nov-dec 2009

Nov.Dec 2009 IDRN www.iedro.org

International Data Rescue News (IDRN)Publication by IEDRO

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Bi-Monthly NewsletterNovember/December 2009

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Table of ContentsForecasting Stressors on Structures: Why Historic Weather Data is Key to General Safety (Page 1-2)

IEDRO’s Trip to El Salvador ()

Methods of Weather Data Collection: Radiosonde(Page 3)

Building Safe High Rises (Page 4)

About Weather Data (Page 5)

Building Safe Bridges(Page 6)

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Forecasting Stressors on Structures:Why Historic Weather Data Is Key to General Safety

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In October of 1998, Hurricane Mitch ripped through Central America as a category 5 hurricane with wind speeds reaching 180 mph. The storm brought torrential rainfall that caused extensive flooding and landslides that resulted in widespread structural damage and loss of human life in the thousands. Nicaragua alone saw an estimated 800,000 homes lost, over 70 bridges destroyed or damaged, 343 schools demolished, and 8000 km of highway affected. IEDRO aims to lower the damages and loss of human life in disasters such as Nicaragua. The collection and digitization of historic weather data can provide scientists and researchers the information they need to understand the future of severe storms in a changing global climate. In turn, engineers and architects will be able to predict weather stressors that will influence the design of man-made structures in a given area. The further back you can collect weather data, the further into the future you can forecast weather trends. Weather studies currently being conducted to determine the effects of global warming on storm severity and frequency are inconclusive because the weather data that has been collected does not span into the past far enough and for 2/3rds of the planet the data has not been collected and shared worldwide.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies is

among one of the institutions working on a climate model that can predict the occurrence of violent and severe storms as the Earth’s climate warms. Researchers use predicted temperature and humidity values to derive storm strength, especially those storms with significant wind shear that produce damaging winds at ground level that pose the greatest threat to structures. When the model was applied to a hypothetical future climate where CO2 levels are double and surface temperatures are 5°F warmer, it was found that severe storms can be expected with higher lightning flash rates. The frequency of lightning increases the chance for wildfires, compounding the structural damage risk. While the model has the ability to evaluate when conditions are favorable to the formation of such storms, more historical weather data is needed to establish the relationship between temperature, humidity, and storm strength.

At NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, scientists study the consequences global warming will have on the formation of extremely high clouds, or deep convective clouds. These types of clouds are associated with severe storms that produce torrential rain and hail and are found to increase as atmospheric temperatures rise. Five years of data recorded on these clouds thus far find that their frequency varies with temperature. For every 1°C increase in ocean surface temperature, the frequency of clouds is expected to increase 45%. At the present warming

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rate of .13°C increase per decade, researchers are predicting a 6% increase per decade of severe storms. This climate model is not, however, impermeable as the study is based on a short-term collection of data. More data is needed to accurately predict a trend in cloud and severe storm frequency.

The Carnegie Institution has been researching the effect of global warming on the Earth’s jet streams. Jet streams influence the path of storms and, in recent years, have been experiencing a shift. Carnegie researchers have conducted a twenty-three year study and found that jet streams in both hemispheres have risen in altitude and shifted towards the poles. The jet stream in the northern hemisphere, meanwhile, has weakened. These changes could impact major weather systems and massive populations. For

instance, jet streams inhibit the development of hurricanes. As jet streams shift away from the sub-tropical zone where hurricanes form, the storms may become more powerful and frequent. Again, since the duration of the study is fairly short-term, scientists cannot say for certain that global warming is causing the change in the jet streams or that the change in their position will continue.

As more historical weather data becomes available to scientists, they will be able to establish a more reliable relationship between warming and storm severity and frequency. IEDRO works towards this goal every day as we collect and restore historical weather data to predict the weather stressors on structures and help populations prepare for a changing climate.

Carnegie Institution (2008, April 17). Jet Streams Are Shifting and May Alter Paths of Storms and Hurricanes. Science Daily. Retrieved November 17, 2009, from http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/04/080416153558.htm

NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (2007, August 31). Global Warming Will Bring Violent Storms and Tornadoes, NASA Predicts. Science Daily. Retrieved November 17, 2009, from http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/08/070830105911.htm

NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory (2008, December 28). NASA Study Links Severe Storm Increases, Global Warming. Science Daily. Retrieved November 17, 2009, from http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081227214927.htm

Pearce, Jenny. “Central America after Hurricane Mitch.” Regional Surveys of the World: South America, Central America and the Caribbean 2002. Ed. Jacqueline West. London: Europa, 2001. 41-44.

IEDRO’s Trip to El SalvadorIEDRO represented itself well in El Salvador the week before Thanksgiving. Our Executive Director, Rick Crouthamel, accompanied by our Technical Manager, Larry Nicodemus, and new, multi-lingual volunteer, Marina Drazba, traveled to the offices of the El Salvador National Meteorological Service (SNMS) in the capital city of San Salvador.

Torrential downpours hit El Salvador the week before our visit; setting off massive landslides and killing over 200 people. El Salvador lies in the tropics, about thirteen degrees north latitude, and is a land of volcanoes and mountainous terrain. The poorest families construct shanties in these steep slopes while trying to manage a living. When the rains come, there is nowhere for them to run.

To perform data rescue and digitization, IEDRO is receiving funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). IEDRO’s staff visited the SNMS site to begin rescuing and digitizing thousands of historic hydrometeorological records taken over the last 100 years. Lic. Luis Guirola, SNMS Director, will instruct his staff to digitally photograph each piece of historic data within their two warehouses. Once captured and uploaded into NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), data from this site will be used by computer forecast models to improve flood and mudslide warning capabilities in El Salvador, thus saving hundreds of lives every year.

Once the photos are taken and an inventory is constructed, the SNMS will send its images to IEDRO for quality checking. The images that IEDRO determines flawless will be sent on to NOAA’s NCDC in Asheville, North Carolina, for digitization.

IEDRO is looking for volunteers for this project. IEDRO works towards this goal every day as we collect and input historical weather data into a database that is accessible to scientists worldwide. In this way we help to predict weather stressors on structures and, thus, help populations to build structures capable of withstanding predictable stressors.

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Just before 0000 and 1200 Universal Coordinated Time, every day of the year balloons are released from upper-air observation stations around the world. An instrument package suspended about 25 meters below the balloon contains sensors to measure temperature, humidity, and pressure. Data from these sensors transmit immediately to the ground station by a radio transmitter located within the instrument package powered by a small battery. The entire assembly of balloon and instrument package is called a radiosonde.

In earlier systems, ground-based radio direction-finding antenna equipment tracked the radiosonde’s ascent. The direction of the radiosonde from the launch station, in combination with an assumed ascent rate, calculated wind speed and its direction at various levels. In recent years radiosondes have been fitted with GPS units that permit winds to be calculated directly.

A typical radiosonde flight lasts about 90 minutes. During that time the average radiosonde ascends to about 100,000 feet. If strong winds exist, it can drift more than 150 miles downstream. During the flight, the radiosonde typically experiences temperatures near minus 60 degrees Centigrade. By the time the flight ends, the atmospheric pressure reaches about 1/100th of that at sea level.

When released, the balloon is about 4 feet in diameter. Owing to the decreasing pressure as it rises, the balloon expands to a diameter of 20 to 25 feet before it bursts. A small, orange-colored parachute slows its descent back to Earth; this reduces the danger to lives and property.

Worldwide, there are approximately 800 upper-air observation stations; not all following a regular launch schedule. The launching station interprets the data from the radiosonde and codes according to an internationally agreed-upon format. The coded data then gets entered into a worldwide communications

network made available to weather forecast centers around the world.

The main use of radiosonde data aims to establish a set of initial conditions for computer-based weather prediction models. They serve other purposes, however, including:

•Local severe storm forecasting•Weather and climate change research•Air pollution prediction•Provision of a reliable standard for testing and evaluation of various types of remote sensors, especially those mounted on satellites

Measurements of the upper atmosphere by balloon began by 1900. In those earlier days radio

transmitters did not exist and the measurements were recorded onboard. Retrieval and analysis of the data depended upon someone finding the instrument package. Even though only a small percentage of the packages were retrieved, the recovered information provided an important insight into the structure of the atmosphere.

Around 1940, improvements in radio transmission technology permitted the packages to transmit data back to Earth in real time. Shortly thereafter, the modern-day upper-air network evolved. In recent years, satellites have taken an increasing role in providing upper-air data for weather prediction models and weather forecasting; but the radiosonde continues to be the only instrument that can provide a complete profile of the atmosphere, and the only one that can provide measurements in the Polar Regions.

Radiosonde data that are sent to the NOAA’s NCDC are held in archives. Current and past radiosonde data from around the world can be found in both text and graphical formats at http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html.

Methods of Weather Data Collection: Radiosonde

“A typical radiosonde flight lasts about 90

minutes. During that time the average radiosonde ascends to about 100,000 feet.”


All of the buildings on the planet are susceptible to weather conditions and natural disasters. Through research and development, architects and civil engineers strive to build structures that can withstand nature’s course, keeping life and property safe. Wind is a major issue of concern when erecting most structures. High-rise buildings are particularly vulnerable to strong winds, especially at the higher levels since wind speed tends to increase with height.

All office buildings can be designed, constructed and maintained to avoid wind damage (other than that associated with tornadoes). In tornado-prone regions, consideration can be given to designing and constructing portions of office buildings to provide occupant protection. [2]

It is extremely important that our structures be protected from natural disasters commonly fueled by winds, such as tornadoes, typhoons, and hurricanes. Through the use of wind tunnels, engineers can test if a building will withstand extreme weather.

Wind engineering helps to identify the sometimes dangerous vortexes created by the shape and edges of a building. In many cases, a slight alteration to the design of the building can make all the difference to the movement of the building and the structural integrity during high winds. Dr. Nicholas Isyumov, a wind consultant, stated “All structures move in the wind; the question is the amount of motion. As buildings become taller and more slender, the motion becomes greater.” Tall buildings are less stable at the top, and wind speeds tend to fester with height. [3] Accurate forecasts can give engineers and architects needed information when designing and even retrofitting structures. If violent storms occur in an area every ten years, it takes at least 100 years worth of weather data for a pattern to emerge. For this reason, historic weather data is a key resource that designers and engineers need to prepare for wind speeds and other stressors that might challenge a building.

Building Safe High Rises

[1]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/high_winds.shtml[2]http://www.wbdg.org/resources/env_wind.php[3] http://erealestateexec.com/vertical_update/shape_shifters.php

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Many people think of weather as simply “hot and sticky” or “breezy” or some other descriptive term. These descriptions are usually enough to satisfy our immediate needs unless outdoor activities require more detail. Little do we consider the skies a few feet above our heads, so it is likely a bit of a surprise to hear that an organization studies the weather in great detail. Mega detail!

Such is the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC—a part of the NOAA). Among the weather statistics that they collect and make available to anyone interested in such details are charts, maps, photos and figures of air movements anywhere from a few feet above the ground to the highest levels of our atmosphere. Measurements taken from hundreds to thousands of feet aloft–termed upper-air data—are gathered by a variety of methods including balloons rockets, and stationary measuring devices.

After being collected, the information is compiled and archived into meterological data collections and made publicly available via the web and as printed documents to all who have a need or interest in such information. The range and scope of information that is available is truly impressive. There seems no end to the national as well as global data that can be gathered either about current or historic conditions.

Here’s a small sample of the information available—such as maps of global rainfall for a particular day or a view of a segment of cloud cover at a particular moment.

Perhaps you have need of an “integrated global radiosonde archive” file covering a 60-year period. Well, it is collected for you and ready for your request.

This is truly an awesome collection of climactic data. Check it out at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/upperair.html—it will surely blow you away.

AboutWeather Data

IEDRO’s Weather Data Search Service“The furtner back you look, the further forward you can see.”-- Winston Churchill

Need weather data for your project? IEDRO will perform a search for anominal donation. We perform a search using the National ClimaticData Center’s database. All donations received will directly supportdata rescue and digitization that IEDRO does in developing countries.To initiate a search, provide the following information:

1. A brief description of the project.2. The geographic area for which data is needed, i.e., country orregional name.3. The specific meteorological elements required and time frame(hourly, synoptic, daily, monthly)

Send your request to: [email protected]

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In 1879, the Tay Bridge was the longest bridge in the world, spanning two miles across the Tay estuary in southeastern Scotland. On the evening of December 28, 1879, the central spans of the Tay Bridge collapsed during a violent storm while an express passenger train from Edinburgh was making its way across. Winds estimated to be of gale force 10 to 11 (approx. 65mph) were blowing down the river Tay estuary toward the sea, at right angles to the bridge. As the train passed over the central spans, the towers in the high girders collapsed progressively and the train along with the support beams tumbled into the icy cold river leaving nothing but the bottom of the pylons protruding out of the water. The River Tay is known for its strong undercurrents and there was no chance to escape the perilous water once the train plummeted off the bridge. The resulting accident claimed the lives of all 75 passengers on board and is still regarded as the worst British engineering disaster.

Recent theories regarding the collapse suggest that the bridge was not designed to withstand the strong winds along with the weight of the train. The designer of the bridge, Sir Thomas Bouch, underestimated the intensity of the wind pressure and overestimated the strength of the structural system. The collapse of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge in the United States changed bridge construction forever. The Tacoma when built in July 1940, was the third-

longest suspension bridge in the world; with a central span of 2,800 feet. The other two bridges that were longer were the George Washington and Golden Gate. The bridge was known for its tendency to sway in windstorms and thus gained the nickname “Galloping Gertie.” On the morning of November 7, 1940, the bridge collapsed in a wind of 42 mph—even though the structure was designed to withstand winds of up to 120 mph. The bridge had been a victim of flutter, which was caused by the inadequate torsional stiffness of the bridge deck.

The collapse of the bridge didn’t endanger any lives but it became a great American saga. The failure came as a shock to the engineering community. They contemplated what might have caused a great span, more than half a mile in length and weighing tens of thousands of tons, spring to life in a relatively light wind. When Tacoma Bridge splashed into Puget Sound, it created ripple effects across the nation and around the world. The failure of the Tacoma Bridge led to important changes in future bridge designs, constructions, and inspections. The event changed forever how engineers design suspension bridges. Gertie’s failure led to the safer suspension spans engineers use today.

In general, the primary cause of bridge failure is not sloppy maintenance or deviation from design standards; rather bridges fall down because extreme events are too much for them to bear. Designers and engineers still have much to learn about how exceptional stresses, and especially the interaction of exceptional stresses, can compromise a bridge’s integrity. The availability of historic weather data can help them prepare for climatic disasters. From historic weather records, engineers can anticipate extreme conditions and environmental stressors, thereby designing structures that can withstand loads and protect life and property for generations to come.

Building Safe Bridges

www.iedro.org6Nov/Dec 2009

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International Data Rescue NewsContributing Staff

Newsletter Managing EditorPennell Paugh

Graphic DesignersJane SuosPennell Paugh

InterpretersBrook NgoAura Lawson-AlonsoMiriam MunozVirginie Noel

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