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Arab Political Demography Development, Resources, and Demography in the Middle East: Is Oil Destroying the Arab world?. Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78. Introduction. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Arab Political DemographyDevelopment, Resources, and Demography in the Middle East: Is Oil Destroying the Arab world?Patrick BuckleyDept. Envr Studies: Geography

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78

  • IntroductionStart combining demographics with migration, religion, linguistics, culture, economics, and potential global security issues

  • Some QuestionsIs there an Arab World? Is this term based on a Formal, Functional, or Vernacular Region?Does it relate to the Muslim World?

  • As a Linguistic Region

  • Arab World Linguistically DefinedNote how this is the heart of Islam, but not all or even most of Islam.Critical thinking: Would this be a formal, functional, or vernacular region?

  • ResultYes, seems fairly unified it shares a common characteristic (formal region)

  • As a Historical Region

  • Arab World Historically DefinedThe Arab empire that extended into Europe until 1491Critical thinking: Would this be a formal, functional, or vernacular region?

  • ResultPerhaps, over about 1,400 years a number of empires have unified this region, but not all were controlled by Arabs.Each of these empires would also be a formal region

  • As a Religous Region

  • With few exceptions Islam is a result of Arab Expansion/Trade

  • ResultDepends, Islam certainly dominates but it has branches and there are also some minority religions including branches of Christianity.Still a formal region, but note the fuzzy borders as Islam as a % varies.

  • Religious % in Arab League

  • As a Political Region

  • Today The Arab World Politically Defined the Arab League

  • Algeria BahrainComorosDjiboutiEgyptIraqJordanKuwaitLebanon LibyaMauritania MoroccoOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSomaliaSudanSyriaTunisiaU.A.EYemen

    The Arab League - The League of Arab States Arab League, informal name of the League of Arab States, a voluntary association of independent countries whose peoples are mainly Arabic speaking. Its stated purposes are to strengthen ties among the member states, coordinate their policies, and promote their common interests.FACTS OVERVIEW Founded: 1945 Headquarters: Cairo, Egypt Key players: Egypt, Saudi Arabia

  • How does this compare to the US?Note this crude map contains only part of the Arab League, plus two non-Arab League state.But it should get you thinking!!!Turkey not ArabIran not Arab

  • USAPopulation: 314 million (US Census Bureau estimate, 2012) Capital: Washington D.C. Area: 3.8 million sq miles Major language: English Major religion: Christianity Life expectancy: 75 years (men), 80 years (women) (UN) Arab LeagueFounded: 1945 Population: 340 million (approx. 2007) Headquarters: Cairo, Egypt Area: 5.25 million square miles Key players: Egypt, Saudi Arabia Members: 22 members including Palestine Major language: ArabicLife Expectancy: Varies generally approaches 70 years for menMore Direct Comparison

  • Conclusion of ComparisonToday the Arab League population is bigger than the US25 years from now its could be 50% greater than the USQuestion How unified is this region? How well does it exist as a Formal rather than merely Vernacular Region.

  • ResultOn paper there is a single group, but it is of limited use, much like the Organization of American States for North and South America

  • As a Unified Region

  • Variations on the Western Fringe:Note that Turks, Kurds, and Persians are not ArabsHow unified is this region?

  • Note Shia Locations and ProportionsWinckler (2005) notes that most if not all Arab nations have missing religious and ethnic data to hide/ignore problematic data inside their countries Click here for examples:http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/globalconnections/mideast/maps/final_maps_soc.swf

    Inside there are variations.

  • Examples of Hidden Information

    CountryWhat it has to hideLebanonReligious differences not measured since 1932SyriaReligious differences not measured since 1960JordonEthnic differences not measured since 1948S. ArabiaTotal population counts questionable, no religious dataEgyptUndercounts Coptic ChristiansBahrainSunni Royal Family undercounts Shi'a majorityQatarWith an estimate of 73% Foreigners, such data not measured

  • UnemploymentNo Arab state seems to accurately report unemploymentFor example S. Arabia has claimed about 10% when reality could be as high as 20 to 30%.(recent Wall Street Journal put it even higher)See http://www.indexmundi.com/saudi_arabia/unemployment_rate.html

  • How does this relate to Oil/Gas?Again do we have an Arab World or a couple of worlds? Oil and Non-oil?In general many Arab countries with the largest populations have the least oil.

  • As an Economic Region

  • http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/colombia/images/map04.gif Two oil centers in Arab Region

    Oil Reserves (Gb)CountryGbOPEC NationsSaudi Arabia261.8Iraq112.5United Arab Emirates97.8Kuwait96.5Iran89.7Venezuela77.8Libya29.5Nigeria24Qatar15.2Algeria9.2Indonesia5Non-OPEC NationsCanada180Russia60United States22.4Mexico12.6Norway10.2Oman5.5United Kingdom4.7Egypt3.7Gb = Billion barrels. "Oil and Gas Journal" 2003 Figures used by the Energy Information Administration.

  • Saudi ArabiaOman United Arab EmiratesBahrainKuwaitQatarThe Gulf Cooperation Council, created in response to the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war, established the Gulf Standards Organization in November 1982 and the Gulf Investment Corporation in 1984. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): the oil & gas rich

  • Oil Reserves (Gb)CountryGbGCCOPEC NationsSaudi Arabia261.8YUnited Arab Emirates97.8YKuwait96.5YLibya29.5Qatar15.2YAlgeria9.2Non-OPEC NationsOman5.5YEgypt3.7

  • If Iraq were to join the GCC then the vast majority of world oil reserves would be controlled by this group.

  • A resultWealth and jobs have become highly concentrated in the region around the Gulf resulting in large scale migration into the Gulf area.GCC states have favored pro-natalist (pro-birth) policies even as Non-Oil states have started moving towards anti-natalist policies, why?

  • Population in 2000Nationals ............ 20 millionNon-nationals . 10 million

  • Note how many 30-35 year old Saudis there are and how many non-nationals

  • As a Demographic Region

  • 4 patterns emerge: (1) low growth regions, (2)slowing regions, (3) oil rich regions, and (4) least developed regions (not on chart).123

  • ResultSome argue that the Arab world is splitting into these 4 different parts with following results

  • Most recent 2011

    2011 EstimatesCountryTFRNRILebanon1.781.04%Egypt2.691.70%Saudi Arabia2.741.90%Yemen5.092.30%Somalia6.322.90%

  • Additional ResultsSlow growth areas will join developed nationsSlowing areas will face possible instability and hope to supply Europe and the GCC with labor

  • Possible Results3. The GCC hopes to grow enough labor to oust outsiders, but as population momentum grows, energy resources will decline too many for too little?4. The backward not developing areas will continue to fuel regional and world instability

  • Somalia???

  • Final ConclusionsThere are a number of factors suggesting a unified Arab World, butDifferences in resources and resulting economies has resulted in different demographic patters and policy and thus possible futures Oil wealth seems to be causing more differentiation rather than unity between Arab states

  • Study QuestionsIs there an Arab World? How many different ways did we look at this and what is the evidence for or against?In your opinion is the pro-natal policies of the Gulf states a good thing or a bad thing?If the Arab World was unified, could it rival the US? Explain.

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