Pathways Towards Sustainableand Profitable Fisheries

Rainer Froese

IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germanyrfroese@ifm-geomar.de

FC-UBC, 08 March 20111

Overview

• Some definitions

• Global status of stocks

• European Stocks and Fisheries

• Current Work

• Conclusions

• Discussion

2

Some Definitions

• Stocks are the exploited part of populations• Biomass (B) refers to the sum of body weights of

mature individuals (= spawning stock biomass)• MSY is the maximum sustainable yield or catch• F is the fraction of the stock dying from fishing (=

fishing mortality)

• Fmsy is the F that produces MSY at the stock size Bmsy (less if the stock is smaller, more if it is larger)

• TAC is the total allowable catch per year per stock

3

Global Status of Fish Stocks

4

• Global catches can increase 40% under effective management

• Subsidies (27 billion) exceed value added

• Commercial stocks are headed towards collapse under current management

5

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996

Years

Pe

rce

nt

of

Wo

rld

Fis

he

rie

s

26%5.1 years

38%

4.3 years

31%5.0 years

22%4.1 years

Undeveloped

Developing

Fully exploited

Overfished

Collapsed

?

Froese and Kesner-Reyes, ICES 20026

Out of Current Stocks in 2048 ?Worm et al., Science 2006

Sto

cks

(%)

2048 ?7

Rainer FroeseAmanda Stern-PirlotKathleen Kesner-Reyes

• The global number and percentage of stocks producing less than 10% of their maximum landings continues to increase

• New stocks are getting less, approaching zero after 2020

8

Froese et al. Marine Policy 20099

Froese et al. Marine Policy 200910

European Stocks and Fisheries

Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR11

NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FECUNDITY AND ANNUAL REPRODUCTIVE RATE IN BONY FISH

Rainer FROESE, Susan LUNAACTA ICHTHYOLOGICA ET PISCATORIA (2004) 34 (1): 11–20

Maximum annual reproductive rate versus mean (solid dots) and minimum (open dots) annual fecundity.

12

Fish and Fisheries, 2004, 5, 86–91

Keep it simple: three indicators to deal with overfishingRainer Froese

13

• Reducing catch to Fmsy is good but insufficient

• Stock size may increase seven-fold if fish are caught after multiple spawning, at around 2/3 of their maximum length

• Large stock size means low cost of fishing14

Age-structure of North Sea Cod, with same catch but different minimum size

For a given catch, the impact on the stock is least if fishare caught at Lopt

Current

Fmsy

Fmsy & Lopt

15

Same catch, better age structure

Stock size can increaseseven-fold

16

• The Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1982) requires stock sizes that can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY)

• Johannesburg (2002) gave the political goal of 2015

• With ‘business as usual’ Europe will miss this goal by more than 30 years

17

Rebuilding European Fish Stocks

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Year

Mea

n s

tock

siz

e

TargetPrecautionary

Overfished

Unsafe

Trend

Average size of 54 European fish stocks (bold blue line). The upper arrow indicates the path, if 75% of the stocks were to reach the internationally agreed target in 2015. The lower arrow shows the current trend.

Froese et al. Fish & Fisheries 2010

18

Fishing Pressure on European Fish Stocks

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Year

Fis

hin

g p

ress

ure

(F/F

msy

)

TargetPrecautionary

Overfishing

TrendThreatening the stock

Average fishing pressure on 54 European fish stocks. The lower arrow indicates the path if 75% of the stocks were to be fished at the maximum sustainable rate in 2015. However, with the current trend that target will be

missed by more than 30 years. Froese et al. Fish & Fisheries 2010

UNCLOS CFP FAO/UNFAS JPOI Damanaki

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In Press

• CFP contains over 600 regulations, some contradictory, without efficient control• CFP aims for smallest instead of optimal stock size• Annual horse-trading leads to overfishing and uncertainty• The precautionary principle is perverted• Subsidies waste taxpayers money and create and maintain overcapacity

20

Harvest Control Rules for Future Fisheries

Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR21

Generic Harvest Control Rules for European FisheriesRainer Froese, Trevor A. Branch, Alexander Proelß, Martin Quaas, Keith Sainsbury & Christopher Zimmermann

Under review

• Rules for sustainable and profitable fisheries based on 1) economic optimization of fisheries 2) honoring international agreements 3) true implementation of the precautionary principle 4) learning from international experiences 5) ecosystem-approach to fisheries management 6) recognizing the biology of European fish stocks

• If these rules were applied, catches could increase by 63%

22

Harvest Control Rule Schema

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Biomass / B msy

Ca

tch

/ M

SY

B msy0.5 B msy 1.3 B msy

DepletedZone

OverfishingZone

BufferZone

TargetZone

MSY

0.91 MSY

23

Fisheries in 2007

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Biomass / B msy

Cat

ch /

MS

Y

B msy0.5 B msy 1.3 B msy

24

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

Spawner Biomass (1000 t)

Lan

din

gs

(100

0 t)

1960

1960

1962

19621967

1967

1977

1978

1978

1.3 B msy

North Sea Herring 1960 - 1978

25

North Sea-Herring 1979 - 2008

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Spawner Biomass (1000 t)

Lan

din

gs

(100

0 t)

2008

2008

1985

1985 1987

1983

20032003

1979

1.3 B msy

1987

26

Critique of Planned F-based Management

• Fmsy is taken as target, not limit, thus violating UNFSA and the precautionary principle

• Fishing at Fmsy is less profitable than at Fmey • Fishing at Fmsy results in substantially smaller

stocks, violating the ecosystem approach• Fishing at Fmsy results in strongly fluctuating

catches with high uncertainty for the industry• Fishing at Fmsy provides strong incentives for

overcapacity• Fishing at TAC = 0.9 MSY solves these

problems 27

ICES F-based Mangement

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2

Biomass / B msy

F /

Fm

sy o

r C

atch

/ M

SY

B msyB pa

F

Catch

28

North Sea Herring Once More

0

200

400

600

800

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

Spawner Biomass (1000 t)

Lan

din

gs

(100

0 t)

19601971 1967

1966

1977

1978

1978

B msy

F -based HCR

Proposed HCR

F-based Management would not have prevented the collapse of herring. 29

Profits in Fisheries

30

Making a Miracle Come True: Three Options for Rebuilding the Cod Stock in the Eastern Baltic Sea

Submitted as Point of View (AISI) to MEPSRainer Froese and Martin Quaas

• Due to several lucky coincidences, the eastern Baltic cod stock is recovering

• Here we look at options for management to fully rebuild the stock and make the fishery highly profitable

31

Simulated catches for the eastern Baltic cod resulting from four different management options. The dotted horizontal line indicates the maximum sustainable yield (MSY). 32

Simulated spawning stock biomass (SSB) of the eastern Baltic cod, resulting from four different management options. The dotted horizontal line shows the biomass that would produce the maximum sustainable yield (Bmsy).

33

Simulated profits for the eastern Baltic cod resulting from four different management options.

34

Current Work

• Regarding not-taken catches as highly profitable investment in the resource

• Evaluating status of MSC-certified stocks

• Practical approaches to data-poor stock assessment and management

35

Conclusions

• Rebuilding healthy stocks and fisheries is possible, sometimes even without pain for the fishers

• Reducing fishing effort alone is not enough, mean size in catch needs to be increased in addition

• Profits from healthy fisheries can be much higher then currently, making subsidies unnecessary

• `Pain-less´ paths towards profitable fisheries exist

36

Thank You

Questions?

Rainer Froese

rfroese@ifm-geomar.de

37