
Passenger time saved 76,467 hours
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
Y RWY 23LY RWY 05R
X RWY 05RX RWY 23L
U RWY 23L
ILSRWY 05R
ILS RWY 23L
PBN flight path reductionEfficiency
COMPAREPBN Outcomes
Counterfactual (what would
otherwise happen)
• Auckland approaches measured from surveillance data
• Compare actual flight paths with reference baseline
• Exclude non-PBN factors such as congestion due to demand/capacity imbalance
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
• Trial 2012-2013
• Amended procedures in production from late May 2015
• Flight distance saved often > 12nm
PBN flight path reductionEfficiency
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
• Reference period without northern PBN approaches
• Compare with similar period when PBN approaches are in use
PBN flight path reductionEfficiency
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
Y RWY 23LY RWY 05R
X RWY 05RX RWY 23L
U RWY 23L
ILSRWY 05R
ILS RWY 23L
PBN flight path reductionEfficiency
Annual Impact
Flight time saved 88.3 hours
Fuel savings 335,000 kg
CO2 emissions reduction 1,070,000 kg
Avoided operating costs 482,000 NZ$
Passenger time saved 13,800 hours
• Max 10 movements/day on new approaches
• Annual 12% increase in traffic at Auckland
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
PBN efficiency gains continue during high traffic periods
Despite significant traffic growth:
• Most flights have little delay even at peak periods
• PBN approaches continue to be used during high arrival rates
Efficiency
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
PBN: Improves safety, reliability, efficiency, capacity
Safety Reduced risk on landing approach
Reliability Continue to land in more adverse weather
Efficiency Shorter flight paths save time and fuel
Capacity Separated traffic flows enable growth
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
PBN reduces congestion at QueenstownCapacity
• PBN refresh 15 November 2012• Separated arrival and departure flows• This enables sustained inbound traffic at peak times• Capacity is increased, enabling growth
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
• Peak flow rate unchanged
• Traffic growing at peak times
• Greatest traffic volume growth is international in winter
Year International Arriving Flights
International Passengers
2012 852 215,300
2016 1951 508,902
Increase 128% 136%
Capacity
Mahino ResearchNew Southern Sky PBN Benefits Assessment
Questions
Thank you
Tim HughesMahino [email protected]+64 22 604 5294