Odds and Outs – How to play Draws

Strategy: SNG / Tournaments

Introduction

► Draws = incomplete hands that still need a community card

► Odds▫ Probability that one of your outs will be dealt as a community card.

► Outs▫ All cards that could improve your hand.

► Pot Odds▫ Ration of possible profit to bet you need to call▫ Risk – Reward Ratio

► Playing your draws in the different stages of the tournament

► Fold equity▫ Chance that the opponent will fold after your bet

Outs – what cards will help you?

OESDBoth an ace and a 6 would complete your draw.

► Example A

► Your Outs

Monster DrawEvery ace, 6 and all remaining hearts would give you a monster here.

► Example B

► Your Outs

Other Examples

► Flush draw▫ 9 Outs

► OESD▫ 8 Outs

► Two Overcards▫ 6 Outs

► A Pair▫ Chance of getting a

3oak or two pairs▫ 5 Outs

► Gutshot▫ 4 Outs

Odds

► Odds – What is the probability of completing my draws?

► Calculation▫ 52 – 5 = 47 cards left in deck▫ 8 cards are helpful (outs)▫ 47 – 8 = 39 cards are not helpful▫ Odds: 39 : 8 -> approx. 5:1▫ Flop/river odds: 2:1

► Your Outs

► Typical Draws and their Odds▫ Gutshot 11:1

5:1▫ OESD 5:1 2:1▫ Flush draw 4:1 2:1▫ 2 Overcards 7:1 3:1▫ Flush draw + OESD: 2:1 1:1

Pot Odds

► Pot odds – Can I play my hand profitably?

► Calculation▫ Pot before opponent’s bet: $100▫ Opponent’s bet: $20▫ Possible profit for you: $120▫ If you invest $20 ▫ Pot odds: 120 : 20 (6 : 1)▫ Odds on turn: 5:1▫ Here: Call!

► Pot odds better than odds of incomplete hand – profit

► Pot odds worse than odds of incomplete hand – loss

► Special characteristic of tournament – buying more chips not possible

Playing draws in the early stage of the tournament

► Number of opponents▫ The more opponents, the more defensive

► Position▫ “Out of position” defensive play preferred▫ Strategy for the turn

► Fold equity▫ Especially in very early stage and rarely

present with low buy-ins

► Pot size▫ Smaller in early stage of tournament- not

worth showing aggression

Playing draws in the early stage of the tournament

► Your Odds▫ Correct Odds – Calling bet possible▫ Pay attention to stack size

► Your Outs▫ The more outs, the better the opportunity

to call

► Tip▫ Don’t take too big a risk▫ Bet on free cards

Playing draws in the middle stage of the tournament

► Number of opponents▫ The more opponents, the more chips in pot - increase aggression

► Fold equity▫ Decisive relevance of fold equity▫ Observe action before you

► Pot size▫ Pot size often leads to folding or all-In

► Your Outs▫ The more outs, the more aggressive the

style of play

► Tip▫ Increase aggression depending on pot size

► Reads on opponents▫ Better estimation of fold equity

Playing draws in the late stage of the tournament

► Fold equity▫ Smaller stacks – less fold equity

► Pot size▫ Size usually sufficient for a direct all-in

► Your Outs▫ The more outs, the greater the opportunity to go all-In

► Tip▫ Hardly any fold equity present ▫ Stack size and opponents’ style of play decisive

► Your Odds▫ Little relevance, as usually in push/fold mode ▫ Correct odds are rarely present

► Who has taken the initiative?▫ Initiative + strong draw = all-In▫ No initiative + opponent’s all-in – stronger draw needed

Sample Hands

► OESD in the early stage of the tournament

► Flop (Pot 80)▫ Hero checks▫ BB checks▫ UTG bets 60▫ MP2 calls 60▫ Hero calls 60

► Preflop▫ UTG calls 20, 2 folds, MP2 calls 20, 3 folds, Hero completes, BB

checks

► Stack size▫ BU 1500▫ Hero 1500▫ BB 1500▫ UTG 1500▫ UTG+1 1500▫ MP 1 1500▫ MP 2 1500▫ MP 3 1500▫ CO 1500

Sample Hands

► Flush draw in the early stage of the tournament

► Flop (Pot 195)▫ BB checks▫ Hero bets 120▫ BB raises to 1340 (All-in)▫ Hero folds

► Preflop▫ 1 fold, Hero raises to 90, 4 folds, BB calls 60

► Stack size▫ MP 2 1740▫ CO 5705▫ BU 1340▫ SB 345▫ BB 1430▫ UTG 1470▫ Hero 1470

Sample Hands

► Monster draw in the middle stage of the tournament

► Flop (Pot 800)▫ SB checks▫ Hero bets 200▫ CO raises to 2080 (All-in)▫ Button folds▫ SB folds▫ Hero ?

► Preflop▫ UTG folds, CO raises to 200, Button calls 200, SB calls 150, Hero calls 100

► Stack size▫ UTG 1730▫ CO 2280▫ BU 2728▫ SB 10952▫ Hero 2310

Sample Hands

► OESD in the middle stage of the tournament

► Flop (Pot 600)▫ SB bets 300▫ Hero raises to 1690 (All-in)

► Preflop▫ UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls 200, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds,

SB calls 100, Hero checks

► Stack size ▫ UTG 680▫ UTG+1 2579▫ MP 1 1739▫ MP 2 2196▫ CO 3403▫ BU 1740▫ SB 5773▫ Hero 1890

Sample Hands

► Flush draw in the late stage of the tournament

► Flop (Pot 600)▫ SB checks▫ Hero bets 400▫ Button raises to 800▫ SB folds▫ Hero?

► Preflop▫ CO folds, Button calls 200, SB calls 100, Hero checks

► Stack size▫ CO 2355▫ BU 5030▫ SB 3205▫ Hero 2910

Conclusion

► Odds▫ Ratio helpful cards : non-helpful cards

► Pot Odds▫ Ratio possible profit : bet

► Playing profitably▫ Pot odds better than odds

Good Luck!

► Being aware of the special characteristic of tournaments▫ Buying more chips not possible ▫ Protect your chips, keep risk low