oito anos_english

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Inflation 1983-2001 (M onthly Broad N ationalC onsum erPrice Index -IPC A ) 14% 20% 37% 82% 21% 26% 47% 10% Jun-83 Jun-84 Jun-85 Jun-86 Jun-87 Jun-88 Jun-89 Jun-90 Jun-91 Jun-92 Jun-93 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 S ource:IB G E (B razilian Institute ofG eography and S tatistics)

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Page 1: Oito anos_english

Inflation 1983-2001 (Monthly Broad National Consumer Price Index - IPCA )

14%

20%

37%

82%

21%

26%

47%

10%

Jun-

83

Jun-

84

Jun-

85

Jun-

86

Jun-

87

Jun-

88

Jun-

89

Jun-

90

Jun-

91

Jun-

92

Jun-

93

Jun-

94

Jun-

95

Jun-

96

Jun-

97

Jun-

98

Jun-

99

Jun-

00

Jun-

01

Source: IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)

Page 2: Oito anos_english

Inflation 1994-2001 (Monthly Broad National Consumer Price Index - IPCA)

1.6%1.2%

6.8%

1.3%1.6%

1.1%

2.7%

Jul-

94

Oct

-94

Jan-

95

Apr

-95

Jul-

95

Oct

-95

Jan-

96

Apr

-96

Jul-

96

Oct

-96

Jan-

97

Apr

-97

Jul-

97

Oct

-97

Jan-

98

Apr

-98

Jul-

98

Oct

-98

Jan-

99

Apr

-99

Jul-

99

Oct

-99

Jan-

00

Apr

-00

Jul-

00

Oct

-00

Jan-

01

Apr

-01

Jul-

01

Oct

-01

Source: IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)

Page 3: Oito anos_english

Household Income per capita (R$ for 1999)

211

269

245

307

1981-84 1985-89 1990-94* 1995-00

Source: IPEA (Institute of Applied Economic Research) on the basis of PNAD (National Sample Household Survey)

Page 4: Oito anos_english

Employment average monthly yield (R$ for December 2001)

674

610

680

723

800

858876 872

824 819

788

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Source: IPEA (Institute of Applied Economic Research) on the basis of PNAD (National Sample Household Survey)

Page 5: Oito anos_english

Minimum salary/basic basket ratio

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

Jun-

94

Jun-

95

Jun-

96

Jun-

97

Jun-

98

Jun-

99

Jun-

00

Jun-

01Source: DIEESE (Inter-Trade Union Department of Statistics and Socio-economic Studies)

Page 6: Oito anos_english

Minimum salary (annual averages, deflated by Consumer Price Index - FIPE,Economic Research Institute, in R$ for April 2000)

160.79

117.33

170.48

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1940

1942

1944

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Source: IPEA (Institute of Applied Economic Research), Discussion papers n. 839. Miguel N. Foguel, Lauro Ramos and Francisco Carneiro. Updated to include 2001.

Page 7: Oito anos_english

Population below the poverty line (millions)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Source: IPEA (Institute of Applied Economic Research) on the basis of PNAD. 1991, 1994 and 2000, estimate DISOC/IPEA

Poor Destitute

Page 8: Oito anos_english

Share of the population below the poverty line (%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Source: IPEA (Institute of Applied Economic Research) on the basis of PNAD. 1991, 1994 and 2000: estimate DISOC/IPEA

Poor Destitute

Page 9: Oito anos_english

Food production (growth1994-2000)

Fisheries 5%Beef 35%Poltry 86%Pork 57%Cheese 41%Beer 75%Soft drinks 106%Yogurt 82%Cookies 51%

Source: ABIA

Page 10: Oito anos_english

Consumption of Portland cement (millions of tons)

27

2425 25

28

35

38

40 4039

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Source: Sinduscon (S. Paulo State Civil Construction Trade Union)

Page 11: Oito anos_english

Availability of household goods

18%

12%

24%

74%

72%

85%

95%

38%

20%

33%

88%

83%

90%

97%

Telephone

Freezer

Washing machine

Television

Fridge

Radio

Cooker

Source: IPEA (Institute of Applied Economic Research), PNAD

1992 1999

Page 12: Oito anos_english

Schooling services by age group

65%

89%92%

97%

95%

89%85%

69%

78%

59%

66%

48%

33%

27%22%

20%

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

Source: INEP (National Review of Secondary Education)

7 to 10 11 to 14 15 to 17 18 to 24

Page 13: Oito anos_english

Net Educational Services

65%

78%82%

89%

30%

44%

61%

50%

14%19%

34%

23%

6% 5% 6% 8%

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

Source: INEP (National Review of Secondary Education)

1st to 4th grade 5th to 8th grade Secondary School Higher Education

Page 14: Oito anos_english

Illiteracy

16% 16%13%11%

20%

17%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

Source: IPEA (Institute of Applied Economic Research) on the basis of PNAD

15 year olds + 10 to 14 year olds

Page 15: Oito anos_english

Schooling services for 7 to 14 year olds by fifth of income

93%

75%

83%

94%

87%

97%

93%

97%99%

1992 1999

Source INEP (National Review of Secondary Education)

1st fifth 2nd fifth 3rd fifth 4th fifth 5th fifth

Page 16: Oito anos_english

Schooling services for 7 to14 year olds by race

99%98%

97%

91%

95%

83%

93%

79%

87%

77%

1992 1999

Source: INEP (National Review of Secondary Education)

Yellow White Dusky Black Indigenous

Page 17: Oito anos_english

Schooling services for 7 to 14 years olds of the first fifth of income by region

94%

82%

79%

93%

83%

78%

92%

71%

1992 1999

Source INEP (National Reviwe of Secondary Education). (*) Excluding the rural population.

Southeast Sourth Centre-West Northeast North*

Page 18: Oito anos_english

Infant mortality (per thousand babies born alive)

41

60

52

33

24 20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Source: IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)

Brazil Northeast North Southeast Centre-West South

Page 19: Oito anos_english

AIDS mortality (deaths per 100,000 inhabitants)

4.49

3.13

1.67

6.99

5.10

6.20

7.09

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1994

1995

Source: Ministry for Health

Page 20: Oito anos_english

Deaths by external causes (thousands)

115

60

75

90

105

120

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

*200

0

Source:

Page 21: Oito anos_english

Life expectancy at birth (years)

67.2

66.3

68.6

62.0

64.2

63.1

65.8

57.9

69.8

69.1

71.0

65.1

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Source: IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)

Brazil North Northeast Sourtheast South Centre-West

Page 22: Oito anos_english

Human Development Index (HDI)

0.676

0.690

0.710

0.734

0.750

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

Source: UNDP

Page 23: Oito anos_english

Gross Domestic Product Variation

-0.5%

1.4%

-0.14%

2.6%

1.9%

3.3%

3.1%

3.0%

GDP per capita

GDP

Industry

Farming and Cattle-Raising

Source: PNAD

81-92 93-00

Page 24: Oito anos_english

Grain production (millions of tons)

59

69 69

77

82

74

7877

82 83

98101

1990

/91

1991

/92

1992

/93

1993

/94

1994

/95

1995

/96

1996

/97

1997

/98

1998

/99

1999

/00

2000

/01

2001

/02

Source: IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), CONAB (National Victual Company). 2001/2002 estimate

Page 25: Oito anos_english

Meat production (millions of tons)

9.2

9.8

11.2

11.8 11.912.3

13.6

14.5

15.5

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Source: CONAB (National Victual Company)

Page 26: Oito anos_english

Colour TVs production (millions)

2.4 2.3

3.4

5.0

6.1

8.5

7.8

5.8

4.0

5.3

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Source: ABINEE (Brazilian Electric and Electronic Industry Association) and ELETROS

Page 27: Oito anos_english

Vehicle production (millions)

1.0

1.1

1.4

1.61.6

1.8

2.1

1.6

1.4

1.7

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Source: ANFAVEA (National Association of Vehicle Manufacture)

Page 28: Oito anos_english

Foreign Tourists arrivals (millions)

1.92.0

2.72.8

4.8

5.15.3

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Source: Embratur (Brazilian Tourist Office)

Page 29: Oito anos_english

Domestic Flight Passengers (millions)

13.2

16.8

19.5

21.3

26.5 26.7

28.5

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Source: Embratur (Brazilian Tourist Office)

Page 30: Oito anos_english

Investiments (average annual variation)

3.5%

2.9%

4.5%

-0.5%

-0.7%

0.0%

Gross formation of fixedcapital

Civil Construction

Machiney and equipment

Source: IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), National Accounts

Average 94-00 Average 91-93

Page 31: Oito anos_english

Importations/Consumption of Machinery and equipment

21%

25% 24% 25%

31%

35%

41% 41%

46%

43%

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

*200

0Source: IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), National Accounts

Page 32: Oito anos_english

Investment in industry (1991=1 index)

1.00.9

1.0

1.3

1.6

1.8

2.4

2.2

1.92.0

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Source: IPEA (Institute of Applied Economic Research)

_

Page 33: Oito anos_english

Direct Inward Investment (US$ billions)

8.1

13.7

22.719.8

26.1

21.6

6.72.6

5.2 6.18.8

1.1

1.12.1 1.3 2.1

4.4

10.8

19.0

28.9 28.6

32.8

22.6

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

*

Source: Central Bank of Brazil. (*) Jan./nov.

Privatisation The Rest

Page 34: Oito anos_english

Brazilian participation in the world direct investment flow

0.6%

1.0%

0.5%

0.8%

1.3%

2.8%

4.0%4.2%

2.7% 2.6%

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Source: UNCTAD

Page 35: Oito anos_english

Foreign Trade (US$ billions)

15

35

55

75

95

115

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Source: SECEX (Foreign Trade Secretariat)/MDIC (Ministry for Development, Industry and Foreign Trade)

Total Flow Exports Imports

Page 36: Oito anos_english

Importation by modality (US$ billions)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Source: SECEX (Foreign Trade Secretariat)/MDIC (Ministry for Development, Industry and Foreign Trade)

Intermediary goods Capital goods Consumer goods Fuel

Page 37: Oito anos_english

Exports by class of product (US$ millions)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Source: SECEX (Foreign Trade Secretariat)/MDIC (Ministry for Development, Industry and Foreign Trade)

Manufactured Basic Semi-manufactured

Page 38: Oito anos_english

Export by intensity factor

245

190

170

142

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Source: Roberto Iglesias, Brazilian Magazine of Foreign Trade, FUNCEX (Foundation-Centre of Foreign Trade) n. 67, june 2001

Technology Manpower Natural resources Capital

Page 39: Oito anos_english

Employment productivity in the economy (annual variables)

-0.4%

-1.2%

2.6%2.2%

0.4%

5.2%

2.4%2.2% 2.3%

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

Source: IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), National Accounts. Prepared by IBQP-PR (Brazilian Institute For Quality and Productivity - Parana State)

Page 40: Oito anos_english

Grain Productivity (1980/81=100 index)

100

120

140

160

180

200

1990

/91

1991

/92

1992

/93

1993

/94

1994

/95

1995

/96

1996

/97

1997

/98

1998

/99

1999

/00

2000

/01

Source: SPE (Economic Policy Secretariat)/Ministry of Finance based on the CONAB data

Page 41: Oito anos_english

Physical productivity of employment in industry (1991=100 index)

131

203

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Source: IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), Monthly Industrial Survey, Physical Production

Page 42: Oito anos_english

ISO 9000 Certificate Issues

18

17

61

129

370

353

636

892

1236

1573

1302

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000*

Source: ABNT (Brazilian Association of Technical Standards)/Inmetro

Page 43: Oito anos_english

Population in employment in the metropolitan regions (millions)

15.1 15.015.2

15.516.0

16.3 16.4 16.3 16.4

17.1 17.2

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

*

Source: IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), Monthly Employment Survey

Page 44: Oito anos_english

Unemployment rates in the metropolitan regions

4.8%

5.7%

5.3%5.1%

4.6%

5.4%5.7%

7.6% 7.6%

7.1%

6.2%

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

*

Source: IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), Monthly Employment Survey

Page 45: Oito anos_english

Employment schooling degrees in the metropolitan regions (% of total)

23%

39%

26%26%

33%

21%

19%

14%

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Source: IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), Monthly Employment Survey

0-4 5-8 9-11 >=12

Page 46: Oito anos_english

Internet users in Brazil (millions)

0

3

6

9

12

Jan-

96

May

-96

Sep

-96

Jan-

97

May

-97

Sep

-97

Jan-

98

May

-98

Sep

-98

Jan-

99

May

-99

Sep

-99

Jan-

00

May

-00

Sep

-00

Jan-

01

May

-01

Sep

-01

Source: various surveys. Prepared by www.e-commerce.org.br

Page 47: Oito anos_english

Enrolments in Higher Education

584 690833

934971

1,5451,5191,661

2,378

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

Source: INEP (National Review of Secondary Education)

State Private

Page 48: Oito anos_english

Average annual growth in higher education enrolments

1.1%1.8%

7.4%

1.9%

3.4%3.8%

0.6% 0.8%

9.7%

1980/89 1989/94 1994/99

Fonte: INEP

Total State Private

Page 49: Oito anos_english

Brazilian articles in scientific journals

3.9

4.6 4.54.8

5.56.1

6.7

7.9

8.99.5

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Source: Statistics and Indicators Co-ordinating Body/Ministry for Science and Technology on the basis of data of the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI), National Science Indicators

Page 50: Oito anos_english

Federal expenditure in social programs (% of GDP)

11.1%

11.9%

12.4%

11.3%

9.3%

11.2%

9.7%

10.7%

12.3%

13.1%13.3%

13.9%14.2%14.1%14.0%

11.4%11.3%

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

Source: 1980-89: IPEA/DISOC. Fabrício Oliveira, Discussion papers n. 649, 1999.Data for 1990-92 unavailable. 1993-99: IPEA/DISOC, based on the monthly data of SIAFI/SIDOR.

Page 51: Oito anos_english

Federal expenditure in social programs (R$ billion December 1999)

93.3

98.6

120.0

124.6

132.1

137.6 137.5

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Source: IPEA / DISOC, based on the monthly data provided by SIAFI / SIDOR

Page 52: Oito anos_english

Federal expenditure in social programs(R$ billion June 2001)

31

81

107108

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Source: SPE/MF. Deflator: IPCA

Page 53: Oito anos_english

Federal expenditure on social programs by budget area, not including salaries (anual averages in R$ billion for June 2001)

Social Security Health Care Education Labour benefits

Housing and Urban

Development

Total expenditure on social programs

Total federal expenditure

1990-1994 28.4 7.1 4.3 4.5 0.1 44.5 72.4

1995-1999 62.6 15.6 9.0 5.8 0.4 93.4 139.6

Growth + 120% + 118% + 112% + 28% + 208% + 110% + 93%

Source: Finance Ministry