Online Media Analysis of the 2010 FIFA World Cup

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    2010 FIFA World Cup South AfricaAn Analysis of Key Issues and Opinions Through Online Media

    March 2009

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    2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa

    Executive Summary

    South Africa is the first African nation chosen to host the FIFA

    World Cup

    The country plans to spend more than $ 3.7 Bn in preparation

    for the event and expects to gain a number of benefits

    including an upgrade to the countrys infrastructure, new job

    creation and higher tourist inflow as a result

    This study analyzes content on online media sources to gain

    insight into global perceptions about the 2010 World Cup and

    South Africa as the hosting nation

    Context

    The key issues being discussed on global online media

    sources are: security concerns in South Africa, infrastructure

    readiness for the event, impact on tourism in South Africa,

    and risk of political agitation at the event

    The most frequently discussed topic is concern about crime

    and personal safety, which many people expect will worsen

    during the event. This is seen as a big risk against the

    success of the 2010 World Cup

    Opinions on Infrastructure readiness are mixed. SouthAfricans express greater confidence that the nation will be

    ready relative to people from other geographies

    People across the world expect the 2010 World Cup to have a

    positive impact on tourism in the country as they believe that

    South Africa has a lot to offer

    There is also concern that the event could be used by

    activists for political agitation against regional crises such as

    the ongoing crisis in Zimbabwe Overall, Africans are more optimistic about the success of

    2010 World Cup vis--vis people outside of Africa

    Key Conclusions

    Our online media analysis reveals a number of concerns, shared globally, about the 2010 FIFA World Cup in SouthAfrica. As illustrated through case examples in this study, many of these concerns can be managed by engaging withthe public and stakeholders directly and through online media, leveraging traditional media, and employing PR firms

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    Table of Contents

    Introduction to Online Media Analysis

    2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa

    Introduction and Approach

    Analysis of Key Issues

    Case Studies on Managing Public Perceptions

    About Grail Research

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    Everyday People Talk and Listen to Each Other

    Through Online Media

    ONLINE

    COMMUNITIES

    PRODUCT

    REVIEWS

    BLOGSFORUMS

    EDUCATION SOCIAL

    NETWORKING

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    What Can Be Learned Through Online Media Analysis?

    1. Gain insight into public perception about an event /issue

    2. Deeper understanding of public perception on thebasis of regions or themes

    Provides organizations with:

    1. Immediate and real-time public reactions to an event /

    issue2. Most significant areas of public concern regarding an

    event / issue

    3. Longitudinal view of change in perception over time

    We have conducted several online media studies

    across sectors in the past :1. Analysis of user/expert opinions on a new web

    browser within the first week of its launch

    2. Analysis of user/expert opinions to gauge thesuccess/reception of a new mobile product

    3. Similar studies in other research areas includinghealthcare, beverages, automobiles, technology, etc.

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    Table of Contents

    Introduction to Online Media Analysis

    2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa

    Introduction and Approach

    Analysis of Key Issues

    Case Studies on Managing Public Perceptions

    About Grail Research

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    Note:1

    Conversion done using average monthly exchange rate of ZAR 1 = USD 0.13131 for August 2008Source: South Africa 2010 Website; Engineering News; South Africa Info Website; The Times of India; News 24; South Africa: The Good News

    South Africa is expected to have a number of developmental benefits through preparations forthe 2010 FIFA World Cup

    2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa

    Introduction

    South Africa will host the 19th FIFA World Cup in 2010

    This is the first time that an African country will host this prestigious event

    Context

    The event is driving the construction of five new stadiums and the renovation of five existing stadiums across nine cities

    at an expected cost of $ 1.36 Bn

    1

    (ZAR 10.4 Bn) An additional $ 1.2 Bn (ZAR 9 Bn) is expected to be spent on other infrastructure projects, including transportation

    Other expected improvements include security, telecommunications, health, recreation, arts and culture, etc.

    Preparatory Measures

    The numerous developmental activities being planned for the event are expected to have long-term benefits for SouthAfrica. Some of the benefits include:

    Improved transportation facilities and better security infrastructure

    Creation of temporary jobs and training opportunities for citizens

    For example, construction of the Green Point Stadium in Cape Town has led to the creation of 2,143 on-site jobsas of January 2009. Training has also been given to 1,179 artisans employed for the construction work

    About 400,000 foreign tourists are expected visit South Africa during the World Cup. It is estimated that an additional2 MM international tourists will visit the country between 2007 and 2015 as a result of increased exposure due to theWorld Cup

    Benefits

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    2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa

    Research Approach and Criteria (1 of 2)

    Executed research across blogs,discussion forums, newspapers,and magazines for comments,opinions and reviews related to the2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa

    Only English-based sources wereincluded in the research

    Objective: The study analyzes online media to evaluate public perception on South Africa as the 2010 FIFAWorld Cup hosting nation

    AnalyzeSearch Categorize

    Categorized comments, opinionsand reviews into different themes

    Iterated to refine these themes intofinal categories; namely, impact ontourism, infrastructure readiness,security concerns, and politicalagitation risk

    Analyzed data within each categoryfor interesting trends and insights

    Undertook additional research andanalysis on intriguing findings

    Developed case examples ofinitiatives by other countries tomanage public perception in similarsituations

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    Number of unique URLson the Web

    # of sources visitedand reviewed

    # of sourcesused for final

    analysis

    ~1MM**

    ~1,500

    55

    2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa

    Research Approach and Criteria (2 of 2)

    Criteria for short-listing information sources

    The key criteria for choosing information sources were:

    Latest information: ~ 85% of the chosen data sources were

    published post January 2008

    Types of sources: The selected sources covered opinion

    forums, blogs, news articles, etc. However, sources containing

    similar content (e.g., quoting official press releases) were

    considered only once

    ~1 Tr*

    Note: *Data as of July 2008 from Googles official blog; **Number estimated using Google search engine

    Of the thousands of available online media sources, 55 were short-listed based on theircoverage of key elements such as security, infrastructure, tourism, politics, etc.

    # of sources discussingWorld Cup 2010

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    Table of Contents

    Introduction to Online Media Analysis

    2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa

    Introduction and Approach

    Analysis of Key Issues

    Case Studies on Managing Public Perceptions

    About Grail Research

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    Overall Argument Frequency Key Areas of Discussion

    2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa

    Opinion Analysis Summary

    Source: Grail Analysis of Various Blogs, Forums and Articles

    60

    41

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    PositiveOpinions

    NegativeOpinions

    #ofOpinions

    1-5

    -3

    -40 -20 0 20 40

    -32 14Security Concerns

    -20 16Infrastructure Readiness

    10Impact on Tourism

    Political Agitation Risk

    Negative Opinions

    Positive Opinions

    # of Opinions

    Security concerns and infrastructure readiness of South Africa are the key topics beingdiscussed on the 2010 World Cup forums

    FIFA W ld C S h Af i

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    2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa

    Opinion Analysis Security Concerns

    Source: Grail Analysis of Various Blogs, Forums and Articles

    Number of Opinions: 46

    11%

    20%

    -59%

    -11%

    Increased security will ensure safety

    Current security situation is not very bad

    South Africa has serious security concerns

    Crime will increase during World Cup

    0%

    15%

    -15%

    -30%

    -46%

    -76%

    30%

    -61%

    Pros

    Cons

    Do you guys actually think this will last long after FIFA marks its spot in South Africa? Security willskyrocket and the foreigners will be kept safe. People are just exaggerating things (May 2008)

    Like any other country South Africa has its own problems, but vacationers here are in no more dangerthan any other country in the world (January 2009)

    My friends visited South Africa and had to be escorted by armed guards everywhere they wentTheSouth Africa government has quit releasing crime statistics because they were scaring tourists off(June 2008)

    Given all of the recent violence in South Africa against foreigners with over 50 deaths and endlesscounts of rape against women, should FIFA be looking to host this competition elsewhere?it shouldbe awarded to England who will do a much better job of hosting it (May 2008)

    with the money involved in the World Cup and the certain massive influx of tourists and their money,criminal gangs and opportunists are believed to be looking to exploit the event to their own ends(February 2008)

    However the current World Cup 2010 news is not good at allFor the first time, I am thinking I dontwant to go - I dont want to spend the money, I dont want to be in an unsafe environment (July 2008)

    %o

    fInciden

    ce

    A majority of the opinions indicate a negative view on the current security situation in SouthAfrica, and people expect it to deteriorate further during the 2010 World Cup

    2010 FIFA W ld C S h Af i

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    Number of Opinions: 36

    Infrastructural progress is as per schedule/satisfactory

    Existing infrastructure in South Africa is very poor

    Completion of infrastructural plans for World Cup is doubtful

    17%

    28%

    -31%

    -22%

    New infrastructure will leave a legacy for South Africa after World Cup

    -33%

    -67%

    -17%

    -50%

    50%

    33%

    0%

    17%

    Source: Grail Analysis of Various Blogs, Forums and Articles

    Pros

    Cons

    A revolutionized public transport system is seen as one of the most important legacies that SouthAfrica will secure from hosting the World Cup. The focus is on bus rapid transit systems, improved railfacilities, the integration of existing transport services (November 2008)

    In February 2008 FIFA said that South Africa is arguably ahead of previous World Cup organizers atthis comparative stageall ten World Cup stadiums remain on track to meet the 2010 deadline

    (November 2008)

    Apparently the power situation in South Africa is severe with regular load shedding which is costingbusinesses millions and also threatens to delay World Cup construction. Traffic congestion has gottenso bad due to traffic lights going out when the power does (January 2008)

    Four venues were supposed to be completed by December [2008] but are still not completedTheother six World Cup venues are scheduled to be finished in December [2009] but there is littleconfidence those deadlines will be met (January 2009)

    The system for issuing transport permits is in total chaos. (November 2008)

    %o

    fInciden

    ce

    Opinions are mixed on the progress of infrastructural development within South Africa for the2010 World Cup

    2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa

    Opinion Analysis Infrastructure Readiness

    2010 FIFA W ld C S th Af i

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    Number of Opinions: 13

    8%

    15%

    23%

    31%

    -15%

    World Cup offers tourism growth prospects for whole of Africa

    Other than World Cup, South Africa has a lot to offer to visiting tourists

    Global economic crisis will not significantly impact the number of World Cup tourists

    Tourism industry will experience high growth due to World Cup

    Global economic crisis will significantly reduce the number of World Cup tourists

    0%

    81%

    27%

    54%

    -27%

    South Africa should undertake more promotional activities

    -8%

    2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa

    Opinion Analysis Impact on Tourism

    Pros

    Cons

    Other than World Cup, there is much to see and have fun in South Africa ... All you have to do is makea trip through the vibrant cities to make out the beauty that is quite outstanding (January 2009)

    the weakened economic climate around the world would not result in a decrease in the expectednumber of 2010 visitors to South Africa. He said that fans will do whatever it takes to make it to SouthAfrican shores for the first-ever football World Cup to be held on the continent (January 2009)

    South Africa is expecting to welcome around 400 000 foreign touristsfor the World Cup. SouthAfrica will welcome an additional two million international tourists between 2007 and 2015 as a resultof increased exposure of being the Host Country for the 2010 FIFA World Cup(November 2008)

    South Africa could be victims of circumstances beyond their control, notably the global creditcrunch when South Africa first bid for the World Cup finals, it was estimated the tournament wouldattract about 900,000 visitors to the country. Now the predicted number is less than half that number

    (January 2009)

    Note:1

    Chief Communications Officer;2

    Local Organizing CommitteeSource: Grail Analysis of Various Blogs, Forums and Articles

    %o

    fIncidence

    A majority of the opinions share a positive view on the expected growth of tourism in SouthAfrica as a result of the World Cup

    2010 FIFA W ld C S th Af i

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    Number of Opinions: 6

    17%

    -50%

    -33%

    Political unrest should not adversely impact the World Cup

    Zimbabwe crisis poses a threat to the World Cup

    World Cup will give activists a chance to voice their anti-government opinions

    0%

    17%

    -17%

    -33%

    -50%

    -67%

    -83...

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