Physical Fundamentals of Global Change Processes

19. December 2006 Manja Kämper

Global Change Management

One Planet – One Planet – Too Many PeopleToo Many People

Table of Content

• World Population

• People and Planet – Human Influence on the Planet

• Human Impacts on the Planet– Water (Aral Sea, Kazakhstan)– Forests (Lappi, Finland)

World Population

• 2000 6 000 million individuals

• 2006 6 555 million individuals

• 2015 7 200 million individuals

• 98% of population increase in less developed regions of the world

• Africa will experience the most rapid rate of growth

„World Population is the number of people alive on the earth at any given point in time.“

Source: UNEP

World Population

World Population density (person/ km²)

Source: WIKIPEDIA

8.3

2.6

333

65

231

Human Influences

The overall impact that humans have on the global environment is proportional to the number of people on earth and the average

influence of each individual Source: UNEP

Human Impacts on the Planet

[Land Area hectare per capita]

Earth’s Shrinking Biosphere 1900-2000

• logging and land use conversion have reduced forest cover by at least 20 %

• nearly 70 % of the world‘s major marine fish stock are over fished or being fished at the biological limit• an estimated 27 000 species disappear from the planet each year

• soil degradation has affected 2/3 of the world‘s agricultural land

• half of the world‘s wetlands were lost during the last century

• mass extinction caused by human activities like transforming the landscape, overexploiting species, pollution

Source: UNEP

Human Impacts - Water Facts

• of total world water, 97.5% is salty water and only 2.5% is freshwater of which useable freshwater accounts for about 0.5%

• of the 0.5% useable freshwater, irrigation accounts for 70%, industry 20% and household 10%

• Demand for and use of freshwater has tripled over the past half century, as world population has grown from 2.5 to 6.55 billion people

• experts predict that by 2025 global water needs will increase with 40% more required for cities and 20% for growing crops

• over the next 20 years, average water supply per person is estimated to drop by a third, endangering human health, agriculture and the environment

Source: UNEP

Aral Sea, Kazakhstan

Aral Sea, Kazakhstan

Aral Sea, Kazakhstan

position: Asiacountries: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistanarea: 33.600 km²volume of water: appr. 117 km³water level: 37 m over normally zeromax. depth:34 msupplies: Amu-Darja, Syr-Darjadischarge: is situated in a basinSalt concentration: 78 g/l (1960 9g/l)

Aral Sea, Kazakhstan

Climate

temperature

January -13°C

June/ July 26°C

precipitation

January 9 mm

June/ July 10 mm

Aral Sea, Kazakhstan

State

km³ % km³ % km³ %

Kazakhstan 2,426 6,500 / / 2,426 2,100

Kirgistan 27,605 74,200 1,604 2,000 29,209 25,100

Tadschikistan 1,005 2,700 49,578 62,900 50,583 43,400

Turkmenistan / / 1,549 1,900 1,549 1,200

Uzbekistan 6,167 16,600 5,056 6,000 11,223 9,600Afghanistan and Iran / / 21,593 27,200 21,593 18,600

Aral Sea 37,203 100,0 79,380 100,0 116,583 100,0¹average 1951-1974 ²average 1934-1992

basin

Syrdarja¹ Amudarja² Aral Sea

Discharge formation in the aral sea basin after states (km³)

Aral Sea, Kazakhstan

State

Mio. m³ % Mio. m³ % Mio. m³ %

Kazakhstan 14200 11,8 11320 9,7 8235 7,8

Kirgistan 4080 3,4 5155 4,4 3291 3,1

Tadschikistan 10750 8,9 9259 8,0 12521 11,9

Turkmenistan 23000 19,1 23338 20,1 18075 17,2

Uzbekistan 64910 53,8 63611 54,7 62833 59,9

Aral Sea 116940 100,0 112683 100,0 104955 100,0

199919901980

Use of the water resources in the aral sea basin 1980-1999 in Mio. m³

Aral Sea, Kazakhstan

Images show death of the world’s fourth largest inland sea

• 1973: The surface of the sea once measured 66 100 km²

• 1987: 60% of the volume had been lost

• 1999-2004: The sea is now quarter of the size it was 50 years ago

Source: UNEP

Aral Sea, Kazakhstan

• withdrawal of the basic living conditions• high unemployment rate• insufficient supply with drinking water and food• contamination of drinking water and food• insufficient public health care und medical aid• very high illness rates (infectious disease and

cancer)• appr. 70% of all mothers suffer anaemia• deformity of children• high infant mortality rate• Conflicts between the countries

Human Impacts - Forest Facts

1900

3.18

1900

3.18

1950

1.85

1950

1.85 1960

1.45

1960

1.45 1970

1.17

1970

1.171980

0.97

1980

0.97 1990

0.82

1990

0.822000

0.64

2000

0.64

Earth’s shrinking forestland (ha per capita) 1900-2000

Earth’s shrinking forestland (ha per capita) 1900-2000

Source: UNEP

Forest Facts

• forests cover almost 1/3 of the earth's land surface;

• the global area of forest systems has been reduced by 1/2 over the past three centuries

• worldwide, the total forest area in 2005 is just under 4 billion hectares; the rate of deforestation is about 13 million hectares per year

• tropical forests are home to about 50% of all plant and animal species on the planet

• approximately 1.5 billion tonnes of wood is harvested for fuel annually worldwide

• forests are among the most notable storehouses of biological diversity on the land – 2/3 of known terrestrial species

Source: UNEP

Lappi, Finland

Lappi, Finland

area: 98 937 km² (94% land area; 6% lakes &

rivers)population: 203 000 personspopulation density: 2.2 person/km²

Homeland of Northern Europe’s only indigenous people, the Sámi

Lappi, Finland

Images show results of logging in the northeastern areas of the country

The patches of tan in the 2002 image signify clearcut areas

Lappi, Finland

• Loss of biomass and biodiversity• Loss as a sources of food, fuel,

construction material, fibers• Loss of water and air filtration,

carbon sequestration, soil stabilization and tourism

• Loss of a basic living condition for Sami people

• Loss of tradition

Sources

UNEP-Atlas

Malmström, Vincent H.: Lappland: Nothern Europe‘s Strategic Problem Area

Greenpeace: Lappland: State of a conflict, March 2005

www.unu.edu/unupress/unubooks/uu18ce/uu18ce00.htm

Thank you for your attention and

a merry christmas!

Comments for Manja Kämperfrom Manfred Stock

1. To be finished .....