on the changing nature of air combat: real and simulated · on the changing nature of air combat:...

UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public ReleaseCLASSIFICATIONUNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release

On The Changing Nature of Air Combat:Real and Simulated

Dr Michael PapasimeonHead Aerospace Simulation, Experimentation & Wargaming

Aerospace Operations Research

Joint & Operations Analysis Division

Dr Clint HeinzeCounsellor Defence Science & Technology

Australian Defence Staff

Australian High Commission – London

UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release

1980 Operational Research Group

1983 Combat Effectiveness Group

1988 Studies Group

1991 Studies and Simulation Group

1998 Air Combat Assessment

2001 Aerospace Operational Analysis

2007 Aerospace Capability Assessment

2013 Simulation Experimentation and Wargaming


Air Combat Constructive Simulation

Operational Analysis in support of:– TTPs & CONOPS evaluation and assessment

– Acquisitions

– System upgrades

Monte-Carlo Simulation

Statistical Measures of Effectiveness– Lethality, Survivability, Exchange Ratios etc

Very large parameter space


History

PACAUS, SWARMM, dGAME, Battlemodel, ARTEMIS ACE


Five Generations of Air Combat Simulations

PACAUS

SWARMM

BattleModel


Air Combat Simulation Deployed Applications

2000s

1990s

Late 1990s –2000s

Late 80s –Mid 90s

Late 1990s

PACAUS

SWARMM

dGAME

BattleModel

ARTEMIS

Within Visual Range (WVR) Air Combat Constructive Simulation.FORTRAN 77.100,000+ LOC.

Beyond Visual Range (BVR) Air Combat Constructive Simulation.FORTRAN 77 + dMARS Intelligent BDI Agents (AAII).Split between physical models and reasoning models.

Distributed, component based architecture with intelligent wrapping.Designed for automated integration of legacy components.dMARS, C++, CORBA.

Object oriented simulation framework written in C++ (and dMARS).Designed for integrating legacy components for AEW&C acquisition.Brought about changes in software engineering culture.

BattleModel variant for future air combat analysis (F-35A JSF).Hybrid object and agent oriented architecture C++ and JACK (Java).First introduction of team oriented agent programming constructs.


Fighter Computational Modelling

PLATFORM

RADAR

RCS IRS

RWR

WEAPONSRADIO

DATALINK

CM

PILOT

EW


Computational Models of Fighter Systems

ComputationalFluid Dynamics Water Tunnel Wind Tunnel

IRSMeasurement RCS ModellingIRS Modelling

RCSMeasurement

E3 Counter Measures

DUEL GEMM MECA DUEL 3DPK Modelling

SensorModels


Simulation Supporting Air Combat Acquisitions

F/A-18F EA-18G F-35A

Complex Multi-Billion $AUD Acquisitions Supported by Operations Research Simulation

DSTO SME

DSTO AnalystsAir CombatDomain Knowledge

Software Engineering ofAir Combat Simulation Technology

Research into Autonomous & Intelligent Agents and Artificial Intelligence for modelling fighter pilot decision making extending back over 20 years.

Integrating Components Sourced Across DSTO Built on Foundation of 20 Year R&D Program


Modelling Tactics and Situational Awareness

Exercises

MANTACSIM

So (Sci) ACG

F/A-18 PAXAgent

Architecture

BeliefsDesiresIntentions plans

Reasoning Architecture

Observe (situation awareness)Orient (situation assessment)Decide (course of action)Act (tactics)


Beliefs, Desires and Intentions (BDI) Model

Internal mental attitudes of a rational BDI agent (or an agent’s mental state)

Beliefs: what the pilot believes about the world, itself and other agents (informational)

Desires: What the agents what to achieve (motivational)

Intentions: how the agents tries to achieves its desires (deliberational)


Rational Agency and BDI

Folk Psychology – Daniel Dennet

Rational Agency – Michael Bratman

Formal Logical Framework – Rao and Georgeff

Specific BDI Programming Languages

– PRS, dMARS, JACK, Co-JACK, JAM, GORITE etc.


Computer

Science

Cognitive

Sciences

Knowledge

Engineering

Software

Engineering

Artificial

Intelligence

Intelligent

Agents

Multi-Agent

Systems Autonomy

Programming

Languages

Simulation

Architectures

Situation

Awareness

MICHAEL

PAPASIMEON

Modelling

Agent-Environment

Interactions in

Multi-Agent

Simulations with

Affordances

DON

PERUGINI

Agents for Logistics:

a Provisional

Agreement

Approach

EMMA

NORLING

Modelling Human

Behaviour with

BDI Agents

CLINT

HEINZE

Modelling Intention

Recognition for

Intelligent Agent

Systems

DAVID

KINNY

Fundamentals of

Agent Computation

Theory: Semantics

DAVID

MORELY

Semantics of

Actions, Agents

and Environments

GIL

TIDHAR

Organisation

Oriented Systems:

Theory and

Practice

SAMIN

KARIM

Acquiring Plans

Within Resource

Bounded Agents

SUSANNAH

SOON

Multi-Agent

Coordination:

A Graph Based

Approach to

Intention

Recognition

TODD

MANSELL

Planning Under

Uncertainty

RAYMOND

SO

Situation

Awareness in

Software Agents:

Theory & Practice

Programming Languages Simulation Frameworks

ARTEMIS

BattleModel

HAVE

SWARMM

Methods and Models

Ph

D S

tud

ies

OODA

Teams

and C3

Re

se

arc

h

PRS

AgentSpeak

dMARS-R

dMARS-C2

SimpleTeams

JACKTeams

OKRA

OODA

Cognitive Work Analysis

JACK-UML extensions

“The Four-Box Model”AOSE

Intention Oriented Analysis and Design

Naturalistic Decision Making

Recognition Primed Decisions


Integration

BRAWLER

http://www.prepar3d.com/

http://www.prepar3d.com/

http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=hrITQawrZKdcfM&tbnid=ev1aOz8yx1fZoM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.b3ta.com/challenge/squirrels/&ei=JYGvUpQxiYTKAf2-gKgF&psig=AFQjCNHfxFaU6RDO7vnc0wxwHl2dt3cxAA&ust=1387319952534386

http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=hrITQawrZKdcfM&tbnid=ev1aOz8yx1fZoM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.b3ta.com/challenge/squirrels/&ei=JYGvUpQxiYTKAf2-gKgF&psig=AFQjCNHfxFaU6RDO7vnc0wxwHl2dt3cxAA&ust=1387319952534386


External Engagement 2013

Statistical Analysis of

Simulation Data

Statistical Consulting Centre

Department of Mathematics & Statistics

GPU Sensor Modelling

Data Mining

Air Combat Simulation

Interaction &

Visualisation

Vacation Students

BRAWLER

Brawler Team

USAF/A9 @ The Pentagon

Air Combat Constructive Simulation

Analysis Methodology

Electronic Warfare Modelling

WSD

Weapon Systems & CM

WAMUG

POC: Russell Connell

AESA

Next-Gen AESA Model

NSID: Tim Coombs

John Whitrow

AD: Maria Vukovic

Mike Spataro

JOAD: Josef Zuk

Lyndon Benke

AMIEL

Flight Systems Branch

POC: Kevin McDonald

AOSC

Air Operations Simulation Centre

Integrated OR Experimentation

Analytics

AESA Radar Modelling

EW Modelling

General Computational Modelling


Example: Air Combat Analytical Capability

Enabling Research

S&T Capability

Development

Client Program

AnalysisF/A-18A+ F/A-18F EA-18G F-35AF-111

Simulation

Artificial Intelligence

CognitiveScience

ComputerScience

Multi-agentSystems

SituationAwareness Teams and C2

DSTO Tools

ExercisesDomain

Knowledge

External ToolsAustralian Tools Staff Training & Subject Matter Experts

In-House M&SCapability

MERLIN

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_Australia.svg


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_the_United_Kingdom.svg

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Analyst Workflow

The goal is to support the analyst across the entire air combat study workflow…

Scenario

Setup

Simulation

ExecutionAnalysis Reporting


Sample Chart: Engagement Outcome Map


Future Challenges in Modelling & Simulation

New Capabilities &Contested

EnvironmentsSituationalAwareness

TrustedAutonomy

Big Data Analysis &Computational

Statistics

Parallel Computingand HPC

IntegratedOperations Research


Exercise CoalitionVirtual Flag

Human In The Loop Air Combat Simulation

OperationsResearch

Simulation TechnologyResearch

Human SciencesResearch Training Research


Autonomy and Aerospace Operations Research

Autonomous CGFsBlue, Red & White Force

Automation

Autonomous WeaponsUAVs / RPVs

Airborne C4ISREWAutomation

Intelligent Agents inConstructive Simulation

of Air Operations

on the changing nature of air combat: real and simulated · on the changing nature of air combat:...

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