online course on debt sustainability analysis (dsax)...debt sustainability sustainability rules out...
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Online Course on Debt Sustainability Analysis
(DSAx)
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DSAx Part 1:
Principles of Debt Sustainability
Instructor: Irina Yakadina, IMF
This training material is the property of the International Monetary Fund and is intended for use in IMF Institute
for Capacity Development courses. Any reuse requires the permission of the IMF. The views expressed in this material are those of the course staff and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy.
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Part 1 Unit 1:
Learning Objectives and Structure of Part 1
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Learning Objectives of Part 1
Learn about key concepts of debt sustainability analysis
Understand the dangers of high debt
Derive debt dynamics for different types of debt
Discuss the role of fiscal adjustment and other macroeconomic policies
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Structure of Part 1
Unit 1: Overview
Unit 2: Defining debt sustainability
Unit 3: Why is debt sustainability analysis important?
Unit 4: Public debt sustainability in a closed economy: part 1
Unit 5: Debt dynamics Public debt sustainability in a closed economy: part 2
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Structure of Part 1
Unit 6 Public debt sustainability in an open economy
Unit 7 Chipping away at public debt (Adjustment paths and their implications)
Unit 8 Role of macroeconomic policies
Unit 9 External debt sustainability: part 1
Unit 10 External debt sustainability: part 2
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Part 1 Unit 2:
Defining Debt Sustainability
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UN
IT
OBJECTIV
ES
Understand the concept of sustainability
Master the relevant terminology
Identify relevant indicators of solvency and liquidity
Familiarization with various types of DSA conducted by the IMF/World Bank
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UN
IT
OUTLIN
E
Debt sustainability from different angles
Debt burden indicators
Introduction to IMF/World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA)
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Part 1 Unit 2: Lecture 1
What is Sustainability?
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OUTLIN
E
Debt Sustainability from Different Angles:
Academic
Pragmatic
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Intertemporal Solvency Condition
Primary expenditure= Expenditure – Interest expenditure
Discounting: refers to calculating the present discounted value
Initial debt
Future stream of primary
expenditure
Future stream of income
Future flows should be discounted
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Intertemporal Solvency Condition
When a government, business or individual is solvent, it is able to service its current debt out of future income or surpluses. A person with a small debt and large future income is solvent.
Example: Consider a business with debt of $20,000 and a prospect of annual profits of $10,000. The business is solvent as this debt can be serviced from future profits.
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Intertemporal Solvency Condition
A counter-example is a Ponzi-scheme. In such schemes, initial debt is serviced by relying on new investors, rather than serviced out of future surpluses.
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Solvency is
“very much like honesty:
it can never be fully certified,
and proofs are slow to materialize.”
Guillermo Calvo
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Academic Definition of Debt Sustainability
Debt is sustainable if the intertemporal solvency condition is satisfied, that is, if the expected present value of future primary balances covers the existing stock of debt.
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The ability to
postpone generating primary surpluses
to cover for the existing debt obligations into the future
makes solvency
a relatively weak requirement
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Academic Perspective
Precise
Forecasting Future Unobservable
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Pragmatic Definition of Debt Sustainability
Debt is sustainable if projected debt ratios are stable or decline, while also being sufficiently low.
Debt is unsustainable if projected debt ratios increase or remain high.
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Pragmatic Definition of Debt Sustainability
Pragmatism consists in recognizing that the ratio of debt to capacity to pay is what matters in order to avoid a debt crisis.
To be sustainable, debt cannot grow faster than incomes and the capacity to repay it.
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Pragmatic Definition of Debt Sustainability
Another aspect of pragmatism is to recognize that economies are subject to shocks.
A debt ratio which is declining but high can still be unsustainable if it associated with a high risk of default.
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Example of Pragmatic View of Sustainable Debt
Debt/GDP
Time
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Taking Solvency Condition to the Data
Solvency vs. Non-explosive Debt Ratios:
Useful result when interest rates are higher than the growth rate:
if the ratio of debt to GDP is either stable or declining in the long run, the solvency condition is automatically met.
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Risks to Sustainability
The projected trajectory and the level of debt should be based on realistic assumptions about the underlying macroeconomic variables
The resulting gross financing needs have to be evaluated
The market perception of the sovereign risks has to be factored in based on debt maturity structure, its currency composition, its creditor base, etc.
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Part 1 Unit 2: Lecture 2
Define Debt Sustainability
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OUTLIN
E
Debt Sustainability from Different Angles:
Economic Policy Definition
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Economic Policy Definition of Debt Sustainability
Debt is sustainable if the country (or its government) does NOT, in the future, need to default or renegotiate or restructure its debt or make implausibly large policy adjustments.
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Default
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Debt Restructuring
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Policy Adjustments
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Economic Policy Definition of Debt Sustainability
Sustainability rules out any of the following situations:
a debt restructuring is already needed
the borrower accumulates debt at a rate faster than the growth in its capacity to service debt
the borrower lives beyond its means by accumulating debt in the knowledge that a major retrenchment will be needed to service these debts
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RECAP Intertemporal solvency condition
is weaker than the economic policy definition of sustainability
We call debt sustainable if a country or a government is able to service its debts without the need for implausibly large policy adjustments; renegotiating the terms of debt; or simply defaulting.
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Part 1 Unit 2: Lecture 3
Debt Burden Indicators for Solvency and Liquidity: Commonly Used Ratios
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OUTLIN
E
The concept of liquidity
Debt burden indicators and their role
Key solvency indicators
Key liquidity indicators
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Liquidity
We define an entity as liquid if, regardless of whether it satisfies the solvency condition, its liquid assets and available financing are sufficient to meet or roll-over its maturing liabilities.
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What to Watch for to Minimize Liquidity Risks
The projected trajectory AND the level of debt should be based on realistic assumptions
Risk factors include
Market perception of the sovereign
Debt maturity structure
The currency composition of debt
The availability of liquid assets
The creditor base (notably, the share of non-resident creditors)
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Insolvency vs. Illiquidity
Sometimes it can be difficult to distinguish between insolvency and illiquidity situations
Liquidity problems are often symptoms of underlying solvency problems: creditors refuse to roll over maturing debt because of solvency concerns
Liquidity problems may give rise to insolvency, by raising interest rates or pressuring the exchange rate
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Vulnerability
When we talk about debt sustainability,
vulnerability is defined as a risk that the liquidity or solvency conditions are violated and the borrower enters a crisis
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How Do We Assess the Debt Burden?
By examining the projected evolution of a set of debt burden indicators over time
What are the indicators?
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Debt Burden Indicators
Ratios of the debt stock or debt service relative to what we define as measures of the ability to service debt (repayment capacity), e.g.
GDP export proceeds fiscal revenue Other
Gross financing needs, either in level or scaled by the above measures
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Debt Burden Indicators as Measures of Solvency and
Liquidity Ratios of debt stock relative to repayment capacity are indicators of solvency
Ratios of debt service are indicators of potential liquidity problems
Gross financing needs is an indicator of potential liquidity problems
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Definitions of Gross Financing Needs
Gross financing needs are the amount of financing necessary to cover the deficit plus amortization of debt
GFN = Deficit + Amortization
GFN = Primary Deficit + Debt Service
GFN can be positive or negative
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Definitions of Debt Service and Amortization
Debt service
DS = Interest + Amortization
Amortization = principal payments coming due on medium- and long-term debt plus short-term debt coming due (maturity of 1 year or less)
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Illustration: debt/GDP vs. debt/exports
Debt Ratios for an Open Economy (exports/GDP=60%)
Debt Ratios for a Closed Economy (exports/GDP=10%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
t t+1 t+2 t+3
Debt/Exports
Debt/GDP
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
t t+1 t+2 t+3
Debt/X
Debt/GDP
Both countries have the same debt/GDP ratio, but very different debt/exports ratio.
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Illustration: Gross Financing Needs and Other Debt Burden Indicators
STD=10% total
debt
STD=60% total
debt
(bill LCU)
Gross Financing Needs (deficit plus amortization) 360 906
Deficit
Primary deficit 22 22
Interest payments 108 108
Amortization Payments
Short-term debt 121 728
Medium and long-term debt 109 49
Debt service (interest plus amortization) 338 884
(%)
Gross financing needs-to-GDP 18% 44%
Gross financing needs-to-Revenue 73% 184%
Debt service-to-GDP 17% 43%Debt service-to-Revenue 69% 180%
Total public debt-to-GDP 66% 66%
Total public debt-to-Revenue 273% 273%
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RECAP Concept of Liquidity
Debt Burden Indicators:
Repayment Capacity (the ability to service debt).
Solvency and Liquidity
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Part 1 Unit 2: Lecture 4
Scope of Debt Sustainability Analysis
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OUTLIN
E
Scope of the IMF/World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA)
DSA for Different Types of Debt
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DSA and DSF
A DSA is produced for a particular country
The Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) is the framework within which DSAs are produced.
The DSF is needed to ensure comparability across DSAs produced for different countries.
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MAC DSA
For advanced and emerging economies with access to financial markets, we use the Framework for Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market-Access Countries (MAC DSA)
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MAC DSA (www.imf.org)
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LIC DSF
The DSF originated as the framework to assess debt sustainability in low-income countries (LICs)
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LIC DSF (www.imf.org)
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Sample DSA (www.imf.org)
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Scope of Public DSA
The public DSA (also called the fiscal DSA) covers total debt of the public sector, to external and domestic creditors
MAC DSA for public debt covers only public debt, not publicly guaranteed debt (PPG) LIC DSA for public debt covers public and publicly guaranteed debt (PPG)
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Scope of External DSA
The external DSA covers external debt in the economy
MAC DSA for external debt covers debt owed by both the public sector and the private sector LIC DSA for external debt covers public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external debt
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Part 1 Unit 2: Lecture 5
Debt Sustainability Frameworks
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Components of the Debt Sustainability Framework
Public sector
external debt
Private external
debt
Public domestic debt
Publ
ic D
SA
External DSA
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Elements of the Debt Sustainability Analysis
Baseline scenario (macroframework)
Assessment of the realism of macroeconomic assumptions
Stress tests
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Two frameworks: MACs and LICs
MAC DSA
• Used for: countries with
sustained access to international
capital markets
• Horizon: 5 years
• Indicators: debt level in nominal
terms, gross financing needs,
debt profile
• Benchmarks: differ for advanced
and emerging market
economies, are used to assess the
level of risks
LIC DSF
• Used for: countries relying on
concessional resources
• Horizon: 20 years
• Indicators: solvency and liquidity
debt burden indicators expressed
in present value terms
• Thresholds: policy-dependent,
are used to determine risk
rating
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RECAP Scope of Debt Sustainability
Analysis (DSA)
MAC or LIC
DSA for Different Types of Debt
Public or External
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Part 1 Unit 3:
Why is Debt Sustainability Analysis Important?
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UN
IT
OBJECTIV
ES
Understanding the costs of high debt
Learn the definition and origin of debt and other crises
Understanding the mechanism of debt crisis
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UN
IT
OUTLIN
E
Costs Associated with High Debt
Types of Economic Crisis
Mechanism of Debt Crisis
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Part 1 Unit 3: Lecture 1
Costs Associated with High Debt
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UN
IT
OUTLIN
E
Consequences of High Debt
Vulnerability to Sudden Stops
Crowding out of private investment
Loss of policy flexibility
Debt Overhang
Debt Restructuring
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Consequences of High Debt
For both public debt and total external debt:
Vulnerability to a sudden stop in financing (official or private flows)
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Impact of Sudden Stops
External debt:
current and capital account restrictions
currency crisis, banking crisis, recession, default
Public debt
drastic reduction in primary spending
currency crisis, banking crisis, recession, default
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Consequences of High Debt
For public debt, consequences include
Higher interest rates and crowding out of private investment
Less flexibility to conduct countercyclical policy
Debt overhang
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Debt Overhang
Definition: The expected tax burden to finance debt is so high that it is a disincentive to current investment/consumption and hence a drag on the economic activity
Consequences:
lower growth, lower government revenues
insufficient funds for primary expenditures
higher chance of default
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Debt Overhang
Worries about
debt
sustainability
Concerns about
future financing
of the sovereign
Concerns about
economic
growth
Worries about
fiscal deficits
Rising risk
premium
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Consequences of Sovereign Debt Restructuring
Political and economic penalties
Spillovers across segments of the economy (especially if banks are major holders of government debt)
Contagion to other countries
The 1998 Russian sovereign default and fears in 2010 of a possible Greek default are examples of strong contagion to other countries
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RECAP Costs Associated with High
Debt:
Vulnerability
Crowding out
Loss of flexibility
Debt Overhang
Debt Restructuring
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Part 1 Unit 3: Lecture 2
Types of Economic Crises
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OUTLIN
E
Types of Economic Crises
Currency Crises
Banking Crises
External Debt Crises
Sovereign Debt Crises
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Currency Crises
What: an attack in a country’s currency results in one, or a combination, of the following
large devaluation sharp depreciation large increase in interest rates large fall in reserves
When: concerns about the viability of the exchange rate regime or the level of the exchange rate
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Currency Crises
Why:
market expects that foreign exchange (FX) reserves will run out because of inconsistent policies or be insufficient to cover short-term debt
market expects government to devalue in order to address a policy goal, such as improved competitiveness
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Banking Crises
What: run on banks or large-scale government intervention to rescue banks
When: concerns about solvency and liquidity of banks
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Banking Crises
Why:
bursting bubble in equity or real estate prices
interest rate, exchange rate, or growth shocks
bust typically follows lending booms (stimulated by financial liberalization/capital inflows)
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Debt Crises
Debt crises can be associated with either sovereign (public) or commercial (private) debt
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Sovereign Debt Crises
What: defaults, involuntary restructuring of sovereign debt, or belief that this is about to occur
When: often combined (or immediately following) banking crises:
this was true for over 60 percent of all sovereign debt crises after 1970 (Rogoff and Reinhart, 2010)
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Sovereign Debt Crises
Why:
financial rescue packages extended period of low growth fiscal profligacy (including war finance) failed state-owned enterprises natural disasters etc.
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External Debt Crises
What: payment arrears on a substantial fraction of external debt
When: cash flow problems or difficulties obtaining foreign exchange
Why:
“sudden stops” following capital inflow episode
interest rate, exchange rate, or growth shocks
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RECAP Different Types of Economic
Crises:
Currency Crises
Banking Crises
External Debt Crises
Sovereign Debt Crises
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Additio
nal
Res
ourc
es Please watch the
video on Latvia :
Debt and BoP crisis with
internal devaluation and fiscal adjustment
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Part 1 Unit 3: Lecture 3
Mechanism of Sovereign Debt Crises
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OUTLIN
E
Sample Mechanism of Debt Crisis
Bank-sovereign Interdependence
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A Sample Mechanism of a Sovereign Debt Crisis
Financial sector rescue packages weigh on public debt and the deficit
Economic activity nosedives
Fiscal revenue collapses while expenditures skyrocket
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A Sample Mechanism of a Sovereign Debt Crisis
The resulting spike in deficits and debt causes concerns about the fiscal balance and debt sustainability
Costs of borrowing for the sovereign increase
Fiscal position further worsens
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Bank-Sovereign Interdependence
Damage to bank balance sheetsbailout costs and increase in sovereign debt
Increase in sovereign debthigher possibility of sovereign default, lower ratingsdamage to bank balance sheets
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Bank-Sovereign Interdependence
Lower sovereign ratings
Recession
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RECAP Sample mechanism of debt
crisis
Bank-sovereign Interdependence
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Part 1 Unit 4
Public Debt Sustainability in a Closed Economy
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UN
IT
OBJECTIV
ES
Learn how to derive the law of motion for public debt
Learn how to derive the formal solvency condition for public debt
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UN
IT
OUTLIN
E
Closed economy:
Law of motion for public debt
Solvency condition for public debt
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Part 1 Unit 4: Lecture 1
Law of Motion for Public Debt
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OUTLIN
E
The debt-deficit relationship
The primary balance
The government budget constraint
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The Relationship between Deficit and Public Debt
Current Stock of Debt = Past Stock of Debt
+ Deficit
+ Other Flows
+ Exchange Rate Valuation
In the closed economy, we assume debt is issued in local currency, so that there is no contribution of exchange rate valuation. In the open economy, we allow for debt issued in local currency and in foreign currency.
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Vicious Circle of Debt and Deficit
Deficit
Borrowing Increase
in debt
Higher
interest
payments
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Relationship between Deficit and Public Debt
Budget deficit can be financed by borrowing or other means (e.g., printing money or selling assets)
Net new borrowing necessary to finance budget deficit adds to the current stock of debt
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Note Other flows include
asset purchases and expenditure items not included in G
bank recapitalization assumption of guaranteed state enterprise debt
non-debt sources of financing asset sales such as privatization revenues seigniorage
Such non-debt sources of financing enter with a negative sign
105
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Focusing on Primary Balance:
Substitute the primary balance definition:
Assume other flows are zero:
11 tttttt DDOTDiPB
0tOT
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Equation for Debt Dynamics:
107
tttt PBDiD 1)1(
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Example: Evolution of Debt over Time
tttt PBDiD 1)1(
1001 tD 2tPB%2ti
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6 t+7 t+8 t+9 t+10
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Part 1 Unit 4: Lecture 2
Deriving the Solvency Condition
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OUTLIN
E
Deriving the Solvency Condition from the Flow Budget Constraint:
Derive the Intertemporal Budget Constraint
Impose Transversality
Obtain Solvency Condition
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Checkpoint: Where Are We?
We talked about the debt-deficit relationship
We derived the government budget constraint
We derived one-period law of motion for public debt
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Checkpoint: what’s next?
We will start with the flow budget constraint
We will use forward substitution to derive the intertemporal budget constraint
Which we need to obtain solvency condition (in present-value terms)
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Part 1 Unit 5
Public Debt Sustainability In Closed Economy: Part 2
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UN
IT
OBJECTIV
ES
Learn how to derive the law of motion for the ratio of public debt-to-GDP for a closed economy
Analyze contributions of key macroeconomic variables to debt dynamics
Obtain the debt-stabilizing primary balance
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UN
IT
OUTLIN
E
Closed economy:
Law of motion for public-debt-to GDP ratio
Automatic debt dynamics
Debt-stabilizing primary balance
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Part 1 Unit 5: Lecture 1
Law of Motion for Public Debt-to-GDP in a Closed
Economy
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OUTLIN
E
Law of motion for public-debt-to GDP ratio
Key macroeconomic variables affect debt sustainability
Primary balance
Initial level of debt
Growth
Real interest rate
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Checkpoint: Where Are We?
We are still in the case of a closed economy (to avoid worrying about the exchange rate-induced variations in debt)
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Checkpoint: what’s next?
We are about to get pragmatic and do some derivations in terms of ratios of debt stock to the economy’s capacity (GDP)
Law-of-motion for debt-to-GDP in hand, we will look at the impact of the key macroeconomic variables on debt dynamics
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Part 1 Unit 5: Lecture 2
Stabilizing Debt in a Closed Economy
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OUTLIN
E
Automatic debt dynamics
Stability of debt
Debt stabilizing primary balance
The danger of debt momentum
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Primary Balance to Stabilize Debt:
Assuming d is constant
one can solve for the
debt stabilizing primary balance pb*:
135
11
*
t
t
ttt d
g
grpb
Automatic debt dynamics
1 tt dd
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Primary Balance to Stabilize Debt:
The primary surplus needed to keep the debt/GDP constant equals the debt dynamics. It is proportionate to the gap between real interest rate and real growth rate
The primary balance needed to keep the debt/GDP constant will rise directly with the size of the initial debt/GDP , if r>g
We can also interpret the equation as telling us the level of debt which can be sustained for a given primary balance
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The Danger of Debt Momentum:
The primary surplus needed to keep the debt/GDP constant will rise directly with the size of the initial debt/GDP
The higher is the initial debt stock, the more difficult it is to stabilize the debt/GDP ratio
Danger of built in momentum, the higher debt-to-GDP ratio gets, the less likely it is to run a sufficiently large primary surplus debt rises
Thus, vulnerability rises with debt-to-GDP ratio
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Illustration: Evolution of Debt/GDP over Time:
%1001 td %2tpb%2r
ttt
tt pbd
g
)r(d
1
)1(
1
%5g
%GDP
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6 t+7 t+8 t+9 t+10
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UN
IT
RECAP Law of motion for public-debt-
to GDP ratio
Automatic debt dynamics
Debt-stabilizing primary balance
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Part 1 Unit 6
Public Debt Sustainability In Open Economy
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UN
IT
OBJECTIV
ES
Learn how to derive the law of motion for public debt for an open economy
Obtain the debt-stabilizing primary balance
Analyze contributions of key macroeconomic variables to debt dynamics
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UN
IT
OUTLIN
E
Open economy:
Law of motion for public debt
Debt-stabilizing primary balance
Comparative statics
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Part 1 Unit 6: Lecture 1
Law of Motion for Public Debt in an Open Economy
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OUTLIN
E
Flow budget constraint with external financing
Law of motion for the debt-to-GDP ratio
Automatic debt dynamics
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Coefficient on Automatic Debt Dynamics
)1)(1(
)1()1(1* 1
tt
f
tttttt
w
tt
g
iggi
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Automatic Debt Dynamics
156
ttt
tt
f
tttt
tt
tt
tt
tt
w
ttt otpbd
g
id
g
gd
g
gidd
1
1111
)1)(1(
)1(
)1)(1()1)(1(
)1(
Contribution of exchange rate depreciation
Contribution of real GDP growth
Contribution of the effective real interest rate
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Part 1 Unit 6: Lecture 2
Stabilizing Debt in an Open Economy
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OUTLIN
E
Debt stabilizing primary balance
Comparative statics: role of key macroeconomic variables:
Initial level of debt
Growth
Interest Rate
Exchange Rate
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Key Comparative Statics:
The required primary balance is higher when:
The real interest rate - growth differential is large
Other flows contribute to an increase in debt (e.g. financial sector support measures, nationalization of private pensions)
There is exchange rate depreciation (ε) in countries with large foreign exchange denominated debt (α)
Note: The last two are examples of “stock-flow adjustments” because they help reconcile the change in the value of debt with the deficit
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Illustration:
Key Macro-Economic Variables
Country W Country X Country Y Country Z
(% change)
rd 5 4 5 5
rf .. .. .. 5
g 4 5 4 4
ε* 0 0 0 5
(% GDP)
dd 100 100 20 50
df 0 0 0 50
pb* 0.96 -0.95 0.19 3.49
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Illustration:
We can calculate pb* by applying the formula, while being careful to express interest rates and growth rates as a percent:
For country Z for example:
)1(
)1(*)(*
t
ff
ttt
w
t
g
drdgrpb
%49.30349.0)04.01(
5.0)05.01(05.01)04.005.0(*
pb
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UN
IT
RECAP Debt Law-of-Motion
Debt-stabilizing Primary Balance
Key Comparative Statics
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Part 1 Unit 7
Chipping Away at Public Debt
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UN
IT
OBJECTIV
ES
Understand different adjustment paths and their implications
Understand how fiscal adjustment may affect GDP and the risk premium on government debt
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UN
IT
OUTLIN
E
Adjustment Paths and Their Implications
Front-loaded and back-loaded adjustments
Fiscal Adjustment, the Business Cycle, and the Risk Premium
History of Past Fiscal Adjustments (video)
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Part 1 Unit 7: Lecture 1
Adjustment Paths and Their Implications
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OUTLIN
E
Definition of front-loaded and
back-loaded adjustment
Circumstances favoring each
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Front-loaded and Back-loaded Adjustment:
Front-loaded adjustment:
Back-loaded adjustment:
time
time
pb
pb
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Front-loaded and Back-loaded Adjustment:
Front-loaded fiscal adjustment quickly raises the primary balance to the “targeted” level
Back-loaded adjustment phases in the adjustment over time
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Circumstances Affecting the Timing of Adjustment:
Front-loading may be necessary:
when facing severe financing constraints
to build credibility
to seize opportunity of political support
Back-loading may be preferable to:
support to economic activity
ensure quality of measures
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Circumstances Affecting the Timing of Adjustment:
Credibility is very important in the context of high debt, because of its effect on the risk premium and therefore debt dynamics
In the case of back-loading, credibility can be enhanced by institutional mechanisms, such as balanced budget rules and procedural rules
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Circumstances Affecting the Timing of Adjustment:
If fiscal adjustment has a negative impact on growth, it may undermine debt sustainability
undertake fiscal adjustment in the upswing of the business cycle undertake fiscal adjustment during worldwide recoveries support fiscal adjustment with accommodating monetary policy
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Front-loaded and Back-loaded Adjustment
In the Additional Resources we provide a formula for the fiscal adjustment necessary to reduce debt over a given number of periods. The formula allows one to distinguish front-loaded adjustment from back-loaded adjustment.
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Additio
nal
Res
ourc
es This material took stock of:
The primary balance necessary to reduce debt to certain level
the potential impact on cost of funding
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RECAP The tradeoff between front-
loaded and back-loaded fiscal adjustment is
front-loading to ease financing constraints and gain credibility
vs.
back-loading to support growth and work out quality measures
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Part 1 Unit 7: Lecture 2
Fiscal adjustment and the business cycle
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OUTLIN
E
How the budget balance affects GDP
How the budget balance affects the risk premium
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Fiscal Adjustment and the Business Cycle
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Three main channels from primary balance to debt/GDP:
directly via the primary balance in the debt dynamics
via GDP through demand lower government spending and higher taxes reduce demand
via interest rates through credibility (risk premium) and demand
crowding out
Fiscal Adjustment and the Business Cycle
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Fiscal Adjustment and the Business Cycle
Fiscal consolidation may lead to slower GDP growth
High multiplier (closed economy, high unemployment) Coordinated consolidations in economic partners
Fiscal consolidation may lead to lower interest rates
In high-debt countries credibility effects are particularly important
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UN
IT
RECAP Front-loaded vs back-loaded
adjustment
The speed at which debt can be reduced depends on how fiscal adjustment affects GDP and interest rates.
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Additio
nal
Res
ourc
es
Please watch the video on
Chipping Away At Public Debt
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Part 1 Unit 8
Role of Macroeconomic Policies
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UN
IT
OBJECTIV
ES
Understand the role of monetary policy
Understand the economic policy tradeoffs
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UN
IT
OUTLIN
E
Monetary Policy Stance and Debt
Policy Tradeoffs
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Part 1 Unit 8: Lecture 1
Monetary Policy Stance and Debt
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OUTLIN
E
Expansionary monetary policy—possible effects
The effect of monetary policy on interest rates and inflation
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Monetary policy stance and debt
Interest rate
Inflation
Exchange rate
Growth
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Monetary policy stance and debt
Expansionary monetary policy—possible effects
Lower nominal interest rates Lower real interest rates Higher inflation Higher growth Depreciated exchange rate
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Monetary policy stance and debt
Use the debt dynamics equation and assuming at first no foreign currency debt:
if real interest rates fall and growth improves (therefore improving the primary balance), debt is reduced.
)()1(
11 ttt
t
tt otpbd
g
)r(d
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Monetary policy stance and debt
If there is foreign currency debt, the effect is no longer unambiguous. Debt/GDP could increase, in the case of less than complete pass-through of exchange rate depreciation to inflation.
)()1)(1(
11
)1(
111 tt
f
ttt
t
f
td
tt
d
tt otpbd
g
))(i(d
g
)r(d
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Illustration: Impact of Monetary Easing
Easing of monetary policy
Depreciation
No change in Passthrough Passthrough
No easing exchange rate 20% 100%
(% change)
rd 6 4 4 4
if 3 3 3 3
ε* 0 0 10 10
π 0 0 2 10
g 3 4 5 4
pb -2 -1.5 -1 -1.5
(% GDP)
ddt-1 50 50 50 50
dft-1 50 50 50 50
dt 105.0 103.0 106.1 103.0
tt
f
tttt
f
t
d
ttd
tt otpbdgidgrd 11 )()(
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Monetary Policy Stance and Debt
The effect of monetary policy on interest rates and inflation needs to be qualified
Expansionary monetary policy tends to reduce short-term interest rates but increase long-term ones, reflecting expectations of future inflation
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Monetary Policy Stance and Debt
Fischer equation: i≈r*+πe
Interest rates are set based on a required real return r*
Given r*, higher πe translates into higher i
Ex post r need not equal r* if there is surprise inflation (in which case r<r*)
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Part 1 Unit 8: Lecture 2
Policy Tradeoffs
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OUTLIN
E
Sustainable Debt vs. Inflation
Sustainable Debt vs. Competitiveness
Sustainable Debt vs. Fairness
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Policy Tradeoffs
Fiscal dominance
Fear of floating
Fairness/income distribution
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Policy Tradeoffs: Sustainable Debt vs. Inflation
Fiscal dominance: inability to conduct contractionary monetary policy because it would jeopardize government debt dynamics
Contractionary monetary policy, which would result in
higher real interest rates
lower growth
higher debt/GDP
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Policy Tradeoffs: Sustainable Debt vs. Competitiveness
Fear of Floating: reluctance to allow a floating exchange rate to depreciate
Loose monetary policy is helpful for competitiveness and growth, but will raise the value of foreign currency debt expressed in local currency (public and private) and may cause bankruptcies
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Policy Tradeoffs: Sustainable Debt vs. Competitiveness
Fear of floating follows from the “original sin”—the inability of emerging markets to issue external debt in their own currency.
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Policy Tradeoffs: Sustainable Debt vs. Fairness
Inflation as default
There is a thin line separating inflation from default since inflation erodes away the value of debt (especially when there is “financial repression” capping nominal interest rates)
Inflation creates a redistribution of wealth from creditors to debtors
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Part 1 Unit 9
External Debt Sustainability
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UN
IT
OBJECTIV
ES
Understanding similarities between external and fiscal sustainability
Understanding external debt creating flows
Understanding solvency condition for external debt
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UN
IT
OUTLIN
E
External DSA
External debt creating flows
Debt law-of-motion
Solvency condition for external debt
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Part 1 Unit 9: Lecture 1
External Debt Creating Flows
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OUTLIN
E
External DSA
External debt creating flows
The adjusted balance
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External DSA:
Similarities between external and fiscal sustainability apply similar methodologies
Focus on external debt of the country (including the private sector debt)
The current account balance of the balance of payments takes the place of the overall budget balance.
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Key Differences with Public Debt:
The government does not directly control the CAB
In a healthy cycle, exports and CAB will improve over time, allowing for repayment of debt
Exchange rate normally plays larger role in external sustainability
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External Debt Creating Flows:
Our goal in this unit is to derive a law of motion for external debt, which links debt to past debt and the current account balance.
In the process we will define the adjusted balance, AB, which is a modified current account balance.
t
f
t
f
t
f
t AB)Di(D 11
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Notation:
CAt current account balance ABt adjusted balance It interest payments on external debt KAt capital account FAt financial account At external assets Lt external liabilities Dt
f external debt liabilities Et external equity liabilities (PtYt) GDP expressed in USD = PtYt/et
All variables are expressed in USD
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The Adjusted Balance:
Define:
The current account (the sum of net exports, income and current transfers) records interest payments on debt as a negative income item. Here we add interest back to obtain the non-interest CAB.
)()( ttttt AEICAAB
non-interest current account balance
non-debt financing
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Part 1 Unit 9: Lecture 2
External Financing Constraint and Debt-Law-
of-Motion
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OUTLIN
E
External Financing Constraint
Debt Law-of-motion
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External Financing Constraint
Using the terminology of the BOP and IIP manual (6th edition), we write:
We assume for simplicity that the capital account KA (capital transfers for the most part) is zero.
ttt FAKACA
0tKA
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External Financing Constraint
The financial account of the BOP records the acquisition of assets and the incurrence of liabilities (e.g. as the result of external borrowing). These flows are called “transactions”.
We assume for simplicity that valuation effects are zero, so that the change in the value of assets and liabilities is equal to these BOP transactions.
ttt LACA
FAt
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External Financing Constraint
Liabilities can be either debt liabilities or equity liabilities:
Debt includes debt securities, loans, currency and bank deposits. Equity includes shares and foreign direct investment.
)( t
f
ttt EDACA
ΔLt
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Debt Law-of-motion
Rewriting the previous equation in terms of current period debt and adding and deducting interest:
Next assume as before:
f
t
f
tt DiI 1
-ABt
tttttf
t
f
t IIAECADD 1
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Debt Law-of-motion
Finally, using the definition of the adjusted balance and grouping terms involving lagged debt, we find the law-of-motion we had set out to find:
t
f
t
f
t
f
t AB)Di(D 11
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Part 1 Unit 9 Lecture 3:
Solvency condition for external debt
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Solvency condition for external debt
From the debt law-of-motion we can obtain the intertemporal budget constraint through repeated substitution, as we did for public debt.
We then obtain the solvency condition for external debt by imposing the tranversality condition or No-Ponzi condition. Specifically, we require that the present discounted value of external debt at time infinity approaches zero.
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Solvency Condition For External Debt
Using a the same method as for public debt, the intertemporal budget condition extended to N periods is:
We extend this formula to time infinity and impose the transversality condition.
f
N
N
f
t
j
j
f
t
N
j
f Di
ABi
D )()(1
1
1
1
1
0
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Solvency Condition
Solvency: the present value of all surpluses (of the adjusted balance) is equal to initial debt.
j
j
f
tj
f ABi
D )(1
1
1
0
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RECAP External Debt Sustainability
Analysis
External Debt Creating Flows
Debt Law-of-motion
Solvency condition for external debt
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Part 1 Unit 10 Lecture 1:
Deriving External Debt Law-of-Motion
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OUTLIN
E
Debt Law-of-motion: The Debt-To-GDP Ratio
Automatic Debt Dynamics
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External Debt Law-of-Motion: the Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Evolution of external debt at time t:
We divide by GDP expressed in USD, (PtYt)*
since external debt is expressed in USD.
Using (PtYt)*= PtYt/et
t
f
t
f
t
f
t AB)Di(D 11
*)(/)1)(1(
1
*)( 11
1
tt
t
ttttt
f
t
f
t
tt
f
t
YP
AB
eYPg
)Di(
YP
D
PtYt
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Debt Law-of-Motion: the Debt-To-GDP Ratio
We convert GDP in local currency back to GDP in USD and use 1+εt=et/et-1
*)(*)()1)(1(
11
*)( 11
1
tt
t
tt
f
t
tt
t
f
t
tt
f
t
YP
AB
YP
D
g
))(i(
YP
D
abt dft-1
dft
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Debt Law-of-Motion: the Debt-to-GDP Ratio
*= foreign inflation rate rt
f= real interest rate on foreign debt ε*= real exchange rate depreciation
)1(
*)1)(1(*)1(
*)1(
)1()1(
f
tf
t
ir
It is easy to show that ))(r(
))(i(t
f
tt
t
f
t *11)1(
11
where
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Debt Law-of-Motion: Analytical Representation
Evolution of the debt-to-GDP ratio
t
f
tt
t
f
tf
t abdg
))(r(d
1
)1(
*11
For ab t =0 and d t -1>0: If φ t <1, debt converges to zero If φ t >1, debt explodes
φt
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Automatic Debt Dynamics
Deducting past debt from both sides and simplifying:
t
f
t
t
f
ttt
f
tf
t
f
t abdg
rgrdd
11
)1(
)1(*
t
f
t
f
t
t
t
f
tf
t
f
t abddg
))(r(dd
11
*
1)1(
11
automatic debt dynamics
φt-1
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Debt-Stabilizing Adjusted Balance
What level of ab keeps debt constant? To find the answer, simply set dt=dt-1 in the previous expression (denote the constant debt level by d*)
ab* is the debt-stabilizing primary surplus. Note that it equals the automatic debt dynamics.
If ab>ab* debt falls continuously; if ab<ab*, debt explodes and is therefore unsustainable
*
)1(
)1(** d
g
rgrab
t
f
ttt
f
t
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Key Comparative Statics
Debt dynamics are affected by:
Real interest rate
Growth rate of the economy
Current level of indebtedness
Net exports
Long-term level of other flows
Real exchange rate changes
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Illustration
Country X Country Y Country Z
(% change)
rf 5 5 5
g 4 4 4
ε 0 0 -2
(% GDP)
df 100 20 100
ab*
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Illustration
We can calculate ab* by applying the formula, while being careful to divide the parameters by 100:
For country Z for example:
*
)1(
)1(** d
g
rgrab
t
f
ttt
f
t
%06.10106.01)04.01(
)05.01(02.004.005.0*
ab
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Summary
Key Takeaways for External Debt
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Key Equations
Debt law-of-motion
Adjusted balance
Debt law-of-motion (%GDP)
t
f
t
f
t
f
t AB)Di(D 11
)()( ttttt AEICAAB
t
f
t
t
f
ttt
f
tf
t
f
t abdg
rgrdd
11
)1(
)1(*
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Debt dynamics
Debt dynamics are affected by
Real interest rate Growth rate of the economy Current level of indebtedness Net exports Long-term level of other flows Real exchange rate changes