numeracy for journos

1

“Writing The Numbers”

Tom JohnsonInstitute for Analytic JournalismSanta Fe, New Mexicot o m @ j t j o h n s o n . c o m

2 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010

“Theory of Journalistic Process

Every potential story has both quantitative and qualitative feedstock

Quantitative often essential for context; degree of change; historical evolution


“Theory of Journalistic Process

We teach the 5Ws & H; also drill into students: How many? How big? How much? How to measure change in these?

May decide NOT to use these, but must be part of research/reporting


"Theory of Journalistic Process"

Data In Analysis Info Out Find and retrieve data; (log URLs)

Always work with COPY of original downloaded data Always attach URL or other source notes

to data


Basic "Theory of Process"

Maintain logbook of process and methods in cleaning and analyzing

Save dataviz product to use with story


Massaging Data

Gather quantitative data Estimate Clean data Count and categorize Analyze

Categorical change (proportion) Change over time (% of change) Statistical relationships and significance

Write it!


Think quantitatively; think visually

Numeric quantitative analysis: Add, subtract, multiply, divide Simple statistics, then more complex

Visual quantitative analysis: Chart and graphs Maps

Visual analysis = multiple values: Understand phenomena and its context Use visuals to show the story


Putting words to the numbers

Writing numbers in first instance: <100 = hard numbers Btwn 100 and 1,000 % and hard data >1,000 percentage

Down in story, always supply hard numbers

Post ALL the data on the web; include URL at end of story


Putting words to the numbers

Avoid placing two quantities side-by-side

“In 2010, 307,674 ticket-buyers showed up at the Mile-High Stadium.”


Write with the flow of time

Western literacy culture thinks/moves left to right: Calendars (usually) Grade school “Age of Exploration” Timeline tools: sometimes vertical but

more often left to right. Ergo,

Construct sentences with numbers in “from past [data] present [data]” form


Is there an editor in the house?

Source:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/us/20crime.html?scp=1&sq=arizona%20crime%20statistics&st=cse

“For instance, statistics show that even as Arizona’s population swelled, buoyed in part by illegal immigrants funneling across the border, violent crime rates declined, to 447 incidents per 100,000 residents in 2008, the most recent year for which comprehensive data is available from the F.B.I. In 2000, the rate was 532 incidents per 100,000.”


Bad construction

Because most recent data is first, context is not apparent

The reader has to doubleback direction in the flow of time


“For instance, statistics show that even as Arizona’s population swelled, buoyed in part by illegal immigrants funneling across the border, violent crime rates declined, to 447 incidents per 100,000 residents in 2008, …. In 2000, the rate was 532 incidents per 100,000.”


Terrible sentence construction

What’s going up? What’s going down? “may ALSO be???” Reader is whip-sawed figuring out what came first; and where

are we now


“But the rate for property crime … increased in the state to 4,082 per 100,000 residents in 2008 from 3,682 in 2000. Preliminary data for 2009 suggests that this rate may also be falling in the state’s biggest cities.”


But then comes the correction



…declined from 532 incidents per 100,000 in 2000 to 447 incidents per 100,000 residents in 2008

Correction: June 27, 2010

“An article last Sunday about the debate over immigration reform and how people’s perceptions sometimes run counter to crime statistics misstated the change in property crimes in Arizona between 2000 and 2008. The number of property crimes went down, not up.”


But then comes the correction



REWRITE

…declined from 532 incidents per 100,000 in 2000 to 447 incidents per 100,000 residents in 2008.


Bad construction

What’s the % of change? Would it help to literally see a trend

line?


“Nationally, the crime rate declined to 455 incidents per 100,000 people, from 507 in 2000.”


Quant. Analysis improves writing

Clumsy writing can be avoided if reporter first builds a vertical bar graph


The “Fundamental Five” Statistics

1. Calculating percent of change (New-Old) ÷ Old * 100 or ((new/old) –1) * 100

2. Calculating proportion: (# of parts ÷ TOTAL # of parts) * 100

= % of whole



3. Calculating Rates:(incidents ÷ population) * 10,000 (or 100,000)

4. Calculating Ratios: Take first of two numbers being

compared and divide by second. 600 ÷ 30 = 20 [Ratio is 20-to-1; if

fraction, round off]



5. Calculating Inflation: (CPI Now ÷ CPI Then) * Item Price Then =

Item then in today’s $$$[Tool: http://www.westegg.com/inflation/]

Calculating INFLATION RATECPI in 2000 is 3,500 CPI in 2001 is 4,500 What's the inflation rate?

4500 - 3500 = 10001000/3500 = .2857.....2857 * 100 = 28.57 is the INFLATION RATE


Some resources

Numeracy in the Newsroom http://newsnumeracy.wordpress.com/

Math and Statistics Toolbox Cards for Journalistshttp://www.notrainnogain.org/Train/Exer/Num/NUME.asp

175+ Data and Information Visualization Examples and Resourcehttp://www.meryl.net/2008/01/22/175-data-and-information-visualization-examples-and-resources/

http://newsnumeracy.wordpress.com/

http://www.notrainnogain.org/Train/Exer/Num/NUME.asp

http://www.notrainnogain.org/Train/Exer/Num/NUME.asp


Resources: Statistics

Niles, Robert. "Statistics Every Writer Should Know“http://www.robertniles.com/stats/

IRE Tipsheets: http://www.ire.org/resourcecenter/tipsheets.php


Resources: Data Visualization

FlowingData: http://flowingdata.com/ Flowing Data

http://flowingdata.com/2010/07/22/7-basic-rules-for-making-charts-and-graphs/

InfoViz Wiki:"Data Visualization Links“http://www.infovis-wiki.net/index.php?title=Data_Visualization_Link


PowerPoint file at:

slideshare.net/jtjohnson/numeracy-for-journos

Tom JohnsonInstitute for Analytic JournalismSanta Fe, New Mexicot o m @ j t j o h n s o n . c o m

numeracy for journos

Documents

recent data

comprehensive data

massaging data

preliminary data

crime statistics

data log urls

correction source

violent crime rates