oregon’s demographic trends...approaches. 7. sustainability results from mobilizing community...

Population data

Culture, Race, Sex, Age

Oregon’s Demographic Trends

Population of Oregon: 1950-2020

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Oregon’s population was 3,831,074 in April 2010; it’s expected to reach 4.3 million by 2020 with a projection of 5.4 million by 2040.

Oregon’s: Projected Life Expectancy at Birth

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In the past 40 years: Life expectancy for men

has improved by 8.7 years.

Life expectancy for women has improved by 5.5 years.

While life expectancy continues to improve, the difference between men and women will continue to shrink.

Adult Population – Age 18-64

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Age: 18-25 Slowed down and soon to show negative

growth in the future. Age: 25-44 Growth remained at a slower rate than the

overall state. Age:45-64 The slow and negative growth of 25-44 age

group transferred to this group as the baby-boomers mature into retirement age.

Oregon’s Shift

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Aging in Oregon – (55-64 ) In 2000, twenty-seven out of the thirty-six counties in Oregon have larger proportions of men and women (55-64) than we see at the state level:

16.55% in Wheeler County 14.22% in Curry County

Oregon’s Shift

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In 2006, the very large population of people 55 and older 39.82% Wheeler County 29.28% Sherman County 30.39 % Gilliam County

Aging in Oregon – (65 and over) Aging in Oregon - In 2000 - 26 out of the 36 counties in Oregon had higher percentages of people age 65 and older than the state. 2000 – 12.8%, 2030 - 18.25%.

Oregon’s Shift

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The three counties with the highest shares of people

over 65 were in rural areas Josephine County with 20.12% Wheeler County with 23.27% Curry County with 26.63%

Elderly Population 2020– Age 65-85

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Age: 65-74 Increasingly growing Close to 500,000 seniors Age: 75 – 84 Show some decline, but see rapid growth and will increase by 35% Age: 85+ During the next decade this population will increase by 17%.

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Year 2040Area Total 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+Oregon Total 5,425,408 337,313 297,787 268,516 235,769 208,589 171,551 213,094Washington County 920,852 46,986 43,468 41,159 35,428 28,695 22,035 26,816Multnomah County 842,009 50,498 50,604 48,271 40,637 32,495 25,462 28,600Clackamas County 620,703 40,130 29,730 24,654 21,706 20,046 17,231 22,074Lane County 471,511 28,932 26,096 23,409 20,225 18,698 16,167 22,050Marion County 448,671 26,460 23,786 20,732 18,344 15,770 12,440 14,528Jackson County 297,496 20,295 17,286 15,568 14,009 13,523 11,604 15,072Deschutes County 257,088 19,354 18,646 17,838 14,925 12,729 10,356 11,644Yamhill County 166,776 11,341 9,955 6,937 6,383 5,619 4,414 4,926Linn County 146,260 8,585 7,488 6,932 6,383 5,962 4,901 6,379Douglas County 140,619 10,420 8,491 7,453 7,164 7,045 6,545 8,519Polk County 135,937 8,834 7,210 4,624 4,139 3,826 3,186 4,552Josephine County 117,216 8,666 7,087 6,803 6,557 6,488 5,473 7,253Umatilla County 106,149 6,495 5,343 4,684 4,106 3,682 2,861 3,457Benton County 99,886 5,959 5,340 4,644 3,736 3,420 2,993 4,096Klamath County 80,159 4,918 4,403 4,002 3,501 3,272 2,699 3,464Coos County 64,839 4,532 3,909 3,899 3,756 3,912 3,426 4,393Columbia County 64,411 4,287 3,147 3,185 3,212 3,017 2,480 2,764Lincoln County 57,247 4,787 4,196 4,036 3,687 3,397 2,844 3,506Malheur County 44,519 2,808 2,900 2,199 1,902 1,609 1,182 1,537Clatsop County 39,368 2,840 2,397 2,141 1,964 2,009 1,752 2,311Crook County 38,553 2,662 2,091 1,751 1,495 1,291 1,113 1,282Jefferson County 36,094 2,001 1,865 1,962 1,778 1,542 1,111 1,369Hood River County 32,498 1,839 1,603 1,587 1,349 1,187 1,030 1,400Tillamook County 32,146 2,640 2,193 1,966 1,896 1,832 1,535 2,029Union County 31,793 1,588 1,280 1,160 963 965 927 1,459Wasco County 28,653 1,719 1,528 1,354 1,279 1,252 1,132 1,459Curry County 23,432 1,669 1,389 1,436 1,628 1,712 1,495 2,046Morrow County 23,122 1,563 1,218 1,127 867 749 589 568Baker County 17,460 1,521 1,118 1,019 948 856 763 1,066Harney County 9,584 630 449 433 408 445 372 449Wallowa County 8,783 681 393 373 311 394 374 598Grant County 7,678 663 420 413 369 397 354 463Lake County 7,614 551 408 413 343 359 341 453Gilliam County 2,464 175 127 128 126 131 133 163Sherman County 2,165 156 116 115 126 163 151 203Wheeler County 1,652 129 109 108 122 104 82 149

Age Groups

Oregon’s Shift

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Population in Oregon is growing at a rapid rate: In 2010 - 3,831,074 2020 - 4.3 million 2040 – 5,425,408

People of color are growing : In 2010 - 21.5% 2020 expected 23.9%

Seniors (65-74) are growing: In 2010 - 300,000 2020 nearly 500,000

Oregon’s Shift

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LGBT – In 2012 adult estimate 4.9% .

Portland – 7th highest in the country - 8.8% homosexual metro area ranks 4th in the nation at 6.1%.

OWC – Decline in rural areas from 36% - 21% from 1950-2000

Oregon population by Race and Ethnicity 2012

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In 2012: 23.9% of people make up race or ethnic group. 12.2% Hispanic or Latino 4.4% Asian/Pacific

Islander 3.5% Two or More Races 2.0% African American 1.8% Native American

Ethnic groups as a whole in Oregon is growing at a fast pace.

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

2010

2012

Race/Ethnicity of Medicaid LTSS consumers

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60 (0.2%) 376 (1.4%) 519 (1.9%) 890 (3.2%) 961 (3.5%) (3.6%)1001

23936 (86.3%)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

PacificIslanders

AmericanIndian orAlaskanNative

Unknown AfricanAmerican

Hispanic Asian Caucasian

Race/Ethnicity in 3 LTSS settings

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53%

65%

56%

47% 53%

43% 35%

20%

32%

42%

33% 41%

12% 15% 12% 10% 14% 16%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Hispanic/Latino

AfricanAmerican

AI/AN Asian PacificIslander

Total

Distribution of APD clients Among 3 Long Term Services Settings, 2010*

In-Home Community Based Facilities Nursing Facilities

The Top 5 languages spoken by LTSS APD consumers

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English 148079 Spanish 4913 Russian 1887 Vietnamese 1666 Cantonese 828

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Aging & People with Disabilities

Review of Last Meeting

17


Review of Equality vs. Equity (Justice)


How to Achieve Equity (Justice)

• Working toward equal outcomes, not just equal access

• Learning what different groups/communities want (one size does NOT fit all)

• Strength-based approach

• Long-term partnerships

• True ENGAGEMENT

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Principles of Community Engagement

1. Be clear about the population/communities to be engaged and the goals of the effort.

2. Know the community, including its norms, history, and experience with engagement efforts.

3. Build trust and relationships and get the commitments from formal and informal leadership.

4. Collective self-determination is the responsibility and right of all community members.

5. Partnering with the community is necessary to create change and improve outcomes.

19


Principles of Community Engagement

6. Recognize and respect community cultures and other factors affecting diversity in designing and implementing approaches.

7. Sustainability results from mobilizing community assets and developing capacities and resources.

8. Be prepared to release control to the community and be flexible enough to meet its changing needs.

9. Community collaboration requires long-term commitment.

We can create standards/recommendations for APD that reflect these principles!

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Overview • Current Data and Initiatives

• Gaps in Understanding

• Future Work

21


Race/Ethnicity in 3 LTSS settings

53%

65% 56%

47% 53%

43% 35%

20%

32%

42% 33%

41%

12% 15% 12% 10% 14% 16%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Hispanic/Latino

AfricanAmerican

AI/AN Asian PacificIslander

Total

Distribution of APD clients Among 3 Long Term Services Settings, 2010*

In-Home Community Based Facilities Nursing Facilities

22


State of Equity Report - Phase 2

23


APD Breakthrough Measures Measure Calculation Red Yellow Green Target Data

Collection Frequency

Number of race/ethnic groupings that are over/under represented in comparison to their representation in the population as a whole. Only the population with the greatest disparity is reported - Non-Hispanic African American.

R <0.5:1 or

R>1.5:1

0.5<R>0.75or

1.25<R>1.5

0.75<R>1.25

R=1

Percent of nursing facil ity services by race/ethnicity in comparison to the long term care population as a whole. Only the population with the greatest disparity is reported - Non-Hispanic Asian.

R <0.5:1 or

R>1.5:1

0.5<R>0.75or

1.25<R>1.5

0.75<R>1.25

R=1

Percent of community based care services by race/ethnicity in comparison to the long term care population as a whole. Only the population with the greatest disparity is reported - Non-Hispanic African American .

R <0.5:1 or

R>1.5:1

0.5<R>0.75or

1.25<R>1.5

0.75<R>1.25

R=1

Percent of in-home services by race/ethnicity in comparison to the long term care population as a whole. Only the population with the greatest disparity is reported - Non-Hispanic African American.

R <0.5:1 or

R>1.5:1

0.5<R>0.75or

1.25<R>1.5

0.75<R>1.25

R=1

1.8

0.6

0.5

1.6

Q3 Status

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Challenges with Existing Data • We only have numbers; we don’t have thoughts

or ideas from populations. • We don’t know what the data means because

we’re unsure how to interpret it. • Our instinct is to be reactionary, but that

response is too simplistic. • Data is not granular enough and completely

misses some groups (LGBT, for example) • Bottom line: We need to step back and focus on

ENGAGEMENT, rather than just numbers 25


Engagement Model

Learn About Community

Engage Community Members

Conduct Focus

Groups

Community Survey

(Numbers)

Partner w/ Community for Policies/ Programs &

Eval.

26


Work Has Begun (DHS/APD)*

Community meetings with: • African American Community (1) • Eastern European Community (1) • Hispanic Community (2) • LGBT Community (3) • Somali Community (1)

27


Focus of Service Equity Subcommittee:

“Develop strategies to serve individuals equitably in a culturally and linguistically

responsive manner.”

- language from SB 21

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Fulfilling Our Responsibility:

• Create recommendations standards that guide all work done within APD.

o Broad recommendations

o Specific ideas

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Sample Timeline - Standards April • Discussion of ideas • Staff to create first draft based on themes May • Revise recommendations as a group • Staff to work on 2nd draft June • Second revision of standards • Staff to work on 3rd draft July • Final revisions to recommendations • Final draft – present to Steering Committee in August August • Take recommendations “on the road” for community feedback

and revise from there

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Additional Options:

1. Offer feedback on DHS/OHA REAL data proposed measures (DONE).

2. Work informing Service Equity Breakthrough measures for APD

3. Template for engagement of different communities (AoA Toolkit/Outreach)

4. Recommendations for additional staff/resources at field office level? (Investment in this work)

5. Other thoughts and ideas?

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oregon’s demographic trends...approaches. 7. sustainability results from mobilizing community...

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