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I t seems like only yesterday that the newly electedPresident Barack Obama strode onto the well guardedstage in Grant Park, Chicago, to deliver his victory

speech. The bright lighting in the park and the general feel-ing in the air as conveyed by TV camera shots of membersof the crowd, including a teary-eyed Oprah Winfrey leaningon a stranger, made us all feel that this was a historicmoment. The first African American had just been electedpresident of the United States of America.

The world listened as the young president-elect beganhis delivery and soon reminded the crowd that “this victo-ry alone is not the change we seek.” He went on to describea need for a “new spirit of service, a new spirit of sacrifice”and reiterated his campaign commitment to “healing divi-sions” and bringing about a “new dawn of American leader-ship at home and around the globe.” He closed by repeatinghis campaign slogan, “Yes we can!” It was heady stuff.

On January 20, 2009, the inauguration of BarackObama occurred in a setting where the level of anticipationin the crowd could not have been greater and the hopescould not have been higher on a cold, sunny day. The

nation was caught up in the euphoria of change, and thebelief that a new generation of leadership was emerging.After eight years of the “war on terror,” two wars beingwaged in Iraq and Afghanistan, a near repeat of the 1930sGreat Depression, it seemed like a cathartic moment and theadvent of a transformational presidency. Shortly after, voterapproval of the new administration hovered in the high60s. America was on a new voyage, so we thought.

It has been nearly two years since Obama won a deci-sive victory, not only in the Electoral College but also forthe Democratic Party in Congress. This had all the ingredi-ents for an activist presidency: a clear mandate for change,an ambitious agenda and the means to accomplish it.However, things have not quite worked out as anticipated.On the eve of this year’s midterm elections, PresidentObama’s approval ratings have fallen to the mid-40s. Thebest prognosticators in the business (Charles Cook andStuart Rothenberg) are predicting massive losses forDemocrats, with a majority of pundits going as far as to con-cede the House of Representatives to the Republican Party.The Senate may still be a possibility for the GOP.

OBAMA: FROM ATRANSFORMATIONAL TO ATRANSACTIONAL PRESIDENTJohn Parisella

Two years after his historic election as America’s first nonwhite president, BarackObama faces a reckoning in the midterm congressional elections. It remains to beseen if he can limit the losses sitting presidents normally face at mid-mandate, andit must also be acknowledged that he inherited a very bad economy and fiscalframework, to say nothing of two wars, from George W. Bush. But by now, Obamaowns both the economy and the war in Afghanistan. Elected as a transformationalleader, his prospects for re-election could be determined by his ability to become atransactional one. John Parisella, from his post as Quebec’s delegate general in NewYork, looks back over the last two years and ahead to the next two.

Deux ans après son élection historique en tant que premier président de couleur, undur retour à la réalité attend peut-être Barack Obama aux élections de mi-mandat.Reste à voir s’il pourra limiter les pertes normalement subies à cette occasion par lesprésidents en poste. Pour faire bonne mesure, on rappellera que Georges W. Bushlui a légué une économie en lambeaux, un cadre financier en piteux état et deuxguerres interminables. Mais il n’en porte pas moins aujourd’hui l’entièreresponsabilité de l’économie ainsi que du conflit afghan. Délégué général duQuébec à New York, John Parisella dresse le bilan de ces deux années et anticipe lesdeux prochaines. Élu en tant que leader transformationnel, sa réélection pourraitdépendre de sa capacité de se muer en leader transactionnel, écrit-il.

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T o be fair, history records that vot-ers are not kind to presidents dur-

ing mid-terms, as Gil Troy points outelsewhere in these pages. Since the endof the Second World War, only GeorgeW. Bush and Bill Clinton (1998) wereable to improve their party’s standingat the midterm elections, and that canbe attributed to the effects of 9/11 forBush, and to voter disenchantmentwith impeachment proceedings forClinton. All other presidents since FDR

saw their party lose seats. Over the past17 midterms, the average loss in theHouse of Representatives is 28 seatsand 4 in the Senate; is the latter num-ber being attributed to the fact thatonly one-third of the Senate is at eachstake at election time.

Despite the odds of history work-ing against an incumbent president inthe midterm showdown, what is par-ticularly noticeable is the changingmood of the country since Obamaspoke on that Chicago night ofNovember 4, 2008. It became obviousin a short period that the Americanvoters were more preoccupied withtheir economic security than with his-tory making or the promises of theirnew leader. Over 7 million jobs hadbeen lost since the recession of 2007began, with many homeowners facingforeclosures, as the length of unem-ployment was increasing as neverbefore since the Great Depression;there were also persistent fears of ameltdown of the financial system.

It soon became evident that voterpatience had its limits and Americanswanted “Obama the president” to pro-vide a quick solution on jobs and theeconomy rather than listening to“Obama the candidate” pushing anarray of different issues from health

care to climate change. As Democraticstrategist James Carville so aptly saidin another time (1992): “It’s the econ-omy, stupid.”

E ven the most rabid detractors ofBarack Obama admit that he has

been an activist president — and hasdelivered results in an extremely chal-lenging political environment.Conservative columnist CharlesKrauthammer recently cautioned the

Republicans not to underestimateObama. It is difficult to find a more sub-stantial legislative record in the first 18months of a presidency since the days ofRoosevelt. If anything, this presidenttook on too much, may have communi-cated too little and, by delegating to hiscongressional leaders the details of hissignature legislation, disappointed someof his political base. As he indicated in hisinaugural address, he committed to tack-le the economic problems facing thenation, initiate stronger regulationsregarding the financial system and itssecurity, offer possible relief for the mid-dle class, reform education and healthcare, fight for energy independence andclimate change provisions, work to endnuclear proliferation, wind down the warin Iraq, combat the continuing threat ofterror and reduce the tension in theMiddle East. This was quite an agenda helaid out at a time of great economicuncertainty, and a risky one at that.

But politics is not always pre-dictable or certain. It was not longbefore Obama had to deal with theSomali pirates’ takeover of anAmerican vessel on the high seas, andcases of homegrown terrorism wereadded for good measure. The BP oilspill in the Gulf of Mexico confrontedthe President with the worst environ-

mental disaster in US history, side-tracking his agenda for several weeks.Policy intentions are one thing, but inthe real world, stuff happens.

This has not been an easy presi-dency and the slow economic recov-ery has done nothing to make it easier.The case for health care reform, withthe promise of bringing costs downand providing economic security,would have been easier to make ifunemployment had not been at 9.5

percent. By most accounts,this is a historic accom-plishment when comparedwith the efforts over thepast century by variouspresidents. Yet Democratsand Obama will be the firstto concede that this majorreform has given very littlebounce to their approval

numbers, despite the magnitude ofthe reform.

T he first and most symbolic legisla-tive achievement of the adminis-

tration had to do with the economy.Congress passed the American Recoveryand Reinvestment Act (ARRA) the stim-ulus plan with a price tag of over $800billion involving middle-class taxrelief, infrastructure revitalization anddevelopment, investing in emergingsectors (such as green energy) andhelping state and local governmentsto preserve services. In signing the leg-islation, the administration predictedit would result in bringing unemploy-ment down to 8 percent. It has not.Debates have since raged on betweenthose on the left, like noted economistPaul Krugman, saying it was notenough, to those on the right sayingthat it was wasteful spending, bring-ing the return of big government anda high unemployment rate. Theincreased deficit, the slow job recov-ery and the rise of the Tea Party (apopulist, fiscally conservative libertar-ian movement) appeared to tip thescales in favour of the opponents andcritics of the stimulus package, if wejudge by opinion polls going into themidterms.

Obama: From a transformational to a transactional president

It was not long before Obama had to deal with the Somalipirates’ takeover of an American vessel on the high seas, andcases of homegrown terrorism were added for good measure.The BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico confronted the Presidentwith the worst environmental disaster in US history,sidetracking his agenda for several weeks. Policy intentionsare one thing but in the real world, stuff happens.

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In truth, the majority of conserva-tive and liberal economists recognizethat ARRA may have saved over 2 mil-lion jobs and probably prevented adeeper recession, possibly anotherGreat Depression. Nine months of pri-vate sector job creation, however, isnot convincing enough when nearly

one in six Americans is unemployed orunderemployed, and many have beenout of work for over 24 months.

A nother major challenge facingthe Obama dministration had to

do with financial regulation. Sincethe rise to power of the conservativemovement in the United States,deregulation of the financial sectorhas become a buzzword. Even Demo-cratic President Clinton bought intoit, with the result that he agreed toabolish in 1999 the Glass-SteagallAct, which had successfully regulatedthe financial sector since the days ofFDR and the Great Depression. In thesummer of 2010, Obama succeededin signing the most wide-ranging actto regulate the financial sector sincethe 1930s despite strong oppositionfrom the Republican Party and WallStreet. The tangible impact on thevoter remains marginal, however.

There have been three areas whereObama was able to achieve bipartisansupport: education, the Iraq war andthe Troubled Assets Relief Program(TARP). Obama has succeeded inbringing the two parties in sync andhas garnered kudos regarding educa-tion and his Race to the Top program.Even ideological conservatives haveapplauded his moves to improveschools. And with respect to the war inIraq, he fulfilled his promise of with-drawing all combat troops by August

31, 2010. While each political partytook credit, both agreed with theremoval of combat troops.

On the question of TARP bailouts,which began in 2008 under the Bushadministration and continued underthe Obama administration in the finan-cial and auto sectors, few in the politi-

cal class doubted their necessity. Mostof the money invested in the financialand the auto sectors has been paidback, and both have shown a resur-gence. General Motors will soon be pri-vatized after the government takeoverof 2009. Despite some real success,however, the voter remains very skepti-cal about the wisdom of the bailouts.

Despite various significantachievements, critics have a pointwhen they assert that the currentpolitical context has not producedthe basic premise of the Obama can-didacy: heal the divisions and changehow politics is conducted.Republicans have consciously actedwith the discipline of a party in a par-liamentary system and have been sys-tematic in their tactics and in theiropposition. There has been no bipar-tisanship on the major initiatives ofObama. Democrats have also dug intheir heels and have consequentlylabelled their opponents as obstruc-tionists and the “party of no.”Meanwhile, the rise of the Tea Partyhas scared away Republican moder-ates, with some moderate incumbentsbeing challenged and defeated in pri-maries. This insurgency within theGOP does not augur well for a changeof the political climate.

Finally, on the matter of perform-ance, whether you agree with him ornot, Obama has kept many of hispromises. Some on the left are disap-

pointed, but they did get some impor-tant reforms. The conservative move-ment has been emboldened with theactive support of individuals like TVpersonality Glenn Beck and the FoxNews Network. As a result, the reviewson Obama’s performance can be quali-fied as mixed. The general assessment

two years into the job canbe summed up as significantand promising in terms ofachievement, but still awork in progress.

O bama’s detractors havespoken of the one-

term presidency. Supportersspeak of a president who

was dealt a nearly impossible hand andis turning things around. The attackswill continue to be virulent, with the2012 election only two years away.Some Democrats have openly dis-tanced themselves from the Presidentin this election cycle, and many haveshown a decided reluctance to defendthe reforms brought in. But this shouldbe temporary. The Republicans haverevived the discourse against big gov-ernment, and the old conservativemantra from Ronald Reagan that “gov-ernment is not the solution, govern-ment is the problem” has resurfaced. Inaddition, Representative Paul Ryan(Wisconsin) and a few others havemade cogent proposals for dealing withthorny long-term issues like the reformof Medicare and Social Security. AfterNovember 2010, they will be focusingon presidential politics.

Three major issues will remain atthe top of the political agenda after theNovember mid-terms: immigrationreform, energy/climate change legisla-tion and entitlement reform. All seemstalled by the election season, wherepolarization, fear and gridlock domi-nate the political discourse. But, like itor not, the fact that between 12 millionand 20 million inhabitants are consid-ered illegal will not go away. Nor willmanmade global warming disappear.And the issue of dependence on for-eign sources of energy will continue toaffect both domestic and foreign

John Parisella

The majority of conservative and liberal economists recognizethat ARRA may have saved over 2 million jobs and probablyprevented a deeper recession, possibly another GreatDepression. Nine months of private sector job creation,however, is not convincing enough when nearly one in sixAmericans is unemployed or underemployed, and many havebeen out of work for over 24 months.

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policy. With the entitlement programstaking a greater share of governmentspending and bringing pressure ondeficit and debt, expect this subject tobe front and centre after November.These difficult issues have obvious ide-ological currents, but they could pro-vide opportunities for the two partiesto find solutions. Voters will becomeimpatient if they observe deliberatepolitical gridlock on issues affectingtheir daily lives.

We know midterms are primarilyabout local issues. This cycle will notbe any different. But in 2012, it is fairto say, Obama will own the economyas an issue as well as the wars abroad.While foreign policy has not played abig role with the electorate in the firsttwo years, it is probable that this areacould have greater impact by 2012.

O bama’s foreign policy team, led bySecretary of State Hillary Clinton,

has been methodical and efficient andhas some promising possibilities on the

horizon. The current talks betweenIsrael and Palestine may be fragile, butthey are a step forward, coming so earlyin the Obama presidency. The sanctionson Iran are starting to have some impactbut its nuclear ambitions remain a ques-tion mark. Here American diplomacyhas not been alone, with China andRussia on board with the sanctions. TheNew START treaty has a solid chance forratification, once the election is over.And lest we forget, Obama remainshighly popular abroad, and the appreci-ation for the change in tone in US diplo-macy is a welcome development aroundthe globe.

Should the predictions of aRepublican resurgence in Congresscome true, the big question will be: CanObama operate with substantiallyreduced majorities, or the loss of onehouse or two after November? Clearly,whatever the outcome, he will not be inas advantageous a position as he was in2008. How effective, then, will the so-called bully pulpit be when he will have

to depend more on the mood of votersthan on votes in Congress to influencethe Republicans, who are likely to beemboldened by the gains made inNovember?

This will be one more test forObama. His resilience in adversity, hiscapacity to rebound and his characteris-tic coolness will face greater challengesand pressures than ever in his politicalcareer as he prepares for his final electioncampaign. The mood in America is any-where from morose to sour, and in theshort term, the one political figure whocan best impact this climate is thePresident. In a curious way, Obama’sappeal in 2008 was the possibility of atransformational presidency, but his suc-cess in 2012 may well depend on howgood a transactional president he can be.

John Parisella, former chief of staff toPremiers Robert Bourassa and DanielJohnson in Quebec, was a volunteer inthe Obama campaign in 2008. He is nowdelegate general of Quebec in New York.

Obama: From a transformational to a transactional president

Michelle and Barack Obama with their daughters at Obama’s inauguration as the 44th president of the United States.January 20, 2009, was a bright and crisp day in which hope and change were in the air.

CP Photo