Observed Plata River level and wind field change

Atributtion and MCG scenarios

Vicente Barros San José de Costa Rica

May 27, 2003

Area of concern

MEAN LEVELat Buenos Aires Port: 1.7 0.1 mm/año

(D’Onofrio, SHN)

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Tiempo (años)

Niv

el d

el a

gu

a (m

m)

Nivel medio anual Nivel medio filtrado Recta de regresión

y = 15.7x + 660.06

R2 = 0.6051

y = 19.567x + 713.61

R2 = 0.8219

y = 15.8x + 779.44

R2 = 0.8601

y = 15.85x + 800.19

R2 = 0.918

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

Alt

ura

(m

m)

SUMMER

AUITUMN

WINTER

SPRING

Seasonal trends of River level at Buenos Aires port (1912-2001)

Fuente: D’Onofrio y Fiore (2002)

y = 14.058x + 965.21

R2 = 0.4472

y = 9.8291x + 906.56

R2 = 0.3508

y = 17.238x + 862.84

R2 = 0.4816

y = 11x + 947.39

R2 = 0.4609

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1938

/194

7

1948

/195

7

1958

/196

7

1968

/197

7

1978

/198

7

1988

/199

7

Alt

ura

(m

m)

Mar-Abr-May Jun-Jul-Ago Sep-Oct-Nov Dic-Ene-Feb

Seasonal trends of River level at Montevideo

Observed changes in sea level pressure and wind fields

1951-1960 1991-2000

AA

year

latit

ude

-40

-38

-36

-34

-32

-30

-28

-26

-24

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

NCEP Station data

Figure 2. Annual mean position of the maximum sea level pressure on the South American coast

derived from the NCEP reanalyses and station data

-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0

PCA 1 - NCEP - 46.1 %

-45.0

-42.5

-40.0

-37.5

-35.0

-32.5

-30.0

-27.5

-25.0

-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0

PCA 2 - NCEP - 45.1%

-45.0

-42.5

-40.0

-37.5

-35.0

-32.5

-30.0

-27.5

-25.0

a ) b )

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

MODEL 1MODEL 2

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

MODEL 1MODEL 2

c ) d )

F ig u r e 3 . a ) P C A 1 (M o d e l 1 ) , b ) P C A 2 (M o d e l 2 ) , c ) S e r ie s o f F a c to r lo a d in g s r e la te d to M o d e l 1 a n d M o d e l 2 , d ) I d e m c ) b u t c o n s id e r in g S u m m e r s e a s o n .

MODEL 1 MODEL 2

TOTAL 46.1 45.1

SUMMER 5.2 18.2

AUTUMN 15.1 7.5

WINTER 20.7 2.9

SPRING 5.1 16.4

Table 1: Total percentages of variance associated to each MODEL and their respective percentages of variance for each season.

Atributtion of the southward shift of the western border of the South Atlantic high

model Institution periodHADCM3 Hadley Centre  for Climate Prediction

and Research – REINO UNIDO1950-2099

CSIRO-mk2 Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research

Organisation - AUSTRALIA

1961-2100

ECHAM4 Max Planck Institute für Meteorologie - ALEMANIA

1990-2100

GFDL-R30 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory – ESTADOS UNIDOS

1961-2100

NCAR-PCM National Centre for Atmospheric Research  - ESTADOS UNIDOS

1980-2099

CCCma Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis - CANADÁ

1900-2100

Validation of Climate Models

Validation of GCM experiments:Sea level pressure

- 6 5 - 6 0 - 5 5 - 5 0 - 4 5- 4 5

- 4 0

- 3 5

- 3 0

- 2 5

- 2 0

- 6 5 - 6 0 - 5 5 - 5 0 - 4 5- 4 5

- 4 0

- 3 5

- 3 0

- 2 5

- 2 0

NCEP (observed) (1950-2000) HADCM3 (1950-2000)

Campos medios anuales

corr

ela

tion c

oeffic

ient

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

JanuaryFebruary

MarchApril

MayJune

JulyAugust

SeptemberOctober

NovemberDecember

HADCM3

CSIRO

CCCMA

NCAR

ECHAM4

GFDL

LMD

-65 -60 -55 -50 -45-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

Climate model validation:

sea level pressure

The models that best represent the mean sea level pressure and its seasonal variability are:

HADCM3

GFDL-R30ECHAM4

CSIRO-Mk2

 

  

Figure 6: Model 1 (upper panel) y Model 2 (bottom panel) of HADCM3, CSIRO and GFDL GCM models.

-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0

PCA 2 - HADCM3 - 42.8%

-45.0

-42.5

-40.0

-37.5

-35.0

-32.5

-30.0

-27.5

-25.0

-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0

PCA 1 - HADCM3 - 47.1%

-45.0

-42.5

-40.0

-37.5

-35.0

-32.5

-30.0

-27.5

-25.0

-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0

PCA 1 - CSIRO - 52.3%

-45.0

-42.5

-40.0

-37.5

-35.0

-32.5

-30.0

-27.5

-25.0

-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0

PCA 2 - CSIRO - 43.9%

-45.0

-42.5

-40.0

-37.5

-35.0

-32.5

-30.0

-27.5

-25.0

-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0

PCA 1 - GFDL - 51.5%

-45.0

-42.5

-40.0

-37.5

-35.0

-32.5

-30.0

-27.5

-25.0

-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0

PCA 2 - GFDL - 37.0%

-45.0

-42.5

-40.0

-37.5

-35.0

-32.5

-30.0

-27.5

-25.0

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

HADCM3CSIROGFDL

MODEL 1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

HADCM3CSIROGFDL

MODEL 2

Time series of factor loadings

related to GCM models.

GCMs, only driven by GHGs and aerosol concentration trends, show the same trend as the observed SLP field

Further evidences:

Future scenarios

-66.0 -63.5 -61.0 -58.5 -56.0 -53.5 -51.0 -48.5 -46.0

PCA 2 - HADCM3 - 40.4%

-45.0

-42.5

-40.0

-37.5

-35.0

-32.5

-30.0

-27.5

-25.0

-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0

PCA 1 - HADCM3 - 49.8%

-45.0

-42.5

-40.0

-37.5

-35.0

-32.5

-30.0

-27.5

-25.0

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

MODEL2 MODEL 1

HADCM3

-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0

CPA 1 - CSIRO - 49.4%

-45.0

-42.5

-40.0

-37.5

-35.0

-32.5

-30.0

-27.5

-25.0

-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0

CPA 2 - CSIRO - 46.5%

-45.0

-42.5

-40.0

-37.5

-35.0

-32.5

-30.0

-27.5

-25.0

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

MODEL 1MODEL 2

CSIRO

-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0

PCA 2 - ECHAM - 38.3%

-45.0

-42.5

-40.0

-37.5

-35.0

-32.5

-30.0

-27.5

-25.0

-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0

CPA 1 - ECHAM - 41.4%

-45.0

-42.5

-40.0

-37.5

-35.0

-32.5

-30.0

-27.5

-25.0

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

F i g u r e 7 : a ) M o d e l 1 ( l e f t c o l u m n ) y M o d e l 2 ( c e n t e r c o l u m n ) o b t a i n e d b y H A D C M 3 , C S I R O a n d E C H A M G C M m o d e l s . F o r e c a s t e d 2 0 0 1 / 2 1 0 0 . b ) , c ) , d ) y e )

( r i g h t c o l u m n ) T i m e s e r i e s o f m e a n d e c a d a l e x p l a i n e d v a r i a n c e r e l a t e d t o a l l t h e G C M m o d e l s c o n s i d e r i n g t h e c l i m a t o l o g y a n d f o r e c a s t e d p e r i o d .

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

MODEL 2MODEL1

ECHAM

HADCM3 MODEL 1 MODEL 2 1951

2000 2001 2050

2051 2099

TOTAL 1951 2000

2001 2050

2051 2099

TOTAL

SUMMER 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 7.8 8.1 7.9 23.8 AUTUMN 4.4 3.5 2.3 10.2 3.1 3.9 4.7 11.7 WINTER 7.5 7.8 7.3 22.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8

SPRING 3.3 2.5 1.3 7.1 3.7 4.4 5.5 13.6

CSIRO MODEL 1 MODEL 2 1961

2000 2001 2050

2051 2099

TOTAL 1961 2000

2001 2050

2051 2099

TOTAL

SUMMER 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.8 6.4 8.6 8.5 23.5 AUTUMN 5.2 5.9 4.4 15.5 1.7 2.7 4.0 8.4 WINTER 7.0 8.8 8.5 24.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3

SPRING 2.7 3.0 2.9 8.6 3.9 5.2 5.2 14.3

ECHAM MODEL 1 MODEL 2 1991

2000 2001 2050

2051 2099

TOTAL 1991 2000

2001 2050

2051 2099

TOTAL

SUMMER 0.03 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.8 10.2 10.3 22.3 AUTUMN 1.6 5.6 3.7 10.9 0.3 3.4 4.9 8.6

WINTER 2.2 10.5 9.5 22.2 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.2

SPRING 0.7 2.2 1.3 4.2 0.6 3.7 4.8 9.1

Table 4: Interannual Variability of the percentages of variance associated to Model 1 (left column) and Model 2 (right column), and

their respective percentages of variance for Climatology and Forecasted samples, using HADCM3, CSIRO, GFDL and ECHAM

GCM models.

-65 -60 -55 -50 -45

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-65 -60 -55 -50 -45

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-201990-2000 2050-2099

Sea level pressure fields:ECHAM4 experiment

Campos medios anuales

( F O R E C A S T E D 2 0 0 1 / 2 0 5 0 - C L I M A T O L O G Y ) A N N U A L

H A D C M 3

-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0-45.0

-42.5

-40.0

-37.5

-35.0

-32.5

-30.0

-27.5

-25.0

C S I R O

-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0-45.0

-42.5

-40.0

-37.5

-35.0

-32.5

-30.0

-27.5

-25.0

E C H A M

-67.5 -65.0 -62.5 -60.0 -57.5 -55.0 -52.5 -50.0 -47.5 -45.0-45.0

-42.5

-40.0

-37.5

-35.0

-32.5

-30.0

-27.5

-25.0

( F O R E C A S T E D 2 0 5 1 / 2 0 9 9 - C L I M A T O L O G Y ) A N N U A L

( F O R E C A S T E D 2 0 5 1 / 2 0 9 9 - C L I M A T O L O G Y ) A N N U A L

H A D C M 3

-67 .5 -65 .0 -62 .5 -60 .0 -57 .5 -55 .0 -52 .5 -50 .0 -47 .5 -45 .0-45 .0

-42 .5

-40 .0

-37 .5

-35 .0

-32 .5

-30 .0

-27 .5

-25 .0

C S I R O

-67 .5 -65 .0 -62 .5 -60 .0 -57 .5 -55 .0 -52 .5 -50 .0 -47 .5 -45 .0-45 .0

-42 .5

-40 .0

-37 .5

-35 .0

-32 .5

-30 .0

-27 .5

E C H A M

-67 .5 -65 .0 -62 .5 -60 .0 -57 .5 -55 .0 -52 .5 -50 .0 -47 .5 -45 .0-45 .0

-42 .5

-40 .0

-37 .5

-35 .0

-32 .5

-30 .0

-27 .5

-25 .0

Average(55°-57.5°W) Meridional gradient between 3?°S and 3?°S

Model/Reanalysis 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1081-1990 1991-2000 2001-2050 2051-2099

NCEP 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.4 ---- ----

HADLEY 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.9

CSIRO --- 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7

GFDL --- 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 2.3

ECHAM --- --- --- --- 1.7 2.0 2.3

The end